TigerWoodsLibido Posted November 5, 2021 Report Share Posted November 5, 2021 5 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said: I don't even see temps that support it... The snow totals are probly from terrain bleed and not hi res enough. 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 5, 2021 Report Share Posted November 5, 2021 2 minutes ago, MossMan said: Dashing our hopes with Euro temp maps is usually Tims job! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted November 5, 2021 Report Share Posted November 5, 2021 1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said: Just need a bit colder air mass. Do we... the Euro says that is a lie 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 5, 2021 Report Share Posted November 5, 2021 Just now, TigerWoodsLibido said: The snow totals are probly from terrain bleed and not hi res enough. My exact thoughts. 6z GFS in 2 hours 57 minutes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted November 5, 2021 Report Share Posted November 5, 2021 Small little wind event for parts of western Oregon in there too, though lot of inconsistency with strength and track. 1 2 Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted November 5, 2021 Report Share Posted November 5, 2021 1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said: The snow totals are probly from terrain bleed and not hi res enough. The Euro isn't that bad, or is it.... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 5, 2021 Report Share Posted November 5, 2021 5 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said: I don't think I have ever seen the Euro show something like this, very strange. Maybe 41° snow in November is the flip side of late June 2021.... It actually looks like upper 30s at times. Still pretty hard to pull off. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted November 5, 2021 Report Share Posted November 5, 2021 It does feel like it is terrain bleeding. With exception of perhaps Randy and Tim, they'll likely see some snow. But the totals at Chris' location is high, so he'll likely see something. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted November 5, 2021 Report Share Posted November 5, 2021 5 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said: I don't think I have ever seen the Euro show something like this, very strange. Maybe 41° snow in November is the flip side of late June 2021.... Maybe the Euro is so happy with colder temps it got carried away 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted November 5, 2021 Report Share Posted November 5, 2021 1 minute ago, Cloud said: It does feel like it is terrain bleeding. With exception of perhaps Randy and Tim, they'll likely see some snow. But the totals at Chris' location is high, so he'll likely see something. No way in hell I see any form of snow this weekend. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 5, 2021 Report Share Posted November 5, 2021 925mb temps only drop to the 0 to +1 range on the Euro. Just not cold enough for snow. Maybe a mix though. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 5, 2021 Report Share Posted November 5, 2021 Nice east wind pattern setting up after Day 6. C'MON!!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted November 5, 2021 Report Share Posted November 5, 2021 4 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said: No way in hell I see any form of snow this weekend. Although we did experience a portal to hell in June. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 5, 2021 Report Share Posted November 5, 2021 No favorable blocking or retrogression. Yet. Patience. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted November 5, 2021 Report Share Posted November 5, 2021 20 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said: No way in hell I see any form of snow this weekend. Reverse psychology! We were planning on going out to Ocean Shores this weekend as the tides are low for shellfish but it just got canceled due to the weather out there this Saturday. Oof. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted November 5, 2021 Report Share Posted November 5, 2021 1 minute ago, Cloud said: Reverse psychology! We were planning on going out to Ocean Shores this weekend as the tides are low for shellfish but it just got canceled due to the weather out there this Saturday. Oof. King Tides!! And there will be no snow here. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 5, 2021 Report Share Posted November 5, 2021 The GEM is very similar to the GFS in showing a cold snap setting in around day 10. The ECMWF fumbles the football on that for now. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 5, 2021 Report Share Posted November 5, 2021 9 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: No favorable blocking or retrogression. Yet. Patience. The GFS and GEM get pretty decent. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 5, 2021 Report Share Posted November 5, 2021 Weatherbell did update their winter forecast. Much colder for us than the one they issued last month. That N to S gradient in the West suggest some nice cold air / mild moist air battles. 1 1 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted November 5, 2021 Report Share Posted November 5, 2021 45 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: Me neither. You just beat me to it. Nothing even close. I was just looking at the precip type and rates.... these may very well be evap cooling, looks quite heavy at times. We'll see. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted November 5, 2021 Report Share Posted November 5, 2021 3 minutes ago, Cloud said: I was just looking at the precip type and rates.... these may very well be evap cooling, looks quite heavy at times. We'll see. Not here. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 5, 2021 Report Share Posted November 5, 2021 7 minutes ago, Cloud said: I was just looking at the precip type and rates.... these may very well be evap cooling, looks quite heavy at times. We'll see. Yeah....850s will be around -4. Given the right situation that could bring some wet snow to the hills. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted November 5, 2021 Author Report Share Posted November 5, 2021 1 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 5, 2021 Report Share Posted November 5, 2021 3 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said: Maybe brief freezing rain east of I-205, western Gorge. Raging east winds too. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 5, 2021 Report Share Posted November 5, 2021 6z NAM 3km Saturday Wind storm for the central WA Coast, Northern Puget Sound, Bellingham. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted November 5, 2021 Report Share Posted November 5, 2021 1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said: 6z NAM 3km Saturday Wind storm for the central WA Coast, Northern Puget Sound, Bellingham. Feel like there's some uncertainty and potential with that Tuesday low. Will be interesting to see what happens. 1 Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 5, 2021 Report Share Posted November 5, 2021 1 minute ago, Requiem said: Feel like there's some uncertainty and potential with that Tuesday low. Will be interesting to see what happens. Agreed. 12z runs today could be quite fun! 12z ECMWF in 9 hours 20 minutes 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 5, 2021 Report Share Posted November 5, 2021 The always trusty 00z NAVGEM 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted November 5, 2021 Report Share Posted November 5, 2021 Night shift Rob? 2 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 5, 2021 Report Share Posted November 5, 2021 1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said: Night shift Rob? Perhaps. Will be in/out of room working on music. It's a mix of porn music, banjo, and yodeling. I think it will be huge. 1 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 5, 2021 Report Share Posted November 5, 2021 My latest Bass Beat/Instrumental 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 5, 2021 Report Share Posted November 5, 2021 6z NAM looking possibly ominous with Tuesday's low... Deepening and that perfect southwesterly trajectory. A lack of strong jet support though may inhibit if not prevent a strong wind storm. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 5, 2021 Report Share Posted November 5, 2021 6z ICON 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 5, 2021 Report Share Posted November 5, 2021 6z GFS Here we go! 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 5, 2021 Report Share Posted November 5, 2021 6z GFS 7 Day Rainfall totals. Wowza! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted November 5, 2021 Author Report Share Posted November 5, 2021 ok we're in business.... 2 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted November 5, 2021 Author Report Share Posted November 5, 2021 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 5, 2021 Report Share Posted November 5, 2021 7 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said: Very strong winds aloft. If any of that can mix down fun times. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 5, 2021 Report Share Posted November 5, 2021 11/5/21 4:11 AM PDX NWS Forecast Discussion All eyes on Monday night-Tuesday morning Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 401 AM PDT Fri Nov 5 2021 .LONG TERM...Monday through Thursday...Over the past 24 hours, models have trended toward developing one more low offshore - perhaps the strongest of the series. The 06z GFS shows 130+ kt jet energy rounding the base of the persistent upper trough, interacting with a sharp baroclinic zone along 40N. If this jet setup verifies, the 06z GFS and 00z ECMWF deterministic runs are on the right track in developing a strong low pressure system off the Oregon Coast Monday, which would then curl northward before making landfall somewhere between Newport and southern Vancouver Island. The 06z GFS develops this system into a 978 mb low just off Astoria by Tuesday morning. This would no doubt be a significant wind event throughout the forecast area. This solution has the support of several ensemble members, so we will have to keep a close eye on this. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 5, 2021 Report Share Posted November 5, 2021 1 hour ago, DJ Droppin said: 11/5/21 4:11 AM PDX NWS Forecast Discussion All eyes on Monday night-Tuesday morning Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 401 AM PDT Fri Nov 5 2021 .LONG TERM...Monday through Thursday...Over the past 24 hours, models have trended toward developing one more low offshore - perhaps the strongest of the series. The 06z GFS shows 130+ kt jet energy rounding the base of the persistent upper trough, interacting with a sharp baroclinic zone along 40N. If this jet setup verifies, the 06z GFS and 00z ECMWF deterministic runs are on the right track in developing a strong low pressure system off the Oregon Coast Monday, which would then curl northward before making landfall somewhere between Newport and southern Vancouver Island. The 06z GFS develops this system into a 978 mb low just off Astoria by Tuesday morning. This would no doubt be a significant wind event throughout the forecast area. This solution has the support of several ensemble members, so we will have to keep a close eye on this. Spokane NWS talking about it also. "This is when the weather could get potentially active as a deep offshore trough heads slightly inland and sweeps up a surface low forecast to be off the southern Oregon coast by midnight and then northeastward overnight and into the morning." Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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