July 2021 PNW Weather Discussion

[Timmy Supercell]

I'm not sure what route we should continue to take for the fires and overall summer. Just two more weeks of windy/dry/sunny days with below 10% humidity? I know lightning is another evil but some kind of outbreak or two soon might sound nice. 

[Front Ranger]

58 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Even if you were to play make believe and turn June 26-28 into a mortal event that was within climo expectations, it’s been a pretty hot summer thus far for most of the region. Wouldn’t take much effort at all for it to end up one of the hottest on record at this point, Mr. Spiketheballatthe42yardline. 

Did I not just call it a historic heatwave?

There was hyperbole galore about the rest of the summer and the general downfall of the climate during and after it...it's ok to acknowledge it was pretty over the top.

And so far, there's no denying that aside from the heatwave, it's been a fairly typical summer. And no sign of any real heat on the way. Though the current dry streak is certainly becoming notable.

[Omegaraptor]

15 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

Updated high for yesterday, the late evening 6-hour max on mesowest confirmed a 98 degree high, ties an 1898 record. That also made a 53 degree change from the low.

92/36 yesterday here. 56 degree spread.

[Timmy Supercell]

We're late enough into July that places down here will end up with a top tier July even if 10 days at the end are exactly normal with a couple cool ones.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

6 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Did I not just call it a historic heatwave?

There was hyperbole galore about the rest of the summer and the general downfall of the climate during and after it...it's ok to acknowledge it was pretty over the top.

And so far, there's no denying that aside from the heatwave, it's been a fairly typical summer. And no sign of any real heat on the way. Though the current dry streak is certainly becoming notable.

Hitting 90F on most of the days is typical I guess...

I remember that being considered a hot day as a kid.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

12 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

My birthday is on August 4th, and I was born just two weeks before the B&B Complex Fire started which burned Santiam Pass. What was it like before the fire, if you remember? I never got to see it, and the big field of sticks is what I know of Santiam Pass. Up in the subalpine zone the forest will take decades to recover.

I knew that area very well before it burned. I had just turned 19 when the fire started. We had actually been in Sisters a couple days before, so I got to see it one final time before it burned. 

It was a beautiful area. The forest from Lost Lake up to Hogg Rock was particularly beautiful. Big mature Douglas and Noble Fir. Up on the pass itself the forest was a little more stunted, but it was a full forested area, it looked absolutely nothing like it does now. At the time I did not realize how it would never recover in my lifetime. It's hard to believe it has been nearly twenty years when driving through there. The Beachie Creek burn scar will probably heal much quicker being lower elevation. 

The area east of the pass, above Suttle Lake burned in 2002, the year before the B&B Fire. 

[Timmy Supercell]

If this was July 2019; I think most if not all of the PNW was pretty normal, down to Mount Shasta and up to the Canadian Border.

[TacomaWaWx]

3 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Hitting 90F on most of the days is typical I guess...

I remember that being considered a hot day as a kid.

Just like Andrew said…the heat in Oregon SW WA and eastern WA has been pretty impressive this year. It’s been more tolerable around the Puget sound but still at my location we ran +4.2 last month and we’re +2.0 this month. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Hitting 90F on most of the days is typical I guess...

I remember that being considered a hot day as a kid.

Yeah, we had 3 separate heatwaves in June, now two in July...

June 1st heatwave peaked
SLE: 97

PDX: 95 

EUG: 93

June 21st heatwave peaked:

PDX: 97

SLE: 96

EUG: 95

So let's not pretend we had one freak heat event in late June. The month had already seen two significant heatwaves BEFORE the granddaddy of them all. 

[Deweydog]

13 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Did I not just call it a historic heatwave?

There was hyperbole galore about the rest of the summer and the general downfall of the climate during and after it...it's ok to acknowledge it was pretty over the top.

And so far, there's no denying that aside from the heatwave, it's been a fairly typical summer. And no sign of any real heat on the way. Though the current dry streak is certainly becoming notable.

It was an historic heatwave, but what I was saying is that if it were something more in line with climo, much of the region would still be in a high-end position with respect to warm anomalies.

It has generally been a pretty reasonable July, for at least a decent chunk of the region… Flatiron/Jim FTW!!!

[Timmy Supercell]

20 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

My birthday is on August 4th, and I was born just two weeks before the B&B Complex Fire started which burned Santiam Pass. What was it like before the fire, if you remember? I never got to see it, and the big field of sticks is what I know of Santiam Pass. Up in the subalpine zone the forest will take decades to recover.

Yeah been to Detroit Lake a couple times. I heard the entire adjacent community burned beyond salvaging. I took pictures of what seemed like nearly every tree there standing in Aug 2010, plus an above average water level for the lake.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

Yeah been to Detroit Lake a couple times. I heard the entire adjacent community burned beyond salvaging. I took pictures of what seemed like nearly every tree there standing in Aug 2010, plus an above average water level for the lake.

Basically the entire town of Detroit burned except for the Mountain High Grocery. 

[Timmy Supercell]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Yeah, we had 3 separate heatwaves in June, now two in July...

June 1st heatwave peaked
SLE: 97

PDX: 95 

EUG: 93

June 21st heatwave peaked:

PDX: 97

SLE: 96

EUG: 95

So let's not pretend we had one freak heat event in late June. The month had already seen two significant heatwaves BEFORE the granddaddy of them all. 

Yup I had three points in June consist of record highs. It wasn't "the" heatwave.

06/01/2021 - 94/51 (92 in 1986)***
06/02/2021 - 95/50 (92 in 1924)***
06/03/2021 - 90/50 (96 in 1987)

06/18/2021 - 92/44 (99 in 1985)
06/19/2021 - 94/49 (96 in 2017)
06/20/2021 - 97/47 (93 in 1945)***
06/21/2021 - 96/52 (97 in 1992)
06/22/2021 - 87/56 (100 in 1992)
06/23/2021 - 88/41 (100 in 1992)
06/24/2021 - 91/49 (97 in 1940)
06/25/2021 - 91/44 (98 in 1922)
06/26/2021 - 94/50 (98 in 2015)
06/27/2021 - 101/57 (96 in 2015)***
06/28/2021 - 103/60 (96 in 1937)***
06/29/2021 - 100/54 (97 in 1924)***
06/30/2021 - 94/51 (100 in 1918)

07/01/2021 - 93/55 (98 in 2015)
07/02/2021 - 94/51 (101 in 2013)
07/03/2021 - 96/55 (101 in 1991)
07/04/2021 - 94/51 (98 in 1991)
07/05/2021 - 96/49 (98 in 2007)
07/06/2021 - 96/51 (96 in 1906)***
07/07/2021 - 91/45 (97 in 1898)
07/08/2021 - 91/44 (100 in 1905)
07/09/2021 - 98/45 (98 in 1898)***
 

[Front Ranger]

14 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Hitting 90F on most of the days is typical I guess...

I remember that being considered a hot day as a kid.

Beyond your backyard. I'm talking about where other people live, too.

And it hasn't hit 90 on most the days since 6/1 even where you live.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

A couple pics I took a few weeks ago going up the Santiam Canyon. Was riding in the car so not the best quality. This was about as lush a forest you would ever find in W. Oregon. 

"Little Sweden"

Just outside of Gates near Minto Park

The former townsite of Detroit. There were several blocks of houses between this spot and the lake. You can see the campers some folks are living in as they wait to rebuild. 

[Front Ranger]

13 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Yeah, we had 3 separate heatwaves in June, now two in July...

June 1st heatwave peaked
SLE: 97

PDX: 95 

EUG: 93

June 21st heatwave peaked:

PDX: 97

SLE: 96

EUG: 95

So let's not pretend we had one freak heat event in late June. The month had already seen two significant heatwaves BEFORE the granddaddy of them all. 

It's pretty normal to have some 90s days by mid July in the Willamette valley.

[Deweydog]

6 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Beyond your backyard. I'm talking about where other people live, too.

And it hasn't hit 90 on most the days since 6/1 even where you live.

17 out of 31 days in January 1950 were above freezing at PDX.

Why that month gets so much attention around here is beyond me.

[BLI snowman]

 

Just now, Front Ranger said:

It's pretty normal to have some 90s days by mid July in the Willamette valley.

 

16 days of 90+ and three days of 105+ by July 10 at Salem seems pretty normal....luckily only managed one 117 degree reading there so not too bad.

[MossMan]

Good Saturday morning! Seems like an easy going relaxing discussion going on this morning on the forum. 
Anyway, had a low of 51, and currently 62 and sunny! 

[Timmy Supercell]

While I was collecting over a gigabytes worth of photos on google, I found someone who was at the Oak Park Motel in Gates hours before that went down, you can tell from the sky that something was just wrong. 

And unbelievable how red the skies were in Stayton/Salem in the middle of the day.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

8 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

 

 

16 days of 90+ and three days of 105+ by July 10 at Salem seems pretty normal....luckily only managed one 117 degree reading there so not too bad.

We have moved beyond the realm of a rational discussion at this point. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

22 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Beyond your backyard. I'm talking about where other people live, too.

And it hasn't hit 90 on most the days since 6/1 even where you live.

16 out of the 19 days have hit 90+ here since summer started. The airport is a horrible representation of the south valley. iFred please end this shitt.

I'm so ready to move my family away from such a monotonous area for weather aside from the firestorms.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

6 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

While I was collecting over a gigabytes worth of photos on google, I found someone who was at the Oak Park Motel in Gates hours before that went down, you can tell from the sky that something was just wrong. 

And unbelievable how red the skies were in Stayton/Salem in the middle of the day.

Labor Day started off beautiful, but by evening the smoke and wind had descended on us. It was like a demon had taken over. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Labor Day started off beautiful, but by evening the smoke and wind had descended on us. It was like a demon had taken over. 

I remember it moving into town and we all knew we were fuckked.

[Omegaraptor]

15 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

A couple pics I took a few weeks ago going up the Santiam Canyon. Was riding in the car so not the best quality. This was about as lush a forest you would ever find in W. Oregon. 

"Little Sweden"

Just outside of Gates near Minto Park

The former townsite of Detroit. There were several blocks of houses between this spot and the lake. You can see the campers some folks are living in as they wait to rebuild. 

It really was a gorgeous drive before. Even when I was really young my eyes would always be glued to the window from Stayton to Bend/Sunriver. In a way it still is, and at lower elevation I’ll see it recover over the next several years, but it’s sad driving through and seeing just how much of the canyon burned.

[BLI snowman]

6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

We have moved beyond the realm of a rational discussion at this point. 

Unless every variation of heat record is absolutely shattered in absolutely every location, then it's not impressive.

February 2011 on the other hand....

[Timmy Supercell]

6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Labor Day started off beautiful, but by evening the smoke and wind had descended on us. It was like a demon had taken over. 

That was the quickest change in observations I have ever witnessed. I think we were calm when the sun was up that evening, with an AQI of 20. You can see 10 miles across. Sun goes down and suddenly there's 60+ mph winds in downtown K-Falls. Smoke blew in as if something just erupted. In less than an hour the air became hazardous. That was the start of the Chiloquin 242 fire. It started as a smoldering glow, to like a 2-3 mile across wildfire in one night.

I have a strong feeling the end of summer will be completely different from last year.

[Omegaraptor]

Death Valley 119 at 11 AM. Yesterday it was 115 at the same time. Hmmmmm

[Phil]

2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Translate for us... does this mean a continuation of cold and troughy for the rest of the summer now?

Lets just say, there’s a chance that I’ve made the worst summer prediction in all of human history, and what actually happens ends up  being (almost) the opposite of my original idea.

Still think late August will roast but..lol.

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

Lets just say, there’s a chance that I’ve made the worst summer prediction in all of human history, and what actually happens ends up  being (almost) the opposite of my original idea.

Still think late August will roast but..lol.

Interesting.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Looking forward to the record-cold October here.

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF certainly not backing off the troughing... the coolest and cloudiest days are still Thursday and Friday and its sunny again by Saturday afternoon.

[Timmy Supercell]

3 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Looking forward to the record-cold October here.

Say hi to another dry October for the 5th year straight.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

2 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

Say hi to another dry October for the 5th year straight.

It seems to be our wheelhouse for cold temps of late for this location. Our coldest temp of this water year was 23F back on Oct 26. Seems weird that this location typically sees our coldest anomalies around by birthday but it's kinda cool too.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

It really was a gorgeous drive before. Even when I was really young my eyes would always be glued to the window from Stayton to Bend/Sunriver. In a way it still is, and at lower elevation I’ll see it recover over the next several years, but it’s sad driving through and seeing just how much of the canyon burned.

In a way I have come to some measure of peace with it. It was and probably always will be one of the more traumatic events of my life. Not only the terror of having to evacuate at a moments notice as the fire bore down on us, but also losing so many places we loved, knowing so many people who lost everything. But I did gain a lot more empathy. When I hear about a wildfire in California or some other place causing people to flee, that hits home a lot harder now. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

20 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

That was the quickest change in observations I have ever witnessed. I think we were calm when the sun was up that evening, with an AQI of 20. You can see 10 miles across. Sun goes down and suddenly there's 60+ mph winds in downtown K-Falls. Smoke blew in as if something just erupted. In less than an hour the air became hazardous. That was the start of the Chiloquin 242 fire. It started as a smoldering glow, to like a 2-3 mile across wildfire in one night.

I have a strong feeling the end of summer will be completely different from last year.

I am hopeful we see some troughing in early September. It's in the realm of possibility. Hoping for a soaker in mid-July is just unrealistic in our climate. 

[snow_wizard]

No doubt the model runs that link the eastern GOA cutoff low with the out of season PV the deeper the trough we end up with over the NW in the 5 to 7 day period.  The 12z ECMWF was a big step in the right direction vs the 0z.

Meanwhile...another very pleasant day today.

[TT-SEA]

This pattern being shown for next weekend and into the following week appears to be different at the surface than our current pattern of the marine layer moving inland each morning and burning back to the coast... the ECMWF is insisting that this pattern is devoid of almost all marine layer clouds even at the coast.   Its just wall to wall sunshine for the most part after Saturday morning.

[snow_wizard]

11 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I am hopeful we see some troughing in early September. It's in the realm of possibility. Hoping for a soaker in mid-July is just unrealistic in our climate. 

Yeah....July has always been very dry here.  As I've mentioned before it was actually drier during the first quarter of the 20th century when the Pacific High totally dominated over the 4CH.

One thing we all know for sure is the troughs will come later this year.  There is always two sides of the coin in these amplified regimes.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The other thing we should mention. These fires really are related to climate change. Once an area like the Bootleg Fire is impacting burns, it will not regrow with the same vegetation that previously was there. Some of these areas may never be forested again (At least for the next few hundred years.), these fires are part of the process of climate change changing our region.