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PNW November 2021 Wx Obs/Discussion


Meatyorologist

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Big shift westward with that trough in the long range... less upstream blocking.

It still shows a big shift though.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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January 2000 was actually pretty good up here. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

It still shows a big shift though.

Yeah... but looks more progressive.   Might be a good for mountain snow and to shut off the AR machine for awhile.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Yeah... but looks more progressive.   Might be a good for mountain snow and to shut off the AR machine for awhile.  

You know darn well things have to get blocky eventually.  I'm sure there are plenty of good members on that 12z EPS ensemble.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

You know darn well things have to get blocky eventually.  I'm sure there are plenty of good members on that 12z EPS ensemble.

I am not so sure about that.   And not all blocking means greatness.   I am certainly not seeing anything on the horizon yet.   There are probably always some good members on every ensemble run.

And I would love some blocking right now.    Not feeling it yet.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

You know darn well things have to get blocky eventually.  I'm sure there are plenty of good members on that 12z EPS ensemble.

I'm actually not so sure about that. Things don't "have" to get blocky. I'm hoping they do, but a weak GOA ridge pumping NW flow into the region could be all we muster this winter, and I wouldn't consider that as "blocking". Not that I wouldn't mind exorbitant amounts of mountain snowfall and decent rain in the lowlands. We've had plenty of snow down here in the last few years, it might be time to let an ecologically beneficial pattern take the reigns this go around.

Of course as you and I both know though, all it takes is a transient, albeit well timed, block to give us a nice couple day event. Just might need to get luckier than usual this winter.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

I'm actually not so sure about that. Things don't "have" to get blocky. I'm hoping they do, but a weak GOA ridge pumping NW flow into the region could be all we muster this winter, and I wouldn't consider that as "blocking". Not that I wouldn't mind exorbitant amounts of mountain snowfall and decent rain in the lowlands. We've had plenty of snow down here in the last few years, it might be time to let an ecologically beneficial pattern take the reigns this go around.

Of course as you and I both know though, all it takes is a transient, albeit well timed, block to give us a nice couple day event. Just might need to get luckier than usual this winter.

Yeah... could be 2 or 3 day thing in an otherwise zonal winter.   That is impossible to predict.   For now it feels like the Pacific is amped up for the foreseeable future. 

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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3 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

We've had a lot of runs from various models showing the Pacific ridge and Aleutian block joining in early December.  Certainly possible they are rushing it a tad.  I imagine the possible coming MJO wave will give things a kick in the butt.  I'm just impatient.  I'm well aware that what happens in the early going in no way reflects how a Nina winter will ultimately turn out.  I'm still betting we at least get something solid in December though.

To be honest the thing that been saving most of the USA from an all out crap pattern is we are getting some legit cases of negative NAO as phil said even if tempory it's good to see it back in some form after the last few  years of where it was hard to even buy a drop in the NAO.

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Yeah... could be 2 or 3 day thing in an otherwise zonal winter.   That is impossible to predict.   For now it feels like the Pacific is amped up for the foreseeable future. 

No point in getting into the specifics of a whole winter season in mid November. Many people tend to forget that our true "winters" only last for a few errant days on average, and are typically interspersed with mild thaws. Hard to base an entire winter's average pattern based on a couple of extreme outlier days.

It's like judging a shirt by how may holes it has. Sure, there may be one or two, maybe none. But those holes are usually no larger than the eraser head of a pencil, and hardly give us any information on the quality of the rest of the shirt. But even one small hole can stand out quite a bit :)

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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How blocky was 1970-71? I always thought that big January snow event was pretty maritime based, maybe a big block but pretty far west? I’m sure a few of you know. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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January 2012 was a washout, definitely not dominated by blocking, but delivered big time for many. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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3 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

We've had a lot of runs from various models showing the Pacific ridge and Aleutian block joining in early December.  Certainly possible they are rushing it a tad.  I imagine the possible coming MJO wave will give things a kick in the butt.  I'm just impatient.  I'm well aware that what happens in the early going in no way reflects how a Nina winter will ultimately turn out.  I'm still betting we at least get something solid in December though.

Models tend to suck alot of times in La nina years they often times struggle with the northern stream domminated pattern in ninas which is one reason I don't buy anything beowed 5 days or so in La ninas.way to many times here models showed great patterns storms 7 or more days out only to pull the rug right out as we got close.La ninas can be some of the most frustrating winters forecasting wise.

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Gorgeous day. Temps in the mid 40s. Getting some work done. 

B5523695-7769-414E-BBC4-A7F9145C131B.jpeg

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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It always surprises me how cold upper 40s feels in the afternoon early in the season like this.  Currently 47 and it feels cold out there!

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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51 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

How blocky was 1970-71? I always thought that big January snow event was pretty maritime based, maybe a big block but pretty far west? I’m sure a few of you know. 

us_reanalyse-en-087-0_modera5_197101140300_5436_310.thumb.png.f5c79ce06d270456fc3aca7e5d3c5869.png

Looks like there was some weak but very high latitude blocking over western AK and northward.

This website is a really good tool for looking at weather patterns on a given date. They're Euro reconstructs that go back to 1950. You can even choose different times of day: https://weather.us/reanalysis

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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37 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Baby steps and still time for it to change. It only showed it getting displaced at all last two runs so I’ll take it. 

Good points.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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29 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

How blocky was 1970-71? I always thought that big January snow event was pretty maritime based, maybe a big block but pretty far west? I’m sure a few of you know. 

I would call that winter about one step more amplified than 2007-08.  Of course the late Feb / early March event was historic, but I'm talking about the main part of the winter.  It had way more lowland stuff than 2007-08, but at different times and locations.  Also a number of moderate cold snaps.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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7 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

us_reanalyse-en-087-0_modera5_197101140300_5436_310.thumb.png.f5c79ce06d270456fc3aca7e5d3c5869.png

Looks like there was some weak but very high latitude blocking over western AK and northward.

This website is a really good tool for looking at weather patterns on a given date. They're Euro reconstructs that go back a to 1950. You can even choose different times of day: https://weather.us/reanalysis

Good stuff.  I have always used the NCEP reanalysis, but this might have a bit of a different take on some events.

You shift that pattern shown east about 5 degrees and wow!  Those are some insane low heights.  Like that winter I think the challenge this time is going to be joining the Pacific Ridge and Aleutian block.  The times that happens should be good.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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49 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

You know darn well things have to get blocky eventually.  I'm sure there are plenty of good members on that 12z EPS ensemble.

It doesn't have to get blocky eventually.  It just doesn't.  The weather will do what the weather will do.

Sit back and watch.  No amount of model riding or wish casting is going to change what happens.

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5 minutes ago, The Swamp said:

It doesn't have to get blocky eventually.  It just doesn't.  The weather will do what the weather will do.

Sit back and watch.  No amount of model riding or wish casting is going to change what happens.

We're going to do fine.  I've been doing this long enough to where I don't need to be told what to do.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Meanwhile...looking forward to a good solid cold night coming up.  It's actually been fairly crisp since that cold front came through behind the AR.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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37 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

image.gif

I had no idea there were so many fans of cold weather out there!

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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53 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Yeah... could be 2 or 3 day thing in an otherwise zonal winter.   That is impossible to predict.   For now it feels like the Pacific is amped up for the foreseeable future. 

A +EPO winter wouldn't be a stretch. Phil has been warning everyone for months now. It wouldn't be an awful outcome for the ski resorts and the mountain snowpack.

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6 minutes ago, snow drift said:

A +EPO winter wouldn't be a stretch. Phil has been warning everyone for months now. It wouldn't be an awful outcome for the ski resorts and the mountain snowpack.

I still say he's way too hung up on 2007.  -QBO not nearly as mature or intense as that winter and the observed weather just hasn't matched.  I'm sure we will have some issues with high EPO at times, but as you say those are good times for mountain snows.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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It's over :(

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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3 minutes ago, snow drift said:

Thank you, sir! May I have another?

I agree.  That was a fun period.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

It's over :(

I know you're kidding, but there was a lot of that at this time in 2008.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

I know you're kidding, but there was a lot of that at this time in 2008.

The old November mirage. Works every time.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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