Will A Major El Nino Spell Doom For Next Winter In The NW?

[snow_wizard]

I hope it fails.    Neutral has been wonderful... except for this incredibly wet spring.

Yeah...last winter could have easily been pretty satisfying if there had been a few minor tweaks. This spring has really sucked balls though. There have been some runs of nice weather, but overall the weekends have been terrible.

[Jesse]

Yeah...last winter could have easily been pretty satisfying if there had been a few minor tweaks. This spring has really sucked balls though. There have been some runs of nice weather, but overall the weekends have been terrible.

Minor tweaks = more snow in Covington.

 

It was a pretty satisfying winter for most of the region.

[Dan the Weatherman]

Minor tweaks = more snow in Covington.

 

It was a pretty satisfying winter for most of the region.

This winter (and now spring) has been anything but satisfying in CA with record dryness for the last two years. We need a shift in this regime before next winter to relieve the drought down here. We are just about to go into the second multi-day 90 to 100 degree weather pattern with the possibility of strong Santa Ana winds. In Socal Santa Ana winds are fairly rare in May, but strong offshore winds are even rarer.

[Phil]

The huge subsurface warm pool continues to shrivel up and lose its punch. That combined with an extremely unfavorable atmosphere for Nino development projected to last at least another 2 weeks leads me to predict there is some chance there will be no Nino at all during the winter of 2014-15. I'm actually shocked there is any realistic chance this Nino will completely fail. No question we have entered a new regime.

Dude, we're in for a Niño.

 

A second KW was triggered by the WWB in April. While there are no additional WWBs in sight, the fact that the Walker Cell has migrated so far east suggests that more may be on the way. The Solar/QBO harmonic set off the MJO/Breakers back in January, which triggered the initial set of WWBs. The general forcing state is solidly El Niño.

[snow_wizard]

The subsurface warm pool continues to shrink with no new areas of warm subsurface anomalies to replace it. Pretty good cold subsurface anoms west of 180. If we have any Nino by winter it will be weak to moderate at best. I still say a 25% or so chance we will have no Nino by winter.

[Phil]

Agreed. Weak or Moderate El Niño for 2014-15 is what I've been ranting since 2013. The physics back up the idea, too.

 

I was reading AmericanWX as a guest recently, and was astounded at how much they love El Niños over there. That's where the super-niño idea originated from.

[Dan the Weatherman]

Agreed. Weak or Moderate El Niño for 2014-15 is what I've been ranting since 2013. The physics back up the idea, too.

 

I was reading AmericanWX as a guest recently, and was astounded at how much they love El Niños over there. That's where the super-niño idea originated from.

I hope we get an El Nino strong enough to substantially increase the odds of a wet winter in CA and the rest of the SW states. The PDO and AMO have certainly trended in the right direction over the last few months to help favor CA, but there seems to be a lag time of about a year before the atmosphere reacts. In that case if this El Nino fails or is very weak, there is a higher chance of another disastrous dry winter next year, and even more of a chance if somehow it reverted back to a -PDO, +AMO regime.

[richard mann]

-
 .. Difficult to tell certainly at times, with just what capacity you're in fact "delivering" the insights / news that you do. 

 

Agreed. Weak or Moderate El Niño for 2014-15 is what I've been ranting [about. ?] since 2013. The physics back up the idea, too.

I was reading AmericanWX as a guest recently, and was astounded at how much they love El Niños over there. That's where the super-niño idea originated from.

 
.. "ranting" from here above, for one. (Certainly questionable.) 
 
And then, "... where the super-niño originated" .. "from". (?) (Why not just add, "obviously", while you're at it. ? / Certainly no "in fact" attached to what you've suggested here. .. And how 'bout, the "idea" of, a super-niño originated, perhaps, otherwise. ?)

 
— Any of this above making any sense to you. ? .. If not, .. How about expressing your thinking / views more main, a bit more "evenly" and with attached references / supports more initially, before conjecturing on top of, or coloring them up more. Or, is it in fact your intent more, just to stir up whatever controversy, before showing up with your own more "clear" thinking. Ultimately, as it were. (?)

[primetime]

No one makes all the right calls, but Phil deserves kudos for calling for this Nino from 2 years back.  I can say with certainty that he made that call, and I haven't seen anyone else make such a call with that amount of lead time.  I welcome and enjoy the thoughts from Phil and others on the developing Nino. 

[Phil]

Thanks, man. Very much appriciated.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I really think we follow this with a multi-year Nina. Thoughts?

[snow_wizard]

No one makes all the right calls, but Phil deserves kudos for calling for this Nino from 2 years back.  I can say with certainty that he made that call, and I haven't seen anyone else make such a call with that amount of lead time.  I welcome and enjoy the thoughts from Phil and others on the developing Nino. 

 

 

Yup...he does well with ENSO.  I'm above average at calling ENSO, but Phil makes calls from amazingly long lead times.

[snow_wizard]

I really think we follow this with a multi-year Nina. Thoughts?

 

 

IF this ends up being a significant Nino you could be right.  If it gets cut off at the knees probably not.

[snow_wizard]

The SOI is currently flying high and is expected to for at least another week. I'm literally stunned there are still "experts" out there calling for a super Nino. I would like them to show me any major developing El Nino that had indices like this so deep into the year.

[TheBigOne]

Yup...he does well with ENSO.  I'm above average at calling ENSO, but Phil makes calls from amazingly long lead times.

 

Hi Snow!  I'd like some advice.   Didn't Phil said a few Decembers ago there would be decent chances of snow and cold which wounded up being unusually mild with not a single freeze despite upper air patterns trying to behave right?    I remember it was a REALLY weird and very gloomy December.  

[Phil]

Hi Snow! I'd like some advice. Didn't Phil said a few Decembers ago there would be decent chances of snow and cold which wounded up being unusually mild with not a single freeze despite upper air patterns trying to behave right? I remember it was a REALLY weird and very gloomy December.

That was in 2012 (see image below). The pattern turned out almost exactly how I envisioned (it looked very good) but the wave breaker N of the Aleutians failed to puncture the polar night jet associated with the PVA above 100hpa, because the warm equatorial stratosphere put a damper on the tropical forcings.. So as a result we were left with a +EPO, which kept the cold up in Alaska, and the global regime was stagnant until the SSW/PV breakdown that occurred around New Years. That regime flip marked the beginning of the dominance of the -EPO and the associated rebound in the Arctic windfield/icepack.

 

http://catchmypicture.com/RRNwqd.jpg

[snow_wizard]

That was in 2012 (see image below). The pattern turned out almost exactly how I envisioned (it looked very good) but the wave breaker N of the Aleutians failed to puncture the polar night jet associated with the PVA above 100hpa, because the warm equatorial stratosphere put a damper on the tropical forcings.. So as a result we were left with a +EPO, which kept the cold up in Alaska, and the global regime was stagnant until the SSW/PV breakdown that occurred around New Years. That regime flip marked the beginning of the dominance of the -EPO and the associated rebound in the Arctic windfield/icepack.

Just goes to show how we have managed to get screwed out of pretty much every good opportunity during the winter lately. Last winter did ok in some places, but we still failed to achieve a much overdue region wide snowstorm.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just goes to show how we have managed to get screwed out of pretty much every good opportunity during the winter lately. Last winter did ok in some places, but we still failed to achieve a much overdue region wide snowstorm.

 

Last winter was more than okay in some places. Unfortunately my place was not one of those places. Corvallis and Albany had over twice as much snow last winter than I did!

[Black Hole]

I feel pretty strongly el nino is coming, but to what level nobody knows. I think as usual we need to get into mid summer before we get a better idea. I wouldn't mind it if it meant a better monsoon again.

[snow_wizard]

I feel pretty strongly el nino is coming, but to what level nobody knows. I think as usual we need to get into mid summer before we get a better idea. I wouldn't mind it if it meant a better monsoon again.

Actually if this was going to be a major Nino it would be obvious already. The atmosphere continues to favor a more neutral outcome.

[Phil]

Actually if this was going to be a major Nino it would be obvious already. The atmosphere continues to favor a more neutral outcome.

A weak or moderate El Niño is most likely, IMO. Kind of hard to deny it given the steady eastward migration of the Walker Cell since 2012. This was a long time in the making

[primetime]

A weak or moderate El Niño is most likely, IMO. Kind of hard to deny it given the steady eastward migration of the Walker Cell since 2012. This was a long time in the making

 

Phil - I'm familiar with what the Walker Cell is, but what parameter(s) do you use to visualize where it is located?  Omega?  OLR?  200mb wind direction?

[snow_wizard]

Looking more and more likely the Nino will be over before winter.  This graphic clearly shows the progression of the big Kelvin wave and the fact there is no new surge of subsurface warmth to replace the wave currently moving through.  In fact the waters west of 180 at 155 meters are the coldest they've been in a year.

 

[snow_wizard]

Then you have a the decidedly Ninaish MJO wave being shown by most if not all of the major ENSO models.  If this Nino fades by winter this will be the second Nino in a row to behave in a previously unseen manner.  I can't emphasize enough this MJO wave is something one would expect during a full blown La Nina!

 

[Phil]

Looking more and more likely the Nino will be over before winter. This graphic clearly shows the progression of the big Kelvin wave and the fact there is no new surge of subsurface warmth to replace the wave currently moving through. In fact the waters west of 180 at 155 meters are the coldest they've been in a year.

 

I disagree. I'd say there is a 90-95% chance we enter a weak or moderate El Niño for 2014-15..the Walker Cell has been migrating east in the means for over 2 years and is still doing so..setting the stage for the WWBs that occurred in associating with the MJO from Jan-Apr. The large scale NH circulations are already in an El Niño state.

 

However, as I've said for awhile now, the state of the stratosphere alone precludes us from entering a strong El Niño. The recently developed MQI (Multivariate QBO Index), Solar forcings, and the SAO (semi-annual oscillation) forcing on the QBO totally eliminate the possibility of a strong El Niño.

[Deweydog]

I really think we follow this with a multi-year Nina. Thoughts?

 

I hope it snows.

[IbrChris]

Looking at CFSv2 monthly forecasts for DJF 2014-15 (mean of last 30 days of runs: 120 runs) they indicate it may very well be a chilly winter for most of the CONUS...not as cold for the northern tier as this past winter but only mildly above normal while the vast majority of the lower 48 sees below to much below normal temps even areas well north of the typical heavy precip during an El Nino (CA through DSW into southern Plains and SE/FL). Of course whether this pans out is anyone's guess, CFSv2 shows above normal temps through the winter in the PNW.

[snow_wizard]

I disagree. I'd say there is a 90-95% chance we enter a weak or moderate El Niño for 2014-15..the Walker Cell has been migrating east in the means for over 2 years and is still doing so..setting the stage for the WWBs that occurred in associating with the MJO from Jan-Apr. The large scale NH circulations are already in an El Niño state.

 

However, as I've said for awhile now, the state of the stratosphere alone precludes us from entering a strong El Niño. The recently developed MQI (Multivariate QBO Index), Solar forcings, and the SAO (semi-annual oscillation) forcing on the QBO totally eliminate the possibility of a strong El Niño.

It will be interesting to see how this unfolds. It's pretty hard to ignore thing like the AAM, MJO, and subsurface temps west of 180 right now...simply not enthusiastic for a Nino.

[snow_wizard]

I disagree. I'd say there is a 90-95% chance we enter a weak or moderate El Niño for 2014-15..the Walker Cell has been migrating east in the means for over 2 years and is still doing so..setting the stage for the WWBs that occurred in associating with the MJO from Jan-Apr. The large scale NH circulations are already in an El Niño state.

 

However, as I've said for awhile now, the state of the stratosphere alone precludes us from entering a strong El Niño. The recently developed MQI (Multivariate QBO Index), Solar forcings, and the SAO (semi-annual oscillation) forcing on the QBO totally eliminate the possibility of a strong El Niño.

Multivariate QBO index? That is new.

[snow_wizard]

Looking at CFSv2 monthly forecasts for DJF 2014-15 (mean of last 30 days of runs: 120 runs) they indicate it may very well be a chilly winter for most of the CONUS...not as cold for the northern tier as this past winter but only mildly above normal while the vast majority of the lower 48 sees below to much below normal temps even areas well north of the typical heavy precip during an El Nino (CA through DSW into southern Plains and SE/FL). Of course whether this pans out is anyone's guess, CFSv2 shows above normal temps through the winter in the PNW.

The CFS has a full blown Nino also. No question that's the reason it shows us warm.

[snow_wizard]

The SOI is absolutely on fire now with the latest daily reading at 18.1 and the 30 days has been positive for weeks. The alarmists touting a super Nino will surly bust now. It's also becoming increasingly possible we will have no Nino at all by winter. Still a long way to go on that though.

 

EDIT: The latest MJO forecasts are unanimous that the MJO will remain in regions hostile to El Nino for at least the next two weeks. I would hardly believe this if I wasn't seeing it with my own eyes. I dare say I'm getting a little bit stoked about it. At the very least the chances appear good that any El Nino that does happen will not be traditional.

[Phil]

We will almost definitely have a Niño this winter, in my opinion. Nothing terribly strong or noteworthy, though. We may see more WWB action in mid-late June as pressures lower over the CPAC in association with the CCKW and eventual MJO.

 

It's also looking likely that we move into a hefty La Niña for 2015-16.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

We will almost definitely have a Niño this winter, in my opinion. Nothing terribly strong or noteworthy, though. We may see more WWB action in mid-late June as pressures lower over the CPAC in association with the CCKW and eventual MJO.

 

It's also looking likely that we move into a hefty La Niña for 2015-16.

 

I will be happy with anything I get this coming winter, but I do not have high expectations. I agree a strong Nina is very possible the following winter. I would be surprised if we don't see a multi-year Nina event. Tim should probably begin making plans to put his house on the market spring of 2015.

[richard mann]

I will be happy with anything I get this coming winter, but I do not have high expectations. I agree a strong Nina is very possible the following winter. I would be surprised if we don't see a multi-year Nina event.

As I view the idea, Ninas can probably be expected, generally, following any more text-book type of Nino; the type that appears to be setting up currently. - http://theweatherfor...thread/?p=28203

 

— Not necessarily a so-called "Super" either whether Nino, or Nina, but with a more classic type of patterning similar to the one in 1997-98 where looking at the Nino side of the picture.

 

.. This mainly, as I've suggested previously, if within the main "ENSO" thread, with the idea that one main element of this more text-book type of Nino's coming together is—in my view—the whole more, of the main and broader equatorial Pacific's being caused to warm anomalistically (?) / to level significantly above normal in any case, for a short span of years, about 3.  This while the higher latitudes, both generally and more extreme, and both North and South, work to hold on to and consolidate main cold better at the same time. 

 

— With this idea, and with my having in point of fact been suggesting (had been at "Western" previous to the general transition.) for 3 or 4 years at this point, that a more significant period of ENSO activity would (more than likely. ?) begin near to now and continue through to 2017 (2015 to 2017 had been what I'd said more specifically. @), ... I, won't be surprised, to see a certainly generally, significant and noteworthy Nina, following closely after a, generally significant and certainly noteworthy Nino. ....

[snow_wizard]

We will almost definitely have a Niño this winter, in my opinion. Nothing terribly strong or noteworthy, though. We may see more WWB action in mid-late June as pressures lower over the CPAC in association with the CCKW and eventual MJO.

 

It's also looking likely that we move into a hefty La Niña for 2015-16.

I'm getting closer to saying any Nino will be dead by winter. The atmosphere is wildly hostile for any Nino development at the present time and will continue to be so for at least the next two weeks. The subsurface warm pool is running out and there is nothing behind it. Today SOI was +24 and the 30 day has been positive for weeks now. I honestly don't see how anything stronger than a weak Nino could be possible by winter.

[snow_wizard]

This is the most anti El Nino GWO forecast I have seen in ages.  The AAM remains low and spirals gradually lower over the next weeks.  I would bet the MEI is going to drop on the next update or certainly on the update in early July.

 

[snow_wizard]

I will be happy with anything I get this coming winter, but I do not have high expectations. I agree a strong Nina is very possible the following winter. I would be surprised if we don't see a multi-year Nina event. Tim should probably begin making plans to put his house on the market spring of 2015.

 

 

I find it hard to imagine I could end up with 3 consecutive winters with under 5 inches of snow.  That alone gives me some hope.

[Black Hole]

A weak or moderate El Niño is most likely, IMO. Kind of hard to deny it given the steady eastward migration of the Walker Cell since 2012. This was a long time in the making

I agree here. Probably peaks .6 to 1.2 or so for the tri-monthly I think. 

[Phil]

I find it hard to imagine I could end with 3 consecutive winters with under 5 inches of snow. That alone gives me some hope.

Sheesh, that's terrible. Even Atlanta has done better than you.

 

You've gotta move dude.

[snow_wizard]

Sheesh, that's terrible. Even Atlanta has done better than you.

 

 

I'm still bitter about last winter.  The NW has gotten the royal shaft for a long time now.