SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 24, 2022 Report Share Posted January 24, 2022 Absolutely pivotal 18z and 00z runs forthcoming. 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted January 24, 2022 Report Share Posted January 24, 2022 18z looks slightly be better so far, but I'm probably jinxing it. The trough around Alaska is more compact. But also, the middle of the ridge looks weaker, if that falls apart it's over. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 24, 2022 Report Share Posted January 24, 2022 .01” of falling fog so far on the day. 35/37 on the day, currently 36. 6.86” on the month. Oh and it’s coming. 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 24, 2022 Report Share Posted January 24, 2022 7 minutes ago, Chris said: Clown range but SSW brewing. Definitely been some hints lately of some instability. Too little too late… 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 24, 2022 Report Share Posted January 24, 2022 8 minutes ago, Chris said: Clown range but SSW brewing. I’ll start getting interested if more EPS members get on board. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 24, 2022 Report Share Posted January 24, 2022 Fog has lifted up into my area this afternoon... hoping the east wind can blow it out tonight. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 24, 2022 Report Share Posted January 24, 2022 1 minute ago, Deweydog said: Definitely been some hints lately of some instability. Too little too late… A January 1950 of spring equinoxes. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted January 24, 2022 Report Share Posted January 24, 2022 Wow 18z GFS OP so far is holding on. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted January 24, 2022 Report Share Posted January 24, 2022 1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: UKMET hasn't been mentioned in hott minute. Only goes to 144 hours. Been a boring and totally worthless range the last few weeks! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 24, 2022 Report Share Posted January 24, 2022 In the meantime, this is what the GFS is projecting on D7. This will probably be tough to overcome when rubber meets the road. A lot has to go right. 2 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted January 24, 2022 Report Share Posted January 24, 2022 50 minutes ago, Phil said: New EPS weeklies are even more anemic with the Niña cell. Mediocre in presentation even with MJO transit thru IPWP domain. By late Feb/early March it’s more like a phase 8/1 state with very little in the way of a low pass signal. Warm and dry spring coming. I'm feeling a reasonable summer, though. Reasonable as in closer to 2000s averages rather than 2014/2015/2017/2018/2021 conditions. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 24, 2022 Report Share Posted January 24, 2022 January 2023. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted January 24, 2022 Report Share Posted January 24, 2022 2 minutes ago, Phil said: In the meantime, this is what the GFS is projecting on D7. No narration necessary. Please narrate. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 24, 2022 Report Share Posted January 24, 2022 FWIW the Euro/EPS and GFS aren’t all that different thru D5. But the GFS goes off on its own thereafter in the E-Asia/NPAC sector, which is kinda typical. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 24, 2022 Report Share Posted January 24, 2022 6 minutes ago, BLI snowman said: Warm and dry spring coming. I'm feeling a reasonable summer, though. Reasonable as in closer to 2000s averages rather than 2014/2015/2017/2018/2021 conditions. I will try to fill in for Jesse with weekly meltdowns. 1 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted January 24, 2022 Report Share Posted January 24, 2022 5 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said: Please narrate. Strong PV. Good for that sea ice to keep building, though! We'll reap the rewards 2023-25 with a slightly cooler globe. 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 24, 2022 Report Share Posted January 24, 2022 Hour 186 you can already see the cave starting... 1 2 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted January 24, 2022 Report Share Posted January 24, 2022 1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Hour 186 you can already see the cave starting... Still looks very different than Euro at that hour. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 24, 2022 Report Share Posted January 24, 2022 12z EPS/GEPS/GEFS, respectively. To me the GEFS looks lost over E-Siberia/NPAC. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted January 24, 2022 Report Share Posted January 24, 2022 this is one cold inversion. 29 at 2:30pm with freezing fog 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted January 24, 2022 Report Share Posted January 24, 2022 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 24, 2022 Report Share Posted January 24, 2022 18z GFS EURO 12z GFS Oh geez... 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted January 24, 2022 Report Share Posted January 24, 2022 1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: 18z GFS EURO 12z GFS Oh geez... rip Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 24, 2022 Report Share Posted January 24, 2022 THIS IS EXACTLY WHAT HAP END IN 2019. 2 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Christensen87 Posted January 24, 2022 Report Share Posted January 24, 2022 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted January 24, 2022 Report Share Posted January 24, 2022 Gunna head to the our condo on Hilton Head Island, SC I think soon. catch you guys in December 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 24, 2022 Report Share Posted January 24, 2022 37 minutes ago, Deweydog said: Definitely been some hints lately of some instability. Too little too late… 2 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fircrest Posted January 24, 2022 Report Share Posted January 24, 2022 2 hours ago, Deweydog said: Yeah…. We only do dogs here thanks. 4 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 24, 2022 Report Share Posted January 24, 2022 2 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said: Gunna head to the our condo on Hilton Head Island, SC I think soon. catch you guys in December So basically you are going somewhere colder? 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted January 24, 2022 Report Share Posted January 24, 2022 18z GFS is a good mountain snowfall pattern. 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted January 24, 2022 Report Share Posted January 24, 2022 1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: So basically you are going somewhere colder? pretty much. lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 24, 2022 Report Share Posted January 24, 2022 Barf Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 24, 2022 Report Share Posted January 24, 2022 10 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: So basically you are going somewhere colder? 2 2 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 24, 2022 Report Share Posted January 24, 2022 We have ensemble improvement for the 31st... 2 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 24, 2022 Report Share Posted January 24, 2022 Just now, Phil said: We call that cherry picking... 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 24, 2022 Report Share Posted January 24, 2022 Well... Not a step back on the GEFS yet... 2 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 24, 2022 Report Share Posted January 24, 2022 3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Well... Not a step back on the GEFS yet... It actually is a bit. -EPO signal substantially weaker versus 12z. Just enough cold members to keep it interesting. 2 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 24, 2022 Report Share Posted January 24, 2022 3 minutes ago, MossMan said: 15 minutes ago, Phil said: That seems totally backwards!!!! 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 24, 2022 Report Share Posted January 24, 2022 28 minutes ago, Fircrest said: Typical inconsiderate, assh*le cat… 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 24, 2022 Report Share Posted January 24, 2022 Feb 2022 might be just a tad different than Feb 2021… 1 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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