PNW November 2021 Wx Obs/Discussion

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

30 minutes ago, Phil said:

Skagit River rule?  

How many of those floods occurred in the autumn vs the spring? And how many of those years featured analogous mean states and array(s) of pattern forcings with respect to time(of year)? Makes all the difference.

Having grown up in Skagit County, there are not major Spring floods.  Virtually all the major floods are around the November time frame.  

Since I have moved to Leavenworth, I have had anywhere between 59 and 120 inches of snow.  59 inches occured in my first year, and it was the year of the blob.  Had more snow in February that winter than any other month.

[Meatyorologist]

1 hour ago, Deweydog said:

Yeah… but how’s your stock portfolio???

I dropped off 2k into $SNOW this morning. I expect a 1500% increase in the next three months.

[snow_wizard]

31 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Jim will be in your neighborhood soon to pick the leaves off the trees to accelerate the winter transition. I’m sure he’s taken care of the Covington area already. 

They're pretty much totally bare here anyway.  We've a had few pretty hard frosts.

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

9 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Almost like random patterns produce wildly different analogs in the same season... rendering them basically useless?

I believe that analogs are essentially worthless until we have a much, much larger dataset available. 

[snow_wizard]

44 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

ARs and low elevation snow don't mix.

Tell that to Dec 1924 and Dec 1974.  If the details of the AR are correct they can have cold damming on the north side of the zone which results in precip changing to snow before the precip ends.  Then of course you have situation with an AR well south of us and brutal cold up here ala January 1862 and many others.  I generally consider AR's a good sign for things to come.  That is particularly true with the ones that come straight from the west like the one last week.

[snow_wizard]

6 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

I believe that analogs are essentially worthless until we have a much, much larger dataset available. 

You have to look for consistency if you are talking about the CPC analogs.  If you see the same one come up repeatedly over a period of time then it's more likely to have some meaning.  As I've said it's just one of many tools in the box.  The CPC wouldn't bother to use them if there wasn't something to them.

I think many on here are too close minded when it comes to long range forecasting.  If everyone had this point of view people wouldn't even bother to try.

[snow_wizard]

24 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

It's Nov 20th.

That too.

1949-50 didn't have sheit until mid December.

[snow_wizard]

24 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Airport with a misleading number and remains an awful measuring stick for Eugene/Springfield which DID NOT make it to freezing like the numbers will show.

This is why it's important to understand that the actual metro area, as opposed to a bunch of farmers' fields in the tiny hamlet of Alvadore, well NW of the city, is always worse than what the airport shows in terms of cold.

Last night's low temp was 38F NOT 32F, end of story!

I kind of agree with you.  In Seattle the sensor is in one of the worst places possible for radiational cooling, while in Eugene it's about the best possible spot.  It's kind of misleading on both ends of the spectrum.  I think the best way to go would be to use rural stations for official records on a consistent basis.  That way UHI doesn't become an increasingly major factor over time.  A lot of the record lows for SEA are pretty much untouchable from certain parts of the year due to such drastic changes to the surrounding environment.

[TT-SEA]

7 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

You have to look for consistency if you are talking about the CPC analogs.  If you see the same one come up repeatedly over a period of time then it's more likely to have some meaning.  As I've said it's just one of many tools in the box.  The CPC wouldn't bother to use them if there wasn't something to them.

I think many on here are too close minded when it comes to long range forecasting.  If everyone had this point of view people wouldn't even bother to try.

I am not sure the CPC uses those pattern analogs for long term forecasting.     Its more of a short term comparison thing.

[TacomaWaWx]

Couple of decent soakers next weekend on the euro to bump up the monthly totals. Gfs looks fairly wet too over the next week but more focus to western WA. We will see what happens but I think we’ve definitely got a shot at 10” of rain this month here. 

[snow_wizard]

56 minutes ago, Phil said:

Skagit River rule?  

How many of those floods occurred in the autumn vs the spring? And how many of those years featured analogous mean states and array(s) of pattern forcings with respect to time(of year)? Makes all the difference.

I'm smart enough to have screened them out.  Anyway almost all major floods on that river are in the autumn.  Laugh all you want.  You won't change my mind.  People are too close minded on here.  I have known about this Skagit River thing for a long time and it has worked every time since then.

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Couple of decent soakers next weekend on the euro to bump up the monthly totals. Gfs looks fairly wet too over the next week but more focus to western WA. We will see what happens but I think we’ve definitely got a shot at 10” of rain this month here. 

As much as I hate it this excessive wetness is a good sign historically speaking.

[TacomaWaWx]

As it stands right now we’re at 17.02” of rain this fall…only behind 2006 (17.88”) and 2016 (19.39”) locally both very much within reach. 

[TacomaWaWx]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

As much as I hate it this excessive wetness is a good sign historically speaking.

Worked out pretty good in 2006 and 2016. 

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm smart enough to have screened them out.  Anyway almost all major floods on that river are in the autumn.  Laugh all you want.  You won't change my mind.  People are too close minded on here.  I have known about this Skagit River thing for a long time and it has worked every time since then.

[snow_wizard]

6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I am not sure the CPC uses those pattern analogs for long term forecasting.     Its more of a short term comparison thing.

You could have a point there.  In a more general sense people like Bastardi use analogs for long range forecasting all the time.  They can be useful if used correctly.  As an aside 1970 came up every day for about 3 weeks a while back on the CPC analogs.  That is unquestionably an analog even though Phil refuses to comment on it.  I think it's a perfect blend of the out of control EPO winters like 2007-08 and the blocky ones like 1984-85 (in -QBO -ENSO winters).

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

As it stands right now we’re at 17.02” of rain this fall…only behind 2006 (17.88”) and 2016 (19.39”) locally both very much within reach. 

And those were both good winters....Hmmmmm...

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Maybe it's like the political spectrum?  I'm so open minded it makes me close minded... 

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

And those were both good winters....Hmmmmm...

November was very wet in my area in 1999.    

[snow_wizard]

BTW...I don't think anyone will be able find where I said this winter will be a 1949-50 redux.  I'm just quite confident it will be less raging zonal than 2007-08, and will probably have some legit cold.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

November was very wet in my area in 1999.    

I haven't seen anyone who thinks 1999 is an analog.  Solar max for one thing among others.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

I haven't seen anyone who thinks 1999 is an analog.  Solar max for one thing among others.

Lots of rain in November does not always lead to something great.

[Slushy Inch]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

The 12Z ECMWF is about as far as you can get from a GOA ridge at 240 hours... great news if you like 50-degree rain for days on end.

 

Looks more like mid to upper forties and lower as troughs move inland.

[TacomaWaWx]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Lots of rain in November does not always lead to something great.

Yeah that’s true. I just find it an interesting little tidbit. Honestly think the only real November correlation is the warm November being a good signal. Anything else is generally coincidental stuff. It has worked out ok the last 2 times though! 

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

Looks more like mid to upper forties and lower as troughs move inland.

Actually I was too low... ECMWF shows temps near 60 on day 9.    Its also shows rain that day.

 

[Slushy Inch]

53 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Actually I was too low... ECMWF shows temps near 60 on day 9.    Its also shows rain that day.

 

I guess that offshore low would pump a lot of southerly flow into the area  

[Dave]

26 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I kind of agree with you.  In Seattle the sensor is in one of the worst places possible for radiational cooling, while in Eugene it's about the best possible spot.  It's kind of misleading on both ends of the spectrum.  I think the best way to go would be to use rural stations for official records on a consistent basis.  That way UHI doesn't become an increasingly major factor over time.  A lot of the record lows for SEA are pretty much untouchable from certain parts of the year due to such drastic changes to the surrounding environment.

I live in town a couple of miles north of downtown, about 6 miles from the airport. My temps are almost always within a degree or two of the EUG sensor. It varies a bit more during extreme events, but those have been rare lately other than for heat.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 hour ago, Omegaraptor said:

Interesting being right on the edge of the inversion here in Corvallis. Walked to downtown and there was fog right over the river while the rest of Corvallis is sunny. Didn’t realize that fog was covering pretty much all of valley Linn, Lane, and Douglas counties until I looked at the satellite.

It’s weird being at 1600’ we have a much shorter fog season. Basically early December to late January. In terms of being socked in like that. 

[Cloud]

6 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Rain in western WA... it uh... finds a way.  

Jeff Goldblum is a freaking legend!! 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

8 minutes ago, Dave said:

I live in town a couple of miles north of downtown, about 6 miles from the airport. My temps are almost always within a degree or two of the EUG sensor. It varies a bit more during extreme events, but those have been rare lately other than for heat.

Yeah EUG is a lot cooler on clear nights than downtown or Springfield, but it’s pretty representative of north and western Eugene. My in laws live in that newer subdivision over by Meadowview School and they are usually about the same temp as the airport. 

[TT-SEA]

15 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

It’s weird being at 1600’ we have a much shorter fog season. Basically early December to late January. In terms of being socked in like that. 

I am not sure we have a fog season at all up here... it can happen but its pretty rare.    Any type of winter inversion usually results in at least some offshore flow which pushes the fog out of here.   

[Deweydog]

30 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I haven't seen anyone who thinks 1999 is an analog.  Solar max for one thing among others.

So the rain thing isn’t a thing?  I’m so confused…

[TacomaWaWx]

13 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

So the rain thing isn’t a thing?  I’m so confused…

You’re just too close minded

[snow_wizard]

You guys can judge for yourselves.  Has this autumn been more like 1970 or 2007?  I ran the composites for this year and those two Oct 15 to Nov 15.  Pretty shocking how similar this is to one of those other two.

 

[snow_wizard]

I think the situation over Canada has to be taken into account this year.  That huge positive height anom is very significant.

[snow_wizard]

Then you have 1999 which is in a different world from this year.  Very obvious the excessive rain that year was much more a SW trajectory.

 

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Then you have 1999 which is in a different world from this year.  Very obvious the excessive rain that year was much more a SW trajectory.

 

SEA was below normal for rainfall in November of 1970.       A little different this year.

[RentonHill]

12z EPS! 

[snow_wizard]

The 12z EPS still displaces the AK vortex in early December.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, RentonHillTC said:

12z EPS! 

Big shift westward with that trough in the long range... less upstream blocking.