Tom Posted June 25, 2021 Author Report Share Posted June 25, 2021 Woke up just after 3:00am to the sound of thunder. First round of heavy rain has started but there has been a brief lull as more heavy rain is knocking on my doorstep. This wave is quite fascinating as there is a spin on radar. The high rez NAM shows this low pressure system tracking directly over Chicago. The history of this nocturnal MCS has undoubtedly left its mark across our Sub... http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/current/mcview.phtml?prod=comprad&java=script&mode=archive&frames=100&interval=5&year=2021&month=6&day=24&hour=22&minute=0 I think the center of this system tracked just south of @OttumwaSnomow.... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted June 25, 2021 Author Report Share Posted June 25, 2021 I don't think I've ever seen a model run like this before in the summer season...local radar looks like a defo band setting up right over NE IL...Flood Watch has been hoisted for the area through the weekend. Let it rain.... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted June 25, 2021 Author Report Share Posted June 25, 2021 Getting rocked by a sweet looking bowed line on radar... 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted June 25, 2021 Report Share Posted June 25, 2021 10.5 inches of rain in Savannah MO near St.Joe and not 1 drop in mby last night. Another shot of storms and heavy rain today and Saturday. 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted June 25, 2021 Report Share Posted June 25, 2021 Nice line of storms has developed right on top of me as the morning activity slowly moves out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormy Posted June 25, 2021 Report Share Posted June 25, 2021 (edited) Yesterday forenoon an MCV tracked nearly overhead and several hrs ago another one produced a skinny line of heavy showers on the nw side. The far sw. part of that line fortunately parked over me for a bit dumping around .90” in just over 30 minutes. Maximum rain rates around 4” per hour. That same skinny line produced yet more maybe 2 miles ne. of me and including se. side of Iowa City, but especially in Cedar county where it sat for several hours and still raining. But I guess that’s nothing compared to areas further south. Last evening’s thunder showers weren’t as efficient rain producers at my place but I was in the northern main band, thankfully. My digital gauge shows 1.44” since it started last evening. Want to check the other gauges yet. Here is the MCV from yesterday. This morning’s MCV… FullSizeRender.mov Edited June 25, 2021 by Sparky 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted June 25, 2021 Author Report Share Posted June 25, 2021 8 minutes ago, Sparky said: Yesterday forenoon an MCV tracked nearly overhead and several hrs ago another one produced a skinny line of heavy showers on the nw side. The far sw. part of that line fortunately parked over me for a bit dumping around .90” in just over 30 minutes. That same skinny line produced yet more maybe 2 miles ne. of me and including se. side of Iowa City, but especially in Cedar county where it sat for several hours and still raining. But I guess that’s nothing compared to areas further south. Last evening’s thunder showers weren’t as efficient rain producers at my place but I was in the northern main band, thankfully. My digital gauge shows 1.44” since it started last evening. Want to check the other gauges yet. Here is the MCV from yesterday. This morning’s MCV… FullSizeRender.mov Very cool wx phenomenon...this part of the pattern has been on my mind for about a week and it's transpiring to a "T"...def something I'll remember for a while. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted June 25, 2021 Report Share Posted June 25, 2021 My rain fall for yesterday and overnight is now at 1.30" The total at the air port so far looks to be 1.19" for yesterday and 0.03 overnight. The overnight low here was 64 and 66 at the airport. At this time it is 67 both here and at the airport. I have light rain falling and the report at the airport was heavy rain falling. Here is some thing that is very interesting even if it dose not happen. " POSSIBLE WAKE LOW THIS AFTERNOON SPEAKING OF THE WIND...IT IS INTERESTING TO SEE MOST OF THE MODELS SHOWING A STRONG SIGNAL FOR A WAKE LOW TOWARDS NOON INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE AREA ALONG AND SOUTH OF A GRAND RAPIDS TO LANSING LINE LOOKS TO BE AT THE HIGHEST RISK FOR THIS TO HAPPEN. WE WILL ADD THIS RISK TO THE HWO...BUMP UP WINDS IN THE GRIDS AND MENTION THE POTENTIAL IN SOCIAL MEDIA POSTS. IF THIS FEATURE DOES GET GOING...WE MAY NEED TO CONSIDER A WIND ADVISORY FOR A FEW HOURS." 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted June 25, 2021 Report Share Posted June 25, 2021 The line of heavy storms that moved overhead produced .45in in 25 min. Nice little drink and puts me over an inch for the week. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted June 25, 2021 Report Share Posted June 25, 2021 Had to turn the sprinklers on this morning. Kept holding out hope that a forecast would verify and we’d get something. From Tuesday night through this morning, NWS Hastings has had this area between 30-70% chances for rain and thunderstorms and have gotten 0.0”. Today was supposed to be 60-70% now only 20%. Major miss for this area after much hype. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted June 25, 2021 Report Share Posted June 25, 2021 very heavy rain falling here now temperature is at 67. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted June 25, 2021 Report Share Posted June 25, 2021 Some rainfall amounts from overnight and this morning. 8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mlgamer Posted June 25, 2021 Report Share Posted June 25, 2021 Lots of wind and thunder but only received about 0.05" in my rain gauge overnight and we could use the moisture. Heavier rains were nearby but somehow they missed MBY. Curse of the Flash Flood Watch no doubt... 1 1 Quote 23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted June 25, 2021 Report Share Posted June 25, 2021 6 minutes ago, mlgamer said: Lots of wind and thunder but only received about 0.05" in my rain gauge overnight and we could use the moisture. Heavier rains were nearby but somehow they missed MBY. Curse of the Flash Flood Watch no doubt... Hopefully todays set-up favors us better. I think we'll know how things will go by 3 or so. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormy Posted June 25, 2021 Report Share Posted June 25, 2021 Right now it’s pouring rain from a little band of light orange of around 40 dDZ. Rain “rates” around 2.50” per hour. 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted June 25, 2021 Report Share Posted June 25, 2021 I picked up 0.13" overnight from the light rain shield. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan1117 Posted June 25, 2021 Report Share Posted June 25, 2021 So happy to say that the last two days I have dumped out about 1.40 inches of rain from the rain gauge in my backyard (nice to be on the winning side of things for once, LOL). We are finally getting some moisture to break up the hot/dry pattern, and late Wednesday night/Thursday morning delivered the best storms of the season here so far. Last night I decided to treat some out-of-town co-workers to their first College World Series game, and we ended up sitting through a 3 hour and 45 minute rain delay - as rain and thunderstorms tracked through the metro area. Took a picture of a gorgeous rainbow from Baseball Village in Downtown Omaha last night during the rain delay, as the sunset illuminated the back of the thunderstorm complex in Western Iowa. 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted June 25, 2021 Report Share Posted June 25, 2021 12z HRRR and 3km NAM for the next 24 hrs. The 3km NAM has a similar solution to what happened last night only this time south of KC. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mlgamer Posted June 25, 2021 Report Share Posted June 25, 2021 57 minutes ago, Clinton said: Hopefully todays set-up favors us better. I think we'll know how things will go by 3 or so. The HRRR and 3km NAM QPF charts you posted hint that I could be missed to the south by the next round which I think is a possibility. Almost reminds me of how the snow kept skipping pass the I-70 corridor in my neck of the woods during the winter. Yeah, we'll have to see how things shake out later today. Quote 23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted June 25, 2021 Report Share Posted June 25, 2021 6 minutes ago, mlgamer said: The HRRR and 3km NAM QPF charts you posted hint that I could be missed to the south by the next round which I think is a possibility. Almost reminds me of how the snow kept skipping pass the I-70 corridor in my neck of the woods during the winter. Yeah, we'll have to see how things shake out later today. Very sharp cutoffs on the NAM that has me nervous also. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OttumwaSnomow Posted June 25, 2021 Report Share Posted June 25, 2021 Yesterdays rain into this am total 3.25" June total 5.95 Almost all of June rain came after the 18th. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormy Posted June 25, 2021 Report Share Posted June 25, 2021 Basically, it rained about all night at mostly light to moderate rates till the last two heavy downpours, the last of which dropped another .70”+! Storm total since last evening is a wonderful 2.26”. Now it won’t bug me as much if the next one misses though I would’ve enjoyed a thunderstorm too. Did have some decent lightning n thunder till after midnight though. Some nearby places got much less so Mother Nature kind of filled up this drier whole. Makes me wonder how much nearby counties picked up where showers looked much more substantial! High PWATs make a difference! 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted June 25, 2021 Report Share Posted June 25, 2021 Had another little over 1/2" last evening so ended up with 1.32" of rain yesterday. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted June 25, 2021 Report Share Posted June 25, 2021 I've received 0.20" so far from this multi-day event. The models are not promising. They continue to show a dry band right through Cedar Rapids. 2 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted June 25, 2021 Report Share Posted June 25, 2021 HRW FV3 agrees there will be very little rain in Cedar Rapids..... a total bust 1 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted June 25, 2021 Report Share Posted June 25, 2021 Since 7 AM I have recorded an additional 0.63" of rain fall for a total of 1.93 for yesterday and today so far. At the current time the temperature here and at the airport is 70 the DP here is 69 and the last reading at the airport was 70. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted June 25, 2021 Report Share Posted June 25, 2021 Close call for a customer of mine near me Nebraska City 2 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted June 25, 2021 Report Share Posted June 25, 2021 Here we go again. You would think they’d be right once this week. Right? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted June 25, 2021 Report Share Posted June 25, 2021 Severe Thunderstorm Watch coming soon. Mesoscale Discussion 1090 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 AM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021 Areas affected...Much of east central into southeastern Kansas...southwestern/west central Missouri Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 251656Z - 251930Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Increasing thunderstorm development is expected through 1-3 PM CDT, including potential for isolated supercells, before activity begins to consolidate into organizing clusters, with strong wind gusts becoming the more prominent potential severe weather hazard later this afternoon and evening. Timing of a possible severe weather watch issuance remains unclear, but one probably will be needed by late afternoon, if not earlier. DISCUSSION...Beneath modestly steep lower/mid tropospheric lapse rates associated with a plume of warm elevated mixed-layer air, a moist boundary layer (including lower/mid 70s F surface dew points) appears characterized by large CAPE (in excess of 2500-3000 J/kg), south of at least a couple of remnant outflow boundaries. One, south/southwest of the Lake of the Ozarks into southern portions of the Greater Kansas City area, remains fairly prominent, with the influence of precipitation still in the process of diminishing. The other boundary, southwest of Kansas City into areas south and west of Great Bend, appears more subtle, but is becoming a focus for stronger differential surface heating. Meanwhile, low amplitude/weak mid-level troughing, with smaller scale perturbations, is in the process of overspreading the central Great Plains. This appears to have provided support for ongoing isolated thunderstorm development across north central Oklahoma, with at least attempts at new initiation northeast of Hutchinson and Wichita, closer to the western outflow boundary. While spread exists among the various model output concerning convective evolution, there does appear a consistent signal that a more substantive increase in thunderstorm development is possible as 18-20Z. It seems most likely that this will be focused along and just to the cool side of the outflow boundaries, aided by lift associated with warm advection, and where deep-layer shear is strongest beneath 25-30+ kt west-southwesterly deep layer mean ambient flow. Gradually, the surface boundary intersection near/ south of the Kansas City area may become one focus for consolidating thunderstorm development later this afternoon. Initial storm development may include isolated supercells posing a risk for severe hail, with perhaps some potential for a tornado, particularly where low-level shear appears more favorable along the outflow boundary south/southeast of Kansas City. However, strong wind gusts associated with downbursts and strengthening surface cold pools will become the more prominent severe hazard as convection grows upscale later this afternoon. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted June 25, 2021 Report Share Posted June 25, 2021 With some very heavy rain in the last hour I have now gone over the 1 inch mark since 7AM and over 2.30" for yesterday and today. At this time it is still raining here with a temperature of 71 and a DP of 70. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mlgamer Posted June 25, 2021 Report Share Posted June 25, 2021 1 hour ago, Hawkeye said: HRW FV3 agrees there will be very little rain in Cedar Rapids..... a total bust It might rain here, but I have so little confidence in the forecast I went ahead and watered our outdoor plants and added water to our small (150 gal) yard pond this morning. I was hoping the expected heavy rains would take care of all that but decided not to wait any longer. Quote 23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BMT Posted June 25, 2021 Report Share Posted June 25, 2021 Been raining steadily here for about an hour. Nice surprise 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted June 25, 2021 Report Share Posted June 25, 2021 1 hour ago, CentralNebWeather said: Here we go again. You would think they’d be right once this week. Right? Well this might be a good sign for ya. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted June 25, 2021 Report Share Posted June 25, 2021 9 minutes ago, BMT said: Been raining steadily here for about an hour. Nice surprise Yeah, Marion is getting a nice cell, but on the west side of CR I'm not getting a drop. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted June 25, 2021 Report Share Posted June 25, 2021 STW issued and storms are rapidly developing to my west. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted June 25, 2021 Report Share Posted June 25, 2021 Very heavy rain falling. Looks like it will last for quite awhile. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted June 25, 2021 Report Share Posted June 25, 2021 I have a tornado warning about four miles to my SE it is moving away from my place. However a flash flood warning is in effect as I've received two inches of rain in the last hour some places have received up to three inches of rain in the last hour. 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted June 25, 2021 Report Share Posted June 25, 2021 Radar estimates of 2" or so out West near Carrington. Not gonna put a huge dent in the drought out there, but it at least keeps it from getting worse. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted June 25, 2021 Report Share Posted June 25, 2021 3 hours ago, Clinton said: Well this might be a good sign for ya. Still not one drop. In a thunderstorm watch but not much developing. Really frustrating. I know my relatives who farm are just shaking their head. Well we’ve been missed before and we’ll be missed again. What are you going to do? 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted June 25, 2021 Report Share Posted June 25, 2021 I’m the blue circle. 5:30 pm radar. I won’t even say it. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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