Tom Posted January 24, 2015 Author Report Share Posted January 24, 2015 Skilling just mentioned their newest in-house model run is even more generous with snowfall, esp lakeside counties. I think this could be a decent event IMBY. Looking like it could be the biggest snowfall of the season (which is 3" at ORD). Could double that with this Clipper. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 24, 2015 Report Share Posted January 24, 2015 Sad news to hear Ernie Banks has passed. What a great player and a true icon. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott26 Posted January 24, 2015 Report Share Posted January 24, 2015 Sad news to hear Ernie Banks has passed. What a great player and a true icon.RIP Ernie Banks to one of the greatest Cubs of all time both on and off the field. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 24, 2015 Report Share Posted January 24, 2015 Hopefully there's no more south trend on this system... Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott26 Posted January 24, 2015 Report Share Posted January 24, 2015 Hopefully there's no more south trend on this system...This is the reason why I'm not going with anything more than 1-3 inches at this time. Best forcing and banding looks to be to the south of here. South side of Chicago through Northern Indiana possibly into Ohio looks to be in the best place right now for the higher totals. It's funny that yesterday I was thinking Wisconsin and Michigan were going to be the winners with this one. The Euro, the southern outlier, was even too far north will the heaviest band yesterday. We will see if lake enhancement over here can up our totals similar to Skilling's RPM model. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 24, 2015 Author Report Share Posted January 24, 2015 This is the reason why I'm not going with anything more than 1-3 inches at this time. Best forcing and banding looks to be to the south of here. South side of Chicago through Northern Indiana possibly into Ohio looks to be in the best place right now for the higher totals. It's funny that yesterday I was thinking Wisconsin and Michigan were going to be the winners with this one. The Euro, the southern outlier, was even too far north will the heaviest band yesterday. We will see if lake enhancement over here can up our totals similar to Skilling's RPM model.The RPM model is picking up on the lake enhancement and I find that it does very well with the track/intensity within the 24-48 period. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildWisconsinWeather Posted January 24, 2015 Report Share Posted January 24, 2015 The RPM model is picking up on the lake enhancement and I find that it does very well with the track/intensity within the 24-48 period. I'll take seasonal trends over initially bullish hi-resolution models, decent chance it comes back to earth wrt totals, I'm saying around 2" here, and that might be too bullish. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 24, 2015 Author Report Share Posted January 24, 2015 I'll take seasonal trends over initially bullish hi-resolution models, decent chance it comes back to earth wrt totals, I'm saying around 2" here, and that might be too bullish.I've been conservative with making calls systems this season, but this one is packing a little more ammo for NE IL. My call is 4-6" for ORD. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 24, 2015 Report Share Posted January 24, 2015 This is the reason why I'm not going with anything more than 1-3 inches at this time. Best forcing and banding looks to be to the south of here. South side of Chicago through Northern Indiana possibly into Ohio looks to be in the best place right now for the higher totals. It's funny that yesterday I was thinking Wisconsin and Michigan were going to be the winners with this one. The Euro, the southern outlier, was even too far north will the heaviest band yesterday. We will see if lake enhancement over here can up our totals similar to Skilling's RPM model. I will say - at least this time there isn't a frigid Arctic high wanting to push the system further south. Unlike a few weeks ago. 1 Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 24, 2015 Report Share Posted January 24, 2015 Could be a nice event. Most models are showing 2-3 for me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 24, 2015 Report Share Posted January 24, 2015 6z NAM with 6+ for Chicago. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dubuque473 Posted January 24, 2015 Report Share Posted January 24, 2015 DVN going with around 2" for me. Pretty much nothing along I-80 but did mention potential for heavy snow ina given spot if someone gets lucky. Last 2 clippers were overperformers for me so curious to see this come through... Quote Dubuque 2007-2008 Winter 78.1" Total snowfall February Snowfall 32.5" City salt usage : 12,211 tons Days of measurable snow : 40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WBadgersW Posted January 24, 2015 Report Share Posted January 24, 2015 Looks like I'll see another 1" maybe 2". I was just beginning to see grass too Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildWisconsinWeather Posted January 24, 2015 Report Share Posted January 24, 2015 Looks like I'll see another 1" maybe 2". I was just beginning to see grass too At this point I hope it keeps trending south and we get nothing, as 1-2" would serve to still make driving a challenge yet offer almost no satisfaction. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted January 24, 2015 Report Share Posted January 24, 2015 At this point I hope it keeps trending south and we get nothing, as 1-2" would serve to still make driving a challenge yet offer almost no satisfaction. same here I'm ready for spring. Looking at upper 40s low 50s couple of days next week Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarcusBeier Posted January 24, 2015 Report Share Posted January 24, 2015 SEMI was on target and now were cut out, waaaaahhh Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 24, 2015 Report Share Posted January 24, 2015 12z NAM and GFS definitely weakened the system... Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 24, 2015 Report Share Posted January 24, 2015 Lol can't make it up its like a broken record Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 24, 2015 Author Report Share Posted January 24, 2015 12z RGEM... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 24, 2015 Report Share Posted January 24, 2015 Most if not all the systems weakened as the event started so no surprise there. I dont anticipate this changing down the road as other systems approach our area. Just the way it is this winter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 24, 2015 Report Share Posted January 24, 2015 Wild card as I have said is LE so lets see how that works out tomorrow Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 24, 2015 Report Share Posted January 24, 2015 For lake enhancement it looks alright... Although I'd like to see a steady decrease in temperature in the column as opposed to it leveling off then decreasing. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 24, 2015 Report Share Posted January 24, 2015 Radar looks intense in North Dakota. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott26 Posted January 24, 2015 Report Share Posted January 24, 2015 Looks like a couple of inches over here at best. Has anybody been tracking the potential major blizzard for the east coast in the Tuesday-Wednesday time frame? Our system phases with an Atlantic low to create a monster storm. 12Z Euro was probably one of the most impressive runs I have ever seen for a winter storm. It gives NYC 2.2 inches of precipitation with temperatures in the 20's. That would translate to over 2 feet of snow! At least this clipper will be useful for something... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 24, 2015 Report Share Posted January 24, 2015 I am jealous. Why cant we get something like that............? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 24, 2015 Report Share Posted January 24, 2015 Looks like a couple of inches over here at best. Has anybody been tracking the potential major blizzard for the east coast in the Tuesday-Wednesday time frame? Our system phases with an Atlantic low to create a monster storm. 12Z Euro was probably one of the most impressive runs I have ever seen for a winter storm. It gives NYC 2.2 inches of precipitation with temperatures in the 20's. That would translate to over 2 feet of snow! At least this clipper will be useful for something...I am from NYC and I have been through some very big winterstorms there. I have been here in SEMI now for a couple of years and I have not seen anything close to what the EC gets. I am used to be getting feet of snow, not 1-3 inches or 2-4 inches and clipper crap. Anyways, family of mine told me that conditions there will deteriorate very fast sometime Monday and especially Tuesday. To be honest, I was thinking of flying there tomorrow to experience the Blizzard there. Also, more snow for them on Thursday and possibly more over the weekend with bitter cold air. EC is the place to be next week and beyond. Boston will get inundated as well. Fun times ahead there. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 24, 2015 Author Report Share Posted January 24, 2015 From LOT: DID BUMP UP SNOWTOTALS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CHICAGO METRO WHERE MODELS CONTINUE TOADVERTISE AN INCREASE IN THE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AS WINDS TURN NEOFF LAKE MICHIGAN WITH LAKE ENHANCEMENT APPEARING AT LEAST POSSIBLE.NAM AND REGIONAL GEM GUIDANCE BOTH SHOW A SLIGHT MAX IN THE QPFVALUES OVER THE AREA AND HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY ADVERTISING A BUMP INTHE LOW LEVEL OMEGA STARTING LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.FORECAST SNOW TOTALS FOR THIS EVENT WILL BE 1-3 INCHES WEST OF AWAUKEGAN TO STREATOR LINE...AND 2-4 INCHES EAST. WILL HAVE TOMONITOR THE MESOSCALE BANDING THREAT FOR SOME LOCALLY HIGHERAMOUNTS. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted January 24, 2015 Report Share Posted January 24, 2015 The Northeast has a better big storm climo for sure. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted January 24, 2015 Report Share Posted January 24, 2015 Wife is headed to NYC tomorrow till tues night...how bad does it look? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 24, 2015 Report Share Posted January 24, 2015 Wife is headed to NYC tomorrow till tues night...how bad does it look? Pretty nasty.Looks like Boston will get the brunt though. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted January 24, 2015 Report Share Posted January 24, 2015 Should I go with? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 25, 2015 Author Report Share Posted January 25, 2015 Should I go with?12z Euro dumps 2 Feet plus in NYC with blizzard conditions....ummm ya, I would totally go. By 1pm Tuesday, the model is showing 1-2 Feet of snow with temps in the low 20's. This map is total snowfall. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 25, 2015 Report Share Posted January 25, 2015 Should I go with? Yeah I'd go with to experience that!Never been in a Nor'easter before. Been in a few winter storms out West and the Southeast though. They're going to get more than we will in the next week or so. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 25, 2015 Report Share Posted January 25, 2015 Can I go with you??!! lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted January 25, 2015 Report Share Posted January 25, 2015 First call for MBY: DABgood call Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLIZZARD09 Posted January 25, 2015 Report Share Posted January 25, 2015 Another bust Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted January 25, 2015 Report Share Posted January 25, 2015 Never expected much from this one anyway, so I'm not too disappointed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 25, 2015 Author Report Share Posted January 25, 2015 You can see signs of some lake effect beginning near MKE with a temp of 34F and a sustained wind out of NE @ 16mph. I'm wondering once the temps drop if this will pick up in intensity. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted January 25, 2015 Report Share Posted January 25, 2015 Hard to get excited for a few flakes, when the east coast is going to get hammered! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott26 Posted January 25, 2015 Report Share Posted January 25, 2015 Should I go with?If you're still wondering, no doubt you should go. I would say NYC is the city to be in for this one out of all of the major east coast cities. If you have the chance to experience a historic storm to epic proportions you should definitely jump on the opportunity. Airports may be closed for a while though so don't expect to get back here in a couple of days. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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