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July 2021 PNW Weather Discussion


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10 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Quiet day on the forums...

67/56 here with lots of altocumulus streaming overhead. Nice day.

Guess this is what happens when Tim and Phil aren’t arguing. 😆 

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Just now, CloudBFIWx said:

Guess this is what happens when Tim and Phil aren’t arguing. 😆 

It's a nice, normal-ish PNW summer day with some morning clouds and afternoon sunshine with pleasant conditions, so many of us are pretty mellow RN. These are the days where Oregon is one of the best places on the planet for weather in terms of it feeling the same, nice temp outside as inside. Then we cool down into the low 50s at night. Those are the summers I remember even when I was in college. Anymore it's mostly clear and beautiful all day but also warm in the low 90s and very dry. So these days definitely keep the place calm.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 50 (Most recent: Apr 14, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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Up to 81F. So nice to have the low 80s instead of the low 90s.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 50 (Most recent: Apr 14, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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4 minutes ago, Phil said:

Clown range GFS looks epic out there.

😁

Still shows 84 at SEA on day 14.    

And I will take any bet that the 384-hour solution does not verify... or anything close it.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

😁

Still shows 84 at SEA on day 14.    

And I will take any bet that the 384-hour solution does not verify... or anything close it.  

If this D9-16 projection verifies, can I visit you?

A156E349-C95C-4892-A741-A0D016F3848F.png

E2869FFB-3487-47D4-B231-9E61480BD733.png

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2 minutes ago, Phil said:

If this D9-16 projection verifies, can I visit you?

A156E349-C95C-4892-A741-A0D016F3848F.png

E2869FFB-3487-47D4-B231-9E61480BD733.png

Sure!

But even under a ridge... our weather is usually much more comfortable than yours.  👍

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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The system today really stripped out the marine moisture.   The 18Z ECMWF shows just some scattered low clouds in the Seattle area tomorrow morning and then a mostly sunny afternoon.    

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Good thing we have westerly winds coming up for now. This isn’t all the fires but these are the big ones showing up. The fire east of Klamath falls seems to be blowing up. 

573018E6-2B30-4EED-AF63-DF52D7E0E3F9.jpeg

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Monthly rainfall-0.00”

Warm season rainfall-5.26”

+80s-27

+85s-9

+90s-3

+100s-2

Highest temp-106

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59 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Good thing we have westerly winds coming up for now. This isn’t all the fires but these are the big ones showing up. The fire east of Klamath falls seems to be blowing up. 

573018E6-2B30-4EED-AF63-DF52D7E0E3F9.jpeg

Sneak preview.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 50 (Most recent: Apr 14, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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1 hour ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Good thing we have westerly winds coming up for now. This isn’t all the fires but these are the big ones showing up. The fire east of Klamath falls seems to be blowing up. 

573018E6-2B30-4EED-AF63-DF52D7E0E3F9.jpeg

Not so concerned about the fires as I am the Giant chicken loose on the west coast 😱

Hoping Mother Nature goes alt rout later this month and puts a damper on things.  
High of 72 and currently 69* ☀️

 

 

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Looks like we topped out at 84F. Airport just 82F as was Tangent when I was picking up the kiddos so a much nicer day.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 50 (Most recent: Apr 14, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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57 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Sneak preview.

It’s sad that this May only be the beginning if we don’t get some appreciable rainfall. Onshore flow helps west of the crest…but we need some rain. 

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Monthly rainfall-0.00”

Warm season rainfall-5.26”

+80s-27

+85s-9

+90s-3

+100s-2

Highest temp-106

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Amazing day.  SEA appears to have topped out at 71, and is already down to 66.  On top of that the dew points are the lowest they've been in quite a while.  A reasonable July overall is looking like a better bet all the time.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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36 minutes ago, MV_snow said:

Beautiful day and 71 out. Cleared out earlier than the NWS expected here. Euro surface maps for low clouds were very accurate.

It was nice for our area to clear out quicker than others for once. The entire past week has seemed like we have hung on to the marine stratus much longer than everywhere else. Refreshing change of pace.

Weather station: https://maplevalleywx.com

 

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35 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Looks like we topped out at 84F. Airport just 82F as was Tangent when I was picking up the kiddos so a much nicer day.

Even that is pretty warm.  Salem just keeps overperforming.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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Ended up being a perfect summer afternoon for our flag football practice. Sunny skies but not too hot with the temp sitting around 75. Couldn't really ask for better weather to play sports. Our first game is this Saturday vs the Vikings. Looking a bit warmer for that one but still not too crazy hot.

We seem to be hitting that goldilocks PNW summer weather now. Hope it keeps up for a while, with a little rain tossed in on the side.

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Weather station: https://maplevalleywx.com

 

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10 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Amazing day.  SEA appears to have topped out at 71, and is already down to 66.  On top of that the dew points are the lowest they've been in quite a while.  A reasonable July overall is looking like a better bet all the time.

This post just guaranteed us a major late month heatwave.

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20 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Amazing day.  SEA appears to have topped out at 71, and is already down to 66.  On top of that the dew points are the lowest they've been in quite a while.  A reasonable July overall is looking like a better bet all the time.

Just realize that the models show that today is expected to be one of the 2 coolest days in the next two weeks.

gfs-ensemble-all-KSEA-daily_tmin_tmax-5680800.png

ecmwf-ensemble-KSEA-daily_tmin_tmax-5659200.png

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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4 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Oof... Those three fires seem to have gotten much smokier since I last checked satellite earlier today. No bueno.

SmartSelect_20210707-200032_Samsung Internet.jpg

Yeah these images are about 3 hours apart. I’ve also noticed some wildfires burning over in Idaho and far SE Washington. 

979B30D3-2C52-465E-91DD-5C7D8E939083.jpeg

14B75DB5-A2CA-43D2-82AF-27CB19DFA4FF.jpeg

Monthly rainfall-0.00”

Warm season rainfall-5.26”

+80s-27

+85s-9

+90s-3

+100s-2

Highest temp-106

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37 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Even that is pretty warm.  Salem just keeps overperforming.

Jim, I'm in Springfield, not Salem...60+ miles south of there and way worse in terms of weather.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 50 (Most recent: Apr 14, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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43 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Amazing day.  SEA appears to have topped out at 71, and is already down to 66.  On top of that the dew points are the lowest they've been in quite a while.  A reasonable July overall is looking like a better bet all the time.

We just barely made it thru the first week. 

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The air has a totally different feel to it this evening.  Much more refreshing.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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9 minutes ago, CloudBFIWx said:

I’m genuinely curious how Mass feels about this. The study have yet been peer reviewed but it appears to be extensive with about 27 international scientists involved. 
 

https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/western-north-american-extreme-heat-virtually-impossible-without-human-caused-climate-change/

S**t like this is why so many people don’t trust climate science/scientists.

Said claim is vague and impossible to verify. Similar events *have* happened through the Holocene (the Medieval Mega-Droughts being just one example).
 

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39 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Just realize that the models show that today is expected to be one of the 2 coolest days in the next two weeks.

gfs-ensemble-all-KSEA-daily_tmin_tmax-5680800.png

ecmwf-ensemble-KSEA-daily_tmin_tmax-5659200.png

They've been busting high a lot...especially the GFS.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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9 minutes ago, CloudBFIWx said:

I’m genuinely curious how Mass feels about this. The study have yet been peer reviewed but it appears to be extensive with about 27 international scientists involved. 
 

https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/western-north-american-extreme-heat-virtually-impossible-without-human-caused-climate-change/

They lost me at the virtually impossible.  Totally irresponsible.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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13 minutes ago, Phil said:

S**t like this is why so many people don’t trust climate science/scientists.

Said claim is vague and impossible to verify. Similar events *have* happened through the Holocene (the Medieval Mega-Droughts being just one example).
 

Or, perhaps, is it implied that the LIA climate regime would *not* have supported such an event, and that humans have a hand in pulling the system out of that regime faster than would otherwise be the case, hence bear responsibility for the event occurring at this point in time..?

In which case I might agree. That’s is a plausible take. But the headline here is largely a disaster. It is misleading, seemingly designed to attract clicks and social media buzz more than anything else. Lame. 💤💤💤

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12 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

They've been busting high a lot...especially the GFS.

Still... today might be the coolest day in sight.   Maybe again late next week in 9 days.  The general theme seems to be near normal on the coolest days and lots of warmer than normal days in between.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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