1/10 - 1/11 Possible Severe Frontal Passage with intense snow showers

[FarmerRick]

4-5" on top of icy roads and 40mph wind gusts would be one hell of a mess for a couple days.  #accidentallert

[Money]

Are you done yet? So does twister data.com they are all different. Plot twist, i actually know Kuchera, his name is Evan Kuchera and he works for the Air Force Weather Agency here in Omaha, he's a great guy but im wondering what he thinks about his formula going viral lol

Why are you getting defensive?

[St Paul Storm]

Pick your fave model and run with it.

 

Fox9 in the Cities won’t even throw any totals out there tonight. They said ‘nope, not doing it. We have no idea.’

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Why are you getting defensive?

Just stick with your lovefest with the Minnesota posters here lol. 

[NEJeremy]

Just saw a tweet about this model. German model ICON. Believe it was mentioned before.

[GDR]

2 counties away for me! Keep pushing east please

[Grizzcoat]

OMA-

 

THU 12Z 11-JAN  -6.4    -6.1    1011      92      99    0.20     547     537   
THU 18Z 11-JAN  -9.2   -10.8    1023      80      88    0.18     547     530

 

20 SM W of DSM- 

THU 06Z 11-JAN   5.0     5.5    1003      91      71    0.02     555     553   
THU 12Z 11-JAN  -1.2    -1.1    1007      94      99    0.28     549     543   
THU 18Z 11-JAN -10.4    -6.3    1019      87      93    0.24     548     534

 

LNK-

THU 12Z 11-JAN  -6.0    -8.8    1013      86      99    0.11     546     536   
THU 18Z 11-JAN  -7.9   -11.0    1024      72      76    0.09     548     529

[Grizzcoat]

Just saw a tweet about this model. German model ICON. Believe it was mentioned before.

 

I was just going to mention the German model....

[CentralNebWeather]

I am going to be seeing models when I sleep. No not those. Hope my wife isn’t reading this.

[Madtown]

Grizzly any numbers for Manitowish waters wi

[Grizzcoat]

RST-

 

THU 06Z 11-JAN   1.9     0.7    1003      98      74    0.02     554     551   
THU 12Z 11-JAN  -5.6    -0.9    1007      97      99    0.33     548     542   
THU 18Z 11-JAN -12.4    -8.7    1016      96      99    0.44     543     530   
FRI 00Z 12-JAN -14.0   -15.0    1023      88      87    0.04     541     523  

 

​MSP

-THU 06Z 11-JAN   0.8    -2.1    1004      97      67    0.01     550     547   
THU 12Z 11-JAN  -8.6    -4.6    1011      85      99    0.03     545     536   
THU 18Z 11-JAN -12.7   -13.9    1018      88      98    0.09     541     527   
FRI 00Z 12-JAN -13.6   -17.3    1025      83      90    0.03     537     518 

[Grizzcoat]

Grizzly any numbers for Manitowish waters wi

KPBH [Phillips/Price Cnty]

 

THU 06Z 11-JAN   0.5    -2.3    1002      97      59    0.02     552     550   

THU 12Z 11-JAN  -0.5    -1.9    1005      98      98    0.15     548     544   

THU 18Z 11-JAN  -8.3    -8.2    1011      94      99    0.42     542     534   

FRI 00Z 12-JAN -12.2   -17.4    1019      88      98    0.14     538     524   

FRI 06Z 12-JAN -15.0   -17.9    1025      88      62    0.01     535     516

[Minny_Weather]

Curious as to what headline OAX will pick. WWA, WSW, and Blizzard Warning are all on the table. The idea of OAX issuing a blizzard warning is laughable, so that won't be it. Under normal circumstances, I'd say they will go with a WWA. But the flash freezing rain adds a whole new layer of uncertainty for that, as they are fairly well known for issuing WSWs at the drop of a hat when ice is involved.

 

Hastings is considering a blizzard warning.

[CentralNebWeather]

Hastings is? I hadn’t seen that.

[Minny_Weather]

Hastings is? I hadn’t seen that.

Not for you, for the counties currently in the watch.

 

 

Can not rule out the possibility of

a blizzard warning being needed wherever this heavier snow band

sets up for a longer period of time.

[NEJeremy]

OMA-

 

THU 12Z 11-JAN -6.4 -6.1 1011 92 99 0.20 547 537

THU 18Z 11-JAN -9.2 -10.8 1023 80 88 0.18 547 530

 

20 SM W of DSM-

THU 06Z 11-JAN 5.0 5.5 1003 91 71 0.02 555 553

THU 12Z 11-JAN -1.2 -1.1 1007 94 99 0.28 549 543

THU 18Z 11-JAN -10.4 -6.3 1019 87 93 0.24 548 534

 

LNK-

THU 12Z 11-JAN -6.0 -8.8 1013 86 99 0.11 546 536

THU 18Z 11-JAN -7.9 -11.0 1024 72 76 0.09 548 529

Is this output from the 0Z GFS or which model?

[Grizzcoat]

Local  TV mets didn't even mention 00Z and 18Z data from GFS. If other models come around going to be some surprised people tomorrow morning on both sides of the spectrum.

[Grizzcoat]

Is this output from the 0Z GFS or which model?

 

most recent 00Z GFS

[BLIZZARD09]

I am going to be seeing models when I sleep. No not those. Hope my wife isn’t reading this.

I needed that laugh

[Minny_Weather]

Local  TV mets didn't even mention 00Z and 18Z data from GFS. If other models come around going to be some surprised people tomorrow morning on both sides of the spectrum.

One of the local mets here just refused to show model output altogether and just showed his predictions.

[Grizzcoat]

By model output I mean I could tell (and others here would also since we follow the stuff) I could tell what they were leaning on. EURO it seemed. 

[Madtown]

Love that LNK. Wish mets would go back to that. Put some skin in the game instead of "blaming models"

[NEJeremy]

Curious as to what headline OAX will pick. WWA, WSW, and Blizzard Warning are all on the table. The idea of OAX issuing a blizzard warning is laughable, so that won't be it. Under normal circumstances, I'd say they will go with a WWA. But the flash freezing rain adds a whole new layer of uncertainty for that, as they are fairly well known for issuing WSWs at the drop of a hat when ice is involved.

 

Hastings is considering a blizzard warning.

I wouldn’t be surprised if they don’t make a change overnight. Might wait until late morning after the 12Z runs. Just seems to be enough disagreement/shifting of the models to make the call overnight

[Minny_Weather]

By model output I mean I could tell (and others here would also since we follow the stuff) I could tell what they were leaning on. EURO it seemed. 

Dean Wysocki (the dude I just mentioned) seemed to favor the GFS in his, surprisingly. He's typically fairly Euro biased.

[Minny_Weather]

I wouldn’t be surprised if they don’t make a change overnight. Might wait until late morning after the 12Z runs. Just seems to be enough disagreement/shifting of the models to make the call overnight

Yeah, the band actually seems like it's trying to settle in somewhere. I would wait.

[Jaycee]

D**n GFS. guess we wont know til tomorrow!

[gabel23]

Well; trends aren’t in my favor tonight. I just hope the models are down playing the band of snow, good luck to everyone and here’s to the hope we all score something out of this............

[gabel23]

By model output I mean I could tell (and others here would also since we follow the stuff) I could tell what they were leaning on. EURO it seemed.

 

Grizz, if you could be so kind and post the model output for Columbus, ne and York, ne after the euro tonight I would be much appreciated. If you don’t get it until tomorrow that’s no problem, thanks in advance! Airport code is olu and jyr.

[Grizzcoat]

Grizz, if you could be so kind and post the model output for Columbus, ne and York, ne after the euro tonight I would be much appreciated. If you don’t get it until tomorrow that’s no problem, thanks in advance! Airport code is olu and jyr.

I'll get it. I'am a night owl that works the Graveyard half the time...

[gabel23]

I'll get it. I'am a night owl that works the Graveyard half the time...

Thanks buddy, good luck to you hope you score with this D**n thing!

[NH4NU]

Just for fun I have been tracking each run of the (00,12, and 18z) GFS since the first full/complete run of this storm (00z Sun 7th). I tracked just the snow output for Omaha on each run and this is where we stand:

 

Ordered (Sun-Wed)

 

00z: 8.1" -- 8"-- 4.4" -- 4.5" ---> Average: 6.3"

 

12z: 8.5" -- 5.7" -- 5.2"  ---> Average: 6.5"

 

18z: 5.5" -- 6.5" -- 4.5"  ---> Average: 5.4"

 

 

I am not really trying to prove a point at all with this, but just thought it was an interesting way to look at it's "somewhat" consistency since Sunday. One possible trend you could point out is that it finally seems to be getting a handle on things over past couple runs at the 4-4.5" mark. You can also see that trend in last run of 12z and 18z. 

 

 

 

One more fun fact: Apparently Lincoln hasn't had more than 4" of snow in 707 days!

Edited January 10, 2018 by NH4NU

[Jaycee]

Is OAX hiding something? Check out my point click forecast, maybe theyre siding with the NAM after all?

 

[Minny_Weather]

Is OAX hiding something? Check out my point click forecast, maybe theyre siding with the NAM after all?

 

Screenshot_20180109-230545.png

D****T. When OAX is aggressive it never verifies. We need them to sit on their asses. That's when we get good storms.

[Minny_Weather]

Latest RGEM run is about the same as every other model. Still over us with the band, though. Highest total is about 5" inside the band. Outside of the band isn't too horrible, some may see 3"-4".

[Minny_Weather]

Seriously, every met here is saying Fremont is gonna get the highest amounts. Not one model run for the past couple of days has had them even close to the band. Wtf. OAX seems balls deep in that idea too.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Bill from KETV had his updated RPM model up and had the heaviest band NW of here and the RGEM is always slightly northwest as well. Not sure why your upset about that because if you average it together that would be along the interstate.

[Minny_Weather]

Bill from KETV had his updated RPM model up and had the heaviest band NW of here and the RGEM is always slightly northwest as well. Not sure why your upset about that because if you average it together that would be along the interstate.

I'm not upset about anything. I'm just wondering why they pulled Fremont out of their butts. You can literally pick any city in Eastern Nebraska right now and call that the bullseye and have a chance at being right.

[Madtown]

euro anyone

[Craig-OmahaWX]

euro anyone

Your a little early still lol, doesn't start till 12.

[snowstorm83]

Euro definitely looking southeast. Omaha and Lincoln just get clipped.