January 2015 Observations for the Pacific Northwest

[BLI snowman]

The statement was made that it's been a top-warm winter in the upper levels so far. January has been very warm, Nov/Dec not so much. 

 

At Paradise, 2004, 2002, 1989, 1976, and several other years were much warmer than Nov/Dec 2014.

 

No single January has been warmer than this month is on pace to be there. November through now is historically (I'd say top 10% of years there) warm. You can crunch the numbers if you'd like. It is what it is, dude. You just look silly trying to contest this.

[Deweydog]

I thought it was ironic that he chose to say that now, as 850 temps are below 0.

 

I think most people are whip smart enough to know one day a season does not make.  

 

Sometimes your shtick is just really, really obvious.  

[Front Ranger]

Your agenda is pretty transparent.

 

I'm not the one who keeps on talking about the climate changing, Mediterranean-style, over and over. 

 

What exactly do you think my agenda is, anyway?

[Front Ranger]

I think most people are whip smart enough to know one day a season does not make.  

 

Sometimes your shtick is just really, really obvious.  

 

Care to address the facts? Has this winter been top warm at the upper levels?

[TT-SEA]

Feels like spring... sun and cumulus clouds today and pleasantly mild.   Grass sure is green.    Mowing in February this year??  

 

 

[Deweydog]

Care to address the facts? Has this winter been top warm at the upper levels?

 

I don't know.  It's boring and uninteresting to even think it's a possibility, which probably at least exists because I'm somewhat familiar with our climate and I know it's been warm overall.  We haven't even whiffed at an impactfully cold air mass without significant continental help this season and our SW'erly flow patterns have been particularly potent from a warm advection standpoint.  

 

But I get what you're doing.  It's just old and not interesting enough. 

[richard mann]

.. Any why potential to the discussion here where considering the conditions either whether or both, more current or having lead up to this point. ?

[richard mann]

.. All I see Jared's having done has been to have pointed to some particulars. 

[Front Ranger]

I don't know.  It's boring and uninteresting to even think it's a possibility, which probably at least exists because I'm somewhat familiar with our climate and I know it's been warm overall.  We haven't even whiffed at an impactfully cold air mass without significant continental help this season and our SW'erly flow patterns have been particularly potent from a warm advection standpoint.  

 

But I get what you're doing.  It's just old and not interesting enough. 

 

Odd that you feel the need to respond to it then.

[Front Ranger]

We'll have to see how January shakes out...but here was Nov/Dec.

 

 

 

 

And here are some other winters that were easily warmer at the 850 level in Nov/Dec. I didn't choose the color coding intervals.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Deweydog]

Odd that you feel the need to respond to it then.

 

You asked.  Politeness is a lost but necessary art.  

[BLI snowman]

November was average, December was mild, and January has been and will be extreme in the upper levels. Seems like that shakes out to be a pretty top tier season. You're not going to see three upper echelon warm months in a row in the upper levels.

[Deweydog]

.. Any why potential to the discussion here where considering the conditions either whether or both, more current or having lead up to this point. ?

 

Yes.  

[richard mann]

.. Ah ha. 

 

— Views offered from yourself perhaps. ?

 

This year's winter, where also looking at "January" more specifically even, would appear to be some type of more watershed type. It may just be interesting to try to work to assess / establish just why. Looking at things more linearly, also perhaps working to aide in seeing what might take place from here where looking more forward. 

[Front Ranger]

You asked.  Politeness is a lost but necessary art.  

 

You responded calling it "my schtick" before I ever asked you anything.

 

Hey, if you want this place to be an echo chamber, where everyone just repeats the same ideas and feeds off each other's anxiety, have fun with that. The recent warm anomalies and a crappy winter so far have gotten in some people's heads, and sometimes a differing perspective can be healthy for discussion.

 

It's just weather, after all.

[Phil]

Solar is not that high compared to other maximums.

True, but it's a threshold issue. It's active enough.

[Jesse]

Compared to 1862?

You and I both know that's not what I meant.

[Jesse]

Technically we are in a Mediterranean climate categorised as Csb in the Köppen climate classification system. It's similar to parts of NW Spain. Our type of climate is characterised by mild wet winters and warm dry summers. The dry warm season distinction is fairly unique as far as climates go, and it's something you don't generally see in marine-type climates (Cfb, Cfc, etc...).

Well well well....

 

Party at Karl's!! I'll bring the olives and hummus.

[Phil]

You're showing the 11-17th...not through the 20th. And, no one ever said it would be warm, just that it didn't look like a cold pattern.

 

See what happens when you include yesterday...and today is also warmer across much of the U.S. The mid month pattern has been more mild than cold for the most part.

Man up. You repeatedly highlighted the window from January 10th to the 20th and claimed there would be "no cold for anyone" based on the EPO and NAM. In truth, about 50% of the US will run below average during the 10th - 20th timeframe.

 

You got this wrong because you glossed over wave dynamics. It's okay, we all screw up.

[Deweydog]

You and I both know that's not what I meant.

True beans.

 

I guess "standards" are just pretty subjective and in the eye of the beholder. For instance, I know our climate was theoretically cooler when I was 10 years old. But I also know we'll probably have one or two or three more sequences on par with November 1985 in my lifetime. Given that contradiction, what the hell do I do?????

[Front Ranger]

Man up. You repeatedly highlighted the window from January 10th to the 20th..about 50% of the US will run below average during the 10th - 20th timeframe.

 

Feel free to post the map showing this when the 20th is in the books. It obviously means a lot to you.

[Jesse]

True beans.

 

I guess "standards" are just pretty subjective and in the eye of the beholder. For instance, I know our climate was theoretically cooler when I was 10 years old. But I also know we'll probably have one or two or three more sequences on par with November 1985 in my lifetime. Given that contradiction, what the hell do I do?????

Optimistic! Especially considering we've seen zero November events of that caliber in the last Marty McFly time travel interval.

[Deweydog]

Optimistic! Especially considering we've seen zero November events of that caliber in the last Marty McFly time travel interval.

December 1990 and December 2008 were in the ballpark. It was more to make a point of the fact our potential for extremes hasn't changed all that much and extremes are what most plants crave, along with Brawndo.

[Front Ranger]

Optimistic! Especially considering we've seen zero November events of that caliber in the last Marty McFly time travel interval.

 

He didn't say November events. Dec 2008 was Nov 1985 caliber.

[Front Ranger]

December 1990 and December 2008 were in the ballpark. It was more to make a point of the fact our potential for extremes hasn't changed all that much and extremes are what most plants crave, along with Brawndo.

 

Exactly. I'm not sure what's so hard to understand: get a great pattern, and maybe the same pattern would have produced a 26/12 day at PDX in 1960. Now it produces a 27/13 day (or maybe 27/15, considering UHI expansion and all). Global warming!

[Deweydog]

Man up. You repeatedly highlighted the window from January 10th to the 20th and claimed there would be "no cold for anyone" based on the EPO and NAM. In truth, about 50% of the US will run below average during the 10th - 20th timeframe.

 

You got this wrong because you glossed over wave dynamics. It's okay, we all screw up.

Holy , dude.

[Phil]

Holy s**t, dude.

It wouldn't have been brought up continuously if he'd have admitted his bust a week ago. This is the same s**t that was pulled on me a few weeks back. Yeah, I'm still pissed about it.

[Deweydog]

It wouldn't have been brought up continuously if he'd have admitted his bust a week ago. This is the same s**t that was pulled on me a few weeks back. Yeah, I'm still pissed about it.

Healthy living!

[Deweydog]

Exactly. I'm not sure what's so hard to understand: get a great pattern, and maybe the same pattern would have produced a 26/12 day at PDX in 1960. Now it produces a 27/13 day (or maybe 27/15, considering UHI expansion and all). Global warming!

I don't think it's quite that linear, but pretty much that's the jist. Frequency of course is a different story...

[Front Ranger]

It wouldn't have been brought up continuously if he'd have admitted his bust a week ago. This is the same s**t that was pulled on me a few weeks back. Yeah, I'm still pissed about it.

 

How could I have done that, when the period I supposedly busted on had barely begun?

[wx_statman]

This winter is a once in a decade dud.

 

This one is getting away from us. Probably the worst all around since 2004-05 at least up to this point.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Well well well....

 

Party at Karl's!! I'll bring the olives and hummus.

That's not karl.

[wx_statman]

Technically we are in a Mediterranean climate categorised as Csb in the Köppen climate classification system. It's similar to parts of NW Spain. Our type of climate is characterised by mild wet winters and warm dry summers. The dry warm season distinction is fairly unique as far as climates go, and it's something you don't generally see in marine-type climates (Cfb, Cfc, etc...).

 

I don't think enough people appreciate how rare our climate type is. We have a hybrid temperate/oceanic/Mediterranean climate with dry warm summers and a winter rainfall maximum. The only other sizable areas on Earth with this climate are the Bay of Biscay and a stretch of coastal Chile. There are spots with a similar climate situation in parts of SE Australia and New Zealand, but they are considerably smaller.

[wx_statman]

I occasionally forget that Mediterranean doesnt have to mean "Weather for enjoying a good swim off the coast of Spain", but can mean "Questionable weather for doing anything outside in Brittany".

 

I think the best climate twin for the Willamette and Puget Sound might be the southern extent of the South Island of New Zealand. The summers are apparently lovely and occasionally hot, they get decent wind storms, both from the mountains and the sea. The snow events are just as frequent as well.

 

The South Island in NZ is a pretty good match in spots, especially as you head further south. Christchurch and Dunedin can feel very similar to Portland and Seattle especially during the cold season. But they don't have a dry summer and distinct winter rainfall maximum like we do. The closest match in my opinion is somewhere in western France. 

[richard mann]

Time "in". ?
 

Feel free to post the map showing this when the 20th is in the books. It obviously means a lot to you.

 
 .. How about in a new thread initiation.. entitled "That Was The Cold That Was.. Elsewhere", started elsewhere.
 
  —-With all due respect of course.

[richard mann]

Well well well....

 

.. A decent enough point, more basic focus.  @

[Deweydog]

0z is running!

[stuffradio]

Wake me up on the ides of February so I can plant my peas already!

[Front Ranger]

The South Island in NZ is a pretty good match in spots, especially as you head further south. Christchurch and Dunedin can feel very similar to Portland and Seattle especially during the cold season. But they don't have a dry summer and distinct winter rainfall maximum like we do. The closest match in my opinion is somewhere in western France. 

 

Agreed. Nantes, France probably has the closest climate to Seattle or Portland of any major city outside of the PNW. 

 

But even then, they don't get quite as much rainfall in the wet season, and their dry season isn't as dry.

[richard mann]

Wake me up on the ides of February so I can plant my peas already!

 

.. Garden area, or field more. ?