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August 2018 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

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#1151
Jesse

Posted 10 August 2018 - 04:17 PM

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18z ensembles are a little improved.



#1152
Front Ranger

Posted 10 August 2018 - 04:18 PM

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Nothing a few PM's won't solve.

 

Shame on you for mentioning something so private in public.


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#1153
Deweydog

Posted 10 August 2018 - 04:19 PM

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Shame on you for mentioning something so private in public.


I'm an attorney. I have no shame.

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#1154
Jesse

Posted 10 August 2018 - 04:20 PM

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I'm an attorney. I have no shame.

 

I haven't sent you a PM in months. That go to is getting a little dated.



#1155
Jesse

Posted 10 August 2018 - 04:41 PM

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I wonder if there has been any other summer in PDX history that has seen three stand alone heatwaves of 6 days or greater?



#1156
Deweydog

Posted 10 August 2018 - 04:45 PM

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I wonder if there has been any other summer in PDX history that has seen three stand alone heatwaves of 6 days or greater?


No.

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#1157
Jesse

Posted 10 August 2018 - 04:47 PM

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No.


Keep it to PM.

#1158
Deweydog

Posted 10 August 2018 - 04:47 PM

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NW'erlies have arrived here.

Bye summer.

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#1159
Jesse

Posted 10 August 2018 - 04:49 PM

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Rough two days coming up. Remember, if you are feeling blue there are people to call who care!

#1160
Deweydog

Posted 10 August 2018 - 04:54 PM

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Rough two days coming up. Remember, if you are feeling blue there are people to call who care!


Haha! Frontal RatbastardSquall!

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#1161
Jesse

Posted 10 August 2018 - 04:58 PM

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Haha! Frontal RatbastardSquall!


Haha! Jesse Jesse Jesse Jesse Jesse Jesse Jesse Jesse Jesse 80s movie reference Jesse Jesse Jesse Jesse Jesse!
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#1162
Deweydog

Posted 10 August 2018 - 05:04 PM

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So much anger and self-centeredness.

We're all in this together, champ! The highest of 500mb heights can't bring us down!

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#1163
MossMan

Posted 10 August 2018 - 05:05 PM

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Smoke gone! Cool breeze has arrived. Temps going downnn.

#1164
Jginmartini

Posted 10 August 2018 - 05:11 PM

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Modest instability for tomorrow afternoon


I need me some instability
Blast of Arctic air please

#1165
Jesse

Posted 10 August 2018 - 05:18 PM

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So much anger and self-centeredness.

We're all in this together, champ! The highest of 500mb heights can't bring us down!


Thanks Matt!



#1166
Jginmartini

Posted 10 August 2018 - 05:24 PM

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Clean air on the way

Attached Files


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Blast of Arctic air please

#1167
TT-SEA

Posted 10 August 2018 - 05:24 PM

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Mt Si golf course on a gorgeous summer evening...

20180810_183008.jpg
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#1168
Jesse

Posted 10 August 2018 - 05:39 PM

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Mt Si golf course on a gorgeous summer evening...

20180810_183008.jpg


😇

#1169
Farmboy

Posted 10 August 2018 - 05:42 PM

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Mt Si golf course on a gorgeous summer evening...

20180810_183008.jpg


Amazing how it's so nice over there. I'm on the Peninsula and it's been cloudy all day, and it just turned breezy in the last couple hours. Really feels like fall...

Heat waves in the summer, Arctic outbreaks in the winter!


#1170
TT-SEA

Posted 10 August 2018 - 05:51 PM

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Amazing how it's so nice over there. I'm on the Peninsula and it's been cloudy all day, and it just turned breezy in the last couple hours. Really feels like fall...


84 and sunny with almost no wind... and now the smoke is gone.

#1171
TigerWoodsLibido

Posted 10 August 2018 - 05:59 PM

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And...the smoke is back. Goddammit!!

Monmouth, Oregon Winter 17-18 Stats:

 

Coldest high: 34 (Dec 24)

Coldest low: 22 (Dec 11 & Feb 23)

Total snowfall: 1"

Last snowfall: February 21-22, 2018

Last accumulating snowfall on roads: March 6, 2017

Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)

Last White Christmas: 2008

 

My Twitter @353jerseys4hope


#1172
Eujunga

Posted 10 August 2018 - 06:00 PM

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Smoky aloft again in Eugene.  The temperature here dropped 20º (from 90º to 70º) between 3 p.m. and 7 p.m.


Tujunga, CA (15 miles N of Downtown L.A.) - Elev. 1,860 ft.

 

Eugene, OR (5 miles SSW) - Elev. 850 ft.


#1173
Phil

Posted 10 August 2018 - 06:06 PM

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Mt Si golf course on a gorgeous summer evening...

20180810_183008.jpg


What’s the brew?
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#1174
TigerWoodsLibido

Posted 10 August 2018 - 06:11 PM

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What’s the brew?


Looks delicious whatever it is.
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Monmouth, Oregon Winter 17-18 Stats:

 

Coldest high: 34 (Dec 24)

Coldest low: 22 (Dec 11 & Feb 23)

Total snowfall: 1"

Last snowfall: February 21-22, 2018

Last accumulating snowfall on roads: March 6, 2017

Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)

Last White Christmas: 2008

 

My Twitter @353jerseys4hope


#1175
Eujunga

Posted 10 August 2018 - 06:13 PM

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Looks like the smoke is coming mostly from the Klondike and Taylor Creek fires in SW Oregon.


Tujunga, CA (15 miles N of Downtown L.A.) - Elev. 1,860 ft.

 

Eugene, OR (5 miles SSW) - Elev. 850 ft.


#1176
TT-SEA

Posted 10 August 2018 - 06:17 PM

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What’s the brew?


Snoqualmie Wildcat IPA... local brew.
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#1177
wx_statman

Posted 10 August 2018 - 06:48 PM

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The average high at PDX over the last four weeks has got to be about the hottest they've ever experienced for a period of that length.

 

Yup, 90.2 for the 30 days ending today. Broke the 1977 record of 89.5 for any 30-day stretch.


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#1178
ShawniganLake

Posted 10 August 2018 - 06:57 PM

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87 for a high today. Looked cloudy all day but it was just your typical smoky PNW summer day. 3 out of the last 4 summers have had pretty notable episodes of wildfire smoke here.
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#1179
Farmboy

Posted 10 August 2018 - 06:57 PM

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Yup, 90.2 for the 30 days ending today. Broke the 1977 record of 89.5 for any 30-day stretch.


I remember someone on here awhile back said records were meant to be broken...

Heat waves in the summer, Arctic outbreaks in the winter!


#1180
MR.SNOWMIZER

Posted 10 August 2018 - 07:00 PM

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Soooo nice to see some cool weather this weekend. F this hot weather.
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We come from the land of the ice and snow.


#1181
ShawniganLake

Posted 10 August 2018 - 07:07 PM

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Amazing how it's so nice over there. I'm on the Peninsula and it's been cloudy all day, and it just turned breezy in the last couple hours. Really feels like fall...

What peninsula? Are you sure that was cloud and not smoke?

#1182
BLI snowman

Posted 10 August 2018 - 07:14 PM

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Yup, 90.2 for the 30 days ending today. Broke the 1977 record of 89.5 for any 30-day stretch.

 

No early fall to save us this year, either.



#1183
TigerWoodsLibido

Posted 10 August 2018 - 07:17 PM

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Western flank of the smoke is right overhead. Would really love it to move off to the east so we can finally have a good starwatching night.

Monmouth, Oregon Winter 17-18 Stats:

 

Coldest high: 34 (Dec 24)

Coldest low: 22 (Dec 11 & Feb 23)

Total snowfall: 1"

Last snowfall: February 21-22, 2018

Last accumulating snowfall on roads: March 6, 2017

Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)

Last White Christmas: 2008

 

My Twitter @353jerseys4hope


#1184
Farmboy

Posted 10 August 2018 - 07:31 PM

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What peninsula? Are you sure that was cloud and not smoke?


Olympic.

Heat waves in the summer, Arctic outbreaks in the winter!


#1185
wx_statman

Posted 10 August 2018 - 07:33 PM

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No early fall to save us this year, either.

 

No epic pattern change this time. Our reward is a continued march to the 90-degree day record, after a token break thrown in....



#1186
Jesse

Posted 10 August 2018 - 07:36 PM

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No epic pattern change this time. Our reward is a continued march to the 90-degree day record, after a token break thrown in....


Considering how things have been since late April it seems like some sort of epic pattern change would be a given over the next several weeks. But maybe that’s not how it works anymore.
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#1187
ShawniganLake

Posted 10 August 2018 - 07:37 PM

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Looks like some all time record highs were set in parts of western Canada today.
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#1188
Jesse

Posted 10 August 2018 - 07:37 PM

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Yup, 90.2 for the 30 days ending today. Broke the 1977 record of 89.5 for any 30-day stretch.


Good info. First 30 day average at 90+ is a pretty big milestone for this climate.
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#1189
MossMan

Posted 10 August 2018 - 07:44 PM

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Soooo nice to see some cool weather this weekend. F this hot weather.

Even though I don’t share your thoughts on this, I am looking forward to more amazing winter pictures from your E. WA place this coming season!

#1190
wx_statman

Posted 10 August 2018 - 07:44 PM

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Considering how things have been since late April it seems like some sort of epic pattern change would be a given over the next several weeks. But maybe that’s not how it works anymore.

 

Over the next several weeks, probably. This pattern will eventually run out of teleconnections/forcings to drive it. That much is a given. I'm pretty sure this latest round was boosted by Hector anyway (poleward venting into that ULL, which then pumped up our ridge), which in turn was boosted by a fortuitously timed burst of MJO activity in the EPAC. You almost need a quirky teleconnection like that to continue a pattern that was already ridiculous before this latest round. Eventually something will line up to not roast us. Eventually....  :lol:


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#1191
WeatherArchive

Posted 10 August 2018 - 07:47 PM

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Considering how things have been since late April it seems like some sort of epic pattern change would be a given over the next several weeks. But maybe that’s not how it works anymore

With the earth's axis tilted slightly the earth wobbles like a top, and will right itself in time barring no more major earthquakes or volcanoes keep it off balance. Fukashima earthquake moved Japan 8 feet west- a major disruption of spin and tilt and there have been several more incidences.  This affects seasonal length and jet streams. 

 

Garbage in the pacific slows currents, pushes them north and south and causes Bernoulli effects when opposing currents are squeezed and produces surface water eddies: The temperature effects of the currents is disrupted.  You can get ridiculously resilient ridges of high air pressure when cooling doesn't happen because the currents are circling,slowing or even stopping.

 

Real global warming is occurring on a schedule,  a thousand year cycle, expect it to be peaking over the next 250 years give or take minus 50.  This global warming cycle has caused the rise and fall of civilizations several times.

 

Then there is record pollution from record population plays a role but is not the cause of the global warming but it does play a role.  Global warming has been worse then it is now but we have 200+ years to match it.



#1192
Jginmartini

Posted 10 August 2018 - 07:50 PM

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Activity begins

Attached Files


Blast of Arctic air please

#1193
Jesse

Posted 10 August 2018 - 07:52 PM

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Over the next several weeks, probably. This pattern will eventually run out of teleconnections/forcings to drive it. That much is a given. I'm pretty sure this latest round was boosted by Hector anyway (poleward venting into that ULL, which then pumped up our ridge), which in turn was boosted by a fortuitously timed burst of MJO activity in the EPAC. You almost need a quirky teleconnection like that to continue a pattern that was already ridiculous before this latest round. Eventually something will line up to not roast us. Eventually.... :lol:


Oh sure, things will cool down at some point. I meant more like a major pattern crash/sustained 500mb anomaly reversal.

Hadn’t really thought too much about the impact of Hector. What do you mean by poleward ventinging into the ULL? It got roided up by the tropical energy which caused it to overstrengthen and cut off?

#1194
wx_statman

Posted 10 August 2018 - 08:10 PM

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Oh sure, things will cool down at some point. I meant more like a major pattern crash/sustained 500mb anomaly reversal.

Hadn’t really thought too much about the impact of Hector. What do you mean by poleward ventinging into the ULL? It got roided up by the tropical energy which caused it to overstrengthen and cut off?

 

I'm not sure if Hector caused the ULL to get cut off, but it did look like the ULL stayed alive and kicking a little more than expected. Hector was passing directly to the south at Cat 4 strength, and maintaining that intensity for a couple days. That's a lot of heat energy being vented directly into the region where the ULL was spinning. I actually saved a screenshot. You can see the inflow into the ULL essentially meeting the outflow from Hector. A weaker ULL, without the presumable infusion of tropical energy, wouldn't have been able to pump up the ridge over our heads the way that it did (via downstream forcing). The pattern may have ended up more transient, much like the models had originally been advertising for this past week. Hard to believe it was supposed to be cool and showery over the last few days, but that was the model consensus not so long ago...

Attached Files


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#1195
dolt

Posted 10 August 2018 - 08:14 PM

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That makes no sense. Doesn't Eugene average like 5 inches a year while Springfield is like 2.5?  Eugene has more NE wind upsloping while Springfield is blocked by the mountains between there and Sweet Home and the most significant snow events are ones with offshore or NE winds with the south valley in the deformation bands.

 

Also, there was a decent swath just south of Monmouth, down to like Junction City and over to Albany that had no snow in any of the events this past winter.

Yes, Eugene averages about 5 inches of snow per year. I have no idea what Springfield averages since I don't believe there are any reliable stats available. Even Eugene's records were spotty for a while.

 

Springfield is a bit higher than Eugene. When a decent amount of snowfall is of the 31-33 degree variety, 100+ feet can make a huge difference.

 

Also, Springfield is closer to the foothills than Eugene. A bit of orographic lift probably contributes, especially once you hit the Thurston area.

 

I only base my conclusions on living here for a few decades. I'd always watch the local news and see the regional snowfall reports. Springfield almost always won out, or it would at least be tied.

 

BTW, I grew up in the hills in South Eugene at 900ft. My best snowfall year was a sweet 36" total. 



#1196
Front Ranger

Posted 10 August 2018 - 08:18 PM

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Over the next several weeks, probably. This pattern will eventually run out of teleconnections/forcings to drive it. That much is a given. I'm pretty sure this latest round was boosted by Hector anyway (poleward venting into that ULL, which then pumped up our ridge), which in turn was boosted by a fortuitously timed burst of MJO activity in the EPAC. You almost need a quirky teleconnection like that to continue a pattern that was already ridiculous before this latest round. Eventually something will line up to not roast us. Eventually....  :lol:

 

All of that indeed came together to probably lead to a warmer outcome than would have happened otherwise, but a good number of analogs pointed to a hot July/August combo anyway heading into the summer.

 

I'll have to check, but I believe most of them turned much cooler in September.


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#1197
wx_statman

Posted 10 August 2018 - 08:27 PM

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All of that indeed came together to probably lead to a warmer outcome than would have happened otherwise, but a good number of analogs pointed to a hot July/August combo anyway heading into the summer.

 

I'll have to check, but I believe most of them turned much cooler in September.

 

As you know, analogs won't tell you about pattern nuances on the subseasonal scale. Way too much chaos in the system for that.  ;)


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#1198
Front Ranger

Posted 10 August 2018 - 08:29 PM

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0z keeps the heat mostly in check until next weekend, when it goes nuts again.

 

Any ideas of PDX hitting triple digits the first half of next week can probably be thrown out at this point.


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#1199
Front Ranger

Posted 10 August 2018 - 08:30 PM

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As you know, analogs won't tell you about pattern nuances on the subseasonal scale. Way too much chaos in the system for that.  ;)

 

Yep. The analogs proved correct, but things ended up on the extreme side thanks to those nuances.


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#1200
seattleweatherguy

Posted 10 August 2018 - 08:30 PM

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Activity begins


How soon will that hit us