February 2014 in the PNW

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

He is much better looking than Rich Marriot.

yeah thats a fact.

[bainbridgekid]

So no snow this weekend up here.... Crazy..

Looks like the Euro shows 3-5" of wet snow for you Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. Dry till then though.

[Weather101]

Looks like the Euro shows 3-5" of wet snow for you Sunday night. Dry till then though.

Thanks !

[BLI snowman]

Euro is totally dry North of Olympia through Saturday evening . . . 

 

http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2014020500/nw/ecmwf_24_precip_nw_18.png

 

Still a good snow event up this way on Sunday. No question we miss out on the Thursday/Friday stuff up here, Saturday's the main question mark.

[Skagit Weather]

35/27 today with the temperature currently at 28F and a dp of 15F. NWS has upper teens tonight and close to single digits Thursday morning and Friday morning. The Euro now shows the coldest air here on Friday and Saturday morning with lows in the single digits, but it keeps pushing that colder air later. And anyways, the Euro sucks up here for precipitation. Maybe a flake of snow before the warm-up according to the Wundermaps. We will have to see what tomorrow's model runs bring us.

[bainbridgekid]

Had a high of just 29 here.

 

Currently 23 with a DP of -1. Love it.

[Parksvillewx]

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v204/batman7150/eurosnow.jpg

[Deweydog]

Spokane getting a nice snowcover assist this evening.  

[brody]

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v204/batman7150/eurosnow.jpg

Yikes !!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v204/batman7150/eurosnow.jpg

what a dud.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

-8 DP at Spokane as of 10pm.

[Snowman Josh]

I find it funny you guys hang on every map posted on here. It's going to do what it is going to do and those maps don't mean shyt.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

-10 between tonasket and republic. I think this is already colder there than the december outbreak.

[Parksvillewx]

And for everyone...

 

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v204/batman7150/euros.jpg

[brody]

And for everyone...

 

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v204/batman7150/euros.jpg

Oh Look, Eugene scores AGAIN!

 

With the exception of the Wa Cascades and a sliver along the southern Wa gorge in E. Wa, most of Wa state get's screwed.

[van city]

Good night everyone I am getting tired of this s**t off to bed.

[Parksvillewx]

I find it funny you guys hang on every map posted on here. It's going to do what it is going to do and those maps don't mean shyt.

 

Bingo. I just post them for everyone's enjoyment.

 

And as VancouverIslandSouth said, with the way things are and how the models are handling things, could be a total surprise what happens.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

-10 between tonasket and republic. I think this is already colder there than the december outbreak.

 

There was a spot in E. Oregon about 30 miles SE of Bend that hit -41 with the December blast. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

There was a spot in E. Oregon about 30 miles SE of Bend that hit -41 with the December blast.

Wow incredible.

[Weather101]

And for everyone...

 

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v204/batman7150/euros.jpg

What day is this for?

[brody]

What day is this for?

from tomorrow to next Tues.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

What day is this for?

Now all the way to Tuesday.

[Perturbed Member]

I don't see why everyone is so upset. The details are hardly set in stone, the models still have a lot of things to work out. I really do hope this is mostly a Northern Willamette valley into WA event since I think the Central and Southern OR regions had their fun already. We'll find out soon enough.

[Weather101]

Now all the way to Tuesday.

Oh wow....

[brody]

Oh wow....

Exactly

[Snowman Josh]

Exactly

Ya, because that map is so real time, oh brother. None of the models knows what to do, hell, even Mark Nelsen is sketchy on any details.

[brody]

Ya, because that map is so real time, oh brother. None of the models knows what to do, hell, even Mark Nelsen is sketchy on any details.

I know that I'm just messin' with you guys 

[Perturbed Member]

Mark Nelsen just posted this on the KPTV Fox12 Weather Blog:

 

"Models are  a mess this evening; thus we have a very challenging Thursday-Sunday forecast.  What seemed like a very clear “moisture returns and rides over the cold air Saturday” event is now something a bit different.  It appears the arctic boundary (dividing line between cold and dry air and milder air) will sit across central/southern Oregon the next few days.  Several surface lows and/or weak disturbances in the upper atmosphere will ride along that boundary Thursday and Friday.  Then the stronger warm front finally swings north (probably) on Saturday.  Depending on which model and which run you look at, each of those waves of moisture could bring snow to parts of the Willamette Valley.  As of now our RPM and GFS don’t really bring much of anything to the Portland area until late Friday night.  The new 00z ECMWF looks similar, so our forecast is staying that way.  Of course it’s only late Tuesday and I’m pretty sure with the boundary so close to us that things will change.

I am very confident that we’re not getting out of the cold air until at least Sunday.  The 00z GFS and 00z ECMWF don’t have any southerly wind in the metro area through Saturday.  Anyone that thinks they can predict snow totals for Saturday, on a Tuesday evening,  in a pattern like this, is nuts!"

[epiceast]

Mark Nelsen just posted this on the KPTV Fox12 Weather Blog:

 

"Models are  a mess this evening; thus we have a very challenging Thursday-Sunday forecast.  What seemed like a very clear “moisture returns and rides over the cold air Saturday” event is now something a bit different.  It appears the arctic boundary (dividing line between cold and dry air and milder air) will sit across central/southern Oregon the next few days.  Several surface lows and/or weak disturbances in the upper atmosphere will ride along that boundary Thursday and Friday.  Then the stronger warm front finally swings north (probably) on Saturday.  Depending on which model and which run you look at, each of those waves of moisture could bring snow to parts of the Willamette Valley.  As of now our RPM and GFS don’t really bring much of anything to the Portland area until late Friday night.  The new 00z ECMWF looks similar, so our forecast is staying that way.  Of course it’s only late Tuesday and I’m pretty sure with the boundary so close to us that things will change.

I am very confident that we’re not getting out of the cold air until at least Sunday.  The 00z GFS and 00z ECMWF don’t have any southerly wind in the metro area through Saturday.  Anyone that thinks they can predict snow totals for Saturday, on a Tuesday evening,  in a pattern like this, is nuts!"

just go with good 30-35 rain/snow mix for everyday.

[vck]

Horse Ridge.

[vck]

Horse Ridge - 41

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Some light snow falling. Temp down to 27 and the N wind is beginning to pick up a little.

[bainbridgekid]

6z NAM is way South with the weekend storm.

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nam/20140205/06/nam_namer_084_1000_500_thick_s.gif

[SilverFallsAndrew]

NAM not backing off the Willamette Valley snowstorm.

[FroYoBro]

NAM not backing off the Willamette Valley snowstorm.

Looks great for Portland. I am starting to feel fairly confident that Portland will see at least something Thursday night/Friday morning. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

NAM simulated radar for 12z Friday.

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nam/06/nam_namer_054_sim_radar.gif

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Here is the simulated radar for 18z Saturday. At this time the 0C 850mb line is at about EUG and 850mb temps at SLE are about -4C, PDX -6C. 

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nam/06/nam_namer_084_sim_radar.gif

[bainbridgekid]

6z NAM gives Eugene 0.45" Thursday night into Friday. Solid 4-5" dump of snow for them.

 

0.35" for Salem and 0.11" for PDX.

 

http://68.226.77.253/text/MESOSFC/NAM_Keug.txt

[Deweydog]

GFS continues its trip up I-5.  

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

This has a few snow storms written all over it. D**n nam.