PNW November 2021 Wx Obs/Discussion

[Meatyorologist]

Just now, Deweydog said:

Kinda fun to think about this pattern which occurred during the much maligned 2007-2008…

 

If long range models were showing something like this at the moment it might crash the server.

Dayum that's a well-endowed block

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

Kinda fun to think about this pattern which occurred during the much maligned 2007-2008…

 

If long range models were showing something like this at the moment it might crash the server.

No doubt there was a certain amount of bad luck that season.  There was blocking in late Jan that kind of failed to deliver as well.  Got cold and clear for a while though.

[snow drift]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

I know you're kidding, but there was a lot of that at this time in 2008.

It is way too early to throw in the towel. We have a long winter ahead of us. We just need a little patience. 

 

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

The old November mirage. Works every time.

Many of the all time greats had that.  As I've mentioned 1908-09 and 1949-50 had the two most intense -PNA cold waves in the 20th century and they were both Ninas that torched in November.

[Dave]

The entire country has basically been a torchfest so far this season except for maybe Kayla. My buddy moved to Kalispell a few weeks ago. He says they've had a total of about an inch of snow so far this year. I warned him about how severe the winters are there and he thinks I've been exaggerating. He's in for a shocker at some point. He doesn't even like snow or cold and his 4x4's transmission exploded on the way up there. His backup car is a 2wd Chevy Cavalier. I predict he'll be back in Oregon when the snow melts in April or at some point before next winter.

[Dave]

Also, he has no garage. Good luck getting your Cavalier to start up when it's -15 out and the battery is dead.

[snow_wizard]

36 minutes ago, Dave said:

The entire country has basically been a torchfest so far this season except for maybe Kayla. My buddy moved to Kalispell a few weeks ago. He says they've had a total of about an inch of snow so far this year. I warned him about how severe the winters are there and he thinks I've been exaggerating. He's in for a shocker at some point. He doesn't even like snow or cold and his 4x4's transmission exploded on the way up there. His backup car is a 2wd Chevy Cavalier. I predict he'll be back in Oregon when the snow melts in April or at some point before next winter.

No doubt the hammer will drop there at some point.  I can't believe he wasn't able to look online and see whether you were exaggerating or not.

[Dave]

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

No doubt the hammer will drop there at some point.  I can't believe he wasn't able to look online and see whether you were exaggerating or not.

When you're not a weather geek like us, it's not as easy to understand a particular location's climate. He looked Wikipedia up and told me he could manage a couple of months where the high was 30 and the low was 15. I tried to explain that those are just long term averages and doesn't account for anomalies. When a cold snap hits or true arctic blast hits, you'll be crying for mama. He'll find out the hard way soon.

[snow_wizard]

25 minutes ago, Dave said:

When you're not a weather geek like us, it's not as easy to understand a particular location's climate. He looked Wikipedia up and told me he could manage a couple of months where the high was 30 and the low was 15. I tried to explain that those are just long term averages and doesn't account for anomalies. When a cold snap hits or true arctic blast hits, you'll be crying for mama. He'll find out the hard way soon.

I would be really surprised if there isn't one really solid blast into Montana this winter at the very least.  I think there is a shot for top tier cold, but obviously low confidence on that.

[snow_wizard]

47 was all she wrote for here today.  Pretty crisp day.

[TT-SEA]

16 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

47 was all she wrote for here today.  Pretty crisp day.

No idea how today was crisp.  Damp chill here today... even rained a little this afternoon.

[Phil]

2 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

It still shows a big shift though.

That 12z EPS is a 2007/08 clone. 

[Phil]

2 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

You know darn well things have to get blocky eventually.  I'm sure there are plenty of good members on that 12z EPS ensemble.

They actually don’t “have” to.

Hopefully it will happen this winter.

[Phil]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

I still say he's way too hung up on 2007.  -QBO not nearly as mature or intense as that winter and the observed weather just hasn't matched.  I'm sure we will have some issues with high EPO at times, but as you say those are good times for mountain snows.

I hope I’m wrong. Nobody wants a 2007/08 repeat except for Andrew.

[Phil]

1 hour ago, Dave said:

The entire country has basically been a torchfest so far this season except for maybe Kayla. My buddy moved to Kalispell a few weeks ago. He says they've had a total of about an inch of snow so far this year. I warned him about how severe the winters are there and he thinks I've been exaggerating. He's in for a shocker at some point. He doesn't even like snow or cold and his 4x4's transmission exploded on the way up there. His backup car is a 2wd Chevy Cavalier. I predict he'll be back in Oregon when the snow melts in April or at some point before next winter.

We torched massively during the first half of autumn, but it’s been much improved since the mid-Oct. Already several nights in the mid-20s, some strong fronts and heavy frosts.

Could be much worse.

[Deweydog]

Purdy sunset!

Definitely has a +EPO look to it.

[Phil]

Imagine if this was reversed.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Just now, Phil said:

Imagine if this was reversed.

The new normal.

[Dave]

41 degrees out, which is a couple of degrees cooler than EUG. Looks to be getting frosty tonight.

[MossMan]

Now that winter is apparently cancelled, how was everyone’s Saturday not having to worry or stress over the models? We went to Starbucks and I put up more Christmas lights! 

[Deweydog]

6 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

The new normal.

Alaska has been warm AF for years now.

[Dave]

-19 at Fairbanks right now with fair skies.

[Deweydog]

Just now, MossMan said:

Now that winter is apparently cancelled, how was everyone’s Saturday not having to worry or stress over the models? We went to Starbucks and I put up more Christmas lights! 

I sold my snow shovel (broken one included) on Craigslist to some guy who lives on Stampede Pass.  We met in the middle…

[TigerWoodsLibido]

3 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Alaska has been warm AF for years now.

So have we.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

6 minutes ago, Dave said:

41 degrees out, which is a couple of degrees cooler than EUG. Looks to be getting frosty tonight.

43F on the east side of town. I doubt we see our 3rd freeze tonight but we'll see. Didn't have one here last night.

[TacomaWaWx]

42 here nice night. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Amazing things ahead this December-February! MBG

00z GFS in 2 hours 28 minutes
00z ECMWF in 4 hours 38 minutes

[Tyler Mode]

This graph of my snowfall last winter demonstrates just how much 4 days can skew things...Those four days were historical, very memorable and pretty disruptive to daily life.  Remove them and last winter would be completely forgotten, at least down here.

[Dave]

16 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

43F on the east side of town. I doubt we see our 3rd freeze tonight but we'll see. Didn't have one here last night.

You could always throw your temperature sensor in the freezer for a few minutes. That always works for me.

[bainbridgekid]

5 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

I am not sure the CPC uses those pattern analogs for long term forecasting.     Its more of a short term comparison thing.

I’ve never understood why those CPC analog maps are based on a predicted setup that is likely to change rather than just comparing the actual current conditions to historical patterns.

If the current atmospheric conditions were 90% similar to a certain date that would mean a lot more than if a 7 day map is equally similar.

[TheNewCulverJosh]

3 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

I’ve never understood why those CPC analog maps are based on a predicted setup that is likely to change rather than just comparing the actual current conditions to historical patterns.

If the current atmospheric conditions were 90% similar to a certain date that would mean a lot more than if a 7 day map is equally similar.

CPC is worthless outside of their 6-10 day.  They even screw that up sometimes.

[MossMan]

18 minutes ago, Tyler Mode said:

This graph of my snowfall last winter demonstrates just how much 4 days can skew things...Those four days were historical, very memorable and pretty disruptive to daily life.  Remove them and last winter would be completely forgotten, at least down here.

We were lucky enough up here to have a nice little snow event right before Christmas and had a little snow around still on Christmas Eve last season. 

[Dave]

It's definitely been torchy in western Oregon.

BTW, for anyone that wants to pull those anomaly maps, here is a great website to snag them from.

https://wrcc.dri.edu/anom/

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

1 hour ago, Phil said:

I hope I’m wrong. Nobody wants a 2007/08 repeat except for Andrew.

I wouldn' mind it.  Leavenworth had 66 inches in December and 39 in January.  128 total for the winter.  But I hope everyone gets a lot of snow this winter.

BTW the snowiest month I could find was December 1996.  94 inches fell.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Down to 37.

[MossMan]

12 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

I wouldn' mind it.  Leavenworth had 66 inches in December and 39 in January.  128 total for the winter.  But I hope everyone gets a lot of snow this winter.

BTW the snowiest month I could find was December 1996.  94 inches fell.

I had 27” that lasted about 3 days haha! 
(In December 1996) 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

3 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I had 27” that lasted about 3 days haha! 

That would be fun too to see it snow so hard and accumulate so much in a short time period.

[TacomaWaWx]

4 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I had 27” that lasted about 3 days haha! 

It was sad how fast the snow in February 2021 was gone. Had 15.5” of snow on Valentine’s Day and just patches of snow 2 days later. 

[Omegaraptor]

21 minutes ago, Dave said:

It's definitely been torchy in western Oregon.

BTW, for anyone that wants to pull those anomaly maps, here is a great website to snag them from.

https://wrcc.dri.edu/anom/

Getting in my car and driving over Willamette Pass. Thanks.

[MossMan]

11 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

It was sad how fast the snow in February 2021 was gone. Had 15.5” of snow on Valentine’s Day and just patches of snow 2 days later. 

Yeah it was such an epic weekend but it would have been more special if we would have gone like a week or so after with below freezing highs.