2-19/2-21 Great Lakes Winter Storm...Heavy Rain/Flooding and Snow

[Money]

SREF plumes with 5-6+ in OSH and GRB. 

 

2+ in MKE

[Tom]

Something to keep an eye on is that northern piece of energy near S Canada and how that plays out if the trough is strong enough to push the system farther SE or if it stays weak the track will maintain.

[Money]

NAM bufkit for here:

 

140220/1900Z 73 11018KT 32.6F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.009 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01 0| 0|100
140220/2000Z 74 11020KT 32.8F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.028 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.04 0| 0|100
140220/2100Z 75 12021KT 32.8F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.009 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.05 0| 0|100
140220/2200Z 76 14014KT 32.8F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.140 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.19 0| 0|100
140220/2300Z 77 14006KT 32.6F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.073 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.26 0| 0|100
140221/0000Z 78 13004KT 32.1F FZDZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.025 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.28 0| 0|100
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
140221/0100Z 79 21004KT 32.3F DZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.024 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.31 0| 0|100
140221/0200Z 80 25011KT 31.9F FZDZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.03|| 0.029 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.03|| 0.34 0| 0|100
140221/0300Z 81 27020KT 31.2F SNOW 7:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.018 7:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.03|| 0.35 100| 0| 0
140221/0400Z 82 27024KT 31.4F SNOW 7:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.016 7:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.03|| 0.37 100| 0| 0
140221/0500Z 83 27027KT 31.4F SNOW 10:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.012 8:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.03|| 0.38 100| 0| 0
140221/0600Z 84 27028KT 30.5F SNOW 7:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.006 7:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.03|| 0.39 100| 0| 0

 

 

Nothing like 32.8 and rain lol

[Tom]

I read Gary Lezak's blog and in fact this system is a part of the LRC cycle that brought rain in cycle 2 for Chicago and heavy snow for NW IL/IA/WI.  As I originally thought, this is looking like it will be a rain producer over here.  We are still a little less than 3 days away and shifts may happen...just like today where there was a slight SE shift.  Overall, I expect it to track real close to Chicago, if it does, that should keep heavier rains out of N IL.

[Tony]

I would think with the ground being as cold as it is that there will be icing problems Wed nite/Thurs am.

[Iowawx]

I read Gary Lezak's blog and in fact this system is a part of the LRC cycle that brought rain in cycle 2 for Chicago and heavy snow for NW IL/IA/WI.  As I originally thought, this is looking like it will be a rain producer over here.  We are still a little less than 3 days away and shifts may happen...just like today where there was a slight SE shift.  Overall, I expect it to track real close to Chicago, if it does, that should keep heavier rains out of N IL.

Tom, is this the storm that moved through on December 21-22? If it is, I remember getting 5 inches of snow out of that system. Hopefully its all snow over here. Do you think a southern shift has a better chance of happening than a northern shift? 

[Tom]

Yup, that's the system that almost wiped our snow pack right before Christmas and you guys got some pretty good snows.  I think the track is pretty much set as all the models are within 50 miles of each other.  There may be some more wiggle room and depending on how the snow pack affects the track (if it does at all) that is still up in the air.

[Money]

18z GFS ensembles continues the look of a more SE track with not one ensemble having a low farther NW than the op. Most, if not all would be majority snow in S. WI

 

18z ensembles:

 

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/ENSPRSNE_18z/f78.html

[Madtown]

well heres to the trend crap out and give me .2 of rain call it good. would like snow on the ground before the next cold spell

[james1976]

nice write up from DMX, for once.

UNFORTUNATELY THE MILD AND QUIET DAYS WILL BE RUDELY INTERRUPTED  
BY A STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND  
THURSDAY. THERE HAS BEEN BETTER MODEL CONSENSUS WITH THE SOLUTIONS  
FOR THIS SYSTEM TODAY AND CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN A FAIRLY  
HIGH PRECIPITATION EVENT UNFOLDING ACROSS THE FORECAST  
AREA...PARTICULARLY BETWEEN MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND MAYBE  
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE DEGREE OF PHASING IS STILL IN  
QUESTION...BUT IF IT LINES UP RIGHT THINGS COULD GET INTERESTING.  
INITIALLY A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES  
LATE WEDNESDAY...AHEAD OF A 500 MB TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE  
WEST. AS THIS TROUGH MOVES OVER THE HIGH PLAINS IT WILL DEEPEN AND  
THE SURFACE LOW WILL INTENSIFY RAPIDLY OVER  
KANSAS/OKLAHOMA...EXTENDING AN INVERTED TROUGH UP OVER CENTRAL  
IOWA. THIS WILL BE A HIGH ENERGY SYSTEM WITH ROBUST VERTICAL  
FORCING AND DEEP SATURATION. THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE LIES  
IN THERMAL FIELDS...WHICH WILL INITIALLY SUPPORT MOSTLY RAIN AND  
THEN GRADUALLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AS THE SURFACE LOW KICKS OUT  
AND COLDER AIR STREAMS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THERE HAVE BEEN  
INCREASING SIGNALS THAT AS THE LOW BOMBS OUT ACROSS  
MISSOURI/ILLINOIS ON THURSDAY A DEFORMATION ZONE WILL FORM ALONG  
ITS WESTERN PERIPHERY...POSSIBLY OVER OUR AREA...AND IF THE  
PRECIPITATION IS ALL SNOW BY THEN THERE COULD BE SIGNIFICANT  
ACCUMULATIONS IN A FAIRLY NARROW SWATH. UNFORTUNATELY THE ABILITY  
TO PREDICT SUCH SMALL SCALE FEATURES AND THEIR PRECISE LOCATION IS  
QUESTIONABLE AT THIS RANGE...BUT IT WILL BE IMPORTANT TO MONITOR  
THIS POSSIBILITY OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. IT IS ALSO WORTH NOTING  
THAT OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES COULD SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS LATE  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING...BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT  
EXPECTED.  

[james1976]

this storm sounds very interesting with a lot of potential.

[Tom]

After looking at the 18z GFS ensembles, P003 was about the track the storm took in LRC Cycle 3.  I can see the overwhelming agreement on a shift SE on the 18z runs for its ensembles.

[james1976]

better not go that far SE

[WildWisconsinWeather]

18z GFS ensembles continues the look of a more SE track with not one ensemble having a low farther NW than the op. Most, if not all would be majority snow in S. WI

 

18z ensembles:

 

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/ENSPRSNE_18z/f78.html

 

You're very right, Money.  Looks like the consensus average track on those ensembles are around or just north of Chicago.

[WildWisconsinWeather]

It will be interesting to see what impact existing snowcover will have on places like Milwaukee vs what happens for areas with less snowcover like much of Iowa given they're expecting 50s in Des Moines tomorrow and Wednesday.

[Money]

You're very right, Money.  Looks like the consensus average track on those ensembles are around or just north of Chicago.

 

Yeah, could be a trend, or it could be just a typical 18z off run. We'll see in the next couple hours with the 0z runs.

 

I do know that this past system was supposed to give Chicago rain etc, and we all know what happened. Now most of the same areas has an additional 4-6 inches of snowcover, which could help keep the temps even a bit colder. We'll see.

[Jaycee]

Not to rain on your parade Chicago (no pun intended), but I will freak out if this thing shifts anymore SE. This has Nebraska written all over it if it is to go NW. You guys have had plenty.

[Money]

Sorry, but Chicago needs to break the record. 

[Jaycee]

Sorry, but Chicago needs to break the record. 

Don't even start with me lol... we're prone to a nasty drought. And you're pulling for Chi-town?!?!

[Tom]

All the mets here in the city are keeping track of the record almost daily on their broadcasts.  Right now we are in the top 5 snowiest...I can tell most of the mets believe this winter will be a record setting one.

[WildWisconsinWeather]

Don't even start with me lol... we're prone to a nasty drought. And you're pulling for Chi-town?!?!

 

He could do with it staying where it is or shifting SE a tad, as could I.  You're right, in terms of who needs snow (or precip in general) Nebraska would benefit more from this system were it to hit.

[Tom]

Any ideas what the 00z NAM brings???

[Money]

He could do with it staying where it is or shifting SE a tad, as could I.  You're right, in terms of who needs snow (or precip in general) Nebraska would benefit more from this system were it to hit.

 

Yeah GFS as is, probably is a 2-4 snowfall here with the heaviest just NW. 15z SREF has a mean of 5+ in Oshkosh and 2+ in MKE.

 

Just need a small shift SE or a maybe a degree/two colder. 

[WildWisconsinWeather]

Any ideas what the 00z NAM brings???

 

I'm guessing it will take the low somewhere between Milwaukee and Chicago, and will be amped up with high rain and decent snow totals.

[Tom]

I could see the NAM amping the system even more...IMO, I think the trough will kick out farther east and south in the Plains. 

 

Edit: Could see better phasing this run as well...

[Money]

Early guess is NAM comes SE. Out to HR 48.

[Money]

995.2 in OK at hr 54. This looks farther southeast than 18z.

[East Dubzz]

Looks a little further west to me

[Money]

yeah, by HR 60 it's a bit west. Pretty strong too. 

[Trinomial]

Nam has some strength to it.

[DominicR]

Nam has some strength to it.

 

Looks like cold rain here.

[East Dubzz]

NAM a little faster this run it looks like, almost identical track, though.

[Money]

It's also colder than 18z though and shows 2-4 in Milwaukee with the initial slug of precip. 

[DominicR]

Best I see it right now is weak advisory snows in C IA/SE MN/NW WI.

[Trinomial]

Looks like cold rain here.

I was looking at the wrong thing...according the nam snow depth will be near 3-6 inches by hour 60 for Northern IL.

[Iowawx]

Let's see what the 00Z GFS says. I think a deeper snow pack in Eastern Iowa, WI, and IL may keep temps down a little bit. NAM does suggest some snow in Iowa this run.  MSP getting hit hard this run. We NEED a southern shift!! And a stronger storm as well.

[Jaycee]

NAM a little faster this run it looks like, almost identical track, though.

Hmm. The track looks perfect for a Nebraska snowstorm, but the precip is cutoff on the NW side it seems like. Does anybody know why?

[WildWisconsinWeather]

Best I see it right now is weak advisory snows in C IA/SE MN/NW WI.

 

Really?  Are you saying you think almost no precip in the cold sector, or are you thinking it's coming SE?

[Money]

Ends up 983.5 over GB at HR 72.

[Jaycee]

Best I see it right now is weak advisory snows in C IA/SE MN/NW WI.

That's all I see as well. NW sector doesn't really get going. Weird to see that given how powerful of a storm it is.