January 2015 Observations for the Pacific Northwest

[Deweydog]

Then best for you to not even bring it up unless it looks promising for the west side.

He's starved for a fix. Don't enable.

[Phil]

Then best for you to not even bring it up unless it looks promising for the west side.

Huh? There's a consensus for an upcoming poleward mass displacement (blocking) event. Exactly where the cold goes won't be settled for another 7-10 days.

 

So, yes, there's every reason to bring it up.

[Phil]

He's starved for a fix. Don't enable.

Do you ever pay attention? To anything?

[GHweatherChris]

He's starved for a fix. Don't enable.

Your right.  Sorry, I didn't mean to.

[Deweydog]

Do you ever pay attention? To anything?

Yes?

[Phil]

Yes?

Then please try and act like it? I'm relaying meteorological data and trying to interpret it as best as I can. I'm not "looking for a fix".

 

Totally rude.

[GHweatherChris]

Bursts of heavy rain occurring over the last half hour or so here.

 

I was up near Seabeck this morning for work and there was a bit of snow mixed in with the rain for a bit as well.

[ShawniganLake]

Huh? There's a consensus for an upcoming poleward mass displacement (blocking) event. Exactly where the cold goes won't be settled for another 7-10 days.

 

So, yes, there's every reason to bring it up.

You probably had to know that someone was going to take a dislike to you're posting something that basically shows the likelihood of a continuing warm west / cold east theme.  It was pretty much a foregone conclusion.  Personally, I wouldn't be surprised if we got in on some of it as well, but odds are probably not in our favor. 

[Phil]

You probably had to know that someone was going to take a dislike to you're posting something that basically shows the likelihood of a continuing warm west / cold east theme. It was pretty much a foregone conclusion. Personally, I wouldn't be surprised if we got in on some of it as well, but odds are probably not in our favor.

I'm not sure where the core of the cold will go. You're always in the game when you've got +2SD eddy heat flux and WPAC forcing.

 

That's nothing to troll over..

[richard mann]

The PDO will remain positive for most (if not all) of 2015..

 

Of course it will. And we all know why.

[Parksvillewx]

Winter cancel according to Cliff Mass' new blog post..

 

http://cliffmass.blogspot.ca/2015/01/will-snow-return-to-pacific-northwest.html

[VancouverIslandSouth]

This is somewhat interesting; the ECMWF picked up on something similar awhile ago then dropped it. Looks like it's back, albeit, weaker. Beats being under the ridge.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015011600/gfs_z500_mslp_namer_11.png

 

Could be worse at hr 240, I like the way the gradients are setting up there, also given the 12Z Euro was so dramatically different it shows the pattern end of month is far from settled:

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015011600/gfs_z500_mslp_namer_41.png

[bainbridgekid]

At least some slightly interesting weather today.

 

Went from 30 degrees with thick frost at 8 AM to heavy rain at 2 PM here.

 

And now it's 25 degrees and dumping snow at Snoqualmie Pass.

[HighlandExperience]

Washington Cascades getting blasted tonight. Snow is quite a bit heavier at Snoqualmie than I expected. 

 

http://images.wsdot.wa.gov/sc/090VC05200.jpg?1421385935942

 

http://images.wsdot.wa.gov/us2/stvldg/sumtwest.jpg

 

Leavenworth is looking snowy as well

 

http://images.wsdot.wa.gov/US2/Leavenworth/9thEvans/9thEvans.jpg

[epiceast]

Monday storms also looks better for snow

[bainbridgekid]

Monday storms also looks better for snow

The models trended much better for tonight's mountain snow over the last few days. Much more moisture and lower snow levels.

 

A few days ago the WRF was showing just a couple inches for Snoqualmie Pass and now it looks like they could get close to a foot tonight.

 

Same thing might be happening for Sunday-Monday.

[stuffradio]

Euro weeklies seem to be mostly a +EPO. Nothing ever good comes from +EPO for us.

[epiceast]

The models trended much better for tonight's mountain snow over the last few days.

 

A few days ago the WRF was showing just a couple inches for Snoqualmie Pass and now it looks like they could get close to a foot.

Yea I noticed that too, but I have a meadows pass this year, I guess I should change my location too.

[Dan the Weatherman]

Interesting times coming up over the next 3-4 weeks..strat PV displacement into Asia, wave-1 transfer w/ Greenland Anticyclone. Potential for big time cold/snow over much of the US starting in late January.

That probably means that the West Coast including CA gets jack squat!

[stuffradio]

That probably means that the West Coast including CA gets jack squat!

The Euro weeklies had a very deep trough in SW CA in 12 days if I remember correctly.

[Dan the Weatherman]

ECMWF weeklies are almost incomprehensibly frigid for the US during week 2..wow

That means the West Coast will be warmer than average!

[Deweydog]

If you ignore the cut off low off the California coast, hour 384 is an absolutely classic retrogression set up.

 

#20dayGFS!

[Dan the Weatherman]

The Euro weeklies had a very deep trough in SW CA in 12 days if I remember correctly.

I would hope that something like that would verify to bring the Sierras some much-needed snow.

[Kayla]

If you ignore the cut off low off the California coast, hour 384 is an absolutely classic retrogression set up.

 

#20dayGFS!

Yeah, too bad the details at hour 384 are just not there for us once again...sigh. Onto the 06z...

[richard mann]

(.. cross-reference.)
 
http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/735-early-winter-2014-15-colder-air-mass-movement-and-distribution-projections/?p=63659

[VancouverIslandSouth]

The 0Z progression doesn't look too bad; keep a lid on the PNA ridging until the Aleutian low weakens later in the month and we may yet see some snow. It's not all that different from what the previous GFS runs have shown in the 10-15 day range with ridging progressing into the Bering Sea. Yet very different from what the last few ECMWF runs have shown, with ridging amplifying up the coast toward day 10; if that happens we can say goodbye to any chance at snow/Arctic air for at least another 2 weeks. If the GFS wins out we may yet have another window of opportunity end of month.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015011600/gfs_T850_namer_53.png

[Front Ranger]

Not sure why you left out years like 1923, 1926, 1934, and 1936. The fall PDO doesn't exactly portend how likable the winter will be for us. It was only in 2012 when we were getting historically -PDO in September. Didn't help us.

 

Because the PDO measurements prior to 1950 are less reliable.

[Front Ranger]

The PDO will remain positive for most (if not all) of 2015..

 

If it drops to +1 in Feb, that will be a crash from where it's at now.

[richard mann]

The 0Z progression doesn't look too bad; keep a lid on the PNA ridging until the Aleutian low weakens later in the month and we may yet see some snow. It's not all that different from what the previous GFS runs have shown in the 10-15 day range with ridging progressing into the Bering Sea. Yet very different from what the last few ECMWF runs have shown, with ridging amplifying up the coast toward day 10; if that happens we can say goodbye to any chance at snow/Arctic air for at least another 2 weeks. If the GFS wins out we may yet have another window of opportunity end of month.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015011600/gfs_T850_namer_53.png

 

So are we looking at the .. new and improved version here in fact. ?  (Pardon my naivete. I don't check the models regularly.)  Certainly looks as if. 

 

Regarding your supposition more positive here above, otherwise. I agree. .. If with seeing perhaps even a bit more potential at that point than depicted here. 

[VancouverIslandSouth]

So are we looking at the .. new and improved version here in fact. ?  (Pardon my naivete. I don't check the models regularly.)  Certainly looks as if.

 

Yep, they switched over to the new version 2 days ago, no more "parallel GFS".

[richard mann]

More less just confirming. I hadn't seen anything posted generated by it to this point. 

[VancouverIslandSouth]

The 0Z ECMWF is already looking much worse than the GFS through hr 120, Aleutian low is sitting much further south and west.

[snow_wizard]

ECMWF weeklies are almost incomprehensibly frigid for the US during week 2..wow

 

Except the NW I suppose.

 

The GFS ensemble certainly shows heights going above normal over Alaska and the Aleutians, but it appears the details aren't right to bring major cold into the NW.

[Deweydog]

Except the NW I suppose.

 

The GFS ensemble certainly shows heights going above normal over Alaska and the Aleutians, but it appears the details aren't right to bring major cold into the NW.

Your pessimism is encouraging.

[snow_wizard]

The PDO will remain positive for most (if not all) of 2015..

 

I sure hope you're wrong.  That means more of the same old crap that we saw in 2014.

[snow_wizard]

Your pessimism is encouraging.

 

I suppose.  I can think a few times it finally delivered after I gave up.

[ShawniganLake]

I suppose.  I can think a few times it finally delivered after I gave up.

The 0z euro will quickly draw you back into your optimistic mood.

[ShawniganLake]

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF0.5_0z/f240.gif

[epiceast]

The Euro is dangling a big juicy carrot.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Strange progression on the 0Z ECMWF, it's dramatically different and better than the 12Z so that's a plus; still probably looking at a ridge that will eventually amplify too close to the coast for much fun; probably better that it hold off a bit longer before ampifying. The GFS has been a bit more consistent at day 10 so far so I'd give that outcome a bit more weight at the moment.