snow_wizard Posted November 26, 2021 Report Share Posted November 26, 2021 BTW...1949-50 had nothing until mid December. Lots of torching early. It's incredibly short sighted to say the winter is going to be warm based on Nov / early Dec temps. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 26, 2021 Report Share Posted November 26, 2021 18z GFS Rainfall totals ending 4 PM Monday Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 26, 2021 Report Share Posted November 26, 2021 2 minutes ago, snow drift said: One of these days, I would love to see a neutral winter. The Pacific jet causes too many problems during la niña winters. The mean for La Nina winters is cold. 2008 and 2016 were our two coldest winters of this century and both were Nina. If you want a -QBO cold Nina winter check out 1984-85. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownerd3000 Posted November 26, 2021 Report Share Posted November 26, 2021 Calling my shot. The historic -pdo overrides the epo. We get our ridge, and an epic 2nd half of December. The cold we see on the deteminstic models will be the teaser to the blast to end the year. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted November 26, 2021 Report Share Posted November 26, 2021 3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: The mean for La Nina winters is cold. 2008 and 2016 were our two coldest winters of this century and both were Nina. If you want a -QBO cold Nina winter check out 1984-85. I know some of them are cold, but some are warm, too. 1998, 1999, 2005, 2011, 2017, and 2020 were all pretty mild. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 26, 2021 Report Share Posted November 26, 2021 The 18z continues the trend of putting a higher percentage of the above normal heights off the coast in the early going. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 26, 2021 Report Share Posted November 26, 2021 4 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said: Calling my shot. The historic -pdo overrides the epo. We get our ridge, and an epic 2nd half of December. The cold we see on the deteminstic models will be the teaser to the blast to end the year. Some are getting way too hung up on the -QBO...which isn't even all that minus compared to years like 2007. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascadia_Wx Posted November 26, 2021 Report Share Posted November 26, 2021 2 hours ago, snow_wizard said: I think you're going to do fine this winter. I don't blame you for your attitude at all right now. I would be beyond bummed being in your shoes over the past few years. last few years have been warm everywhere 2 Quote Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 26, 2021 Report Share Posted November 26, 2021 The thing that's most surprising to me is people aren't waiting to see if the models are actually right about the major blocking coming up or not. All of this high EPO talk could well be moot in a week. 1 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 26, 2021 Report Share Posted November 26, 2021 18z GFS Day 5.5 (Past 4 runs) Devastating trends. Not looking favorable thus far. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 26, 2021 Report Share Posted November 26, 2021 That piece of energy is a bu'hole. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 26, 2021 Report Share Posted November 26, 2021 3 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said: last few years have been warm everywhere We're just taking about winter. There have been way more good bouts of winter in WA than OR the past few years. Especially if you're talking about OR south of PDX. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted November 26, 2021 Report Share Posted November 26, 2021 1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said: 18z GFS Day 5.5 (Past 4 runs) Devastating trends. Not looking favorable thus far. Looks like July. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 26, 2021 Report Share Posted November 26, 2021 Just now, DJ Droppin said: That piece of energy is a bu'hole. It rearranges later even if we biff the first try. The blocking is the big prize to begin with. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 26, 2021 Report Share Posted November 26, 2021 Just now, snow drift said: Looks like July. Just wait and see how the run unfolds. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 26, 2021 Report Share Posted November 26, 2021 3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: The thing that's most surprising to me is people aren't waiting to see if the models are actually right about the major blocking coming up or not. All of this high EPO talk could well be moot in a week. The list of things we’re all doing wrong is longer than a spoiled eight year old’s Xmas list. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascadia_Wx Posted November 26, 2021 Report Share Posted November 26, 2021 3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: We're just taking about winter. There have been way more good bouts of winter in WA than OR the past few years. Especially if you're talking about OR south of PDX. 1 Quote Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted November 26, 2021 Report Share Posted November 26, 2021 51 here with birds chirping outside 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted November 26, 2021 Report Share Posted November 26, 2021 10 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said: last few years have been warm everywhere Not in Eureka 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted November 26, 2021 Report Share Posted November 26, 2021 Truly a disgusting 18z run, unless you like inversions 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 26, 2021 Report Share Posted November 26, 2021 Helluva Kona low on the 18z. It's going to rearrange. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted November 26, 2021 Report Share Posted November 26, 2021 Over/under on Bachelor opening all lifts by Christmas? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted November 26, 2021 Report Share Posted November 26, 2021 25 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: 18z GFS Day 5.5 (Past 4 runs) Devastating trends. Not looking favorable thus far. Maine keeps getting the good stuff. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 26, 2021 Report Share Posted November 26, 2021 4 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said: Truly a disgusting 18z run, unless you like inversions Just wait. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted November 26, 2021 Report Share Posted November 26, 2021 4 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said: Truly a disgusting 18z run, unless you like inversions I like inversions and freezing fog. Hey, it's better than nothing. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 26, 2021 Report Share Posted November 26, 2021 Just now, Mr Marine Layer said: Maine keeps getting the good stuff. The blocking is the prize in the early going regardless of how it initially sets up. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder98 Posted November 26, 2021 Report Share Posted November 26, 2021 2 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said: Maine keeps getting the good stuff. Lets all move to Maine. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 26, 2021 Report Share Posted November 26, 2021 1 minute ago, Mr Marine Layer said: Maine keeps getting the good stuff. Mr Maine Layer is probably a fan of that. 2 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 26, 2021 Report Share Posted November 26, 2021 1 minute ago, snow drift said: I like inversions and freezing fog. Hey, it's better than nothing. I agree. Many of our coldest winters are a nice mix of real and fake cold. People really do need to patient here. 1 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted November 26, 2021 Report Share Posted November 26, 2021 3 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said: Over/under on Bachelor opening all lifts by Christmas? I’m worried it won’t open this year. I’d love to go up there and learn how to do snowshoeing. But it does not appear that snow is in the cards this go around. 1 2 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted November 26, 2021 Report Share Posted November 26, 2021 2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: I agree. Many of our coldest winters are a nice mix of real and fake cold. People really do need to patient here. Fake cold.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlTahoe Posted November 26, 2021 Report Share Posted November 26, 2021 52 minutes ago, snow drift said: We'll have periods of blocking, but the prevailing theme will be warmer. We will be approaching 60 on Sunday. The newest GFS has the 570 line over us by day 10. Two days ago it had the 522 line over us. Lol Looks like we will have to wait till Feb or March again for any meaningful weather as we have somehow lost the first 3 months of winter over the last 10 years. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 26, 2021 Report Share Posted November 26, 2021 Can't wait to see how the wave coming off of Asia breaks. Pretty epic amount of above normal heights to work with over the North Pacific. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted November 26, 2021 Report Share Posted November 26, 2021 3 minutes ago, Thunder98 said: Lets all move to Maine. Some like it hot 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 26, 2021 Report Share Posted November 26, 2021 Just now, AlTahoe said: The newest GFS has the 570 line over us by day 10. Two days ago it had the 522 line over us. Lol Looks like we will have to wait till Feb or March again for any meaningful weather as we have somehow lost the first 3 months of winter over the last 10 years. Reminds me of the mood on here in 2008. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted November 26, 2021 Report Share Posted November 26, 2021 Just now, AlTahoe said: The newest GFS has the 570 line over us by day 10. Two days ago it had the 522 line over us. Lol Looks like we will have to wait till Feb or March again for any meaningful weather as we have somehow lost the first 3 months of winter over the last 10 years. 2016 was the last decent December. Nowadays we torch in December and January. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 26, 2021 Report Share Posted November 26, 2021 3 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said: Fake cold.... If it happens with snow on the ground you might think differently. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joshua Lake Oswego Posted November 26, 2021 Report Share Posted November 26, 2021 3 minutes ago, AlTahoe said: The newest GFS has the 570 line over us by day 10. Two days ago it had the 522 line over us. Lol Looks like we will have to wait till Feb or March again for any meaningful weather as we have somehow lost the first 3 months of winter over the last 10 years. Winter starts in February and summer starts in April. It’s the new normal. 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 26, 2021 Report Share Posted November 26, 2021 2 minutes ago, snow drift said: 2016 was the last decent December. Nowadays we torch in December and January. And that will change. Have you noticed the GFS looks a bit different a little deeper into the run? Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlTahoe Posted November 26, 2021 Report Share Posted November 26, 2021 3 minutes ago, snow drift said: 2016 was the last decent December. Nowadays we torch in December and January. Yeah its crazy. 3 of our last 4 winters have come down to a 2 week storm period and that's it. Hopefully this years wasn't the 1 week storm we had in Oct. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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