Probabilities of > 1 inch snowfall over the next week have gone down across the ensemble suites with this morning's 12z runs. In sticking with the theme this season, both clippers (tmrw and weekend) are trending weaker and/or further north as they get closer. So tired of chasing half inch snowfalls and pretending there is a chance for more after it continuously fails to materialize. I will join our pessimistic SE NE member in saying this has been such a lame winter so far. I'm hopeful of the western trough pattern change to shake things up but honestly, it seems to continue getting pushed back on the ensembles. Take the GEFS for example. The pattern change that was once scheduled for around the 18th-20th now looks awfully similar to the crap pattern we have been in all winter with the Aleutian Low/+PNA/eastern trough thing going on. More moisture-starved clippers that usually pass by to my north. Hooray. Almost think the advertised -PNA flip is moreso an artifact of the La Nina background state and models just defaulting to that in the long range before settling back into this year's seemingly stuck pattern. Maybe it'll actually happen in February?

I was going off of the PNA forecast (GFS and Euro) more than anything…And it was becoming consistent for a dip so I was starting to let my guard down. Shame on me for sure.

I would like to say this will be coming soon as something to look forward to…But the PNA will finally dip into the negative around March 20th and remain there for the next 5 months. I’m in a bad mood today.

The graphics and views on this models are terrible. It's supposed to be the best model out there though.

Especially in the longer range, I always put more faith in the mean.