January 2015 Observations for the Pacific Northwest

[snow_wizard]

The Euro does go to show there is plenty of uncertainty right now.

[Deweydog]

Strange progression on the 0Z ECMWF, it's dramatically different and better than the 12Z so that's a plus; still probably looking at a ridge that will eventually amplify too close to the coast for much fun; probably better that it hold off a bit longer before ampifying. The GFS has been a bit more consistent at day 10 so far so I'd give that outcome a bit more weight at the moment.

What's strange about it? It's about as run-of-the-mill west coast retrogression as you can get.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

What's strange about it? It's about as run-of-the-mill west coast retrogression as you can get.

 

Sure once things fall into place, but that's a pretty quick transition to have the stars align and the 5-10 day is dramatically different from what was shown on the 12z starting from a pretty similar point. I suppose not out of the realm of possibilities but I don't see the Aleutian low budging that easily.

[BLI snowman]

Because the PDO measurements prior to 1950 are less reliable.

 

Okay. I'll be sure to file that one into my system....

[HighlandExperience]

The models trended much better for tonight's mountain snow over the last few days. Much more moisture and lower snow levels.

 

 

Yup. Still snowing pretty hard at Denny Creek right around 2K. 

[westiztehbest]

Getting snow at the moment.  3" looks reasonable overnight.  The GEM has consistently performed better with precip type compared to the GFS (even now).  The GFS had rain progged up until yesterday evening here.  I tend to keep a skeptical eye with it.  Perhaps when it gets the larger upgrade later this year I'll put more stock into it.  

 

Looks like we've got an upwelling kelvin wave progressing eastward now, which looks similar in timing to this time last year.  Perhaps early February will bring cold and snow chances to the westside lowlands.  The ECMWF weeklies certainly indicate it.  The CFS shows a raging hell torch.  *facepalm*  I hope the CFS gets some upgrades.

 

Edit:  

 

[snow_wizard]

Yup. Still snowing pretty hard at Denny Creek right around 2K. 

 

Yeah...this does have a bit different flavor to it than much of what we have seen this winter.  We have cold rain with a nice easterly breeze here.  Probably the second time I've seen it like this all season here so far.

[Deweydog]

Sure once things fall into place, but that's a pretty quick transition to have the stars align and the 5-10 day is dramatically different from what was shown on the 12z starting from a pretty similar point. I suppose not out of the realm of possibilities but I don't see the Aleutian low budging that easily.

Definitely not saying it's likely, in fact I highly doubt it is. But there are a laundry list of excellent analogs for that exact progression. As for the run to run volatility, we are talking about 7+ days here.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF was nice. It's a lock, no, it's better than a lock, it's deadbolted. Take that run, put it in the magic weather closet, then deadbolt it. Not just some cheap mere lock to which we place all of our fun cold, snowy hopes and dream of Weather on, nope. Let it out in 10 days. See what happens. I'm going to go out on a limb prior to the previous limb I was precariously perched on(No, not that limb, 2-3 limbs before) and say this is going to happen..... It's a lock. Watch for models in the coming days move towards this and drastic ensemble improvement.

[HighlandExperience]

Yeah...this does have a bit different flavor to it than much of what we have seen this winter.  We have cold rain with a nice easterly breeze here.  Probably the second time I've seen it like this all season here so far.

 

Refreshing for a change. 

[Sometimesdylan]

Nice to see the forum perk up a bit. Hope SOMEONE sees some cold coming up!

[richard mann]

-

.. The best that can be hoped for, as I see things, is an increase in and where looking at cold's more over-all force of movement—i.e. from wherever it's sitting, and where moving in whichever direction. 

 

And with this increase, the models working to adjust for it, and so showing us something better than they have been. ....

 

— I'm seeing, some potential for this idea. Even these ideas.

[Poulsbo Snowman]

I've been reading the forum for the past 2 days and just realized I just ate about 1/2 pound of cheese curds.

 

Ugh....

[Front Ranger]

Really nice to see the mountains finally getting a good dump, with more on the way soon. And the 0z Euro, though an outlier at this point, goes to show that there's no reason to put this winter to bed quite yet.

[stuffradio]

The Euro is dangling a big juicy carrot.

 

We're talking Nantes Carrots.

[ShawniganLake]

I think the 0z euro broke the tropicaltidbits website.

[Phil]

If it drops to +1 in Feb, that will be a crash from where it's at now.

Is that your prediction?

[BLI snowman]

I think the 0z euro broke the tropicaltidbits website.

 

It just can't handle those 530 thicknesses at 240 hours!

[ShawniganLake]

It just can't handle those 530 thicknesses at 240 hours!

Guess not 

[Phil]

I sure hope you're wrong. That means more of the same old crap that we saw in 2014.

I think we flip back sometime in 2016..the PDO always spikes during/just after solar max though, so it's expected.

 

It's going to be awhile before we see a -PDO of the magnitude we saw from 2010-2012. I'm targeting the early 2020s for several strong La Niñas and a deep -PDO/-AMO following major changes to the global circulations. That process should initiate in 2017, +/- 1yr, though.

[Phil]

Solar/PDO relationship can operate on a very high frequency:

 

#HadleyCells

 

http://catchmypicture.com/mMc488.jpg

[richard mann]

-

.. "on .. a very high frequency". 

 

— I'm sure you've meant something other here. 

 

.. As in, if taken more at face value, i.e. independently, as this reads, .. With what more in particular, used as a more general reference base. ?  .. Your "hashtag" attached, doesn't do much to help here. 

[Gradient Keeper]

In light of a spectacular 00z ECMWF run it's time to bring this back
[Model Countdown]
Next up....
6z GFS 39 minutes
12z GFS 6 hours 39 minutes
12z GEM 7 hours 59 minutes
12z ECMWF 9 hours 9 minutes

[Phil]

 

-

.. "on .. a very high frequency".

 

— I'm sure you've meant something other here.

High frequency = operating over shorter timespans

[richard mann]

Edit: .. Warning. Don't bother. Skip ahead.  @  This went "nowhere".  (Of comedic value at  best.)

High frequency =  ...  over shorter timespans

 
Actually not much help. What's the main hinge idea here. ? ... Fragmented phrases (equations.) don't always work to convey ideas.
 

Solar/PDO relationship can operate on a very high frequency:

.. Perhaps if you just spelled out your thinking here a bit more for me.

[Phil]

What's your question?

[richard mann]

.. What, have you said. (?) Pointed to, worked to have suggested .. here. (?)

Perhaps you could expand with respect to your thinking posted above.

[Phil]

High Solar --> Hadley Cells expand/migrate poleward --> AAM propagation/eddy flux response --> Walker Cell behavior altered --> SST tendencies change over time.

 

To elaborate on why the Hadley Cells respond this way (especially during -QBO): Increased solar forcing warms top of Hadley Cells and increases rate of O^3 photodissociation. Hence Hadley Cells expand/migrate poleward in conjunction w/ the resulting zone of mass transport (thermal wind laws).

[richard mann]

.. Don't bother. Skip ahead.

hmn. (?)
 
I'm not seeing anything here about the "relative similarity" (?) one to the other, where looking at the plotting of changes, PDO to "Solar". Or either, the "frequencies", of either or both, as set against whatever other more base reference.  
 
— What have you meant to show more specifically, with the chart that you've posted. ? .. What have you intended to convey with your original statement attached to it. ?

[Phil]

There's clearly a harmonic variance between solar forcing and the PDO on a multi-month resolution (obviously the PDO will lag solar forcing).

 

The PDO is influenced by more than just solar, too. You're never going to get a perfect signal..I'm not sure what more you were expecting to see?

[richard mann]

.. What do I do here. ?

 

— You're answering questions that I haven't posed. 

 

Edit: .. Warning. Don't bother. Skip ahead. 

[Phil]

I don't understand what you're asking me, then?

[Phil]

I'm not seeing anything here about the "relative similarity" (?) one to the other, where looking at the plotting of changes, PDO to "Solar". Or either, the "frequencies", of either or both, as set against whatever other more base reference.

Are you asking me why the solar/PDO connection exists? That's what I was trying to answer..solar forcing on the Hadley Cells/mass transport fields is responsible for the ENSO/PDO behavior.

[richard mann]

.. I think this may be because you've perhaps attached / attributed .. more to what I've either whether pointed to or asked. 

 

 

Perhaps a quick "glance" here.

[Phil]

Lol..let's try this again. What, specifically, are you asking me?

[richard mann]

Are you asking me why the Solar/PDO connection exists? That's what I was trying to answer.

 

No in fact. I had initially been pointing to the idea that the statement that you had attached to the chart that you'd posted above, had been unclear. This with your having perhaps left out some element/s of what you had perhaps intended to have said. "... operate .. on a[n] very high frequency". .. Perhaps you'd meant to say "similar", or "similarly high" .. frequency. (?)

 

 Don't bother. Skip ahead.

[Phil]

That was meant to convey the fact that solar forcing can affect the PDO very quickly (under the right conditions)..aka a "high frequency" relationship.

 

There is also a lower frequency relationship between the two, which in involves ENSO/global resonance(s), but that's another topic for another day.

[richard mann]

Edit: .. Warning. Don't bother. Skip ahead. 
 

.. As in "strong". ? 
 
— "Strong correlation". ? .. Demonstrable. 
 
.... As evidenced, by their highly similar plots where looking at the frequencies of, ect. .. ?
 
.. Beyond what I've suggested here above as perhaps being / having been, what you've worked to convey more, I really don't know (even. ?) what's being shown more specifically with / within the chart that you've tacked in above PDO / Solar wise, with the main incremental elements more left, not having been included.  PDO, maybe. But no reference as to the "Solar" idea. (frequency.)

[Phil]

.. As in "strong". ?

Not necessarily.."frequency" just refers to the relative timescale of operation in this case, not the strength of the forcing/relationship..

 

Long range forecasting is all about timescale(s), resonance(s), and interference(s)...

[richard mann]

Edit: .. Warning. Don't bother. Skip ahead.

.. I'd continued, with .."strong correlation". Add to this, ... where looking at and "considering" the "frequency" of each. / Both. .Be any of this as it may, your initial statement (suggestion. ?) above,"worked" to convey, very .. little. To me, certainly.  @
 
.. Hence my initial comment.

— With all of the "clarity" that you've provided since, my comment more at this point would be, more, ....

....... "Very.", .. "high".   (evidently.)
 

Long range forecasting is all about timescale(s), resonance(s), and interference(s)...

.. And to this above, .... "Apparently.".  

— Appreciated your Time.  (As it were.)