snow_wizard Posted December 27, 2014 Report Share Posted December 27, 2014 Very impressive gradients through southern BC and northern WA on this run. Bellingham could get blasted with some strong winds. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Posted December 27, 2014 Report Share Posted December 27, 2014 There's going to be at least one lucky city up and down the I-5 corridor that will get some decent snow accumulations. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 27, 2014 Report Share Posted December 27, 2014 Looks like 850s drop to about -10 over the East Puget Sound lowlands. It looks like this will qualify as an Arctic outbreak. Another thing to bear in mind is it's obvious the GFS has picked on something new on this run, since the trough digs a bit further west. Still time for it to improve even more. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted December 27, 2014 Report Share Posted December 27, 2014 Had to update map... grabbed 12 hour precip on 12Z run. Still not bad.That's an impressive improvement. It will be interesting to see if the increase in moisture translates to the WRF. I still think this has potential to be similar to 11/29. Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted December 27, 2014 Report Share Posted December 27, 2014 Looks like 850s drop to about -10 over the East Puget Sound lowlands. It looks like this will qualify as an Arctic outbreak. There will be snow from Portland to Mt. Vernon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bham_Guy Posted December 27, 2014 Report Share Posted December 27, 2014 Very impressive gradients through southern BC and northern WA on this run. Bellingham could get blasted with some strong winds. I'd be pretty happy to see even a half inch, even if it does blow away a few hours later. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaya Posted December 27, 2014 Report Share Posted December 27, 2014 HR 60 Op It could just be me, but appears block is tilting more into Yukon The block tilting toward Yukon will spill more cold air just off shore and give some low development. The various models pick up on this type of feature but typically mishandle the amount of development that can take place. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Posted December 27, 2014 Report Share Posted December 27, 2014 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 27, 2014 Report Share Posted December 27, 2014 The block tilting toward Yukon will spill more cold air just off shore and give some low development. The various models pick up on this type of feature but typically mishandle the amount of development that can take place.Exactly Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaya Posted December 27, 2014 Report Share Posted December 27, 2014 There will be snow from Portland to Mt. Vernon. Probably not a lot...but an inch or so isn't out of the question. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaya Posted December 27, 2014 Report Share Posted December 27, 2014 I'd be pretty happy to see even a half inch, even if it does blow away a few hours later.Looking at the gradients, any snow you get will be between Bellingham and Orcas Island in the Salish sea. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted December 27, 2014 Report Share Posted December 27, 2014 Probably not a lot...but an inch or so isn't out of the question. Won't take much to shut down Seattle. I really want Monday off work. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaya Posted December 27, 2014 Report Share Posted December 27, 2014 Did you mean 0z? I see it is a hair further west. Any little difference could be a big deal. At first I thought the chances were slim for snow with the initial cold shot, but now it appears there is a chance.Very small differences in the over water trajectory will impact low development and the strength of any arctic front in the interior. No one should hold out hope...no mater what the models look like, until the event is nearly underway. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaya Posted December 27, 2014 Report Share Posted December 27, 2014 Won't take much to shut down Seattle. I really want Monday off work. Well, I don't know about shutting Seattle down with an inch - unless people decide to start driving in normal Seattle fashion. But then you can do that with a light drizzle around here. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 27, 2014 Report Share Posted December 27, 2014 Uh oh .... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014122700/gfs_z500a_namer_26.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaya Posted December 27, 2014 Report Share Posted December 27, 2014 The Der Niederschlag is the most important chart I've seen today! http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Seattle_USA_ens.png. All cold and tight in the short term (don't worry about the long term -- too far out especially for the operational dumb-down GFS beyond 192. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Winterdog Posted December 27, 2014 Report Share Posted December 27, 2014 Won't take much to shut down Seattle. I really want Monday off work. You must be a school teacher. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 27, 2014 Report Share Posted December 27, 2014 Parallel has the Desert SW low ejecting much faster to the east Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaya Posted December 27, 2014 Report Share Posted December 27, 2014 Uh oh .... Certainly a plausible solution as the ridge tries to retrograde and pinch off. The parallel run does not do this: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfsp®ion=namer&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2014122700&fh=120but seems to lose some southward punch of the short wave...and that would track energy eastward along the Canadian border and keep things mild and onshore in the PNW. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted December 27, 2014 Report Share Posted December 27, 2014 You must be a school teacher.Pretty sure schools are all closed this week. Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 27, 2014 Report Share Posted December 27, 2014 HR 168 Parallel ... Not happening guys http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014122700/gfsp_z500a_namer_29.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaya Posted December 27, 2014 Report Share Posted December 27, 2014 Second cold shot is not a lock...http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfsp®ion=namer&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2014122700&fh=150&xpos=0&ypos=0. But, at least we are looking at another arctic in the short term and had something in November. Two in a year with a neutral-warm ENSO isn't bad. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard mann Posted December 27, 2014 Report Share Posted December 27, 2014 Uh oh .... http://www.tropicalt...0a namer 26.png .. I'd say, not all that likely, with the more over-all propensity of cold movement through 'til then. — As I see things, slowing east while still being in general regress more northward until about then. Leastwise the bite more SW with looking at cold's more over-all recession. While where looking at the the main gut of more primary cold air mass (depicted.) still north, it's likely not moving that far east at least quite so soon. Quote --- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Winterdog Posted December 27, 2014 Report Share Posted December 27, 2014 Pretty sure schools are all closed this week.That's right! I sure should have known that with all the kids around this week. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Winterdog Posted December 27, 2014 Report Share Posted December 27, 2014 The reload seems to have stalled just after hour 168 on the GFS normal. Much better on the Para. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted December 27, 2014 Report Share Posted December 27, 2014 That's an impressive improvement. It will be interesting to see if the increase in moisture translates to the WRF. I still think this has potential to be similar to 11/29.nope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
epiceast Posted December 27, 2014 Report Share Posted December 27, 2014 the WRF does show basin floor accumulations Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 27, 2014 Report Share Posted December 27, 2014 HR 222 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014122700/gfsp_mslp_wind_wus_38.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014122700/gfsp_mslp_wind_namer_38.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted December 27, 2014 Report Share Posted December 27, 2014 You must be a school teacher. Nah. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 27, 2014 Report Share Posted December 27, 2014 the WRF does show basin floor accumulations Total snow from now until Monday afternoon per 00Z WRF... this maps seems to actually know where the mountains are located! http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_gfs/images_d3/snow72.72.0000.gif Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
epiceast Posted December 27, 2014 Report Share Posted December 27, 2014 Total snow from now until Monday afternoon per 00Z WRF... this maps seems to actually know where the mountains are located! http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_gfs/images_d3/snow72.72.0000.gifA solid 1/2" is better than none! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Winterdog Posted December 27, 2014 Report Share Posted December 27, 2014 Total snow from now until Monday afternoon per 00Z WRF... this maps seems to actually know where the mountains are located!Thanks for that little cheering up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 27, 2014 Report Share Posted December 27, 2014 I think for Seattle this one has the possibility of failing to produce snow and also failing to deliver a high below freezing given the sunshine this week. Seriously doubting any meaningful second shot. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 27, 2014 Report Share Posted December 27, 2014 How do you tell the difference between an actual warning shot and a shot by someone/something with really bad aim? Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 27, 2014 Report Share Posted December 27, 2014 Your left butt cheek and Snow's gut should have a conversation.LOL Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 27, 2014 Report Share Posted December 27, 2014 HR 84 GEM for PDX is colder than any other model http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2014122700/gem_T850_nwus_15.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 27, 2014 Report Share Posted December 27, 2014 I think for Seattle this one has the possibility of failing to produce snow and also failing to deliver a high below freezing given the sunshine this week. Seriously doubting any meaningful second shot.Between this post and your avatar, this was just a double dose of sadness! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 27, 2014 Report Share Posted December 27, 2014 Digs trough further west than GFS http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2014122700/gem_z500_vort_nwus_13.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted December 27, 2014 Report Share Posted December 27, 2014 I think for Seattle this one has the possibility of failing to produce snow and also failing to deliver a high below freezing given the sunshine this week. Seriously doubting any meaningful second shot.Well, last time you wrote off the models turning cold, things improved within 12 hours. Thanks 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted December 27, 2014 Report Share Posted December 27, 2014 Digs trough further west than GFS http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2014122700/gem_z500_vort_nwus_13.png Not a good trajectory for myself and others up north unfortunately. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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