PNW November 2021 Wx Obs/Discussion

[TigerWoodsLibido]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Have you noticed the enormous positive height anomaly over Canada over the past month?  It wasn't there in years like 2007 and 1975 during the same period.  This is very different.

I'm will to bet anyone on here $50.00 this will be more curvy than 2007-08.

Jim here putting a dollar amount and curvy in the same sentence.

[Deweydog]

[Phil]

8 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Have you noticed the enormous positive height anomaly over Canada over the past month?  It wasn't there in years like 2007 and 1975 during the same period.  This is very different.

I'm will to bet anyone on here $50.00 this will be more curvy than 2007-08.

Uh, it’s pretty close. I’ve been combing through these analogs to the point where it’s bordering on OCD. 

[RentonHill]

2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

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00z ECMWF Day 1

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00z GEM Got D**n close!

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Back to the EURO. Day 2

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Day 3

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Day 4

[Deweydog]

18 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Back to the EURO. Day 2

If this were day ten we’d be extrapolating like mofos…

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Day 5

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Day 6

[Deweydog]

For those scoring at home, at this moment in 2007 we were heading into a fairly ridgy period which culminated in the late month retrogression/close call/warning shot/hurricane.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 hour ago, Deweydog said:

How’s next summer look?

By the new standards, mild. Seattle will struggle to eke out a 105 and Portland might not even reach 110.

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Day 8

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Day 9'er

[TT-SEA]

6 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Day 8

That is a very wet weekend...

 

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Day 10

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10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals

[Anti Marine Layer]

8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

That is a very wet weekend...

 

Another AR?

[TT-SEA]

If the ECMWF verifies over the next 10 days... SEA would end up with over 10 inches of rain for the month.     Might be good enough for 3rd place on the wettest Novembers list behind 1998 and 2006.

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

Another AR?

There are two AR events on this run... one on Thanksgiving day and another one next weekend with a one day break on Friday in between.

That ridgy CA / troughy GOA pattern is evil at this time of year... points the firehose right at western WA and BC.

[TT-SEA]

Thanksgiving weekend rain totals (Wednesday evening through Sunday evening):

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Thanksgiving weekend rain totals (Wednesday evening through Sunday evening):

Pretty wet down here even...

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Pretty wet down here even...

Yeah... the Thanksgiving AR gets a good push to the south.  At least that is what us shown now.   Don't trust it though since the last one slowly shifted north as it got closer in time. 

[Deweydog]

If this winter is just recurring AR’s from start to finish, can we carry that balance into next winter? Asking for a friend.

[Gradient Keeper]

GEFS, CMCE both shut down the Pacific after Day 10. EPS probably follows suit hopefully with timing nudged ahead a bit. Favorable blocking/cold is coming, but perhaps not for at least 2 weeks.

6z GFS in 2 hours

[MossMan]

I just had a quick shower! 

[Phil]

00z EPS out to hr312.

Zonal flow lovers rejoice.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

Zonal flow lovers rejoice.

 

2007/2008 gave Leavenworth 61 inches of snow.  In December.  

So some of us don't mind zonal.

But the EPS did show improvement.

 

[Deweydog]

15 minutes ago, Phil said:

00z EPS out to hr312.

Zonal flow lovers rejoice.

[Phil]

20 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

2007/2008 gave Leavenworth 61 inches of snow.  In December.  

So some of us don't mind zonal.

What about 1999/00 and 1974/75?

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

11 minutes ago, Phil said:

What about 1999/00 and 1974/75?

1999/00 was 93 inches overall, most of it in January and February as December only had about 13 inches.  93 inches is slightly above normal.  There is no data for 1974/75.  But Lake Wenatchee, 15 miles from away where they average more than we do, had 248 inches, including 82 in January.  So good guess Leavenworth had an above average year.

BTW not an analog year I am guessing, but we had 94 inches of snow in Leavenworth in December 1996.  Wish I had lived here then.

[Gradient Keeper]

49 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

2007/2008 gave Leavenworth 61 inches of snow.  In December.  

So some of us don't mind zonal.

But the EPS did show improvement.

 

Same progression as the GEFS, CMCE. To see that good of agreement that's a strong signal. Things looks good going in the right direction shutting down the Pacific and bitter cold to the north.

[Kolk1604]

13 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Same progression as the GEFS, CMCE. To see that good of agreement that's a strong signal. Things looks good going in the right direction shutting down the Pacific and bitter cold to the north.

When it comes to sports, my mom is a believer in if she doesn't watch, they play better

If we ignore the models for a couple of days, will they deliver the goods? 

Nice to see things moving in the right direction. Would really love to see the 850s drop. Maybe soon? 

[Gradient Keeper]

Just now, Kolk1604 said:

When it comes to sports, my mom is a believer in if she doesn't watch, they play better

If we ignore the models for a couple of days, will they deliver the goods? 

Nice to see things moving in the right direction. Would really love to see the 850s drop. Maybe soon? 

Hmmm.... Maybe? I'll see y'all in 5 days then.

12z GFS(Thursday) in 126 hours 37 minutes
12z ECMWF(Thursday) in 128 hours 47 minutes

[Cloud]

Woke up to the sound of raindrops. Thought it wasn’t supposed to rain yet but there is a PSCZ developing right over me. 

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1:18 AM Radar Update

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Friday SSTs
Nino 3.4: -0.812
Nino 3: -1.150
Nino 4: -0.590
Nino 1+2: -1.654

Latest SSTs
Nino 3.4: -0.817
Nino 3: -1.123
Nino 4: -0.587
Nino 1+2: -1.634