PNW January 2022, Contact Info for Phil

[gusky]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Looks like the SEA radar just came back up!  

Oh my god you're right!!! Thank god.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Some minor ensemble improvement on the 18z. 

[gusky]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Temp down to 36.1 as the rain continues to fall. 38/32 today with 1.09" of rain so far. 

[gusky]

 

[T-Town]

11 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Looks like the SEA radar just came back up!  

Still showing rain and not snow at my house so it’s still broken. Maybe they can try turning it off and back on…

[RayRay]

8 miles round trip up gold/green mountain kitsap county. went from 2-3 inches to up to my waist deep in snow. Absolutely amazing amounts. I wasn't able to get to the top since the snow was so deep. The road up there was up to past my elbow and off the road was up to my waist. 2-3 feet of snow at about 1200-1300 ft up. Absolutely crazy amounts of snow. My feet hurt it was so cold.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

2 minutes ago, RayRay said:

8 miles round trip up gold/green mountain kitsap county. went from 2-3 inches to up to my waist deep in snow. Absolutely amazing amounts. I wasn't able to get to the top since the snow was so deep. The road up there was up to past my elbow and off the road was up to my waist. 2-3 feet of snow at about 1200-1300 ft up. Absolutely crazy amounts of snow. My feet hurt it was so cold.

No pics???

[gusky]

6 minutes ago, T-Town said:

Still showing rain and not snow at my house so it’s still broken. Maybe they can try turning it off and back on…

I was told that precip depic is not real time, but powered by HRRR and other stuff. So don't count on that to tell you waht the precip type is

[Front Ranger]

1 hour ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

33 degrees and snowing at home according to the girls. 

What's your seasonal snowfall at so far? Bet you've got my 8" beat!

[T-Town]

11 minutes ago, gusky said:

I was told that precip depic is not real time, but powered by HRRR and other stuff. So don't count on that to tell you waht the precip type is

I was trying to make a joke but it didn’t seem to work out too well. 

[gusky]

Just now, T-Town said:

I was trying to make a joke but it didn’t seem to work out too well. 

Welcome to the party. Sarcasm is difficult online

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like Crater Lake headquarters had just over 150" of snow in December. Well behind the 191" they had during the record setting December 2015, but still about 60" above the long term average. They did this with precip that was pretty much exactly normal. Warmest day was the 2nd with a high of 57, coldest day was 12/27 with a 15/9 spread. Temps were about normal with a -0.4F departure. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

15 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

What's your seasonal snowfall at so far? Bet you've got my 8" beat!

About 25

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

16 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

What's your seasonal snowfall at so far? Bet you've got my 8" beat!

25, best year was 54 in 2008/2009. 45 in 07/08 and 44 in 2019. 

[Loniu7]

School is already on a 2 hr delay for tomorrow.  They are going to be running out of snow days when February comes.

But I think it isnt going to snow

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

1 hour ago, joelgombiner said:

I've been thinking about the GFS and snow forecasts in Puget Sound. 

The GFS sees a very smoothed-out version of our topography. The base resolution is 18 miles, meaning that each square 18 miles x 18 miles is represented with one elevation value. This results in some huge distortions for a state like Washington with very rough mountains. 

Look at how the GFS sees the Cascades in Washington. There's a strip of high topography (represented by reds) cross-cut by two valleys: the Columbia Gorge (along the Oregon-Washington border), and a valley that I've circled in red. This area represents the Snoqualmie River valley, and the Yakima River Valleys where they cross the Cascades. 

Compare the GFS topography to the real topography. I've roughly circled the same area on a high-resolution map of topography. In reality, there is no smooth and wide valley across the Cascades. You know this if you've driven I-90. While there are smooth and wide sections, other areas, such as the approach to Snoqualmie Pass are in narrow, winding valleys. This is important for how low-level air flows across the landscape. 

I think we saw the problem with this representation of topography last Sunday. An Arctic high had built into the Columbia Basin, with bitterly cold air and high pressures around 1024 mb MSLP to the east of the Cascades. At the same time, Pacific air with lower pressures around 1010 mb MSLP had moved in west of the Cascades. I suspect the GFS modeled too much of the Arctic air pouring across the Cascades, because its version of the topography has an unrealistically wide valley along the I-90 corridor. In reality, air had a harder time moving through the narrow, winding valleys that characterize the true topography. 

One way to keep track of this problem is to look at Yakima-Seattle pressure gradients and temperature gradients. As those gradients get higher, this topography problem should result in increasing distortions in GFS predictions for areas around King County. 

Thoughts? 

 

 

 

 

 

 

That's exactly what is said in this column by a guy with a PhD.  So looks like you nailed it, well done!

https://theconvergencezone.com/2022/01/03/why-did-most-weather-models-incorrectly-predict-snow-in-seattle-on-sunday-night/

[RayRay]

38 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

No pics???

My phone broke. its off to board repair... sorry. I feel bad for not being able to take pictures.

[gusky]

That's no fun.

[TT-SEA]

10 minutes ago, 1000'NorthBend said:

Driveway is cleared, snow shovel for scale. Snowing and 32.5°F.

 

You need to invest in a snowblower up here.    Best $300 that I have ever spent... no joke.    Got it at Sears a few years back when there was a store in Redmond.  

[MossMan]

Moderate Rain/snow mix at home. 33.8 degrees. If tonight can’t produce pure snow I’m not sure how tomorrow can unless we can get more cold air pulled in from the north or east. 

[TT-SEA]

13 minutes ago, 1000'NorthBend said:

Driveway is cleared, snow shovel for scale. Snowing and 32.5°F.

 

How much snow do we have on the ground now?    Sure seems like it has compacted down quite a bit.    I was expecting more snow this evening.   The dewpoint must be too high... its fairly marginal and wet and does not accumulate real well.  

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, 1000'NorthBend said:

I did this year, it worked fantastic and then… stopped working. It’s being replaced.

Ugghh... horrible timing.   

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Moderate Rain/snow mix at home. 33.8 degrees. If tonight can’t produce pure snow I’m not sure how tomorrow can unless we can get more cold air pulled in from the north or east. 

Well there will definitely be easterly flow tomorrow and the dewpoint will be lower.   

[Omegaraptor]

Winthrop still at 8°F. What a fukkin climate.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

4 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Moderate Rain/snow mix at home. 33.8 degrees. If tonight can’t produce pure snow I’m not sure how tomorrow can unless we can get more cold air pulled in from the north or east. 

That's the problem with this whole situation. Fraser outflow is always late to the party but this is also going to have some offshore flow to help dry out the lower layers of air. The last shower over me was mostly rain so I'm loosing confidence. The flow is turning and Bellingham is down to 30.

[Thurston Howell III]

I will say in all my years of driving the roads may have been about the worst this morning.  Definitely should not have taken the usual backroads to work from Gig Harbor to Manchester.  Winding hilly roads and not to far from the sound, but usually a few minutes quicker.  35 degrees and roads were mostly bare and a little bit of slushy snow at my place but within a mile from my house it was pretty bad and only got worse.  Looks like the most snow from last night was probably an inch or less, and the black ice was insane.  Looked at doppler and it showed rain for an hour or so after it snowed earlier.  The black ice seemed to be fairly thick from the freezing rain.  The local "Banner jump" area was insane.  

[Brennan]

Absolutely sh***ing snow right now! Down to 31* in North Bellingham. This was unexpected. 

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

That's the problem with this whole situation. Fraser outflow is always late to the party but this is also going to have some offshore flow to help dry out the lower layers of air. The last shower over me was mostly rain so I'm loosing confidence. The flow is turning and Bellingham is down to 30.

Tomorrow night is an entirely different situation.   This is sloppy onshore flow... tomorrow evening is offshore flow before the onshore flow really cranks up by Thursday morning.  

[bainbridgekid]

1 minute ago, Brennan said:

Absolutely sh***ing snow right now! Down to 31* in North Bellingham. This was unexpected. 

Models actually did show some pretty heavy snow for Whatcom County this evening. Enjoy it! You should get nailed tomorrow night before the warmup.

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Winthrop still at 8°F. What a fukkin climate.

Sounds painfully cold... hard pass for me.    No interest in living in that kind of cold again.    Give me some 30-degree snow... much more pleasant.  

[TT-SEA]

28 minutes ago, Loniu7 said:

School is already on a 2 hr delay for tomorrow.  They are going to be running out of snow days when February comes.

But I think it isnt going to snow

Pretty ridiculous.   If this week is the last of the winter weather then they can get away with this stuff.   But if we have many more weeks ahead with wintry conditions then it will be real interesting to see how fast the districts learn to just deal with it.   

[RentonHill]

6 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Winthrop still at 8°F. What a fukkin climate.

Was beautiful up there today. Only snapped one quick pic of the driveway entrance off the cams but it looked like a good day. Even though it stayed 10-15 all day thats tolerable/enjoyable in the sun.

[MossMan]

11 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Well there will definitely be easterly flow tomorrow and the dewpoint will be lower.   

Ahhhh gotcha. Thanks! 

[MossMan]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Sounds painfully cold... hard pass for me.    No interest in living in that kind of cold again.    Give me some 30-degree snow... much more pleasant.  

30 is too close for comfort. Between 15 and 25 is perfect! 

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, MossMan said:

30 is too close for comfort. Between 15 and 25 is perfect! 

OK... I will give you 25.   

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

5 minutes ago, MossMan said:

30 is too close for comfort. Between 15 and 25 is perfect! 

15 degrees over there doesn't feel that cold. Honestly 28 degrees here with humidity feels 3 times colder. I can be outside in jeans and a hoodie at my cabin in 15 degrees and not be uncomfortable.  It's strange. Over here I am chilled to the bone at 34.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Outflow is really ramping up into the Fraser canyon.  

[The Swamp]

Second half of January trending in the wrong direction.

[MossMan]

29 in Lynden, 27 in Sumas. C’MON get that cold air worked down here!!!