When I see the overnight 00z EPS do this...you can see it may be seeing the colder trend in the Week 2 period....
Michael Clark at BAMwx had tweeted how horrible the EPS has been in reading cold signals this autumn; constantly in catch-up mode - not a good tool for this current upper air pattern. Peeps need to stop freaking about every warm EPS or CFS run..seriously.
Back to this week(end). It's only mid-November, a month known (here at least) for a lack of measurable snows. As I've posted, the 11-15/16 1989 bliz was really unique for SWMI - a rare and awesome event not repeated in almost 30 yrs now. And while initial models showed this next system to phase better, the further south track is what we want for our winter tbh.
I'm quite confident that were it January, we'd be looking at back-to-back nice snow systems and stacking some serious flakes.
EDIT: Reviewing some historical data, 77% of the last (18) Nov's have brought Marshall 3" or less total snowfall. So, the vast majority of seasons winter doesn't show up until Dec. Often after the 20th. Any season having most days with snow cover before that date, I would consider an early starter. 2013 for example started on the 8th, and last year started about the same time but ofc fizzled as quickly as it got going.
Edited by jaster220, 15 November 2017 - 06:00 AM.