DominicR Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 Parts of Quads and C IL under warnings now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 Here is a graph over here from a local met: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 18z GFS might be a tad weaker but still overall 6-8 inches at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 Don't worry, once gosaints sees this, I'm sure he'll claim ratios are down to 4:1 lolLol what?I do believe I said 10:1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 MKX just left out tomorrow out of their discussion? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 Mike Caplan now riding 5-6" total. ...The Artist Formerly Known as RJSnowLover... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MKEstorm Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 MKX just left out tomorrow out of their discussion? LOL! I noticed that! They seem to be more concerned about next week's storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott26 Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 Mike Caplan now riding 5-6" total.He is the one to jump to conclusions. The global models seemed to dry up a bit today, but 5-6 is still too conservative. I'm going to ride the 6-10 inches that LOT is going with and I think ORD will hit 8 inches. SREF Mean actually went up to 7 inches will most of the plumes between 8-9 for ORD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 He is the one to jump to conclusions. The global models seemed to dry up a bit today, but 5-6 is still too conservative. I'm going to ride the 6-10 inches that LOT is going with and I think ORD will hit 8 inches. SREF Mean actually went up to 7 inches will most of the plumes between 8-9 for ORD.He was referencing less moisture, faster movement, and the mixing line as reasons for lowering snow expectations. ...The Artist Formerly Known as RJSnowLover... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trinomial Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 NBC just showed two models. One giving the whole Chicagoland area 6-7, and one giving us 3 - 3.5 (southern track). Yet his closure at the end was showing 5 - 9+. How are we still so far off on totals?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 Don't trip on lower totals. We are getting pretty close to event now. LOT: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 Hunch last night has been telling me to ride the high side of totals. I'll predict 8.1" to fall at ORD. If I'm gonna bust, I'll bust sky high. ...The Artist Formerly Known as RJSnowLover... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Troop Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 Been prowling on the site for years and years but never posted. Makes you wonder how many are following this blog from the shadows. What a winter its been though - and it keeps getting better. One favor to ask - so many of us post about how a storm will hit them, miss them to the north, be stronger to the east, etc. but they don't have their location listed in their profile. It would help a lot for the frequent bloggers to have their locations in their profile so we know where they're at and can better figure out how the weather is behaving around them. Just a friendly suggestion from a long time fellow weatherhound. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 Been prowling on the site for years and years but never posted. Makes you wonder how many are following this blog from the shadows. What a winter its been though - and it keeps getting better. One favor to ask - so many of us post about how a storm will hit them, miss them to the north, be stronger to the east, etc. but they don't have their location listed in their profile. It would help a lot for the frequent bloggers to have their locations in their profile so we know where they're at and can better figure out how the weather is behaving around them. Just a friendly suggestion from a long time fellow weatherhound. Hey welcome and thanks for being with us! Yes we like everyone who has not done so to add there locations for reason above. It will make it much easier to know the location where the discussion/observation is coming from. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 Rgem at 18z jackpots detroit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarcusBeier Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 DTX is saying High-End Advisory with good chance of upgrade but they cant seem to get into agreement on this bullsh*t freezing rain/rain situation. Plus all the snow today compacted down as we reached 34 degrees. I hate loses snow right before you get new snow, does nothing for the snowpack. I need the EXPERTS here to tell me..im in SW Oakland county in SEMI. Whats your opinions on me staying all snow and how much? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownBlizzard11 Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 My grid has 4-10"... quite the spread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 NAM coming in drier. ...The Artist Formerly Known as RJSnowLover... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott26 Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 NAM coming in drier.And south. Not liking the trend... Edit: not really drier, but definitely south with the heaviest snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 And south. Not liking the trend... Edit: not really drier, but definitely south with the heaviest snows.Yep. May lose our WSW. ...The Artist Formerly Known as RJSnowLover... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 Maybe NW counties but Chicago still looks fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott26 Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 SREF mean dropped to 6 inches for ORD. Still a decent spread between 6-7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 Would love to see 6 from this. If for no other reason, add up some more numbers for the record chase of 2013-14. ...The Artist Formerly Known as RJSnowLover... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 Met from americanwx: The latest guidance is not necessarily the best guidance. The 00z runs before the March 5th event last year backed off fairly significantly on qpf, only to be completely wrong. QPF is what the models do worst, so I highly doubt there's gonna be any downgrades based off a few runs of the NAM. The forcing parameters are what's important, not specific qpf totals. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 Nws dvn just came out with a new afd and dropped snow totals an inch or so based off latest nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott26 Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 Met from americanwx:Mass freak out on the Americanwx forums. I'm glad we're not like that lol. We'll see what LOT does. I say they trim amounts, but keep the Warning pretty much everywhere. Canceling warning for some counties would be pretty extreme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 I believe N IL will be just fine. Just do a comparison (as I did) to how far north the precip shield is compared to where the model believed snow would be falling right now over KS/NE. It actually had no snow whatsoever at this time on the model in NE. It goes to show you that a model is all but a virtual reality of what it believes will happen and in order to forecast we need some human touch to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 000FXUS63 KLOT 010221AFDLOT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL821 PM CST FRI JAN 31 2014 .DISCUSSION...800 PM CST ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WITH THIS UPDATE. RAISED POPS AND SNOWAMOUNTS FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-80 TO ACCOUNT FOR THE STRONGERBANDING OCCURRING. NOTE HOWEVER...STILL THINKING STORM TOTAL SNOWAMOUNTS FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-80 WERE NOT CHANGED AND STILL REMAININ THE 2 TO 6 RANGE. THE BANDING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHTHIS EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING. LOWERED POPS ACROSS THE IL/WI STATE LINE THIS EVENING AS THE SNOWIS ADVANCING A BIT SLOWER THAN EXPECTED. NOW EXPECTING SNOW TOREACH THE STATE LINE OVERNIGHT. EVERYTHING ELSE REMAINS ON TRACK INCLUDING THE ONGOING HEADLINES.NEW MODEL RUNS HAVE SHIFTED FEATURES FARTHER SOUTH AND/OR HINTEDAT LESS QPF...BUT AM HESITANT TO MAKE MAJOR CHANGES RIGHT NOW.THEREFORE LEFT WELL ENOUGH ALONE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 HRRR thru 9:00am and still snowing...Skilling's rpm model showed it arriving later and snowing later...I think it showed it snowing pretty good through 3:00pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 Mike Caplan touting the new NAM numbers & promoting lower snow totals. I always thought he was more of a guy that didn't live run-to-run...perhaps I was wrong. ...The Artist Formerly Known as RJSnowLover... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Snowman Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 Mike Caplan touting the new NAM numbers & promoting lower snow totals. I always thought he was more of a guy that didn't live run-to-run...perhaps I was wrong.Caplan, Taft & friends are uber-conservative. Taft more so than Caplan, but the whole ABC 7 team prefers lower totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cirrus1 Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 Trend is not good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 Time to stop watching the models and watching the radar. Not worried about any adjustments in the models at this time. ' Did want to post this though. Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FiNsTa Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 Trend is not goodDon't buy into what the models are showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FiNsTa Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 Time to stop watching the models and watching the radar. Not worried about any adjustments in the models at this time. +1 thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 Exactly, its a nowcast event now...lets see this puppy develop... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 Got some very light snow falling right now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cirrus1 Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 Thanks Tom! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 Skilling just said on air - earlier model runs have been/can be better than the ones right before an event. Take the newest model runs with a grain of salt. Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 GFS still pretty good. Just saying if they wanna hype NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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