PNW January 2022, Contact Info for Phil

[Gummy]

That doesn't sound very classic. Classic fringe event maybe.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Just now, Hawksfan2008 said:

A “classic overrunning event” but also, don’t expect much for most areas. 

Tough forecast,  will have to wait and see when and how much Fraser and east wind we get tomorrow.   

[TacomaWaWx]

Just now, DJ Droppin said:

Wait. WHAT? 3-5" of snow is considering pulling back? You've had persistent cold and snow since Christmas, well almost. Several shots of accumulating snowfall. Now more on the way. You have absolutely zero to complain or whine about up north. You should consider yourselves living a very charmed life if you like cold and snow! Winter just began this has been a phenomenal front end thus far. BUT. Do not get too snow greedy.

00z GFS in 4 hours 19 minutes

Has been a pretty epic run. I think trace to 1” is likely here at most 2”. Like I was saying earlier there’s been 12 days with snow in the air and 8 measurable snowfall days…about to be 9 days with measurable snowfall. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Just now, TacomaWaWx said:

Has been a pretty epic run. I think trace to 1” is likely here at most 2”. Like I was saying earlier there’s been 12 days with snow in the air and 8 measurable snowfall days…about to be 9 days with measurable snowfall. 

That's outstanding. We could only hope and dream to see that during any Winter!

[TacomaWaWx]

2 minutes ago, Hawksfan2008 said:

A “classic overrunning event” but also, don’t expect much for most areas. 

I think most places will atleast see some snow in Puget sound. Definitely don’t think we get close to the gfs amounts though. 

[The Blob]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I hate to say this, but I don't think we are going to see a very good fake cold setup coming up. Maybe Sunday-Tuesday, but those systems brushing by starting the middle of next week are going to mix us out. 

[TT-SEA]

17 minutes ago, 1000'NorthBend said:

Seattle NWS issued a Flood Watch for late Wednesday through Saturday afternoon. Winter Storm Watch now says 2 to 6 inches possible through late Wednesday night for San Juan County, Western Whatcom, and EPSL. My point forecast (not perfect) says 4 to 8" of snow between now and Thursday morning, followed by 2 to 3" of rain on Thursday alone. It's going to get messy in the foothills. 

Its already pretty messy... our road is a slushy mess with standing water in places and the snow has sunken down quite a bit and is really mushy as opposed to powdery yesterday morning.    Going to be a serious mess on Thursday... not sure the water will be able to drain off our road with the high snowbanks.  

[MossMan]

23 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

May have been posted already but I like this!

 

Glad I just ordered new sleds for the kids!! 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

33 degrees and snowing at home according to the girls. 

[Hawksfan2008]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

It already pretty messy... our road a slushy mess with standing water in places and the snow has sunken down quite a bit and is really mushy as opposed to powdery yesterday morning.    Going to be a serious mess on Thursday... not sure the water will be able to drain off our road with the high snowbanks.  

How does North Bend usually do with these events? Seems like the GFS performed better than the EURO for here Sunday night as far as east wind/cold. Is that common? 

[TT-SEA]

7 minutes ago, Hawksfan2008 said:

How does North Bend usually do with these events? Seems like the GFS performed better than the EURO for here Sunday night as far as east wind/cold. Is that common? 

So many variables.   I assume this will not be the same type of situation as Sunday.   We had arctic air still pouring in through the pass on Sunday and that helped keep our precip as snow when it was raining all around us.     Its currently 28 at Snoqualmie Summit.    Not quite the same cold air source now.     And the angle of the flow matters as well.   I have seen many cold rain events with an east wind.    But maybe the dewpoint will be just low enough.   The other issue is that we have warm air moving in aloft by Wednesday night.   Even the 850mb level is above zero by Wednesday night.    We don't want a cold layer trapped at the surface in that situation because if the precip turns to rain at the 850mb level its not turning back to snow at the surface.   Then we are crippled with freezing rain. 

[Gradient Keeper]

11 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I hate to say this, but I don't think we are going to see a very good fake cold setup coming up. Maybe Sunday-Tuesday, but those systems brushing by starting the middle of next week are going to mix us out. 

Ensembles don't show any weak systems doing so, just the Op. Mega cold pool coming up. MBG

[ShawniganLake]

Been snowing on and off most of the afternoon here. Picked up another inch. So about 4” since last evening 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Ensembles don't show any weak systems doing so, just the Op. Mega cold pool coming up. MBG

Better get my D**n money back if it doesn't work out!

[Jbolin]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Better get my D**n money back if it doesn't work out!

D**n Skippy 

 

[joelgombiner]

I've been thinking about the GFS and snow forecasts in Puget Sound. 

The GFS sees a very smoothed-out version of our topography. The base resolution is 18 miles, meaning that each square 18 miles x 18 miles is represented with one elevation value. This results in some huge distortions for a state like Washington with very rough mountains. 

Look at how the GFS sees the Cascades in Washington. There's a strip of high topography (represented by reds) cross-cut by two valleys: the Columbia Gorge (along the Oregon-Washington border), and a valley that I've circled in red. This area represents the Snoqualmie River valley, and the Yakima River Valleys where they cross the Cascades. 

Compare the GFS topography to the real topography. I've roughly circled the same area on a high-resolution map of topography. In reality, there is no smooth and wide valley across the Cascades. You know this if you've driven I-90. While there are smooth and wide sections, other areas, such as the approach to Snoqualmie Pass are in narrow, winding valleys. This is important for how low-level air flows across the landscape. 

I think we saw the problem with this representation of topography last Sunday. An Arctic high had built into the Columbia Basin, with bitterly cold air and high pressures around 1024 mb MSLP to the east of the Cascades. At the same time, Pacific air with lower pressures around 1010 mb MSLP had moved in west of the Cascades. I suspect the GFS modeled too much of the Arctic air pouring across the Cascades, because its version of the topography has an unrealistically wide valley along the I-90 corridor. In reality, air had a harder time moving through the narrow, winding valleys that characterize the true topography. 

One way to keep track of this problem is to look at Yakima-Seattle pressure gradients and temperature gradients. As those gradients get higher, this topography problem should result in increasing distortions in GFS predictions for areas around King County. 

Thoughts? 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Phil]

40 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

Looks like I hop right back into the swamp in February. Tornados for Valentines. 

That would be a wicked severe pattern in February given increasing insolation.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

The gfs resolution is 10km now I thought not 18 miles.

[MossMan]

How’s the NAM? 

[Bryant]

5 minutes ago, MossMan said:

How’s the NAM? 

 

[Deweydog]

24 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Better get my D**n money back if it doesn't work out!

He conveniently leaves out the fact that you can only get forum store credit. Hope you like “IT’S A LOCK” beer coozies and Judah voodoo dolls.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

He conveniently leaves out the fact that you can only get forum store credit. Hope you like “IT’S A LOCK” beer coozies and Judah voodoo dolls.

Fred should start a TWF crypto. We could call it SNOWBUX @MR.SNOWMIZERyou in?

[Gradient Keeper]

25 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Better get my D**n money back if it doesn't work out!

I understand your angst, Sir, and appreciate your patience. Would monopoly money be a sufficient form of refund?

00z ECMWF in 5 hours 36 minutes

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Fred should start a TWF crypto. @MR.SNOWMIZERyou in?

I'll buy 6 billion coins for $20!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I'll buy 6 billion coins for $20!

I'll match that. Gonna need a proper circulation supply.

[Gradient Keeper]

22 minutes ago, joelgombiner said:

I've been thinking about the GFS and snow forecasts in Puget Sound. 

The GFS sees a very smoothed-out version of our topography. The base resolution is 18 miles, meaning that each square 18 miles x 18 miles is represented with one elevation value. This results in some huge distortions for a state like Washington with very rough mountains. 

Look at how the GFS sees the Cascades in Washington. There's a strip of high topography (represented by reds) cross-cut by two valleys: the Columbia Gorge (along the Oregon-Washington border), and a valley that I've circled in red. This area represents the Snoqualmie River valley, and the Yakima River Valleys where they cross the Cascades. 

Compare the GFS topography to the real topography. I've roughly circled the same area on a high-resolution map of topography. In reality, there is no smooth and wide valley across the Cascades. You know this if you've driven I-90. While there are smooth and wide sections, other areas, such as the approach to Snoqualmie Pass are in narrow, winding valleys. This is important for how low-level air flows across the landscape. 

I think we saw the problem with this representation of topography last Sunday. An Arctic high had built into the Columbia Basin, with bitterly cold air and high pressures around 1024 mb MSLP to the east of the Cascades. At the same time, Pacific air with lower pressures around 1010 mb MSLP had moved in west of the Cascades. I suspect the GFS modeled too much of the Arctic air pouring across the Cascades, because its version of the topography has an unrealistically wide valley along the I-90 corridor. In reality, air had a harder time moving through the narrow, winding valleys that characterize the true topography. 

One way to keep track of this problem is to look at Yakima-Seattle pressure gradients and temperature gradients. As those gradients get higher, this topography problem should result in increasing distortions in GFS predictions for areas around King County. 

Thoughts? 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Hey good post. Real solid.

[MossMan]

8 minutes ago, Bryant said:

 

Thanks. 

[Hawksfan2008]

[Meatyorologist]

26 minutes ago, joelgombiner said:

I've been thinking about the GFS and snow forecasts in Puget Sound. 

The GFS sees a very smoothed-out version of our topography. The base resolution is 18 miles, meaning that each square 18 miles x 18 miles is represented with one elevation value. This results in some huge distortions for a state like Washington with very rough mountains. 

Look at how the GFS sees the Cascades in Washington. There's a strip of high topography (represented by reds) cross-cut by two valleys: the Columbia Gorge (along the Oregon-Washington border), and a valley that I've circled in red. This area represents the Snoqualmie River valley, and the Yakima River Valleys where they cross the Cascades. 

Compare the GFS topography to the real topography. I've roughly circled the same area on a high-resolution map of topography. In reality, there is no smooth and wide valley across the Cascades. You know this if you've driven I-90. While there are smooth and wide sections, other areas, such as the approach to Snoqualmie Pass are in narrow, winding valleys. This is important for how low-level air flows across the landscape. 

I think we saw the problem with this representation of topography last Sunday. An Arctic high had built into the Columbia Basin, with bitterly cold air and high pressures around 1024 mb MSLP to the east of the Cascades. At the same time, Pacific air with lower pressures around 1010 mb MSLP had moved in west of the Cascades. I suspect the GFS modeled too much of the Arctic air pouring across the Cascades, because its version of the topography has an unrealistically wide valley along the I-90 corridor. In reality, air had a harder time moving through the narrow, winding valleys that characterize the true topography. 

One way to keep track of this problem is to look at Yakima-Seattle pressure gradients and temperature gradients. As those gradients get higher, this topography problem should result in increasing distortions in GFS predictions for areas around King County. 

Thoughts? 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Top-tier post!

[MossMan]

8 minutes ago, Hawksfan2008 said:

Better! 

[jakerepp]

1 hour ago, Kuna_Idaho_Dude said:

Ah nice! Yeah we moved over here from Auburn WA in July. Quite a bit different weather wise which I love. Got 4 seasons too! 

I was checking out weather stations on Wunderground and saw a -9 in Kuna the other morning!

[Brennan]

I’m full on ready for a bust tomorrow night. This system needed to come in a few days ago.

[jakerepp]

16 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

I'll match that. Gonna need a proper circulation supply.

What will be the max circulating supply though?

[TT-SEA]

Just did a traffic cam tour of the Seattle area to check on conditions... I noticed that Covington and Maple Valley are doing quite well at hanging onto snow cover.    Better than almost all other lowland places... even Lynnwood.

[TT-SEA]

6 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

18z Euro still looking pretty meager with the supposed overrunning event tomorrow into Thursday. This is 24-hour totals ending 10AM Thursday. 

I'm fully expecting maybe a quick shot of snow but a fairly fast turnover to rain with little to no accumulation outside of Whatcom County. GFS is out to lunch. 

The terrain resolution on the ECMWF is also pretty bad.   Its so noticeable on the snow maps.   As if there is a perfect line across King County where the elevation jumps up 2,000 feet.    

[TT-SEA]

Any news on the SEA radar?    So annoying.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

4 minutes ago, jakerepp said:

What will be the max circulating supply though?

500T maybe?

[Timmy Supercell]

ThunderCoin!

Or, WxCoin

I'd buy. 

[TT-SEA]

Looks like the SEA radar just came back up!