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Fall and Winter 2019-20 Predictions and Discussion


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We do realize the Farmer's Almanac forecast is like throwing darts at a board right? 

Things re looking great at this point.  An incredilbe solar min is in progress, ENSO is fine, a nice early season cold snap is the works, among other good signs.  Should be a fun winter.

Cliff Mass gets a lot of heat around here, and I do think he occasionally grinds an axe a little too hard, but I admire how he has had the balls to challenge both the media and "intellectual elite" as

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It would be fun to get the remnants of a hurricane sometime in September to bring over an inch of rain as long as it's in the upper 70s or low 80s. That happened a few years ago with Hurricane Linda. This would hopefully reduce fire danger before the first Santa Ana winds arrive and tropical rain can be refreshing, unlike the cold storms we usually get from the Pacific.

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Due for a dud in the s valley, hasn't been a snowless winter here since 15-16.  Probly some action PDX north tho.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 19-20 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 34 (Nov 30)
  • Coldest low: 20 (Nov 29)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 63 (Most recent: Apr 14)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 1 (Most recent: Nov 30, 2019) *Fewest all-time*
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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West Portland and the Tualatin Valley hasn’t had a good winter since 16-17 so we’re probably due, even though I don’t like using that word. The different pattern in the Arctic and the floundering Niño looks encouraging, although I don’t know how long it will take to get to neutral.

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Looks like the weak Modoki +ENSO is probably around to stay. I’m betting that next winter will probably be garbage for lowland snow, lowland rain, mountain snow.

Doubt it will be that bad.

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Wow...

 

nino34.png

For the first time in months, the ENSO3.4 index dipped down into negative territory. This comes weeks following the emergence of an upwelling oceanic Kelvin wave, which pushed into the far eastern Pacific basin. Note: oceanic kelvin wave activity to continue through Fall 2019.

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For the first time in months, the ENSO3.4 index dipped down into negative territory. This comes weeks following the emergence of an upwelling oceanic Kelvin wave, which pushed into the far eastern Pacific basin. Note: oceanic kelvin wave activity to continue through Fall 2019.

 

 

So much for a strong Nino this year...

Snowfall                                  Precip

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 36.14" 

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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I bet you're all sick of seeing pessimistic posts from me about winter, so I'm going to say something a bit more optimistic.

 

The floundering Niño is more encouraging when you realize that many of the best years for mountain snow are first year Niñas (although some like 71-72 are second year Niñas). Good first year Niñas include 73-74, 98-99, 10-11, and 16-17.

 

The best case scenario is that the Niño continues to die and that we enter -ENSO before winter starts. Hoping that we make up for the dry last two years with a full-on wet winter + high snowpack year like 98-99 or 16-17. Not saying this is probable or even likely, but it is encouraging to think about.

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Significant and repeated Arctic Blasts will freeze over the Hood Canal and Lake Washington. I expect that that the coming solar minimum that we have been promised for the past decade will present its cooling impacts literally overnight.

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The blob was there in 13-14 right? While I don't think it's as significant as it's made out to be, I still think we are looking at a dud at least in the s valley for 19-20.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 19-20 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 34 (Nov 30)
  • Coldest low: 20 (Nov 29)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 63 (Most recent: Apr 14)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 1 (Most recent: Nov 30, 2019) *Fewest all-time*
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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  • 2 weeks later...

Scott Sistek of KOMO Seattle, just posted an update that the current El Nino cycle is dying off and we're headed for a 62% chance of a "neutral" fall and winter in the NW. 

https://komonews.com/weather/scotts-weather-blog/el-nino-on-its-last-legs-gone-before-autumn

 

2de24834-ff0a-44d7-8c33-8df2ab3c0e09-med

Note forecast continue to lean toward a neutral fall and winter too -- though a return of El Nino is not out of the question and holds a decent second place in the betting odds. La Niña appears to be biding its time, through in the typical cycle of these things, we'd probably expect La Niña to return in the winter of 20-21 or 21-22.

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attachicon.gifD4285130-30A5-4041-A58B-CF441F7BF742.png

 

On the other hand, we have this thing in the NE Pacific.

 

That is pretty much a negative PDO so not as bad as it looks.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2019-20 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 3.7"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 3

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 20

Lows 32 or below = 60

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 1

Highs 40 or below = 10

 

 

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No reason to think this winter won't have some good moments at the very least.  Neutral ENSO pretty likely, deep solar min, and the late winter carryover effect we often see.  It's common to see a strong winter following abnormal cold in the late part of the previous season.  We also have the fact this is the second solar cycle to have very low activity.  This is reminiscent of the 1878 to 1914 period which featured 3 consecutive very low solar cycles, but this one has been even deeper.  We could be looking at a really good winter this time.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2019-20 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 3.7"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 3

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 20

Lows 32 or below = 60

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 1

Highs 40 or below = 10

 

 

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attachicon.gifE8585C38-262C-4778-BB77-DFDEE854EEC6.gif

 

attachicon.gifDD9AB8D6-2BBF-46D2-84EA-6D708AD4E282.png

 

A decent amount of upwelling reaches to the 140th meridian now. Much stronger anomalies than what we saw at the start of July.

 

There is a persistent anomalous high pressure cell over the SE Pacific that is going to really stoke the upwelling off the West Coast of South America.  That surface high is pretty much the death of any El Nino potential for next winter.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2019-20 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 3.7"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 3

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 20

Lows 32 or below = 60

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 1

Highs 40 or below = 10

 

 

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  • 2 weeks later...

Windstorm on Thanksgiving leaving hundreds of thousands without power. Sad uncooked Turkey’s and Tofurkey’s everywhere. 43 degree drizzle for Christmas, and finally an epically cold and snowy January! Sunny/warm February, and a show wet spring.

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So far everything I have looked at shows this year being a dead ringer for 1985.  We are talking solar, ENSO, NE Pacific surface pressure, GOA height anomalies, QBO, and very cold February the previous winter.  Almost spooky how close the match is.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2019-20 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 3.7"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 3

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 20

Lows 32 or below = 60

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 1

Highs 40 or below = 10

 

 

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So far everything I have looked at shows this year being a dead ringer for 1985.  We are talking solar, ENSO, NE Pacific surface pressure, GOA height anomalies, QBO, and very cold February the previous winter.  Almost spooky how close the match is.

 

What did 1985 have in store? I can't remember it as being particularly notable (at least for Portland) apart from a November (was it?) cold snap, but what else did it have?

"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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What did 1985 have in store? I can't remember it as being particularly notable (at least for Portland) apart from a November (was it?) cold snap, but what else did it have?

 

Coldest November and December on record at PDX. 

 

1985 was the coldest year on record at SLE...

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 36.14" 

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Coldest November and December on record at PDX. 

 

1985 was the coldest year on record at SLE...

 

Darn, I can't believe I don't hear more about it. Any lowland snow events?

"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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Darn, I can't believe I don't hear more about it. Any lowland snow events?

Portland got snow in November, December, and February in 85-86. About 11” fell at PDX total that winter.

 

11/24/85 was a 25/13 day at PDX. On two separate occasions (11/22-11/25 and 11/28-12/1) the temperature at PDX did not exceed freezing for four straight days. Absolutely incredible for November. Since records started at PDX in 1940, just three years have recorded a subfreezing November high (1955, 1985, 2010). Hillsboro, which is outside of the UHI and has records back to 1930? Just those same three years have had a subfreezing Nov high.

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Darn, I can't believe I don't hear more about it. Any lowland snow events?

Late November 1985 is a regional benchmark for cold and snow that time of year.

 

Also, PDX had their earliest freeze on record early that October, following a cool and relatively active September.

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There was snow and cold in February 86 too, at least in northern regions, not sure how far south it extended

 

EUG had almost 3" on Feb 18, 1986 plus got in on the Nov-Dec action with 7" on Nov 30-Dec 1 and a 26/21 day. They had about a foot for the winter. Looking at the records, it seems this was a very interesting and fun year that spread the wealth regionally, only downside was yet another Jan torch.

 

I would enjoy 29/16 with snow for the Civil War in Autzen.  :D

Springfield, Oregon cold season 19-20 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 34 (Nov 30)
  • Coldest low: 20 (Nov 29)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 63 (Most recent: Apr 14)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 1 (Most recent: Nov 30, 2019) *Fewest all-time*
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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Silver Falls had their earliest sub-30 day on 8/14/1985.

 

A low of 22 on 10/9/85. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 36.14" 

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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1985 winter got started real early in Bozeman as well. 7" of snow fell in September and it dropped down to 16F on the 29th with a 32/21 day on the 28th.

Cold Season 2020/21:

Total snowfall: 1.0"

Highest daily snowfall: 0.0"

Highest snow depth: 0.0"

Coldest high: 45.0º

Coldest low: 27.1º

Number of subzero days: 0

 

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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So far everything I have looked at shows this year being a dead ringer for 1985.  We are talking solar, ENSO, NE Pacific surface pressure, GOA height anomalies, QBO, and very cold February the previous winter.  Almost spooky how close the match is.

 

It's certainly a good match in a number of ways (ENSO being the worst part of the match). 

 

Of course, can't stress enough that the current solar min and overall solar activity, including the past complete cycle, is much lower than it was in the 1980s.

 

With that in mind, weak ENSO and positive QBO, massive blocking and resultant major cold waves for the lower 48 and Europe seems inevitable.

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Low. Solar.

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Looking back, EUG has had 81 years of cold season records to date.  The median snowfall is 1.5 and were it not for the awful 1996-2013 stretch, it would be much higher.  Since 2013 things have gotten back to normal. From Feb 96-Dec 03 there was nothing and there is no snowless stretch even close to that long in the older records. Prior to the mid 90s EUG had a lot more snow on an annual basis.  Look for it to be a nice cold season again with no nino.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 19-20 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 34 (Nov 30)
  • Coldest low: 20 (Nov 29)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 63 (Most recent: Apr 14)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 1 (Most recent: Nov 30, 2019) *Fewest all-time*
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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Darn, I can't believe I don't hear more about it. Any lowland snow events?

 

It was truly extraordinary in the northern half of Western WA.  November 1985 had up to 12 consecutive highs of 32 or lower in the Puget Sound area, two weeks with snow on the ground (in some cases quite a bit longer), and the coldest Nov and Dec combo ever recorded (at least back to 1850).

 

When I say this year is similar in many ways to 1985 I'm not saying November will be the big month.  It might be, but I think the most likely is January with a tie between Dec and Feb for second most likely.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2019-20 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 3.7"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 3

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 20

Lows 32 or below = 60

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 1

Highs 40 or below = 10

 

 

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Can’t stress this enough..what matters more than the value of niño 3.4 (in a weak ENSO situation like this) is the longitudinal SST gradient (IE: the cool EPAC/warm WPAC configuration we’ll have this winter).

 

You can have two years with the exact same niño 3.4 values, but one can have a cool WPAC/retracted warm pool/warmer EPAC, and the other can have a warm WPAC/expanded warm pool/cooler EPAC. We’re trending towards the latter this winter, and years analogous to the former are unlikely to be predictive of the winter pattern.

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Whenever I see the word WPAC it usually means you are predicting sh*t weather for us. Is sh*t your official Fall/Winter forecast Phil? ;)

Lol.

 

I honestly don’t know yet. Probably leaning drier than normal with a weaker jet but that could favor a colder outcome as well.

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It's certainly a good match in a number of ways (ENSO being the worst part of the match). 

 

Of course, can't stress enough that the current solar min and overall solar activity, including the past complete cycle, is much lower than it was in the 1980s.

 

With that in mind, weak ENSO and positive QBO, massive blocking and resultant major cold waves for the lower 48 and Europe seems inevitable.

 

The global temps were quite a bit lower at that point, though. I wouldn't bet on a coming stretch globally that's comparable to what we saw from 1984 to early 1986, especially with the La Nina and volcanic cooling in that stretch.

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Speaking of the mid 1980s, 1984-85 is a generally overlooked winter. 

 

Still managed to be lame for Eugene (sorry Tiger), but north of there it was pretty cold throughout with a bunch of small snow events and it was quite excellent for northern WA and BC. 

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The global temps were quite a bit lower at that point, though. I wouldn't bet on a coming stretch globally that's comparable to what we saw from 1984 to early 1986, especially with the La Nina and volcanic cooling in that stretch.

 

Eh, see 2008-2011. That had La Nina and El Nino, easily warmer temps than mid 1980s and no volcanic cooling. High latitude blocking galore and plenty of major cold outbreaks.

 

Ultimately, major blocking overcomes global temps for periods of time quite easily, at least for regions of the world. We certainly have seen that in recent history.

 

I never said we'd see plummeting global temps this winter, did I?

Low. Solar.

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