1/9-1/10 Panhandler

[Geos]

There's more interaction between the system and the ULL digging in on this NAM run.

Taking on a more neutral look. (Shaded area of SW Wisc.)

 

 

[Geos]

Nice upwards motion over Chicago into NW IN.

 

 

So close to interacting...

 

[Maxim]

looks like LOT is going with a WSW for the extreme SE counties... good call I'd say.

[Maxim]

final call for ORD: DAB

looking pretty good right now

[Geos]

RGEM says NE IL isn't off the hook yet.

Liking where the 10" spot is.

 

GFS stopped it's eastward bleeding.

 

[Tony]

RGEM says NE IL isn't off the hook yet.

Liking where the 10" spot is.

 

That 10" spot has to be LES. Baby stepping it's way back hopefully.

[FV-Mike]

LOT updated snowfall map. still solid 2-4 up to GEO's way

 

 

[Geos]

That 10" spot has to be LES. Baby stepping it's way back hopefully.

 

Could be.

GFS stopped in it's tracks and is slightly better with the interaction of the northern stream ULL.

Better lift gets into NE IL this time around.

 

 

 

The HRRR is coming in slightly NW than any other model.

 

[Geos]

Two WRF models came back further west.

 

 

 

----

 

[gosaints]

Geos bored? Only one more hrrr run before the NAM

[Geos]

Geos bored? Only one more hrrr run before the NAM

 

Yep,

[Tom]

Just got back in the saddle.  Has anyone been outside today???  Can you say...depressing???  Damp, rainy and D**n Foggy!  Can't wait to see some snow fly IMBY tomorrow night.  Snow cover to a bit of a beating today and grassy spots are beginning to show.

 

Anyhow, this is certainly one of the more exciting systems to track this season due to the fact that there are still questions how much this system can phase and interact with the northern stream.  I've seen systems in the past over perform and the models usually ended up right on the track, but lacked on the amount of snow fall on the NW side of the low.  I wouldn't worry to much on the width of the snow band the models are painting because in the end, its only a computer interpretation of what "may" happen.  I'd imagine the snow band to be wider so whoever is on the NW side of the low say roughly 150 miles +/- 25 mi should score some good snowfall totals.  Unless the radar imagery becomes so compact it will be a win or lose type scenario and a sharp cut off.

 

Meantime, just checked the 15z SREF Mean Plume for ORD and it crept up to about 6"...not bad...up from 5.6" @ 12z...

[Tom]

00z NAM just shifted the snow band almost 50 miles SE...

[Tom]

Not a good trend for Chicago that's for sure...SREF's down to about 3" for ORD...give me a couple inches is all I asked for...

[Geos]

00z NAM just shifted the snow band almost 50 miles SE...

 

That's a huge shift 18 hours out! Hopefully it's a fluke run and other models don't follow.

 

Think i might ride the 18z runs. I have found out: Usually the models are most accurate; outside of the highest resolutions, around 24 hours out.

[Money]

Lol geos

[gosaints]

That's a huge shift 18 hours out! Hopefully it's a fluke run and other models don't follow.

 

Think i might ride the 18z runs. I have found out: Usually the models are most accurate; outside of the highest resolutions, around 24 hours out.

They others may not follow the nam but riding the 18z suite over the 0z suite is interesting to say the least

[Sleather]

Yep, Chicagoland is out of it. It's a Michiana snow show.

[Geos]

They others may not follow the nam but riding the 18z suite over the 0z suite is interesting to say the least

 

I wish the convection was heading northwards. Usually that means the low will get a little bump northwards in return.

 

I still don't think NW IN is going to miss out or even southern Cook County. Can always hope for a little snow from the lake.

[Tom]

Jaster is in a primo location now...latest RPM spit out 8"+...so is WestMJim...ORD riding the northern end...not a good position to be in esp with this type of storm.

[Geos]

RGEM doesn't shift as far.

 

Lock the 2.5" and call it a day. Grass tips are beginning to show outside and that would be more than enough to cover them over again.

I'll ride this -

 

Crazy back and forth tug of war we got going on here, lol.

[jaster220]

Jaster is in a primo location now...latest RPM spit out 8"+...so is WestMJim...ORD riding the northern end...not a good position to be in esp with this type of storm.

 

Thanks for the heads-up Tom! Tough thing to post when the models are trending down your way. Did you see my (j/k'g post) spoof earlier today? Went to get some help reeling this a bit my way - Jim and I are working hard. He really deserves it since I've had one biggie already. Can't believe it's my 3rd WSWatch in the record heatwave autumn and December - craziest stuff happens sometimes, eh?  You guys across the lake have done really good, especially GEOS. Hoping Chi-town on over to mby gets the sweet spot this go-around.

[Tom]

Thanks for the heads-up Tom! Tough thing to post when the models are trending down your way. Did you see my (j/k'g post) spoof earlier today? Went to get some help reeling this a bit my way - Jim and I are working hard. He really deserves it since I've had one biggie already. Can't believe it's my 3rd WSWatch in the record heatwave autumn and December - craziest stuff happens sometimes, eh?  You guys across the lake have done really good, especially GEOS. Hoping Chi-town on over to mby gets the sweet spot this go-around.

Saw that and I chuckled when I read it on my phone.  Hey man, Mother Nature will do what she wants to do.  I just want enough to cover up the grass again!  There are going to be more chances for snow, especially next week when a Clipper or two traverse the region.  This system looks to bring it all...snow/wind and LES to put icing on the cake.  You may end up close to 10" if the LES bands set up right.

[Geos]

Tom I think the RGEM is showing lake enhancement/effect, that's why the snow is showing up further west. Really good NE wind flow 925mb and up for about 6 hours. Delta Ts starting at 12°C and going up to 15°C.

 

 

[Tom]

Tom I think the RGEM is showing lake enhancement/effect, that's why the snow is showing up further west. Really good NE wind flow 925mb and up for about 6 hours. Delta Ts starting at 12°C and going up to 15°C.

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/rgem/20160109/00Z/f27/850mbtempmw.png

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/rgem/20160109/00Z/f30/850mbtempmw.png

Since the models are trending a bit farther SE, this actually increases chances for Lehs.  More colder air will be in place at this time.  Hope to see some bands coming off the lake!  I remember last year the models were showing a marginal set up for LES and it turned out to be a decent event.  I like the chances, esp with a strong arctic HP not to far NW.

[Tom]

00z GFS...weak in MO/IL...1-3" in NE IL...then cranks things up in N MI...

[Geos]

Well there's two models against the NAM.

I'll take the GFS also. 2" is fine.

 

TT map is slightly more generous in NE IL.

Lake enhancement is also there, although the time span is a probably more like 4 hours.

 

[Geos]

Hard to tell exactly what happens, but here is the black and white GGEM maps.

 

 

[gosaints]

That low off the coast has to be hurting quite abit.  By hour 11 on the hrrr its quite a bit stronger than the northern low

[jaster220]

Saw that and I chuckled when I read it on my phone.  Hey man, Mother Nature will do what she wants to do.  I just want enough to cover up the grass again!  There are going to be more chances for snow, especially next week when a Clipper or two traverse the region.  This system looks to bring it all...snow/wind and LES to put icing on the cake.  You may end up close to 10" if the LES bands set up right.

 

Great call. That was my original target (dbl digits). Models not ramping output today though, so I'm tempering my call to 5" synoptic plus 3-5" Lehs-->LES. WPC maps showing SN still over SWMI at midnight Sunday courtesy of the Lake. So, for once the lake may pay dividends over on my side. Can't wait to find out!

 

Looking at the NOAA map, notice how the SLP makes a turn around Lk. Erie and shoots much more northerly. That's when she really bombs and goes all out bliz over the reindeer and moose north of Superior. We rarely see that track (i.e. 15-Nov-89 bliz) work out, but when it has, look out! Usually a very favorable signal for Lake Mich to fire up, and she's a big ole hot tub of steam waiting for the real arctic tongue to come down this year. Should be interesting somewhere between me and Jim up in GR.

 

 

[Tom]

That low off the coast has to be hurting quite abit.  By hour 11 on the hrrr its quite a bit stronger than the northern low

Sometimes the storms along the Gulf can rob the moisture to the north and thus weakening the low to the north.

[Tom]

RPM still painting 2.4" Waukegan, 3.8" ORD, 4.6 City and 5-7" in NW IN...

[Geos]

HRRR plasters St. Louis and just north and west of there tomorrow.

 

[Geos]

GGEM is coming in with a better phase, slower movement.

Edit: Maybe not so much. About like the gfs.

[Tom]

00z GGEM...

 

[Geos]

UKMET.

 

 

 

[OKwx2k4]

Hard to tell exactly what happens, but here is the black and white GGEM maps.

 

http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/528_100.gif

 

http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/530_100.gif

Can I get a link to where you get those? I'd like to be able to look at them for when the storm is down around my area.

[Geos]

Can I get a link to where you get those? I'd like to be able to look at them for when the storm is down around my area.

 

http://weather.gc.ca/model_forecast/global_e.html

[OKwx2k4]

Thanks Geos

[Steblow]

panhandler storm?  money man wishes it was