Geos Posted December 2, 2015 Report Share Posted December 2, 2015 I wish forecasts/forecasters would automatically throw March into the winter outlooks, because usually March is more like winter than Spring. Especially this far north! 1 Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 2, 2015 Report Share Posted December 2, 2015 @ Geos No kiddin, March is a very favorable Big Dog climo month no less. At least for our region (S. Lakes). Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted December 2, 2015 Report Share Posted December 2, 2015 Would like to see a Morch 2012 redux again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 2, 2015 Report Share Posted December 2, 2015 @ Maxim 2012 March and April kinda swapped places. I loved being able to dine outside on St. Patty's Day, but man the fruit crops got hit hard over here in April (worst in 70 yrs iirc). So, I'll still keep 1st half of March for winter, 2nd half for spring, and April for flowers - LOL What I absolutely loathe, is heavy winter after Tax Day like that snowstorm on the 27th back in '05. Never want to see that again. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 3, 2015 Report Share Posted December 3, 2015 @ Maxim 2012 March and April kinda swapped places. I loved being able to dine outside on St. Patty's Day, but man the fruit crops got hit hard over here in April (worst in 70 yrs iirc). So, I'll still keep 1st half of March for winter, 2nd half for spring, and April for flowers - LOL What I absolutely loathe, is heavy winter after Tax Day like that snowstorm on the 27th back in '05. Never want to see that again. You had a bit snowstorm in late April!? I don't think I remember that one. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 3, 2015 Author Report Share Posted December 3, 2015 Would like to see a Morch 2012 redux again.Not happening this year, prob won't happen in many years. That was so rare to see and the LRC pattern that was set up that year was very favorable to see the entire month torch the way it did. To much evidence this El Nino will have a lot of blocking to work, esp mid/late Winter into early Spring. That Winter season was such a dude I remember beginning nature to deliver Spring-time weather ASAP! She obviously delivered... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted December 3, 2015 Report Share Posted December 3, 2015 This is sobering. 0% icing on Hudson Bay this time last year. This year same time, 50%. 4 Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. “If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.” Gen. Sheridan 1866 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 3, 2015 Report Share Posted December 3, 2015 You had a bit snowstorm in late April!? I don't think I remember that one. My place was more or less on the western end of the WSWarning level snows. I wasn't measuring back then, but prolly got 6". I really tried to ignore it and couldn't wait til it stopped tbh. With all the flowering trees in bloom it's the best season of the year in Marshall and that storm ruined that in '05! North and east of me really got rocked. I think there was an 18" lolly somewhere in the Thumb region of MI, even though CIPS not reflecting that. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted December 3, 2015 Report Share Posted December 3, 2015 So, in light of Canada's Hudson Being frozen so early, how does that bode for the southern plains having a colder winter. It certainly seems to be hinting at a very cold winter for the northern plains. I've read many climatologists believe we are seeing the very early stages of a mini ice age. Do you agree or disagree ? Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. “If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.” Gen. Sheridan 1866 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 3, 2015 Report Share Posted December 3, 2015 So, in light of Canada's Hudson Being frozen so early, how does that bode for the southern plains having a colder winter. It certainly seems to be hinting at a very cold winter for the northern plains.I've read many climatologists believe we are seeing the very early stages of a mini ice age.Do you agree or disagree ? Wow, that's really something about the ice cover one year ago vs. now. I don't remember ever checking up on that. A frozen over Hudson Bay early would develop a cold air dome over it. Cold air passes over the smooth surface of the bay more easily. Air masses heading southward won't be moderated by open above freezing/near freezing waters if it is frozen over. Probably will affect the Great Lakes, Canadian Maritimes, and the Northeast more so. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted December 3, 2015 Report Share Posted December 3, 2015 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted December 3, 2015 Report Share Posted December 3, 2015 My place was more or less on the western end of the WSWarning level snows. I wasn't measuring back then, but prolly got 6". I really tried to ignore it and couldn't wait til it stopped tbh. With all the flowering trees in bloom it's the best season of the year in Marshall and that storm ruined that in '05! North and east of me really got rocked. I think there was an 18" lolly somewhere in the Thumb region of MI, even though CIPS not reflecting that. 20050426_072_total.pngWow, That did not turn out right! Any way what I had posted was that on April 23/24 2005 that Flint had 8" of snow and that way back in 1923 Flint had 12" of snow on May 9th and that May snow fell during the day time. dont know what I did the first time 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted December 3, 2015 Report Share Posted December 3, 2015 So, in light of Canada's Hudson Being frozen so early, how does that bode for the southern plains having a colder winter. It certainly seems to be hinting at a very cold winter for the northern plains. I've read many climatologists believe we are seeing the very early stages of a mini ice age. Do you agree or disagree ?literally laughed out loud at that. Which climatologists are saying that? I'd love to know. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 3, 2015 Author Report Share Posted December 3, 2015 So, in light of Canada's Hudson Being frozen so early, how does that bode for the southern plains having a colder winter. It certainly seems to be hinting at a very cold winter for the northern plains.I've read many climatologists believe we are seeing the very early stages of a mini ice age.Do you agree or disagree ?Oh boy, that topic of discussion around here can go both ways! I've been researching this idea myself and I'm seeing more and more scientists backing off the idea of Global Warming. Like you said, some even suggest we are going to begin the cool down as soon as this El Nino starts flipping towards the strong La Nina (-PDO) which will eventually cool the earth quite a bit. Following the next 3-5 years, our Solar cycle minimum should be having a profound effect on the Earth's temperature. Here is an article relating to the cyclical nature of our so-called AGW Global Warming...it's been natural and the Earth is not going heading towards catastrophe: http://www.prisonplanet.com/former-un-lead-author-global-warming-caused-by-natural-variations-in-climate.html Here is a nice graphic showing RSS Satellite data indicating NO Global Warming over the last 18 years.... http://blog.heartland.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/Monckton-Figure-3.jpg Regarding the Hudson Bay, it's amazing what a difference a year makes, ay??? Like Geo's said, I believe it will impact more of southern Canada/NE/Great Lakes. However, I will say this, blocking is definitely showing signs of getting established by mid December and today's JMA Weeklies run is showing an active storm track for the southern 1/2 of the nation and below normal temps. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FV-Mike Posted December 3, 2015 Report Share Posted December 3, 2015 literally laughed out loud at that. Which climatologists are saying that? I'd love to know.It was a popular topic back in July. Quick Google search shows that it came from a professor in England. not sure what other climatologists jumped on Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 3, 2015 Author Report Share Posted December 3, 2015 Some graphics from Weather2020 illustrating the dominant features of this year's LRC....it looks like to me, that areas near the Lakes have a better chance of escaping some of the wild warm spells and portions of the Plains/Southwest may see the most warming when those features of the LRC become present. http://weather2020.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/Slide09.jpg http://weather2020.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/Slide10-640x480.jpg Now, imagine if Blocking is more prevalent later this month and throughout the Winter. These main troughs will become extremely energized and be able to tap into more arctic air providing more widespread snow storms. I have a good sense that the Plains/Lakes will be the epicenter of the main storm track and the Snow Geese in the East may not be so happy. http://weather2020.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/Slide11-640x480.jpg http://weather2020.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/Slide12-640x480.jpg From the graphics above, there may be several chances of good WAA snow systems in between both phases. Folks in the Great Lakes and parts of the Midwest stand a better chance overall at seeing a consistent snow cover from what these graphics indicate. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted December 3, 2015 Report Share Posted December 3, 2015 if we're heading towards a mini ice age, how come every month the planet breaks all time temperature records? Any time posters here show forecast departures for the next several months, you'll see basically 90% of the planet has above normal temperatures forecast. It's been that way for the last couple of years that I have been on this site and it always shows this even when we are all focused on the below normal winters that parts of the US have had Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted December 3, 2015 Report Share Posted December 3, 2015 if we're heading towards a mini ice age, how come every month the planet breaks all time temperature records? Any time posters here show forecast departures for the next several months, you'll see basically 90% of the planet has above normal temperatures forecast. It's been that way for the last couple of years that I have been on this site and it always shows this even when we are all focused on the below normal winters that parts of the US have hadExactly. Last year was the hottest year on record with the Eastern half of the CONUS being the only area with colder departures. This year may end up being even warmer than last year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 3, 2015 Author Report Share Posted December 3, 2015 There are no images Tom.Fixed Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 3, 2015 Author Report Share Posted December 3, 2015 Isn't it ironic that a lot of the analogs point towards a drier Great Lakes/OV but Gary Lezak's forecast is completely opposite? Perfect example that, yes, sometimes its good to use analogs to get a general idea on a winter forecast but if you could add the technology of the LRC and/or Jim Flower's 30 day cycle, you can get a much more accurate forecast. We'll see in the end who ends up being more accurate. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted December 3, 2015 Report Share Posted December 3, 2015 I agree with pattern 1 a lot but I feel he has the trough hanging back to the west too far. I think the mean trough position and dominant storm track continue to ease east with each cycle. I'm not really sure about pattern 2 but I do realize that his forecast is based off a positive AO for the winter so that is most likely where the majority of my disagreements lie. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 3, 2015 Author Report Share Posted December 3, 2015 I agree with pattern 1 a lot but I feel he has the trough hanging back to the west too far. I think the mean trough position and dominant storm track continue to ease east with each cycle. I'm not really sure about pattern 2 but I do realize that his forecast is based off a positive AO for the winter so that is most likely where the majority of my disagreements lie.I agree with you about his Phase 2 being rather warm. He's prob going off of the trend in the AO during the Autumn, but, as you know, you can't judge a teleconnection trend in the Fall and expect it to cycle in the Winter. We saw in the Winter of 2012-2013 a major flip in the AO/NAO around very late Jan/early Feb that lasted well into April. Normally, in El Nino Winters, blocking is more prevalent mid/late Winter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 4, 2015 Report Share Posted December 4, 2015 I agree with pattern 1 a lot but I feel he has the trough hanging back to the west too far. I think the mean trough position and dominant storm track continue to ease east with each cycle. I'm not really sure about pattern 2 but I do realize that his forecast is based off a positive AO for the winter so that is most likely where the majority of my disagreements lie. I would agree. I'm not sure it continues east every cycle, but initially he shows it where it's been, instead of where it will progress to. Most good S. Lakes winters of memory featured a pattern that delivered snow about 2/3rds of the time, with 1/3 focusing elsewhere. If we are to be included in this just like we have been so far (talking Chicago and SMI), then that primary track will be up through the eastern lakes, i.e. bringing the better systems west of the Appalachians. Sorry EC peeps. I'm fine with sharing late winter with though. If this really wants to go big like '77-78, then we could eventually see a couple storms hit NE as that Jan/Feb featured "share the wealth" historic blizzards galore! Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 4, 2015 Author Report Share Posted December 4, 2015 I would agree. I'm not sure it continues east every cycle, but initially he shows it where it's been, instead of where it will progress to. Most good S. Lakes winters of memory featured a pattern that delivered snow about 2/3rds of the time, with 1/3 focusing elsewhere. If we are to be included in this.Indeed, we are situated in a fairly good region that should do well in the snow department. I think we will be tracking many major storms along with pacific waves/ripples in the jet when the "weaker" part of the cycle hits. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted December 4, 2015 Report Share Posted December 4, 2015 I agree with pattern 1 a lot but I feel he has the trough hanging back to the west too far. I think the mean trough position and dominant storm track continue to ease east with each cycle. I'm not really sure about pattern 2 but I do realize that his forecast is based off a positive AO for the winter so that is most likely where the majority of my disagreements lie.if anything the trough placement is too far east. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 4, 2015 Author Report Share Posted December 4, 2015 New SST analog Temp forecast for Jan-Mar... http://www.weatherbell.com/images/imguploader/images/cat2m_anom_1(14).gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted December 4, 2015 Report Share Posted December 4, 2015 Some graphics from Weather2020 illustrating the dominant features of this year's LRC....it looks like to me, that areas near the Lakes have a better chance of escaping some of the wild warm spells and portions of the Plains/Southwest may see the most warming when those features of the LRC become present. http://weather2020.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/Slide09.jpg http://weather2020.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/Slide10-640x480.jpg Now, imagine if Blocking is more prevalent later this month and throughout the Winter. These main troughs will become extremely energized and be able to tap into more arctic air providing more widespread snow storms. I have a good sense that the Plains/Lakes will be the epicenter of the main storm track and the Snow Geese in the East may not be so happy. http://weather2020.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/Slide11-640x480.jpg http://weather2020.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/Slide12-640x480.jpg From the graphics above, there may be several chances of good WAA snow systems in between both phases. Folks in the Great Lakes and parts of the Midwest stand a better chance overall at seeing a consistent snow cover from what these graphics indicate. I'm kinda disappointed in his forecast. He really doesn't show/mention where the hot spot will be like last year. He nailed that by saying the east coast, mostly the Boston area, will be the hot spot. Of course we all know what happened there, 100+" of snow...... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 4, 2015 Report Share Posted December 4, 2015 New SST analog Temp forecast for Jan-Mar... http://www.weatherbell.com/images/imguploader/images/cat2m_anom_1(14).gif Hilarious Tom. Shows (if I'm seeing correctly) a -1 to -2 departure for mby. Granted, this leaves out our warmest month expected (Dec), but if cold does make a move late month, departures won't be too out of hand by Jan 1st. We'll see, my call for SWMI may not be as far out in left field as some would argue. My call from November 3rd: "Since I have not a reputation to uphold with anyone anywhere as a forecaster or such. I'm going to run with the squirrels, trend, & my gut and say that the other shoe will drop and all that cold that's been building comes down and sets up shop similar to the last (2) years where Josh showed only (1) winter month out of (10) above normal. This is our 3rd year to balance those 3 hot years and I will go out on the limb with those same furry critters and say COLD wins over Strong Nino climo. I also feel strongly that said Nino along with a warm GOMEX and all that heat hugging the west coast of NAMER leads to an abundance of moisture available for copious snowfall. DJFM: Temps @ -1.5 to -2.0, snowfall @ 150-200% from mby to Lake MI, 100-125% for balance of SMI on east of Marshall." 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted December 4, 2015 Report Share Posted December 4, 2015 literally laughed out loud at that. Which climatologists are saying that? I'd love to know. Hi Maxim,Sorry to take so long to get back to you.I located an older article (2002) by a climatologist at Woods Hole Physical Oceanography Dept. in Mass. The dept. work is ongoing. As climate changes slowly, I am not worried about the age of this article. It is clearly written and fairly measured in its perspective. I like it because there are several climatologists that weigh in and they don't shout "Ice age", or "Global warming" in the main stream media sense. It's such a complex subject, and in reading it again, I find I appreciate the task of the scientists trying to unravel the knot and discover the path ahead. I hope you'll give it a read. It isn't short, but I came out of it understanding there will be a cooling period, but it will also warm. Counter intuitive, I know. I'm not a scientist, not in the classic sense. I did own and operate a chemical plant, but that's a long way from weather and climate. I do think in a problem solving nuts and bolts way which was what made my plant successful, even to today after I sold it. I don't want to go off on a tangent about mile high ice. Rather, I find their perspective that we will see a cooling period significant. Timing? I don't think anyone can predict that with confidance. Enjoy. http://discovermagazine.com/2002/sep/cover Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. “If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.” Gen. Sheridan 1866 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted December 7, 2015 Report Share Posted December 7, 2015 This post is a carry over from the December discussion Its early in the winter season and things could change but IMO we could be looking at a winter more like the one that happened in 1931/32 then 1982/83 or 1997/98. In 1931 September was +6.2 (September 2015 was +4.4) October 1931 was +4.8° (October 2015 +1.1°) November 1931 was +7.5° (November 2015 was +5.4°) December 1931 was +6.6° (first 5 days of December 2015 are +5.7°) January 1932 was +9.8° February 1932 was +5.0° and then winter came in March of 1932 when it was -7.2° and 25.3” of snow fell. Note the above was for Grand Rapids, Michigan at the old airport that was about 10 miles west of the new airport. But I took a quick look at Des Moines, Iowa for the winter of 1931/32 and the pattern there was the same as Grand Rapids but with less snow in March. So at this time until the pattern really changes (if it does) this winter could be like the winter of 1931/32 (remember no two winters are exactly alike. But at this point in time that is the way I see this winter playing out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 11, 2015 Author Report Share Posted December 11, 2015 Newly issued Jan-Mar temp forecast by the NASA model...heading towards a blend of the analogs... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/images/NASA_ensemble_tmp2m_us_season1.png http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/images/NASA_ensemble_tmp2m_us_season2.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 11, 2015 Author Report Share Posted December 11, 2015 WB Pioneer model newly updated Jan-Feb 500mb pattern... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 11, 2015 Report Share Posted December 11, 2015 Noticed the changes in the polar vortex on the 12z GFS run. Gets shoved off and towards Europe at 10mb near Christmas. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted December 11, 2015 Report Share Posted December 11, 2015 Man, it's like 2011/2012 all over again... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 11, 2015 Report Share Posted December 11, 2015 Man, it's like 2011/2012 all over again... Well in terms of waiting for the polar vortex to weaken, yes. Much stormier than that winter though ~ so far. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 12, 2015 Author Report Share Posted December 12, 2015 Man, it's like 2011/2012 all over again...Not even close...that year the GOA trough was very strong and persistent. This year it is more centered near the Aleutians. Back in 2011-12 the whole U.S. was under a massive ridging non stop. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 12, 2015 Report Share Posted December 12, 2015 I was just thinking about how snowy coastal southeast Alaska was in December of 2011. - A lot more than it is now and colder. Cordova, AK was blasted that winter. Been a lot of cold rain this month so far there. Very strong GOA low that winter. 1 Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 13, 2015 Report Share Posted December 13, 2015 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1.png Most cooling I have seen in the blob in a long while... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 14, 2015 Report Share Posted December 14, 2015 A CFS outlook recap so far. CFS v.2 outlooks keep on getting the dry signal wrong. Last day of November it trended away from it suddenly in the Ohio Valley. Been more accurate with the temperatures. So far. Pretty good match. The Northeast might running a bit under what the model predicted. Precipitation is running behind normal in the Ohio Valley, but will likely change as the month goes on - especially as the new numbers come in from this departing system. Trend for January in the last 3 days has been a bit cooler. More warmth showing up in Alaska. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted December 14, 2015 Report Share Posted December 14, 2015 Yeah, the CFS is pretty awful when it comes to precip, never pay attention to what it shows. Seems to have a dry bias. I see no reason why the wet pattern won't continue. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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