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Super Bowl Weekend Multiple Waves


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My grids sound pretty bullish now 

Saturday
Snow, mainly before noon. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 13. North wind 9 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.
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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   

2018-19: 55.5"   

2019-20: 17.6"   

2020-21: 49.4" (so far)

Average: 25.9"

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Probably 1.5 to 2" of squeaky cotton. 6F and the sounds and sights are surely a winter lovers delight!!!

One of our church lot piles. These are everywhere around town. Some even higher. Oh, it is snowing again. 

I just measured 6.3”” and it’s still snowing. There is quite a bit of blowing so might be off a little. Have heard reports of 6-7” from North Platte and East of there to the southeast towards Central

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Just now, bud2380 said:

Central NE sure looks to be in the sweet spot.  I hope you guys score big on this.  What a fun setup.  

Thanks.  Someone is going to get a lot.  All depends on where the band sets up in the storms.  Could be some winners and losers for sure, but at least most should get a decent amount.

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7 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

12z UKIE 10:1 ratio through 102 hours.  NWS says ratios 15:1 to 17:1

12z UKIE.png

lol...the Ukie has a little omega block over me...😁

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  • 20-21 snowfalls >=3": (Jan 1 - 4.5"); Season total (12.4")
  • 20-21 monthly: Oct (0.6"); Nov (Trace); Dec (Trace); Jan (7.6"); Feb (4.2"); Mar (Trace) as of 3/17
  • 20-21 temps: Oct(-3.2); Nov (+4.8); Dec (+4.5); Jan (+5.1); Feb (-11.3); Mar (+7.5) as of 3/17
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Dmx ratio is 24:1. .21qpf = 5.2 Kuchera at 72 hrs on Buds map. That's nuts.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Interesting that the HRRR continues to pile up snow in Iowa tomorrow.  Not sure I buy it.  This range isn't the HRRR strong suit.  It usually does much better within 12-24 hours.  Maybe if it still shows it on the 00z run I'll buy in a little more.  

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Season Snowfall: 39.5"

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Part of the CWA was upgraded to a warning. Hopefully a sign of things to come! 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Hastings NE
244 PM CST Fri Feb 5 2021

...Accumulating snow expected tonight into Saturday Morning...

NEZ046>048-061>064-075>077-061200-
/O.UPG.KGID.WW.Y.0006.210206T0400Z-210206T1800Z/
/O.NEW.KGID.WS.W.0002.210206T0400Z-210206T1800Z/
Sherman-Howard-Merrick-Buffalo-Hall-Hamilton-York-Adams-Clay-
Fillmore-
Including the cities of Loup City, Sherman Reservoir, Litchfield,
St. Libory, Central City, Kearney, Grand Island, Aurora, York,
Hastings, Sutton, Harvard, Clay Center, Edgar, Fairfield, Geneva,
Exeter, and Fairmont
244 PM CST Fri Feb 5 2021

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON
CST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 7
  inches. This is expected to be a fluffy snow, accompanied by
  wind gusts of 20-25 mph. Blowing snow will be a concern at
  times.

* WHERE...Portions of central, east central and south central
  Nebraska.

* WHEN...From 10 PM this evening to noon CST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Patchy blowing snow
  could significantly reduce visibility.
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Point forecast says 1-3" tomorrow.  That's more than they forecast for yesterday's blizzard which dropped 4-5".  Still shaking my head at that NWS forecast. 

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Season Snowfall: 39.5"

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Very detailed explanation from NOAA in regards to the weekend snow.......

Models show a primary lobe of planetary vorticity swinging into
the western Great Lakes Saturday evening. Absolute vorticity charts
do qualitatively show a very good setup with shortwave energy
digging right into Lower Michigan. The most uncertain aspect of the
Saturday evening forecast centers on the integrity of a low to
midlevel thetae axis as its forecasted to be directed right into
southeast Michigan. If this feature is in fact coherent, moisture
and saturation will be very good for system relative isentropic
ascent to act upon to generate snow. One can go hunting and find
some solutions that are quite bullish on QPF with perhaps a 0.25
inch or more. In contrast, the ECMWF (including the d(prog)/dt of
ECMWF), virtual all of the 5.00Z EPS, and the RGEM are extremely
lean on QPF amounts. There are both good things and bad things about
the setup. The good...1. Potential for an outstanding frontal
surface at 7.5 kft agl (750mb) with very low static stability above
it. 2. Very good microphysics potential with crosshairs through the
DGZ and cold near surface profile. Liquid to snow ratios could be
north of 15:1. The not-so good...1. Less than spectacular, broad and
diffuse upper level jet dynamics. 2. An attendant shortwave that
passes through Arkansas/Tennessee. What this does to the
aforementioned thetae ribbon of interest is uncertain. 3. System
relative flow trajectories do remain veered.  Bottom line is the
potential exists for an accumulating snow event Saturday evening. A
lot of uncertainty from the authors perspective on how this will go.
If the moisture verifies could see a quick hitting overachiever, if
the moisture does not make it here then could see lackluster snow.
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Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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My afternoon AFD

Key messages:

- Light snow is expected to overspread the region from NW to SE
  tomorrow morning and persist through the late afternoon or
  evening hours.

- Several weaker systems will bring additional rounds of light
  snow to the area Sunday and Monday.

- A long duration and dangerously cold stretch of weather will
  commence Saturday. Temperatures may not climb back above
  freezing until the middle of not next week, but the following
  week.

Detailed discussion...

Water vapor imagery shows multiple embedded shortwaves within the
upper flow. One, located over Idaho/Wyoming/Utah will continue to
dive southeast and pass mostly to our south. Another wave appears to
be moving along the Canadian Rockies, diving southeast as well. The
bulk of this wave may pass to our north but the combined vorticity
advection and strong ascent between the two waves will help develop
an area of snow over central to western Nebraska that tracks to the
southeast through our area. This will bring a quick but somewhat
intense period of snowfall to the region. Snow is expected to spread
into NW Missouri around sunrise and then spread across the rest of
the forecast area through the morning hours. The main change with
this forecast package was to increase snow-to-liquid water ratios.
Increasing SLR into the upper teens across northern Missouri brought
snow totals into the 3-5 inch range there with generally 1 to 3 inch
amounts elsewhere. It`s possible ratios could be higher, in the 20
to 25 range, as forecast soundings show the dendritic growth
region from the surface to about 15000 ft AGL. This would increase
snow amounts, especially for northern Missouri. Regardless, given
forecasted snowfall amounts, have issued winter weather advisory
for the entire forecast area with the northwestern portion
segmented to mention the 3-5" amounts. Snow will quickly end from
west to east as the upper shortwave moves by and the associated
ascent wanes.

Several other embedded shortwaves will quickly move through the
upper flow. The first wave moves through Sunday, bringing light snow
to mainly the northern tier or two of counties in the forecast area.
Amounts look less than an inch but with high snow-to-liquid water
ratios, wouldn`t be surprised if some area sees more. A similar
scenario plays out Monday though it looks to affect the entire
forecast area. Snow amounts again look to be less than an inch but
with high ratios, there could be some higher amounts.

The bigger and likely more dangerous aspect with this forecast is
the start of a prolonged and dangerously cold run of temperatures.
The coldest stretch of time looks like next work week where highs
are expected to only be in the teens across the area. The coldest
part of that stretch looks like Thursday into Friday with highs in
the low teens for the KC area and single digits above zero across
northern Missouri. Low temperatures next Friday morning look below
zero for the entire forecast area with minus teens possible in
northern MO. Looking at long range temperature anomaly plots, it may
not be until the middle of the week after next week that we warm
back up above freezing. It`s likely that wind chill advisories or
warnings will be needed at some point or multiple points next
week.

 

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1 minute ago, bud2380 said:

The difference on Kuchera between Pivotal and WxBell is very substantial.

 

snku_acc.us_c.png

I like pivotal better but just wanted to show the whole area.  WxBell is really cranking it up most likely to much.

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21Z RAP through 51 hours- it's amazing how these long range CAM's dry up as you get closer to the event. Almost always.  Oh well, it's better than nothing. snku_acc.conus.png

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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🤞

2 hours ago, Clinton said:

WWA issued here.  Might as well just keep it going all week.

Congrats ...hope you get some appreciable snows.

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Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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