March 2017 Observations and Discussion

[NEJeremy]

Uh 20 c 850s would support temps approaching 90...

Since you can't look at soundings on the Euro and can't see surface maps for the temperatures on the Euro, I took a look at the GFS and took a look at soundings for areas that had 20C 850s for different times in the future and all of those soundings had surface temps of 75-81 degrees. It appears to be pretty darn near impossible to get 90 degree surface temps with 20C soundings. You would have to a surface elevation of near 0 feet ASL and nowhere in Nebraska is the elevation that low. Go click around on soundings for Nebraska when you see 850s at 20C and you won't see any forecast surface temps close to 90 degrees.

[WxGuest]

Since you can't look at soundings on the Euro and can't see surface maps for the temperatures on the Euro, I took a look at the GFS and took a look at soundings for areas that had 20C 850s for different times in the future and all of those soundings had surface temps of 75-81 degrees. It appears to be pretty darn near impossible to get 90 degree surface temps with 20C soundings. You would have to a surface elevation of near 0 feet ASL and nowhere in Nebraska is the elevation that low. Go click around on soundings for Nebraska when you see 850s at 20C and you won't see any forecast surface temps close to 90 degrees.

You have no idea what you're talking about.

 

Chicago had temps in the upper 80s with 14-16 C 850s during the March 2012 heatwave. With sufficient mixing, 90 is definitely attainable with 20 C.

 

Also, the GFS is notorious for having a severe cold bias with 2m temps, especially early in the spring.

[gosaints]

You have no idea what you're talking about.

 

Chicago had temps in the upper 80s with 14-16 C 850s during the March 2012 heatwave. With sufficient mixing, 90 is definitely attainable with 20 C.

Especially with low soil moisture...

[WxGuest]

Especially with low soil moisture...

yup, very true.

 

best not to listen to the clown NEJeremy.

[jaster220]

@ WxGuest

 

..Smile, you're on candid camera. We know who you are..

[NEJeremy]

yup, very true.

 

best not to listen to the clown NEJeremy.

ha ha good one! I'll be waiting for the 90s as you called it.

new guy comes to a forum and starts calling people names. Must be 10 years old!

[jaster220]

Spoiler alert! He's only new "here"

[Tom]

yup, very true.

 

best not to listen to the clown NEJeremy.

No need for that in here. Our members respect one another.

[gosaints]

ha ha good one! I'll be waiting for the 90s as you called it.

new guy comes to a forum and starts calling people names. Must be 10 years old!

I am by no means saying you will hit 90 on saying they can happpen with 20 at 850.

[NEJeremy]

I am by no means saying you will hit 90 on saying they can happpen with 20 at 850.

I'm sure it has happened before as it did in Chicago years ago. You mentioned dry soil and it hasn't been that dry in Nebraska over the winter. GFS is cold, but something tells me though it's not 15-20 degrees off either. I clicked on numerous soundings in westerm Nebraska when it showed 20C 850s in the middle of March and it had temps in the low 70s at the surface. Here in Omaha during our last warm stretch, we had 850s of 16-18C and we were only 72-75 degrees. Elevation is important. Chicago is about 600 ft above sea level. Omaha is at about 1100 ft ASL. By the time you get to western Nebraska where the 20C 850s were showing up, elevation is nearing 3000 ft so now you have not a lot of space for the temp to warm drastically from 20C(68F) at 850 to the surface.

[clintbeed1993]

yup, very true.

 

best not to listen to the clown NEJeremy.

 

I have issued you a warning for that garbage.  Don't show up and act like a tough guy or you will be gone from this forum faster than you can swallow..

[WxGuest]

It's called constructive criticism, not "abusive" behavior.

 

I wasn't acting like a "tough guy" either. If anything, it was just some banter.

[Tom]

Lets see how the temps actual shake out this month.  Here was the last run for the CFSv2...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.201703.gif

[Accu35mike]

Lets see how the temps actual shake out this month. Here was the last run for the CFSv2...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.201703.gif

I believe y'all might have a better chance in March with wintry weather then us southern.As for me spring is knocking.

[St Paul Storm]

Certainly not in this sub forum, but I noticed that there are Blizzard Warnings for the higher terrain on the big island of Hawaii. You don't see that everyday, but add it to the list of things you've seen this winter that you typically don't see.

[Niko]

March came in like a lamb, but will turn into a Lion later today as colder air arrives and snowshowers overspread the area with teens for overnight lows tonight. Brrrrr. No accumulations expected, but, maybe an inch at the most.

[Tom]

I'm sure there are a few on here who have asked to see charts on which models perform better in the Week 2 forecasts.  Here is one of them showing a score card from Jan 15th - Feb 15th...GEFS did a good job in January but then EPS took over...

 

 

 

[gosaints]

I'm sure there are a few on here who have asked to see charts on which models perform better in the Week 2 forecasts.  Here is one of them showing a score card from Jan 15th - Feb 15th...GEFS did a good job in January but then EPS took over...

 

 

 

Ya the GEFS GFS have been laughably bad in the long range the last month.  GFS cant help but bring the cold only to lose it

[Tom]

Ya the GEFS GFS have been laughably bad in the long range the last month.  GFS cant help but bring the cold only to lose it

Wonder how it performs in March.  GEFS/GFS are bringing back a colder look and it seems the EPS is also but I can't tell past Day 10.

[Tom]

Go figure, as we flip into March, Chicago now has snow in the forecast for tomorrow with 1-2".

[gosaints]

Wonder how it performs in March. GEFS/GFS are bringing back a colder look and it seems the EPS is also but I can't tell past Day 10.

Eps has a positive AO/nao through.the end of the run...gfs on an island.

[Tony]

Go figure, as we flip into March, Chicago now has snow in the forecast for tomorrow with 1-2".

Tom, I truely doubt we will see any accumulation from this...maybe some flakes flying but that's about it.

[gimmesnow]

Go figure, as we flip into March, Chicago now has snow in the forecast for tomorrow with 1-2".

Ground seems too warm and wet for me. They were forecasting 1-3 today for me and they revised it down to less than an inch. The flakes will fall but I doubt a lot of it will stick.

[Tom]

Tom, I truely doubt we will see any accumulation from this...maybe some flakes flying but that's about it.

 

Ground seems too warm and wet for me. They were forecasting 1-3 today for me and they revised it down to less than an inch. The flakes will fall but I doubt a lot of it will stick.

 

Esp with it being a day time event with marginal temps....

[St Paul Storm]

Snow from this morning is all but melted. March sun and warm ground temps doing work.

[indianajohn]

this is the first time in recorded history that Chicago has not had a trace of snow in January and February

[Tom]

this is the first time in recorded history that Chicago has not had a trace of snow in January and February

I think it was for less than 1" of snow for both months. We had 0.4" in Jan or something around there.

[NEJeremy]

Certainly not in this sub forum, but I noticed that there are Blizzard Warnings for the higher terrain on the big island of Hawaii. You don't see that everyday, but add it to the list of things you've seen this winter that you typically don't see.

it seems like they have had a pretty active winter this year out in Hawaii strangely enough. I know they see snow up on the upper peaks out there, but I've seen it several times this season which seems more than I remember it happening before.

[NEJeremy]

I think it was for less than 1" of snow for both months. We had 0.4" in Jan or something around there.

I keep forgetting how bad it has been in Chicago this season. We've had it bad out here, but it's been just as bad if not worse that way with both January and February not having really anything!

[clintbeed1993]

I keep forgetting how bad it has been in Chicago this season. We've had it bad out here, but it's been just as bad if not worse that way with both January and February not having really anything!

 

Atleast they got a good December.  I believe they are right at or slightly above our season total even with the last 2 months.  That's so depressing.

[Accu35mike]

Oh - and please send more people from the South our way. We could use a few more people on the Gulf or in Dixie.

will do lol

[Accu35mike]

Currently 79 degrees

[jlp]

You're not going to see snow again until December. Sorry!

 

And don't worry, the GFS isn't the only model showing an anomalous warm pattern.

Received 3" of snow yesterday, still waiting on the 80 degree weather you claim is coming. Do you have a time frame to back your prediction?

[james1976]

[Tom]

Chicago had less than 1" total for jan-feb???

Yup!  I saw some decent snow fall rates yesterday as I was clipped by the defo band from the last system but it didn't last to long.  It was very windy and at times the rates were surprisingly good.  This morning I'm seeing more snow shower activity.

[hlcater]

Tbh, I am all for warmer weather and maybe even more severe outbreaks. Not necessarily here, but south. This year definitely has a 2012 ring to it, and I would assume severe is gonna follow suit. We're on a good pace so far, but a-la 2012 it will probably slow down may-June. Which is unfortunate, given that is prime time for us.

[Niko]

A cold day today with a white ground. Received about 0.5" of snowfall. Currently @ 28F and dropping down to 12 by morning.

[St Paul Storm]

60s back in the point for Sunday and Monday. MPX says 70s possible in SW MN.

 

25F and bright blue skies right now though.

[Tom]

More severe wx next Monday for the same areas who just experienced some this week???

 

[Tom]

A band of snow is forecast to develop over night and streak down from Minny to Indy.  More like a nuisance snow but it may impact the record books.

 

From snow to severe weather????  Monday night still looking like the severe threat is there...trending a bit west...