PNW November 2021 Wx Obs/Discussion

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Day 10

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00z GFS - 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals

[MossMan]

2 hours ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

That would be fun too to see it snow so hard and accumulate so much in a short time period.

The evening of the 28th until just after daybreak of the 29th was absolutely epic!! One and only time we were under a blizzard warning. The rate of snowfall was insane. 

[MossMan]

33 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Thanks, Randy @MossMan for inspiring me while posting the 00z GFS!

Best Christmas movie ever! 

[TheNewCulverJosh]

26 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

00z GFS - 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals

She is hot and would be very hard to turn down. I might trade her for a good December snowstorm though, only that.

[Gradient Keeper]

GFS long range for what its worth ($3.29?) is much improved and shuts down the Pacific. Not ideal yet. Get used to seeing these big blocks!

Day 8-16

00z ECMWF in 30 minutes

[Gradient Keeper]

43 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Best Christmas movie ever! 

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SATURDAY NIGHT MODEL RIDING!

EURO time! Here we go! C'MON!!!!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 hour ago, DJ Droppin said:

Temp: 36.1, Dewpoint: 31.6 almost feels like Winter outside!

 

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00z ECMWF Day 1

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

5 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

00z ECMWF Day 1

 

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Day 2

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Temp: 34.5, Dewpoint: 30.6 a nice, cold, crisp Fall night!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

36F with thin fog.

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Day 3

[snow_wizard]

55 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

GFS long range for what its worth ($3.29?) is much improved and shuts down the Pacific. Not ideal yet. Get used to seeing these big blocks!

Day 8-16

00z ECMWF in 30 minutes

Really nice block on this run.  The details will sort themselves out.

[MossMan]

24 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

That 1989 Ford Taurus Wagon jumped that snowbank like a champ! 

[Anti Marine Layer]

1 hour ago, DJ Droppin said:

Day 9'er

Advent is coming

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Day 4

[Anti Marine Layer]

2 hours ago, DJ Droppin said:

 

Grrrrrrrrrrrr. Woof woof woof woof. Bang bang. Crash. Grrrrrr. Woof woof.

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Day 5

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Day 6

[snow_wizard]

Looks like we have just a brief period of mid level clouds to get through for the Central Puget Sound.  Later tonight it will totally clear out and temps should easily drop to freezing in many places.

Currently 36 here.

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00z GEFS Closer to being good.

[jakeinthevalley]

1 hour ago, TheNewCulverJosh said:

She is hot and would be very hard to turn down. I might trade her for a good December snowstorm though, only that.

I thought you already "had" her?

31.4 here in W Salem

[snow_wizard]

It certainly appears the layer of low level cold is pretty thick.  Most places in the Cascades at 2500 to 3500 feet are currently at freezing in spite of warming 850s.

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Day 7

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

00z GEFS

It continues to show the AK vortex getting displaced.  I'm thinking we will have a shot at something good by Dec 5 to Dec 10.

[Gradient Keeper]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

It continues to show the AK vortex getting displaced.  I'm thinking we will have a shot at something good by Dec 5 to Dec 10.

Heights building/southeast US ridge too.

[SouthHillFrosty]

1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said:

Heights building/southeast US ridge too.

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Day 8

[TigerWoodsLibido]

If the EC ensemble still doesn’t have anything interesting then I doubt we see much of anything. Just feels like one of those years with another persistent pattern we get stuck in with the AL and AK vortex never going away.

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Day 9'er

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1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

If the EC ensemble still doesn’t have anything interesting then I doubt we see much of anything. Just feels like one of those years with another persistent pattern we get stuck in with the AL and AK vortex never going away.

? You know 12z EPS also got rid of the AL and shuts down the Pacific right? Just like the GEFS. The only issue is the block is a bit too far west, for now.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Just now, DJ Droppin said:

? You know 12z EPS also got rid of the AL and shuts down the Pacific right? Just like the GEFS. The only issue is the block is a bit too far west, for now.

I’d love to see the EPS stick to it. But I fear it’s just a blip. Can’t even get a good mountain snow pattern going either. Bachelor might not open at all at this rate. Was it 91-92 the last time it didn’t open?

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00z CMCE(Canadian Ensembles) Close to being real good. Nice ridge merger.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

7 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

If the EC ensemble still doesn’t have anything interesting then I doubt we see much of anything. Just feels like one of those years with another persistent pattern we get stuck in with the AL and AK vortex never going away.

Because the weather in early December dictates the weather for the rest of the winter.  No snow by then, it will never happen, right?  I hope you don't actually believe that.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 10 Op run just not quite in range yet for the big pattern change that ensembles are insistent on. That trough looks potent though.

[Gradient Keeper]

7 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

I’d love to see the EPS stick to it. But I fear it’s just a blip. Can’t even get a good mountain snow pattern going either. Bachelor might not open at all at this rate. Was it 91-92 the last time it didn’t open?

I will be really surprised if it's a blip. We shall see!

6z GFS in 2 hours 34 minutes