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February 2021 Homelessness-Eradicating, Blessed Forecast Conest!


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Onboard, offboard, inboard, outboard or just bored, doesn’t matter.  Mask up, stay safe and let ‘er rip!

Wednesday 2/10 through Sunday 2/14.

KSEA/KPDX, though if you wanna add others feel free.

Highs, lows and total snowfall.

The winner gets 200 sanitized downvotes from Jesse, personally delivered in one of the 631 Mazda CX-5’s owned by various members.

Oh, and the deadline for entry is 11:59 p.m. on 2/8/2021.  Good luck everybody and bless you all!!!

 

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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SEA Thursday-Sunday

38/32

33/27

32/27

34/30

7 inches of snow spread out over Thursday-Sunday. 

Warm Season Stats

+80s-1

+85s-0

+90s-0

Monthly Rainfall-0.39”

Warm Season Rainfall-0.39”

Warmest high temp-80

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SEA: 4" of snow

2/10: 41/33

2/11: 39/32

2/12: 36/31

2/13: 34/30

2/14: 35/29

PDX: 5" of snow

2/10: 43/36

2/11: 41/35

2/12: 37/31

2/13: 33/29

2/14: 35/31

 

 

 

 

 

Everett Snowfall

 

2018-19: 24.75"

2019-20: 10.5"

 

1/10: 0.5"

1/12: 5.5"

1/13: 1"

1/14: 1.5"

1/15: 2"

 

 

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Okay, I'll bite. My comically-early 'cast:

 

Wednesday: Fraser outflow kicks in a few hours later than modeled. Like always. By the evening Seattle northward is cooling down enough for snow, but precip is slow to start, aside from Whatcom county and Port Angeles, maybe Skagit/Island counties. By midnight precip spreads south. Overall a nice, variable day for most areas. Nothing noteworthy in Oregon, aside from the building cold pool to the east, which will be undermodeled. Like always. Seattle 43/31, Portland 47/34, BLI 34/24.

Thursday: Fraser outflow takes hold in the morning hours, but precip is underwhelming. Gradients are increasing to the north as an Arctic front reaches the border and passes through customs very chilly in Whatcom county. Meanwhile, to the west, our looming storm drifts eastward as progged. It's making a bee-line for the southern Washington coast, advecting warm air northward past Portland and into the central sound. This WAA is met with a brick wall of an arctic front around Snohomish county, ultimately stalling there. Throughout the course of the afternoon. Precipitation builds in from the west, Cascade gap winds increase, causing damage in the foothills. Our stalled arctic front assimilates with the cooler air from the east as the low levels grow primed for a significant snow event. Precipitation starts out as rain south of Snohomish county, then transitions to snow from north to south/east to west throughout the day. Portland transitions after midnight, while Seattle transitions around dusk. Seattle 38/31, Portland 41/38, BLI 29/15.

Friday: Precip slowly ends as a break between storms ushers in a moment of peace. Arctic air, instead of being pushed out, is reinforced behind the low. Gradients become prominently easterly, and damaging gusts continue wreak havoc in the foothills of Washington and Oregon. It's a chilly day north of Salem, with highs struggling to reach freezing under a steady easterly breeze, though the strengthening mid-February sun prevents many from staying below Freezing, even despite the cloudcover. The following night, temperatures drop as much as they reasonably can with an incoming Pacific storm, which as it turns out, is quite a bit, especially in outlying areas. Seattle: 34/26, 2", Portland: 38 at midnight -> 30 in the afternoon/24, 1.5", ice to the SW, BLI: 28/11, 0".

Saturday: Gradients relax a bit, but remain steady enough to prevent a changeover as another broad system approaches from the west. Snowfall occurs for everyone from Portland to Vancouver as a weak front makes landfall in the late morning hours. Beautiful daytime snow flutters towards the ground. Some areas, especially near the metro and at sea level, do warm a touch above freezing, but the column still supports accumulating snow. A solid plume of moisture interacts favorably with ongoing Fraser outflow in the northern counties. Seattle: 35/28, 1.5", Portland: 33/30, 1", BLI: 29/25, 4".

Sunday: For the first time in a few days, Pacific air is advected eastward into the metro areas, save for Portland where the Columbia basin cold pool extends into the Willamette valley. A nice, sunny, but albeit melty day occurs, with chilly westerlies bringing the freezing level to 800-1000'. The following night, under a still mostly intact snowpack, clear sky, and light gradients, temperatures plummet to the lowest they will go for the metro areas during the snap. Seattle: 37/23, Portland: 33/19, BLI: 34/14.

Monday: Transition time! Clouds thicken throughout the day as a milder system approaches from the west. Gradients once again spike easterly, allowing for several 10am highs to take place west of the Cascades. The afternoon is marked by patches of snow, easterly breezes and a flat, gray sky. It feels like snow. After dark, bands of precipitation push onshore, initially falling as virga, then as snowfall as a deep cold pool is slowly eroded. It takes hours but, the pacific finally wins by dusk next day after a very decent transitioning event. Tuesday is a gray, chilly day with temperatures in the thirties, so there's no point in going into that. Seattle: 37/29, 3", Portland: 34/28, 2.5", BLI: 31/25, 3.5".

That was fun to write.

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LATE FORECAST - WILL NOT BE COUNTED PER OFFICIAL RULES

PDX:

2/10: 48/31

2/11: 42/32

2/12: 46/29

2/13: 41/35

Trace of sleet, 0.1" of ice early on Friday before the Pacific zap. Trace of snow on Saturday in the Pacific backwash.

 

SEA:

2/10: 44/30

2/11: 37/25

2/12: 33/26

2/13: 38/28

8.5" of snow. 6" on Thursday, 2" on Friday, 0.5" on Saturday.

Bigger southerly surge on Sunday south of Whatcom County.

 

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