November 2017 Observations and Discussion

[Snowlover76]

Man your not kidding the pink shirt defense gave up 54 points to Minnesota!

Mike Riley is worse than Bill Callahan

[james1976]

NE is getting precip right now

[jaster220]

Dang, that's sound like a heatwave...

Sure does! Coming our way too tho normal high is still 50F for today. 49F for Monday.

17 & 18F were my lows in Marshall the past 2 nights. Did a two hour heat spike to 33F from 2 to 4 pm today, lol. Actually didn't mind the cold with it being calm by autumn stds. Kinda glad this system went the split flow route as it gave me a perfect Saturday to move leafs, close the gardens, and generally get the place 90% ready for winter and snow! The sudden leaf drop made for dry leafs for a change so that was a perk. Normally by the time I get to them on a weekend, they've been rained on and matted down adding to the chore. Oh, and NO LAWN MOVING REQUIRED! Finally that stuff quit growing. Hardy Norway Maples to my west still have half their leafs tho, so I'm not totally done. Was hoping to get lucky with enough rain and SE wind Sunday, some more would drop but not on my place. Ofc there's 2 systems looming with SW and W winds this week so I'm surely going to get whatever survives til then.

[Niko]

Sure does! Coming our way too tho normal high is still 50F for today. 49F for Monday.

17 & 18F were my lows in Marshall the past 2 nights. Did a two hour heat spike to 33F from 2 to 4 pm today, lol. Actually didn't mind the cold with it being calm by autumn stds. Kinda glad this system went the split flow route as it gave me a perfect Saturday to move leafs, close the gardens, and generally get the place 90% ready for winter and snow! The sudden leaf drop made for dry leafs for a change so that was a perk. Normally by the time I get to them on a weekend, they've been rained on and matted down adding to the chore. Oh, and NO LAWN MOVING REQUIRED! Finally that stuff quit growing. Hardy Norway Maples to my west still have half their leafs tho, so I'm not totally done. Was hoping to get lucky with enough rain and SE wind Sunday, some more would drop but not on my place. Ofc there's 2 systems looming with SW and W winds this week so I'm surely going to get whatever survives til then.

Yup..my normal high and low is 50/36. So, if temps reach average, then, bring out the Bermuda shorts and tank tops :lol:

[Niko]

Inclement weather coming for later tanite and into tomorrow, but no biggie. A snow to mix to rain. Roads could become a little slippery.  Temps remain BA all day with 30s for highs.

[james1976]

Few flakes comin down here!

[jaster220]

Over the last 4 runs of the GEFS focused on Saturday evening, the low center has remained amazingly consistent, with the trend being lower by about 6 mb

 

 

[NEJeremy]

Can’t wait for the 50s and 60s next week. Will feel wonderful after the cold of last week. Thinking I might put up the Christmas lights before it gets too cold again!

[GDR]

Looks like a heavy rain maker for some around the 18th

[jaster220]

Most of the Meso models want to give me a little snow Sunday, and with today's high temp failing by 3 deg's my first measurable snow may just happen. There was still a hint of Thursday nights dusting on my deck where the garage was shadowing it.

 

RGEM's been the most generous

 

 

[Minny_Weather]

We got mist the entire day here. Enough mist to be measurable.

[OKwx2k4]

I like the trend over SW TX in those maps also.

[OKwx2k4]

Want to see what the southern low trends to here over the next few days. Looking really interesting. This is the wintry storm I've been thinking about. Especially if the models are running 10 degrees too warm at that range.

 

[jaster220]

I like the trend over SW TX in those maps also.

Tail end of the GEFS on the 26th has a low forming in SECO and then moves southeast from that position. Will be interesting to see where it goes after that?

[St Paul Storm]

Gosh between the huskers and weather it's sure been a long fall.

At least all of the fans that came up last night from Nebraska got to see some snow. They were all walking around town wondering what the white stuff was.

[St Paul Storm]

Dang, that's sound like a heatwave...

I raked some leaves in short sleeves. Made it up to 45.

[Niko]

Currently cloudy and cold (32F).....feels very raw outside and smells like snow.

[Niko]

I raked some leaves in short sleeves. Made it up to 45.

That must have felt great.

[Tom]

I was woken up by sleet pellets hitting my sky light earlier this morning.  Still getting some from time to time.  It's interesting to see a somewhat of a defo band signature evolving with this wave over E IA/N IL.  Similarly, the Oct 10th/11th system also had a distinct defo band and produced a lot of heavy rain.

[Tom]

Geeze, both the 00z/06z GFS are trying to spin up a 969mb storm over N MI this weekend!  Talk about a Powerhouse storm in the making and every single run is showing a very strong storm.  00z Euro also gets it down into the low 970's but does so as it crosses into Ontario.  Should be a fun week trying to see how this storm evolves.

 

00z EPS has slowed this system down a little bit and also showing more bundling of the SLP over N WI/N MI.  Models may be digesting better blocking.

 

 

[jaster220]

I was woken up by sleet pellets hitting my sky light earlier this morning.  Still getting some from time to time.  It's interesting to see a somewhat of a defo band signature evolving with this wave over E IA/N IL.  Similarly, the Oct 10th/11th system also had a distinct defo band and produced a lot of heavy rain.

Thought I might get the sleet hitting my window as well, but per NWS the very light rate of Precip was hurting the wet-bulbing process, keeping the droplets from reaching the ground in frozen form. Temp bumped to 33F as the moisture reached us. This the typical split flow nonsense we're known for in lame winters. Thankfully this should not be the dominant theme going forward. And, in the dead of winter ofc, this is at least a mix or ZR

[jaster220]

"00z EPS has slowed this system down a little bit and also showing more bundling of the SLP over N WI/N MI. Models may be digesting better blocking."

 

That blocking HP I think is being forced futher SW by that other bomb storm down stream in eastern CAN. It's not classic confluence but something similar I guess?

[Minny_Weather]

I love the part of the model runs where we're on the Western edge of everything (cold and precip) so we get the scraps. That's the fun part that resulted in us getting 7.5" all last year. Except last year we were on the Southern edge of everything.

[Tom]

Last week, around this time, the EPS was suggesting a mid month "pullback".  At times, some runs had 3 or more days of AN temps near the Midwest.  It is looking more likely that we are only going to get a 1 day pullback on Wednesday, before it goes back BN on Thursday, with a brief spike in temps on Fri before BN temps lock back in.  Sign of the times???  I think so.  Until I see something different, this should be the theme going forward.  Those father out west in the Plains/South stand a better chance at seeing a highly variable pattern.

 

Thought I might get the sleet hitting my window as well, but per NWS the very light rate of Precip was hurting the wet-bulbing process, keeping the droplets from reaching the ground in frozen form. Temp bumped to 33F as the moisture reached us. This the typical split flow nonsense we're known for in lame winters. Thankfully this should not be the dominant theme going forward. And, in the dead of winter ofc, this is at least a mix or ZR

I would have to disagree and this will probably be a decent 3-6" event around here.  Models spitting out some decent qpf from a weak wave.  RPM paints .40-.50 over N IL.  Neat looking defo band signature evolving from this wave.  Gosh, even the weak systems end up becoming little surprises!

[Tom]

Are you guys in E IA getting any frozen precip?

[bud2380]

Just plain old cold rain here.

[Tom]

Just plain old cold rain here.

Thanks.  Typical cold, early Nov stratiform rain/mix system.  Just enough to dampen things up and remind you winter is around the corner. 

[Tom]

"00z EPS has slowed this system down a little bit and also showing more bundling of the SLP over N WI/N MI. Models may be digesting better blocking."

 

That blocking HP I think is being forced futher SW by that other bomb storm down stream in eastern CAN. It's not classic confluence but something similar I guess?

I noticed that to yesterday when the models were seeing a stronger tracking through Ontario this Wed/Thu period which pumps up the ridging across E Canada.  You know whats funny, the NAVGEM model started seeing the stronger storm across Ontario over the last couple days.  Interestingly, it's showing a noticeable shift south with the following weekends system.

[jaster220]

"Geeze, both the 00z/06z GFS are trying to spin up a 969mb storm over N MI this weekend! Talk about a Powerhouse storm in the making and every single run is showing a very strong storm. 00z Euro also gets it down into the low 970's but does so as it crosses into Ontario."

 

I'd say vs the October bomb, this one has a good chance of being stronger because there's deeper cold to work with, which is the key ingredient for the classic powerhouse storms like 11-16-89.

[Niko]

Cloudy currently w temps at 34F and frozen precip just to my south heading towards my area eventually.

[jaster220]

"I would have to disagree and this will probably be a decent 3-6" event around here. Models spitting out some decent qpf from a weak wave. RPM paints .40-.50 over N IL. Neat looking defo band signature evolving from this wave. Gosh, even the weak systems end up becoming little surprises!"

 

Tbh, I'd not had time to look at any models this morning when I posted that. I'm glad to hear that's the case. It would be very nice trend in winter like you say to get a weaker split system to give high-end WWA snows. My post was more in regards to these borderline temps, very typical of a NINO or Nino-like season. But, in a cold dominant season, you're spot-on it would a nice little event.

[Tom]

"I would have to disagree and this will probably be a decent 3-6" event around here. Models spitting out some decent qpf from a weak wave. RPM paints .40-.50 over N IL. Neat looking defo band signature evolving from this wave. Gosh, even the weak systems end up becoming little surprises!"

 

Tbh, I'd not had time to look at any models this morning when I posted that. I'm glad to hear that's the case. It would be very nice trend in winter like you say to get a weaker split system to give high-end WWA snows. My post was more in regards to these borderline temps, very typical of a NINO or Nino-like season. But, in a cold dominant season, you're spot-on it would a nice little event.

Right on brotha!

[Niko]

I was woken up by sleet pellets hitting my sky light earlier this morning.  Still getting some from time to time.  It's interesting to see a somewhat of a defo band signature evolving with this wave over E IA/N IL.  Similarly, the Oct 10th/11th system also had a distinct defo band and produced a lot of heavy rain.

Is your area forecasted to get a mix today or going to all snow. Mine is snow, to mix, to eventually all rain, but ofc, no accumulations.

[Niko]

Noticed that a couple of rain events next week will be occurring and then, turning colder for Turkey week.

[Tom]

In other news, the sun has been spotless for 11 days.  I think this is the longest stretch this year of being blank.  If anyone has a link to a site where we can see the calendar days of when the sun was blank that would be helpful.  

 

Is your area forecasted to get a mix today or going to all snow. Mine is snow, to mix, to eventually all rain, but ofc, no accumulations.

To warm over here.  Some spots farther W/NW of here are supposed to mix in some snow but that's about it.

[Niko]

In other news, the sun has been spotless for 11 days.  I think this is the longest stretch this year of being blank.  If anyone has a link to a site where we can see the calendar days of when the sun was blank that would be helpful.  

 

To warm over here.  Some spots farther W/NW of here are supposed to mix in some snow but that's about it.

Any new speculations on the Thanksgiving storm? Curious to see if a thread will be made for that time period.

[Tom]

Here's another example of the 30-day (ish) harmonic cycle.  Back on Oct 18th-23rd, we had the Hudson Bay vortex retrograde westward toward AK which you can see from the GEPS ensembles below.  In turn, it developed a big ridge across the GL's region for a couple days with the lack of a stronger Greenland Block and a -AO.  Take a notice on the GEPS around the HR 60 range and you will see the storm system that tracks across Saskatchewan/Manitoba.  Remember the Saskatchewan screamer that lambasted that area with a historic wind storm???  The pattern is cycling and now we are about to head towards that period later this week into the weekend with a powerhouse GL's storm system.  This time, given the seasonal shifts of the jet, more blocking, the storm is cycling again, but shifting farther south.

 

During the aforementioned period above, we did not have the Bearing Sea ridge in October so there will be obvious effects down stream over N.A this go around.  I'm expecting to see a strong signal for a major trough across our sub forum during Thanksgiving week.  It may go to the extreme that the 00z Euro Control is suggesting where MSP gets down subzero for Turkey Day evening.

 

Take a look at the 00z GEFS run below and it, to, is showing the retrograding Hudson Bay vortex towards AK and then spilling into the GOA where in turn pumps the west coast ridge like it did last month.  We all know how cold it got to close out October.  Will it do the same this month???  Folks, winter is about to lock and rock!

[Tom]

Any new speculations on the Thanksgiving storm? Curious to see if a thread will be made for that time period.

I'm debating to start a thread for next weekends storm system...lol, lets not get ahead of ourselves for Thanksgiving week!  Although, there is a hybrid clipper-like system that week that is showing up on the ensembles for our region.  

[jaster220]

At Tom

 

I started a thread for this weekend's storm but don't know if I have rights to pin it??

[Tom]

At Tom

 

I started a thread for this weekend's storm but don't know if I have rights to pin it??

I'll pin it for ya...thanks!