July 2021 PNW Weather Discussion

[SilverFallsAndrew]

For all the talk about troughing and cool weather, well the coolest forecast high at SLE the next 7 days is 79 on Friday. By Monday we are back to 90. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Next week is looking like 85-90. Maybe a cool down for the weekend to around 80 and then back to low 90s by the end of the run (GFS). If we avoid extreme heat, we probably just settle for top 5 warm July. But plenty of time for that to change for the last week of the month. A big heatwave would push us over the top. Sure nothing in sight that would tamp down the fire season. 

[Meatyorologist]

Today will be one minute and forty two seconds SHORTER than yesterday! 

[Kayla]

7 hours ago, Omegaraptor said:

Gotta say, feel bad for Kayla right now. Montana (and Saskatchewan + southern Alberta) is about to transform into Texas for the foreseeable future. The death ridge just gets stuck there forever on the models.

Yeah its already a summer to forget out here. Already 11 90+ days in Bozeman this year (3 in my backyard) with a whole lot more in our future.

June went down as the second warmest on record with an average temp of 67.1F good enough for a 8.5 degree departure. July looks to give 2007 (all-time record hot month) a run for its money. Seems like the only thing preventing a record warm month is the monsoonal moisture and smoke at this point.

[TT-SEA]

55 minutes ago, Kayla said:

Yeah its already a summer to forget out here. Already 11 90+ days in Bozeman this year (3 in my backyard) with a whole lot more in our future.

June went down as the second warmest on record with an average temp of 67.1F good enough for a 8.5 degree departure. July looks to give 2007 (all-time record hot month) a run for its money. Seems like the only thing preventing a record warm month is the monsoonal moisture and smoke at this point.

Its so strange to see you talking about warmth... it seems like almost every post about your local weather for the last few years has been about ridiculous cold and snow.   Even in the summer!

We will be driving through there in a couple weeks.   My wife assumes Montana is always brown, hot, and smoky because that is how it looks every time we pass through.   I have been telling her about being buried in snow in May and June and September and temps in the 20s there and she thinks I am making it all up.   We have been through there probably 20 times and hot and smoky is now imprinted on her brain!   Not that she would be impressed by seeing cold and snow in the summer either... she would say that is awful too.   

[TT-SEA]

The 06Z ECMWF shifted west... took away the rain that the 00Z run showed here on Friday.   Hopefully the 12Z run brings it back.

[MossMan]

Had a low of 51.

[TT-SEA]

Smoke has started to accumulate east of the Cascades... but the incoming trough should be enough to kick that out to the east.  

[ShawniganLake]

Really not much sign of the heat breaking or fire situation calming east of the cascades

[ShawniganLake]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Smoke has started to accumulate east of the Cascades... but the incoming trough should be enough to kick that out to the east.  

305 fires in BC currently. It looks like a lot of that smoke was headed south yesterday 

[TacomaWaWx]

15 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Really not much sign of the heat breaking or fire situation calming east of the cascades

Pattern change coming up doesn’t look like anything special west of the crest either. 3-4 days in the low 70s and a little light rain then back to upper 70s low 80s by the weekend. Big whoop.

[TacomaWaWx]

Low of 54 this morning. Still cloudy for the time being. 

[snow drift]

9 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Really not much sign of the heat breaking or fire situation calming east of the cascades

Climatology dictates that we are entering the hottest and driest part of the summer. Late June won't likely be repeated, but a deep trough entrenching over the NW isn't likely either.

[TT-SEA]

6 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

305 fires in BC currently. It looks like a lot of that smoke was headed south yesterday 

Doesn't look too terrible up there this morning...

[TacomaWaWx]

Bootleg fire is 201k acres as of this morning. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Bootleg fire is 201k acres as of this morning. 

Pretty amazing. I would bet it runs all the way out of the forestlands onto the high desert at this point. 

[TacomaWaWx]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Pretty amazing. I would bet it runs all the way out of the forestlands onto the high desert at this point. 

Was like 13k just a few days ago. Looks like the Jack fire is 12k and the grand view fire is 4.5k. Not sure about the Detroit fire. 

[snow drift]

The haze has returned.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Was like 13k just a few days ago. Looks like the Jack fire is 12k and the grand view fire is 4.5k. Not sure about the Detroit fire. 

The good news about the Jack Fire and the Grandview Fire is they are in much more accessible areas and closer to resources. Also though the forest in the Umpqua basin is very dry, its not anything compared to the area the Bootleg Fire is burning. It seems like they have a handle on that one. 

The marine push the next few days will help raise humidity west of the crest, but the winds it brings east of the crest could complicate fire fighting there. 

[Farmboy]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Smoke has started to accumulate east of the Cascades... but the incoming trough should be enough to kick that out to the east.  

It's super bad here today.  Ugh.  Seems like there's fires everywhere now. North Idaho desperately needs rain..

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, Farmboy said:

It's super bad here today.  Ugh.  Seems like there's fires everywhere now. North Idaho desperately needs rain..

Not going to happen unfortunately. But the good news is Tim and Mossman are having amazing summers. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Looks like we got down to 55F last night. Beautiful out there and 69F.

[Front Ranger]

12z GFS is taking the trough/ULL in the mid range further offshore, unfortunately. No bueno.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

12z GFS is taking the trough/ULL in the mid range further offshore, unfortunately. No bueno.

As expected. 

[TacomaWaWx]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

As expected. 

This summer hasn’t really been one of good news so far. Guess I’m glad I just live in an area that’s been faring better than most of the region. 

[Jesse]

50 minutes ago, sand dune said:

Climatology dictates that we are entering the hottest and driest part of the summer. Late June won't likely be repeated, but a deep trough entrenching over the NW isn't likely either.

Climatology didn’t seem to matter too much when we were struggling to get a drop of rain all spring, and hitting highs 40 degrees above average at the end of June. Heaven forbid we ever see anything even approaching the other side of the coin though. Might need a light jacket

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

As expected. 

Not by everyone. 

[Front Ranger]

6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

As expected. 

The Euro last night was quite a bit better. Hopefully the 12z stays that way.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

4 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Climatology didn’t seem to matter too much when we were struggling to get a drop of rain all spring, and hitting highs 40 degrees above average at the end of June. Heaven forbid we ever see anything even approaching the other side of the coin though.

In "winter" that's reserved for areas north of Lane County and east of the Cascades, then down to the rest of the nation.

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

The Euro last night was quite a bit better. Hopefully the 12z stays that way.

The last 3 runs of the ECMWF have shifted it a little west of the previous run... and resulted in less rain here on Friday.

[Jesse]

2 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

In "winter" that's reserved for areas north of Lane County and east of the Cascades, then down to the rest of the nation.

Most of the nation had a warm winter.

[ShawniganLake]

54 minutes ago, sand dune said:

Climatology dictates that we are entering the hottest and driest part of the summer. Late June won't likely be repeated, but a deep trough entrenching over the NW isn't likely either.

Dig offshore or skim by to the north.  Sounds about right.  Or perhaps a hybrid. Dig offshore and then skim by to the north. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Weak onshore flow = major troughing.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

We are in a long term drought which began in 2013, unless you view things through that context you will end up looking very foolish talking about mid-July troughing. 

[snow drift]

11 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Dig offshore or skim by to the north.  Sounds about right.  Or perhaps a hybrid. Dig offshore and then skim by to the north. 

Nobody over here wanted a dry spring. A dry spring is the worst case scenario, because we are heading into our normally dry summer months.

[ShawniganLake]

10 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Weak onshore flow = major troughing.

Feels like the payback will be a late July and early august heat event. 
 

I actually think fall might show up early this year though. 

[TacomaWaWx]

5 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Feels like the payback will be a late July and early august heat event. 
 

I actually think fall might show up early this year though. 

Didn’t show up here til mid September last year. Early September would be nice. I’m definitely feeling atleast 2 more heatwaves before summers over with lots of average/above in between. 

[TacomaWaWx]

Hard to tell but just noticed a fire on satellite north of banks lake. 

[snow drift]

9 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Feels like the payback will be a late July and early august heat event. 
 

I actually think fall might show up early this year though. 

I remember some significant troughing in late August 2015. It was rather abrupt. 

[TacomaWaWx]

2 minutes ago, sand dune said:

I remember some significant troughing in late August 2015. It was rather abrupt. 

Pretty wild late summer windstorm too. Lot of rain. Something like that would be welcome IMO.