PNW January 2022, Contact Info for Phil

[MossMan]

13 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

2006-07

Such a great winter!! 

[BLI snowman]

32 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Andrew will be right with you. 

Should be a mainly dry, backdoor blast with a single undercutting low. Which will have a distinct precip cutoff with dry conditions persisting from Lakewood-north. Nasty little warm nose in the Oregon Cascade foothills also, which will be particularly apparent in SE Marion County.

[Thunder98]

I really hope we see a strong El Niño next Fall. I hope CA gets pounded by strong storms from Oct to May. 

[Timmy Supercell]

I actually keep forgetting that initially 14-15 wasn't a real strong Nino but then got stronger in late 2015. 

It was a real good windstorm pattern though.

[MossMan]

31 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

Woke up this morning to extremely icy conditions, our road didn't fully thaw until 11.  Daughters school was closed for today and rightfully so.

Our roads were horrible as well. We had about a half inch of snow early this morning and the roadways are so cold it just turned that slop right into ice. Taking the kids to school this morning at the on-ramp to I-5 there was a guy that lost control and went up a steep embankment and another vehicle was sideways off into the dirt. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

Should be a mainly dry, backdoor blast with a single undercutting low. Which will have a distinct precip cutoff with dry conditions persisting from Lakewood-north. Nasty little warm nose in the Oregon Cascade foothills also, which will be particularly apparent in SE Marion County.

That's okay, I can hold out for some cold onshore flow starting around valentine's day and going until summer begins in mid-April. A couple of dry crisp days sound delightful right now. 

[BLI snowman]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

That's okay, I can hold out for some cold onshore flow starting around valentine's day and going until summer begins in mid-April. A couple of dry crisp days sound delightful right now. 

Cold/wet March followed by an Arizona April and devastatingly dry May!

Nino forcing kicks in by mid June.

[Omegaraptor]

Another 24” of snow at Timberline past 24 hours. This winter is trying to match 1998-99 isn’t it

[Chewbacca Defense]

46 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

Woke up this morning to extremely icy conditions, our road didn't fully thaw until 11.  Daughters school was closed for today and rightfully so.

At least 1 school district got it right!

[Omegaraptor]

9 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Cold/wet March followed by an Arizona April and devastatingly dry May!

Nino forcing kicks in by mid June.

Cool/dry March for the western Willamette Valley. Cold with record precipitation and flooding in Tim and Mossman land.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Another 24” of snow at Timberline past 24 hours. This winter is trying to match 1998-99 isn’t it

This winter has definitely featured some 1998-99/2007-08 tendencies. Would not surprise me if this upcoming dry stretch ends up being shorter than currently expected. We had 28 days with precip to end December, so we are certainly due for some kind of break. When we had sun on New Year's day it felt like an old friend I hadn't seen in 6 weeks. Usually my trips to Oklahoma provide me some vitamin D in the winter, but this December it was unusually cloudy when I was there too. 

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

This winter has definitely featured some 1998-99/2007-08 tendencies. Would not surprise me if this upcoming dry stretch ends up being shorter than currently expected. We had 28 days with precip to end December, so we are certainly due for some kind of break. When we had sun on New Year's day it felt like an old friend I hadn't seen in 6 weeks. Usually my trips to Oklahoma provide me some vitamin D in the winter, but this December it was unusually cloudy when I was there too. 

We got a full load of winter Vitamin D in Hawaii.    Not sure how much Vitamin D you can get in Oklahoma in December.   I know at our latitude up here you get zero from November - February even if it is sunny every day.    But there is also a mental aspect to seeing the sun.   

[AlTahoe]

2 hours ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Exactly. Feels like a lost cause until February again. At least we had a fun end to December this time. The winter is still a solid A for this location you can't hope for much better than 10" of snow.

It is looking like another shut out or close to it for most of California for Jan if the long range models are to be believed. If that's the case it will be eerily similar to the winter of 2010-2011. We had a big Oct storm like this year, big Dec then a 6 week shut down for Jan to mid Feb. Then it didn't stop snowing here in Tahoe till early July that winter. Hoping for a repeat. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

8 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Another 24” of snow at Timberline past 24 hours. This winter is trying to match 1998-99 isn’t it

Snowpack in the Rogue-Umpqua basin is 216% of normal. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

We got a full load of winter Vitamin D in Hawaii.    Not sure how much Vitamin D you can get in Oklahoma in December.   I know at our latitude up here you get zero from November - February even if it is sunny every day.    But there is also a mental aspect to seeing the sun.   

This is why it's extremely important to take D in winter. It's a lot of the reason people get sick more often in winter. I take it every day along with C and I haven't had a cold in a year. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

We got a full load of winter Vitamin D in Hawaii.    Not sure how much Vitamin D you can get in Oklahoma in December.   I know at our latitude up here you get zero from November - February even if it is sunny every day.    But there is also a mental aspect to seeing the sun.   

Tulsa is around 36.5N. So quite a bit further south, but perhaps it is more the mental boost of seeing the sun that I feel. 

I'm not a big supplement guy, but I did start taking vitamin D back in November, and I can definitely tell a difference. If I forget to take it for a few days I can feel the difference too. 

[Bryant]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

This is why it's extremely important to take D in winter. It's a lot of the reason people get sick more often in winter. I take it every day along with C and I haven't had a cold in a year. 

I'll be sure to pass this along...

[Loniu7]

4 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

This is why it's extremely important to take D in winter. It's a lot of the reason people get sick more often in winter. I take it every day along with C and I haven't had a cold in a year. 

Having ms, living here is perhaps not the best place. I take supplemental vitamin d units for years, as my levels are always low. Hawaiian transplant,  I should move back , but not much snow there!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

38 with heavy rain. 0.76" on the day. Over 3" for January already. 

[bainbridgekid]

High-Res WRF:

 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

8 minutes ago, Bryant said:

I'll be sure to pass this along...

I walked into that. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Just now, bainbridgekid said:

High-Res WRF:

 

Kinda makes you wonder. This would be a major event.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Portland NWS just issued a flood watch for Thursday/Friday. 

[Timmy Supercell]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

38 with heavy rain. 0.76" on the day. Over 3" for January already. 

I knew it wouldn't be long before you top my 1.7" rain on New Year's.  

[bainbridgekid]

5 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Kinda makes you wonder. This would be a major event.

It's a tough one. We don't really have any cold/dry air in place yet and will be relying on the offshore flow caused by the approaching low to cool us down as the moisture is starting. That can work out for us as long as we hold onto offshore winds, but it can also not quite get cold enough and result in a lot of 34-36 degree rain if models slightly overestimate it. Definitely not the classic overrunning slam dunk it would be with cold/dry air already in place before the storm.

[MossMan]

5 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

High-Res WRF:

 

Yep I will take that!!! That dot of purple is over my roof! 

[TT-SEA]

9 minutes ago, Loniu7 said:

Having ms, living here is perhaps not the best place. I take supplemental vitamin d units for years, as my levels are always low. Hawaiian transplant,  I should move back , but not much snow there!

On Christmas Day... we were on the beach near Waikoloa on the Big Island watching my son surfing and some people pulled up with a pick up truck full of snow (they had gone up to Mauna Kea) and they proceeded to have a snowball fight and build a snowman on the beach in 83-degree weather.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

5 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

I knew it wouldn't be long before you top my 1.7" rain on New Year's.  

I'm pretty pleased with how the water year has been going so far. We had a tremendous amount of light warm front drizzle/rain in October and November which helped us do much better compared to average than the valley. And then December was wet all around. Things definitely look to dry out by the end of the weekend, but by that point we will already be off to a great start. 

[MossMan]

4 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

It's a tough one. We don't really have any cold/dry air in place yet and will be relying on the offshore flow caused by the approaching low to cool us down as the moisture is starting. That can work out for us as long as we hold onto offshore winds, but it can also not quite get cold enough and result in a low of 34-36 degree rain if models slightly overestimate it. Definitely not the classic overrunning slam dunk it would be with cold/dry air already in place before the storm.

It might just come down to the power of belief!! And stay away from the Racoons! 

[Deweydog]

18z is ruining!!!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

6 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

It's a tough one. We don't really have any cold/dry air in place yet and will be relying on the offshore flow caused by the approaching low to cool us down as the moisture is starting. That can work out for us as long as we hold onto offshore winds, but it can also not quite get cold enough and result in a lot of 34-36 degree rain if models slightly overestimate it. Definitely not the classic overrunning slam dunk it would be with cold/dry air already in place before the storm.

At this point away from the water and above 400ft look solid for accumulation.  Unfortunately we won't know until we see what the offshore winds do and how much outflow happens tomorrow.  Outflow has crossed the border and Bellingham is changing to a easterly.

[Gummy]

Cliff is onboard for a couple inches of 33 degree snow in the lowlands. Not shocking as thats what the WRF shows.

[GHweatherChris]

Cliff should be on board since the only model he uses buries us in snow.

[MossMan]

Sleet! 36. 

[SnowWillarrive]

2 minutes ago, Gummy said:

Cliff is onboard for a couple inches of 33 degree snow in the lowlands. Not shocking as thats what the WRF shows.

I’m rooting for him this time. 

[Timmy Supercell]

2 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

Cliff should be on board since the only model he uses buries us in snow.

And keep in mind that snow depths can be different from snow totals. 

[BLI snowman]

7 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

18z is ruining!!!

[TacomaWaWx]

#unbancliffmass

[TacomaWaWx]

39 with light rain here in Tacoma. Positive splat tests currently. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

Looking a hair warmer so far this run