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February 2019 Weather in the Pacific Northwest - Part 1

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#1
hawkstwelve

Posted 31 January 2019 - 04:09 PM

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Let us dive into a top-tier, multi-week arctic blast that buries us in endless snow opportunities!

 

 

 


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#2
Deweydog

Posted 31 January 2019 - 04:32 PM

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Second!

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#3
TigerWoodsLibido

Posted 31 January 2019 - 05:18 PM

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Booya!!!!!

Springfield, Oregon cold season 19-20 Stats:

Coldest high: 34 (Nov 30)
Coldest low: 19 (Nov 29)
Days with below freezing temps: 27 (Most recent: Dec 4)
Total snowfall: 0.0"

Last accumulating snowfall (grass): February 27, 2019
Last accumulating snowfall (roads): February 27, 2019
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31F)
Last White Christmas: 1990

Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

 

Personal Stats:

Last accumulating snowfall (grass): February 27, 2019

Last accumulating snowfall (roads): February 27, 2019
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 2008

Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

My Twitter @353jerseys4hope


#4
Omegaraptor

Posted 31 January 2019 - 06:46 PM

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PDX currently -2.09” on rainfall. Rain please!
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No rain here until Hour 258.

#5
Omegaraptor

Posted 31 January 2019 - 09:32 PM

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Looks like we're in for a colder than normal February. Temps are looking to stay low 40s until Valentine's Day.


No rain here until Hour 258.

#6
kokaneekidz

Posted 31 January 2019 - 11:29 PM

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Happy lovers month you snow lovers ;)

#7
Omegaraptor

Posted 31 January 2019 - 11:41 PM

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And already this month is set to start off okay. 0.3” tomorrow and 0.35” on Sunday with several inches of mountain snowpack. Not as good as it could have been but it’s above normal so I’ll take it. Something like 7” is forecasted to fall Sunday night on the ski resorts.
No rain here until Hour 258.

#8
hawkstwelve

Posted 31 January 2019 - 11:41 PM

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06z NAM has started.

Obviously not likely (at all) to bring the trough eastward a little but I have a small, miniscule, tiny amount of hope for something better than the current solutions show.

#9
Frontal Snowsquall

Posted 01 February 2019 - 12:05 AM

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Happy New Month! May this new month be filled with lots of cold temperatures and heavy snow!

happy-new-month-to-my-friend.jpg
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Psalm 148:8 Fire and hail, snow and frost, stormy wind fulfilling his command!


#10
Frontal Snowsquall

Posted 01 February 2019 - 12:09 AM

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The 00z EURO EPS continues to show cold weather sticking around in the medium to long range. Here is what it shows days 8 to 10.

ecmwf-ens_T850a_namer_9.png
ecmwf-ens_T850a_namer_10.png
ecmwf-ens_T850a_namer_11.png
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Psalm 148:8 Fire and hail, snow and frost, stormy wind fulfilling his command!


#11
Frontal Snowsquall

Posted 01 February 2019 - 12:17 AM

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iFred or mods please pin this topic, thanks.

Psalm 148:8 Fire and hail, snow and frost, stormy wind fulfilling his command!


#12
Sounder

Posted 01 February 2019 - 12:22 AM

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06Z NAM is definitely about 6 hours quicker with the cold air into the area. It looks further east to me as well but I'm not one to trust re: model interpretations.



#13
Meatyorologist

Posted 01 February 2019 - 12:32 AM

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06z nam lol



#14
MillCreekMike

Posted 01 February 2019 - 12:32 AM

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NAM!!



#15
Sounder

Posted 01 February 2019 - 12:36 AM

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06Z NAM keeping us weenies from jumping off the ledge for a few more hours! Still borderline but absolutely a big improvement. Snows most of Sunday morning from Seattle north, then the low hugs the coast a bit more afterward. Still too warm though.


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#16
HighlandExperience

Posted 01 February 2019 - 12:39 AM

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06Z NAM keeping us weenies from jumping off the ledge for a few more hours! Still borderline but absolutely a big improvement. Snows most of Sunday morning from Seattle north, then the low hugs the coast a bit more afterward. Still too warm though.


The NAM does look better.

#17
Meatyorologist

Posted 01 February 2019 - 12:41 AM

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06Z NAM keeping us weenies from jumping off the ledge for a few more hours! Still borderline but absolutely a big improvement. Snows most of Sunday morning from Seattle north, then the low hugs the coast a bit more afterward. Still too warm though.

Yeah, low is way too broad for accumulating snow down to sea level. One exception would be with a PSCZ dragging the snow levels down. And wouldn't you know it... The profile is convective with onshore flow! It's not over yet, that's for sure.

 

This thread will be a nightmare in the morning...



#18
Meatyorologist

Posted 01 February 2019 - 12:43 AM

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Icon has officially commenced...



#19
hawkstwelve

Posted 01 February 2019 - 12:44 AM

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Well I'll be d*mned I thought my eyes were just tired but nope, 06z NAM moved a fair amount of notches to the east. I'll take it.
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#20
MossMan

Posted 01 February 2019 - 12:47 AM

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GO NAM! New month! New rules! Slide east baby slide east!! (Just not too Far East)

#21
hawkstwelve

Posted 01 February 2019 - 12:55 AM

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I do like how the 00z GFS ensembles have that long valley look and it stays chilly for a while. 18z showed that as well.

Might be starting to play catch up with the EPS.

Attached Files



#22
Meatyorologist

Posted 01 February 2019 - 01:17 AM

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Icon has it further east as well. What a mess right now.

 

Then again, when are snow events ever easy?



#23
hawkstwelve

Posted 01 February 2019 - 01:28 AM

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Now the ICON. :lol:

If this thing trends back east at the last second even after the Euro caved... Well slap my *** and call me Judy.

#24
TigerWoodsLibido

Posted 01 February 2019 - 01:38 AM

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Hasselhoff drops 6" in Eugene/Springfield  :lol:


Springfield, Oregon cold season 19-20 Stats:

Coldest high: 34 (Nov 30)
Coldest low: 19 (Nov 29)
Days with below freezing temps: 27 (Most recent: Dec 4)
Total snowfall: 0.0"

Last accumulating snowfall (grass): February 27, 2019
Last accumulating snowfall (roads): February 27, 2019
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31F)
Last White Christmas: 1990

Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

 

Personal Stats:

Last accumulating snowfall (grass): February 27, 2019

Last accumulating snowfall (roads): February 27, 2019
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 2008

Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

My Twitter @353jerseys4hope


#25
hawkstwelve

Posted 01 February 2019 - 01:43 AM

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Don't look now...

#26
MillCreekMike

Posted 01 February 2019 - 01:45 AM

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The trend is our friend again.

#27
TigerWoodsLibido

Posted 01 February 2019 - 01:55 AM

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gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_15.png

 

:)


Springfield, Oregon cold season 19-20 Stats:

Coldest high: 34 (Nov 30)
Coldest low: 19 (Nov 29)
Days with below freezing temps: 27 (Most recent: Dec 4)
Total snowfall: 0.0"

Last accumulating snowfall (grass): February 27, 2019
Last accumulating snowfall (roads): February 27, 2019
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31F)
Last White Christmas: 1990

Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

 

Personal Stats:

Last accumulating snowfall (grass): February 27, 2019

Last accumulating snowfall (roads): February 27, 2019
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 2008

Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

My Twitter @353jerseys4hope


#28
hawkstwelve

Posted 01 February 2019 - 01:56 AM

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NAM, ICON, and GFS all moved east with their 06z runs.

 

This looks nice.

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_14.png



#29
hawkstwelve

Posted 01 February 2019 - 02:01 AM

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Much better snow totals, especially from King County north.

 

5veBkOQ.jpg


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#30
hawkstwelve

Posted 01 February 2019 - 02:15 AM

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Nice improvement on temps as well through the week with more snow shown on Thursday night and Friday.

Overall, quite a good GFS run that bucked the trend. 12z runs have a whole new weight on them now.

#31
hawkstwelve

Posted 01 February 2019 - 02:36 AM

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And to round out the 06z runs, FV3 has also shifted a little east.

Not going to stay up for the 06z Euro to see but every other 06z model moved east to varying degree. Unexpected.

#32
El_Nina

Posted 01 February 2019 - 03:43 AM

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First rain in awhile.
I have to screenshot my photos otherwise they post sideways

#33
jcmcgaffey

Posted 01 February 2019 - 04:03 AM

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Weather app just upped the snow totals for Sunday/Monday and a severe weather statement issued for seattle for threat of lowland snow. Has the early jinxing begun?

#34
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 February 2019 - 04:21 AM

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06z was a little better. Definitely not a dramatic improvement, but not bad. ensembles took a big step in the direction towards staying chilly.


Snowfall                                  Precip

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#35
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 February 2019 - 04:25 AM

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FV-3 was a notch chillier too, and very cold for next weekend.


Snowfall                                  Precip

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#36
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 February 2019 - 04:26 AM

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WOW

 

fv3p_T2ma_namer_42.png


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Snowfall                                  Precip

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#37
MossMan

Posted 01 February 2019 - 04:28 AM

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WOW

fv3p_T2ma_namer_42.png

Whatever happens Sunday-next week at least the strong signal is for things to remain cool to cold in the extended.

#38
Cloud

Posted 01 February 2019 - 04:34 AM

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Lol. What a mess... now everything is back in play.
This thread is gonna explode when people wake up Friday morning.

#39
jcmcgaffey

Posted 01 February 2019 - 04:45 AM

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Weather app just upped the snow totals for Sunday/Monday and a severe weather statement issued for seattle for threat of lowland snow. Has the early jinxing begun?

#40
puyallupjon

Posted 01 February 2019 - 05:17 AM

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I always go to my phone app for the most accurate forecast. We’ll be buried in 44° snow.

#41
Frontal Snowsquall

Posted 01 February 2019 - 05:22 AM

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Good morning. It looks like the 6z set of model runs showed good improvements. We're headed into the 4th quarter. Think Cold and Heavy Snow.

Psalm 148:8 Fire and hail, snow and frost, stormy wind fulfilling his command!


#42
Frontal Snowsquall

Posted 01 February 2019 - 05:26 AM

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WOW

fv3p_T2ma_namer_42.png


The EURO/EPS has been hinting at this reload for a while now. February 1995 all over again.

Psalm 148:8 Fire and hail, snow and frost, stormy wind fulfilling his command!


#43
Frontal Snowsquall

Posted 01 February 2019 - 05:40 AM

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The 12z NAM running.....

Psalm 148:8 Fire and hail, snow and frost, stormy wind fulfilling his command!


#44
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 February 2019 - 05:53 AM

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The 12z NAM running.....

 

Prey for Sno.


Snowfall                                  Precip

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#45
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 February 2019 - 05:57 AM

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Chicago ended up below 0 for 52 straight hours. The 4th longest such streak in the cities history and 15 hour longer than the infamous "polar vortex" of 2014.


Snowfall                                  Precip

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#46
Esquimalt

Posted 01 February 2019 - 06:15 AM

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Nam is also suggesting a little further east on the 06Z update. ICON continues to hang in to the chillier solution

#47
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 February 2019 - 06:16 AM

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Finishing up my January stats. Looks like I ended up with about a +1.5 temp anomaly. 16 sub freezing minima, I think I only had 6 sub freezing lows last January.


Snowfall                                  Precip

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#48
Brennan

Posted 01 February 2019 - 06:18 AM

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12z NAM has Bellingham below freezing by 6z Sunday, that's the earliest any model has shown yet. I went to sleep at 8:30pm last night and just woke up at 6... Earliest I've fallen asleep and slept through the night since December 11th 2008......



#49
Esquimalt

Posted 01 February 2019 - 06:22 AM

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12Z NAM update looking further east and north than its 06Z run. Hmmmm
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#50
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 February 2019 - 06:28 AM

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NAM looks slightly East again. 


Snowfall                                  Precip

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill!