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November 17-19th Autumn storm with explosive potential for the GL's

GLs bomb
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#151
Niko

Posted 16 November 2017 - 09:26 PM

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In an avg autumn/winter, mid-December climo would still favor NMI to get the storm. We're way outside our normal climo for storms. That finally shifts down our way about Christmas. Truth be known, if I see a tenth of an inch I've prolly beat climo on Nov 18 in Marshall. But, early cold is in vogue this year so it ups the ante for earlier shot at it tho, I'll give ya that :lol:

I have always believed that true Winter conditions usually start after Christmas and last into late Feb.


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#152
Niko

Posted 16 November 2017 - 09:28 PM

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with so many NAM's out there, we need to know if that's the over-hyper 3km or the parent 32km cuz it makes huge diff in this very marginal instance.. ;)

 

Edit - 32km looks to hit IA (and dare I say) SE Neb..

:lol:



#153
Niko

Posted 16 November 2017 - 09:30 PM

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Fixed..

:huh:



#154
LNK_Weather

Posted 16 November 2017 - 09:30 PM

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with so many NAM's out there, we need to know if that's the over-hyper 3km or the parent 32km cuz it makes huge diff in this very marginal instance.. ;)

Edit - 32km looks to hit IA (and dare I say) SE Neb..


I've just started calling it the NAMily.
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2019 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 0 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 1 (Last: 4/10/2019)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 2 (Last: 4/21/2019)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 0 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 1 (Last: 4/10/2019)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 0 (Last: 9/20/2018)

 

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5"), 11/17 (2.6"), 11/25 (3.6"), 12/1-2 (3.0"), 12/28 (2.4"), 1/11-12 (4.9"), 1/22 (3.9"), 2/6-7 (2.2"), 2/15 (2.6"), 2/16-17 (4.2"), 2/19-20 (5.1"), 2/23 (8.0"), 3/2 (2.0"), 3/6-7 (4.3")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 55.5"             Coldest Low: -9*F (1/30, 3/4)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT                Last flake of the season (so far): 4/11/2019 @ 9:44 PM CDT

 


#155
Tom

Posted 17 November 2017 - 03:51 AM

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RPM keeping the accumulating snow chances up north into S WI...

 

DO0_fEpXUAAaz_n.jpg



#156
St Paul Storm

Posted 17 November 2017 - 05:17 AM

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Light rain falling here now associated with the northern piece of energy. Might change over to light snow or flurries tonight but the main precip associated with the southern piece will be well east southeast of here. Good luck to everyone with the precip and wind. Let’s hope the next storm thread is about snow.
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#157
Niko

Posted 17 November 2017 - 06:13 AM

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Rain, Rain, and Rain...still forecasted w this system in SEMI. Now, they are not mentioning at all about any mixing, not even snowshowers on the backend. Wow. Looks like the cold air will not get in on time. By the time it does, all the moisture will have left my area.



#158
LNK_Weather

Posted 17 November 2017 - 06:26 AM

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Precipitation is stupid anyway. It's all dumb and wet.

 

(We're in the process of getting screwed again)


2019 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 0 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 1 (Last: 4/10/2019)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 2 (Last: 4/21/2019)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 0 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 1 (Last: 4/10/2019)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 0 (Last: 9/20/2018)

 

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5"), 11/17 (2.6"), 11/25 (3.6"), 12/1-2 (3.0"), 12/28 (2.4"), 1/11-12 (4.9"), 1/22 (3.9"), 2/6-7 (2.2"), 2/15 (2.6"), 2/16-17 (4.2"), 2/19-20 (5.1"), 2/23 (8.0"), 3/2 (2.0"), 3/6-7 (4.3")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 55.5"             Coldest Low: -9*F (1/30, 3/4)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT                Last flake of the season (so far): 4/11/2019 @ 9:44 PM CDT

 


#159
OKwx2k4

Posted 17 November 2017 - 06:39 AM

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Precipitation is stupid anyway. It's all dumb and wet.

(We're in the process of getting screwed again)

If you're like me, just start planning outdoor activities every day. Ended a six week drought in no time. :) Haven't gotten very many of the things done that I've needed to though the last few weeks.
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#160
jaster220

Posted 17 November 2017 - 07:38 AM

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In an avg autumn/winter, mid-December climo would still favor NMI to get the storm. We're way outside our normal climo for storms. That finally shifts down our way about Christmas. Truth be known, if I see a tenth of an inch I've prolly beat climo on Nov 18 in Marshall. But, early cold is in vogue this year so it ups the ante for earlier shot at it tho, I'll give ya that :lol:

 

 

RPM keeping the accumulating snow chances up north into S WI...

 

DO0_fEpXUAAaz_n.jpg

 

RPM chucks me my 0.1" over in Marshall that I was half-joking about in that prior post  :lol:  This was never a snowstorm for us (this go-around), but the "NAM-fake" was intense there for about 12 hrs, lol  :rolleyes:



#161
james1976

Posted 17 November 2017 - 08:24 AM

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My word, that is a low ceiling out there. Just noticed we got some drizzle goin now too. Been very dreary looking all morning. Temp is only 36. Im having doubts on that forecasted 51. Once again....temps have come up short all week. We haven't hit a forecasted high at all this week.
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#162
Niko

Posted 17 November 2017 - 09:04 AM

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 My forecast calls for Rain Saturday nite going ova to a few rainshowers b4 ending w possibly a passing flurry. :lol: They tend to change it up w different wording every so often. By tonite, they will prolly say rain ending as a few rainshowers or wet snowflakes.  :lol:  :lol:


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#163
Niko

Posted 17 November 2017 - 09:06 AM

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RPM chucks me my 0.1" over in Marshall that I was half-joking about in that prior post  :lol:  This was never a snowstorm for us (this go-around), but the "NAM-fake" was intense there for about 12 hrs, lol  :rolleyes:

A teaser.....neva go w only 1 model run, unless, you have multiple models that are agreeing w one another for a good 2+ days in a row. ;)



#164
jaster220

Posted 17 November 2017 - 09:13 AM

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These guys have gone with some back-end snows as well. They have a pretty good track record in my book, so this will be a good test if they're on their game for winter modes..  ;)

 

Increasing confidence of at least seeing my 1st legit flakes Sat night..

 

 



#165
Niko

Posted 17 November 2017 - 09:18 AM

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Lake effect snowbelts will most likely see snow from that cold air rushing in ova the lakes. Several inches w whiteout conditions and travel delays w reduced visibility can be expected. Who knows, maybe I will see a flake Sat nite into Sun.



#166
jaster220

Posted 17 November 2017 - 10:49 AM

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GGEM one of the strongest (and warmest go figure) models and wants to get this sub-980 just east of SMI. If correct, Niko's place should be quite windy!

 



#167
bud2380

Posted 17 November 2017 - 12:31 PM

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The hi-res NAM continues to be the most aggressive with the cold air on the back side and snow chances.  Again 10:1 shown here for dramatic effect.

 

 

sn10_acc.us_mw.png



#168
LNK_Weather

Posted 17 November 2017 - 01:55 PM

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Looking more and more like we may get our first measurable snow of the season tomorrow. Won't be much but with a rain-cooled ground and considering the fact that Wednesday was the average first measurable snowfall day for here, it'll work.


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2019 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 0 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 1 (Last: 4/10/2019)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 2 (Last: 4/21/2019)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 0 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 1 (Last: 4/10/2019)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 0 (Last: 9/20/2018)

 

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5"), 11/17 (2.6"), 11/25 (3.6"), 12/1-2 (3.0"), 12/28 (2.4"), 1/11-12 (4.9"), 1/22 (3.9"), 2/6-7 (2.2"), 2/15 (2.6"), 2/16-17 (4.2"), 2/19-20 (5.1"), 2/23 (8.0"), 3/2 (2.0"), 3/6-7 (4.3")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 55.5"             Coldest Low: -9*F (1/30, 3/4)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT                Last flake of the season (so far): 4/11/2019 @ 9:44 PM CDT

 


#169
St Paul Storm

Posted 17 November 2017 - 03:12 PM

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Reports of hail in the south burbs of chi town? Impressive stuff for mid November.

#170
VMB443

Posted 17 November 2017 - 03:49 PM

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Pretty strong storm rolling through here - lots of rain - thunder - lightening.
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#171
jaster220

Posted 17 November 2017 - 05:34 PM

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And those dynamics are just from that northern wave. Southern wave still preparing for launch..



If those negative 850's were lurking just a half state further south, this is a whole nother ball game!



#172
LNK_Weather

Posted 17 November 2017 - 06:18 PM

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I think we're a go on snow early in the morning tomorrow. All the models that showed us as 100% rain (HRRR namely) have run up to 6 degrees warmer than what we are at now. HRRR had us at 56 at 8pm, it is 49.5 on my balcony now.Once we get the precip in to cool everything down further, including the grass, I think we can look at accumulating snow here. Omaha I'm not so sure about.


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2019 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 0 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 1 (Last: 4/10/2019)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 2 (Last: 4/21/2019)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 0 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 1 (Last: 4/10/2019)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 0 (Last: 9/20/2018)

 

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5"), 11/17 (2.6"), 11/25 (3.6"), 12/1-2 (3.0"), 12/28 (2.4"), 1/11-12 (4.9"), 1/22 (3.9"), 2/6-7 (2.2"), 2/15 (2.6"), 2/16-17 (4.2"), 2/19-20 (5.1"), 2/23 (8.0"), 3/2 (2.0"), 3/6-7 (4.3")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 55.5"             Coldest Low: -9*F (1/30, 3/4)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT                Last flake of the season (so far): 4/11/2019 @ 9:44 PM CDT

 


#173
Niko

Posted 17 November 2017 - 07:06 PM

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GGEM one of the strongest (and warmest go figure) models and wants to get this sub-980 just east of SMI. If correct, Niko's place should be quite windy!

 

attachicon.gif20171117 12z 42hr GEM 500 mb & MSLP for Nov19.jpg

Yup....winds are expected to be gusting to near 40-45mph w sustain winds 20-25mph.


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#174
jaster220

Posted 17 November 2017 - 07:16 PM

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What beats 33-n-rain? 41-n-heavy rain! Happening here with thunder rumbles as well. Baro @ 29.69 in hg and dropping steadily.
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#175
jaster220

Posted 17 November 2017 - 07:31 PM

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Wow, MI covered with radar returns. 996 mb closed contour in KS at 9 pm and Nebraska radar lighting up! GRR has upped my total qpf from .5-1" to 1-1.5"

#nicetrends



#176
Niko

Posted 17 November 2017 - 08:24 PM

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Temps will rise tomorrow w rain and slowly dropping throughout the afternoon as temps fall into the 30s. Winds will start howling as colder air rushes in.



#177
Niko

Posted 17 November 2017 - 09:00 PM

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Radar is socked w heavy rain coming my way. I am looking at at least 1.50"+.



#178
Niko

Posted 17 November 2017 - 09:03 PM

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Wow, MI covered with radar returns. 996 mb closed contour in KS at 9 pm and Nebraska radar lighting up! GRR has upped my total qpf from .5-1" to 1-1.5"

#nicetrends

attachicon.gifTab2FileL.png

Its going to get wild....possible strong storms ahead of the CF during the pm hours. Snowshowers possible for my area w strong winds. SWMI looking at some snowshowers likely Sat nite. Keep an eye on the radar tomorrow nite Jaster. ;)


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#179
Tom

Posted 18 November 2017 - 05:07 AM

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Rain/Snow mix being reported in E IA/SW WI, hail reports south of Chicago near Peoria/C IL region along the warm front.  Fascinating storm system intensifying as we speak.  CF has pushed its way through the area and winds are becoming gusty.  It's a raw, windy and wet morning out there today.  Kinda gets you that sense this winter is about to come on hard.


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#180
Tom

Posted 18 November 2017 - 05:17 AM

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Madtown, are you getting snow?  Radar looks like it should be mixing in.



#181
Tom

Posted 18 November 2017 - 05:28 AM

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@ Jaster, doesn't this storm kinda remind you of the mid November storm back in 2013?  Radar is really lighting up as SLP deepens.  Perfect track for a "share the wealth" system in future cycles.

 

Skilling talks about how this storm had the "Pineapple Express" connection.  Talk about a juiced up storm!

 

feature11182017.jpg?quality=85&strip=all



#182
Madtown

Posted 18 November 2017 - 05:28 AM

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Fatties flying n sticking
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#183
Tom

Posted 18 November 2017 - 05:36 AM

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Friday night "strikes" over Chitown!

 

DO3zeYGX4AEy_kz.jpg


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#184
jaster220

Posted 18 November 2017 - 05:43 AM

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"@ Jaster, doesn't this storm kinda remind you of the mid November storm back in 2013? Radar is really lighting up as SLP deepens. Perfect track for a "share the wealth" system in future cycles.

Skilling talks about how this storm had the "Pineapple Express" connection. Talk about a juiced up storm!"

Yeah Tom, here's our share the wealth sub-forum track alright! This would be a really sweet set-up when cold is entrenched.

But 1st snowstorm tracking west to east in 2013 was in mid-December. Brought mby about 6" iirc

#185
Tom

Posted 18 November 2017 - 05:53 AM

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"@ Jaster, doesn't this storm kinda remind you of the mid November storm back in 2013? Radar is really lighting up as SLP deepens. Perfect track for a "share the wealth" system in future cycles.

Skilling talks about how this storm had the "Pineapple Express" connection. Talk about a juiced up storm!"

Yeah Tom, here's our share the wealth sub-forum track alright! This would be a really sweet set-up when cold is entrenched.

But 1st snowstorm tracking west to east in 2013 was in mid-December. Brought mby about 6" iirc

Ya, I can't remember TBH.  The only thing I recall which stuck out was how d**n cold it got in mid December and our first sub zero readings were recorded around then.  Prob makes sense we got a fresh snow cover during that period which allowed temps to tank.


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#186
jaster220

Posted 18 November 2017 - 06:01 AM

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If this placement is accurate, the CF has indeed punched further south than expected just last evening



#187
jaster220

Posted 18 November 2017 - 06:03 AM

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At Tom

Yep, had -18F on my car thermo in the countryside that morning and was shocked tbh
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#188
Tom

Posted 18 November 2017 - 06:24 AM

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At Tom

Yep, had -18F on my car thermo in the countryside that morning and was shocked tbh

That was just the beginning of the "Polar Vortex" theme that year.  I'm sure we will see a few visits this season, but I think we may beat some low temps reached that season around here partly due to the numerous HP's (post storm) we have seen this LRC.  Lay down a deep snow pack and allow some massive HP's to slide in across the region and that will be the best scenario to get the coldest temps.


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#189
LNK_Weather

Posted 18 November 2017 - 06:26 AM

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Well, no snow. I'll take the heavy rain we had though.
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2019 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 0 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 1 (Last: 4/10/2019)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 2 (Last: 4/21/2019)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 0 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 1 (Last: 4/10/2019)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 0 (Last: 9/20/2018)

 

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5"), 11/17 (2.6"), 11/25 (3.6"), 12/1-2 (3.0"), 12/28 (2.4"), 1/11-12 (4.9"), 1/22 (3.9"), 2/6-7 (2.2"), 2/15 (2.6"), 2/16-17 (4.2"), 2/19-20 (5.1"), 2/23 (8.0"), 3/2 (2.0"), 3/6-7 (4.3")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 55.5"             Coldest Low: -9*F (1/30, 3/4)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT                Last flake of the season (so far): 4/11/2019 @ 9:44 PM CDT

 


#190
Tom

Posted 18 November 2017 - 06:28 AM

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I think this is going to be the final storm to effect our area for the LRC's first cycle.  Nice way to finish off the first cycle with a bang!


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#191
WBadgersW

Posted 18 November 2017 - 06:40 AM

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First accumulating snow here
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#192
LNK_Weather

Posted 18 November 2017 - 06:43 AM

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Congrats to everyone who gets snow with this! Probably won't be many.
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2019 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 0 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 1 (Last: 4/10/2019)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 2 (Last: 4/21/2019)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 0 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 1 (Last: 4/10/2019)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 0 (Last: 9/20/2018)

 

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5"), 11/17 (2.6"), 11/25 (3.6"), 12/1-2 (3.0"), 12/28 (2.4"), 1/11-12 (4.9"), 1/22 (3.9"), 2/6-7 (2.2"), 2/15 (2.6"), 2/16-17 (4.2"), 2/19-20 (5.1"), 2/23 (8.0"), 3/2 (2.0"), 3/6-7 (4.3")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 55.5"             Coldest Low: -9*F (1/30, 3/4)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT                Last flake of the season (so far): 4/11/2019 @ 9:44 PM CDT

 


#193
Madtown

Posted 18 November 2017 - 06:54 AM

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Ground whitened up here...nice surprise
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#194
Tom

Posted 18 November 2017 - 06:57 AM

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Saw some video of the snow ripping near Dearfield, WI that whitened up the ground.  Glad you guys scored some snow out of this to give you a "taste" of Winter.


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#195
bud2380

Posted 18 November 2017 - 07:00 AM

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No snow here either. Cold air just didn’t filter down in time

#196
VMB443

Posted 18 November 2017 - 07:12 AM

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Loving this first legitimate snowfall of the season! Bring it on!
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#197
Tom

Posted 18 November 2017 - 07:19 AM

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#Awesome....

 

https://twitter.com/...891709633548293



#198
Tom

Posted 18 November 2017 - 07:37 AM

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Atmospheric Fireworks are exploding downstate...hearing reports of major turbulence from pilots flying over the storms farther south.  Torrential rains, vivid lighting...this is what I'm talking about!



#199
Tom

Posted 18 November 2017 - 07:57 AM

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Loving this first legitimate snowfall of the season! Bring it on!

Looks like most of the MKE area is seeing fatty flakes flying.  Congrats!



#200
Hawkeye

Posted 18 November 2017 - 08:43 AM

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It rained a couple tenths, here.  That's all.  No flakes.


season snowfall: 49.9"

 

'17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"