PNW November 2021 Wx Obs/Discussion

[Gradient Keeper]

I see how it is. I step away to work on music for 3 hours and this happens. I analyzed model trends very thoroughly starting at Day 5.5 and already noticed quite a change with the ridge over us and heights building offshore. Day 6 and 7 featured even larger changes with the kona low and more prominent building heights as the ridge flattens and backs off to the west for a perfect ridge merger. As soon as it takes place the block evolves nicely with the cut-off/kona low anchored under it. This is a very reasonable progression of the pattern. Seeing these trends the past 2 runs now beginning before Day 7 holds promise if you ask me. Let's keep this going the next several runs and hopefully the GEM/ECMWF will jump on board. Ya never know. C'MON!!!!

 

Day 5.5 (Past 4 runs)

Day 6 (Past 4 runs)

Day 7 (Past 4 runs)

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Not gonna look at the ensemble. It’ll just be a buzzkill. That’s the best run of the season so far.

[smerfylicious]

The ridge sliding offshore really is the key! Maybe I should say stuff!

Went on Tropical tidbits to get my WA map hunger satiated. A snow triple shot into clown range, then continental arctic mass just parks on us until the end of the run. UNREAL.

[van city]

1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Not gonna look at the ensemble. It’ll just be a buzzkill. That’s the best run of the season so far.

I think you should. 

[Gradient Keeper]

6z GEFS Day 9 (Past 4 runs) Following a similar progression wanting to back the ridge offshore and is trying hard for a ridge merger.

[Meatyorologist]

Just now, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Not gonna look at the ensemble. It’ll just be a buzzkill. That’s the best run of the season so far.

It's really one of the best runs since the GEM run a few days before this February blast... That had highs in the teens Redding north, and a 14/2 day at SeaTac. Obviously off its rocker, but the point stands.

Jan 2020 was the last time I saw something this cold on the GFS. Biblical numbers PDX north on a few of those.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Shitt there’s now 6 magic -8 balls on the ensemble. This night shift was worth staying up for!

[Gradient Keeper]

Definitely higher heights over central and western Alaska compared to previous runs.

[smerfylicious]

So how do we keep this secret? Don't tell Tim? 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 10 (Past 4 runs) It's trying, but just not there yet. If this trend continues with backing the ridge offshore a nice ridge merger will occur and we will score big time.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Aight I’ma hit the hay. Hopefully better runs ahead. Gonna be hard to top that one.

[Gradient Keeper]

Sooo close. Agonizingly close!

[smerfylicious]

3 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Sooo close. Agonizingly close!

Epic run, in believable range...will GFS lead in the KOLDest December run in over a decade like it led in the hottest in history?

Maybe GFS is our savior this year lmao

[Gradient Keeper]

Just now, smerfylicious said:

Epic run, in believable range...will GFS lead in the KOLDest December run in over a decade like it led in the hottest in history?

Maybe GFS is our savior this year lmao

King GFS

[Meatyorologist]

One more... This is not a sounding you see very often in Seattle. Isothermic at 11°F then cooling with height. Stupid cold and directly Arctic.

[Meatyorologist]

Sorry I totally lied but I needed to share this... Reverse convergence zone in the lee(?) of the Olympics over the ocean. Easterly flow doing work. iirc we had one of those in Dec 2009

[ShawniganLake]

[smerfylicious]

I'm surprised at the amount of runs that drop below -5 in similar time to the operational. Gives me a little hope that this could be the start of a beautiful friendship

[Phil]

18 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

I read somewhere that January 1950 was the most anomalous blocking episode on the entire planet during the 20th century.

In terms of the nature of the blocking, it’s definitely possible. It’s not the absolute strongest blocking episode we’ve observed, but it’s almost certainly the strongest -PNA ever observed.

The middle latitude NPAC was the center of action that winter. Might have to go back several hundred years for a similar event (in terms of the PNA).

[Gradient Keeper]

6z GFS Analog Composite Day 6-10, 8-14. Outstanding

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Anal logs gone wild.

[Kayla]

-40F lows and -20F for highs for here on the 06Z GFS... Very 1990 like!

[Snownerd3000]

Just woke up to the 6z run. 

 

[TT-SEA]

06Z run was crazy!  

On the rain front... KUIL had over 3 inches of rain yesterday and now at 44 inches of rain since October 1st which is over 20 inches above normal.    20 inches above normal in less than 2 months!    Unbelievable.   

Bellingham set a daily rain record yesterday with 1.43 inches and is now at 10.45 inches for just November which is 6.08 inches above normal.

SEA is at 9.11 inches for the month and almost 6 inches above normal since October 1st. 

And there is much more rain coming before November ends.

 

 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

A quick 3/4” of rain last night. Was coming down there for a bit. 

[TT-SEA]

The KUIL station averages 100 inches of rain per year... and that station will likely end up around 50 inches for just October and November.     

[SilverFallsAndrew]

24 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The KUIL station averages 100 inches of rain per year... and that station will likely end up around 50 inches for just October and November.     

Well they don’t get it in the summer. I smell January jet suppression. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Tim just found out it rains on the Washington coast...

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Tim just found out it rains on the Washington coast...

That is a non-statistical and non-weather person view of the situation... its very impressive from anomaly perspective.   And in fact its never been this wet out there for the the fall season... Seattle is also going to set a record for the wettest fall ever.

Side note... KUIL averages around 20 inches for the May - September period so they do get rain in the summer.   But I agree with your overall take on jet suppression being likely this winter.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

That is a non-statistical and non-weather person view of the situation... its very impressive from anomaly perspective.   And in fact its never been this wet out there for the the fall season... Seattle is also going to set a record for the wettest fall ever.

Side note... KUIL averages around 20 inches for the May - September period so they do get rain in the summer.   But I agree with your overall take on jet suppression being likely this winter.

Ok

[TT-SEA]

The inflection point on the upcoming pattern change is almost within the 7-day period now so the models should start focusing in on similar solutions over the next couple day.   The details seem to hinge on how the GOA trough splits which happens around next Friday and Saturday.    The fact the 06Z GFS went in a favorable direction for cold and snow makes me think there is a still a decent chance of something big happening.    

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Tim, on a side note. Have you ever played around with the PRISM time series location data for your area? I don't know quite where you live, but I was looking at a grid in the general vicinity, some elevation, just outside of North Bend. 

The coldest year in the 1895-present period was 1955, warmest year was 2015. The wettest year was 1990, last year was actually like 6th wettest. 2019 looked pretty dry. 

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Tim, on a side note. Have you ever played around with the PRISM time series location data for your area? I don't know quite where you live, but looking at a grid in the general vicinity, some elevation, just outside of North Bend. 

The coldest year in the 1895-present period was 1955, warmest year was 2015. The wettest year was 1990, last year was actually like 6th wettest. 2019 looked pretty dry. 

I have not really used that site.   I have seen it and remember playing around with it once.

2019 was definitely a dry year out here... and I think 2020 finished about 45 inches ahead of 2019 at the Cedar Falls station.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

I have not really used that site.   I have seen it and remember playing around with it once.

2019 was definitely a dry year out here... and I think 2020 finished with about 45 inches ahead of 2019 at the Cedar Falls station.

Looks like January 2020 was the 3rd wettest and February 2020 the 2nd wettest in your area. 

The wettest month for your location is December 1933, it is the wettest December here too, but the wettest month here was November 1973.  

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

06Z run was crazy!  

On the rain front... KUIL had over 3 inches of rain yesterday and now at 44 inches of rain since October 1st which is over 20 inches above normal.    20 inches above normal in less than 2 months!    Unbelievable.   

Bellingham set a daily rain record yesterday with 1.43 inches and is now at 10.45 inches for just November which is 6.08 inches above normal.

SEA is at 9.11 inches for the month and almost 6 inches above normal since October 1st. 

And there is much more rain coming before November ends.

 

 

 

Seattle has >50% more rain than Portland this month with more north/south gradient action in the coming days. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Don't think the 12z is going to be as good.

[ShawniganLake]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Don't think the 12z is going to be as good.

The GFS is flailing right now.  Not even close to the 6z

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Oh wow. Not good...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

At least we will always have the 06Z.

[ShawniganLake]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

At least we will always have the 06Z.

12z does show a bit of wet snow up around the border next weekend before the ridge builds overhead.