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September 2020 Observations and Discussion


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Found out last night that an old friend from college passed away yesterday from COVID. Only 40 years old and no other health issues. Unfortunately, he made the decision to go to the Sturgis bike rally

Just looked outside and every roof, car, etc is covered in a thick layer of frost.

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No more smoke here, and a cool North wind. 61°F.

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21:

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 0.0"            Coldest Low: 30*F (9/9)

 

 

First flake of the season:

 

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Smokey skies outside (in other words, pleasantly clear) evening w temps dropping tanite in the 50s. Looking forward to this chilly airmass coming. Should help change some colors on the leaves.

 

Speaking of smokey: Hopefully people out on the WC are coping "Okay" w these wildfires and those who lost their homes, hopefully, can haven in somewhere safe.

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We got through our practices well today. Cool front came in and turned the wind out of the north. The smoke became a little thicker about 2 pm, but the breeze helped to disperse it some. Now I don’t smell the smoke anymore and we’ve dropped to 60 degrees at 8 pm, heading towards the upper 40’s. All in all, not as bad as advertised in my area for outdoor activities. 

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It was a splendid day yesterday.  Perfect autumn day in my book.  Temps topped out at 84F but the breeze made it feel quite nice.  The CF swept through yesterday evening and I woke up this morning to the sound of the gusty winds blowing the trees in my back yard.  Looking forward to a stretch of cooler days in the low/mid 60's and nippy nights in the 40's!  Dry weather in the foreseeable future with bountiful sunshine.

 

 

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With frost advisories and lows in the 30’s the next 3 nights now is a time to look back. For Friday AM the record low at Grand Rapids is 35 set in 1973. It got down to 36 in 1974. The last time the low was below 40 on September 18th was a low of 38 in 1995. For Saturday AM the record low is 36 set in in 1979, 1929, 1902.  The last time it got below 40 on the 19th was 39 in 2012. On Sunday AM the record low is 33 set in 1956 and the last time it got below 40 was a 38 set in 1991. At this time it is cloudy and 57 here.

 

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Sunny and 57F attm. Absolutely gorgeous. First  "Frost Advisories" of the season is a strong possibility for my area Fri nite and Sat, as temps dip into the mid to upper 30s w clear skies and light winds. Highs not getting outta the 50s both days. Now, that is a strong taste of Autumn knocking on my doorstep.

 

Btw: Would not be surprised, if we break some record low temps w this cold airmass coming. Have to wait and see on that.

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Euro and GFS are VASTLY different for the day 9-10 range. There's a 30 degree difference in highs between the two for next Thursday in Marquette, where I will be.

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21:

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 0.0"            Coldest Low: 30*F (9/9)

 

 

First flake of the season:

 

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46 minutes ago, FAR_Weather said:

Euro and GFS are VASTLY different for the day 9-10 range. There's a 30 degree difference in highs between the two for next Thursday in Marquette, where I will be.

Yeah GFS looks warm the next 2 weeks

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The updated long range guess from the CPC is out and they are thinking that this fall will be warm and for the winter the idea is for a equal chances on the temperature (think near average) but their thinking is for a wetter than average winter season and into the spring. We will have to see how that plays out. With sunny skies and no noticeable smoke the temperature here is 66. 

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1 hour ago, Niko said:

Attm, its 58F under crystal clear skies. Lows tanite in the upper 30s to near 40F. Colder tomorrow nite w frost advisories a good possibility.

34F in my grid for Saturday am. Can't remember the last time we had legit frost concerns this early. Some recent years I thought we'd make it through October without a solid 32F morning. Not a fan of so much dry stretches tho

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 0.0"  Largest Storm: 0" (00/00)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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3 hours ago, jaster220 said:

34F in my grid for Saturday am. Can't remember the last time we had legit frost concerns this early. Some recent years I thought we'd make it through October without a solid 32F morning. Not a fan of so much dry stretches tho

A little too early for this coldsnap, indeed. Tbh, I am looking forward to a nice, Autumnlike rainstorm that last all day, along w windy, chilly conditions. These sunny days are getting old now. I think we had enough of them all Summer long. My extended shows nothing but sunshine. Ugh!

 

 

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https://www.weather.gov/images/dtx/web/First%20Fall%20Freeze.jpg

My area falls in the Oct 11-20 Cat, so way ahead of schedule this year. Wonder if it will be a record early "Frost." .

Jaster, you are in the Oct 1-10 Cat, so still way too soon.

 

Had some time to kill, so I did some research on when the first frost usually occurs on average: Here are some average dates for the first <35 degree temperatures in the fall: Some of these numbers are still b4 Astronomical Autumn, technically speaking, so, you can see this in different ways.

 

Houghton Lake - September 4

Alpena - September 11

Sault Saint Marie - September 21
 
Lansing - September 22
 
Marquette - September 28
 
Flint - September 28
 
Jackson - September 30

Traverse City - September 30

Saginaw - October 1

Kalamazoo - October

Muskegon - October 4

Grand Rapids - October 5

Ann Arbor - October 5
 
Bay City - October 6
 
Detroit - October 12
 
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Rise and Shine!  Happy Friday all...it's a breezy and cool morning here (59F) with a stiff NNE wind off the lake.  Took a look at temps in the region and we are seeing plenty of places up north with freezing temps.  Some record lows are being set in the Northwoods this morning.  The Autumn chill is real this year and many of us are going to start seeing the leaves changing color pretty quick up north and around the GL's.  


Frost Advisories hoisted for parts of N IN and may be expanded into MI for the weekend.  I think there will be patchy frost around here in the outlying areas away from the lake Sat morning.

1.png

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5 minutes ago, Clinton said:

What a beautiful weekend coming my way, I'm thinking outdoor project and a Sat. night bonfire coming.

119708477_3192849287436359_4015512102516

Bon fire for sure this weekend!  Perfect fall-like weekend to venture outdoors and enjoy the pleasant weather.

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I had a low here at my house of 41. It looks like the official low at Grand Rapids will be 40. That will be the coldest low at Grand Rapids since May 13 when the low dropped down to 31. Also I turned on the furnace for the first time since May a few minutes this morning to to take the chill off. Not to mention I have some family over from Florida. At this time it is clear and 42 here.

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Of note for tomorrow morning is that the lows are foretasted to be in the mid 30"s and if that plays out we could be looking at near record lows. The record low here at Grand Rapids for September 19 is 36 set in 1979. 

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Currently 50F under deep blue skies and a few cumulus clouds from time to time. Temps struggling to get outta the 50s today. Lows tanite approaching record lows w the possibility for my first frost. Temps should bottom out in the mid to upper 30s.

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1 hour ago, Clinton said:

What a beautiful weekend coming my way, I'm thinking outdoor project and a Sat. night bonfire coming.

119708477_3192849287436359_4015512102516

Enjoy bud. I always enjoy doing projects outside my house (except the hard ones ).😅

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Thought I mention this, but yesterday I saw something really odd. Well, I was driving up to Romeo (not too far from my Pl) to my uncles house to help him set up his new TV set that he bought. Anyways, to get to the point of this, I happened to see a "Surrey" with 3 people riding it and mind you, there were 2 of them on the street riding along w cars. Now, I see these often in NYC, on 5th Ave and Central Park West, but never thought I see them here in Romeo. Interesting indeed!

Btw: I wonder if the ride was free!

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Here we go...first "Frost" of the season for my area........

Frost Advisory

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
1110 AM EDT Fri Sep 18 2020

MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-190815-
/O.NEW.KDTX.FR.Y.0001.200919T0400Z-200919T1300Z/
Midland-Bay-Huron-Saginaw-Tuscola-Sanilac-Shiawassee-Genesee-
Lapeer-St. Clair-Livingston-Oakland-Macomb-Washtenaw-Wayne-
Lenawee-Monroe-
Including the cities of Midland, Bay City, Bad Axe, Saginaw,
Caro, Sandusky, Owosso, Flint, Lapeer, Port Huron, Howell,
Pontiac, Warren, Ann Arbor, Detroit, Adrian, and Monroe
1110 AM EDT Fri Sep 18 2020

...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Temperatures as low as 34 will result in frost
  formation.

* WHERE...Portions of southeast Michigan.

* WHEN...From midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Frost could kill sensitive outdoor vegetation if left
  uncovered.
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Aaaaand a boring weather period begins. I won't be reporting much since every day and night is going to be the same for the foreseeable future. 67.8*F. 

>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21:

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 0.0"            Coldest Low: 30*F (9/9)

 

 

First flake of the season:

 

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10 minutes ago, FAR_Weather said:

Aaaaand a boring weather period begins. I won't be reporting much since every day and night is going to be the same for the foreseeable future. 67.8*F. 

Check out the tropics....its crazy out there.

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Just now, Niko said:

Check out the tropics....its crazy out there.

Here.

Crazy how we're already to the Greek alphabet.

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21:

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 0.0"            Coldest Low: 30*F (9/9)

 

 

First flake of the season:

 

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Ok, so, this is what is happening out in the tropics. We are already in the "Greek Alphabet."

 

Beta is on the verge of forming in the GOM.

 

Btw: Teddy is a monster hurricane out in the open Atlantic. Also, Wilfred became the earliest-21st named storm on record in the Atlantic basin, beating out Vince, which formed on Oct. 8, 2005,

 

The others are just wandering all ova the pl.

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3 minutes ago, FAR_Weather said:

Here.

Crazy how we're already to the Greek alphabet.

This thing is going for a record breaking "Tropical Season." I am not sure though what the record is.

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1 hour ago, Niko said:

This thing is going for a record breaking "Tropical Season." I am not sure though what the record is.

The farthest we have gotten in the Greek alphabet is zeta, iirc.

>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21:

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 0.0"            Coldest Low: 30*F (9/9)

 

 

First flake of the season:

 

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13 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Yeesh. 9/18 18Z GFS has mid 90s to lower 100s at 1p on Saturday 9/26 across Nebraska and southeast SoDak.

GFS has been a heat weenie model all Summer.

GFS is about as laughable as GEM now. Iirc, even GEM got one storm right last winter.

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21:

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 0.0"            Coldest Low: 30*F (9/9)

 

 

First flake of the season:

 

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Yeah not saying this isn’t a typical late September warm spell, but GFS would have like 106 on days that actually hit like 93.

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2016-17: 7.5"

2017-18: 21.4"

2018-19: 55.5"

2019-20: 17.6"  

 

Average: 25.9"

 

 

 

 

 

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4 minutes ago, snowstorm83 said:

Yeah not saying this isn’t a typical late September warm spell, but GFS would have like 106 on days that actually hit like 93.

Oh, I loved when it forecasted 110 here but it only hit 80. Like, 5 different times

GFS has a dry bias over the heartland and it translates to some absolutely ridiculous temps.

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21:

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 0.0"            Coldest Low: 30*F (9/9)

 

 

First flake of the season:

 

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Not any records that I'm aware of, but the northern 2/3rds of the Mitt chilled this early Friday morning. Saturday morning will be our turn down south. 38F with a 35F DP since midnight here. IF we could slide to 32F by morning, it would be more than 2 weeks earlier than average in this region. Needless to say, trees will start to respond in about 5-7 days. There are already a scattering of maples. September is normally our month of gold. The corn and beans are yellow, and there's a healthy crop of Goldenrod this year. Many trees and grasses get a pale green almost yellowish hue. October is the month of blazing reds and oranges. Ahhh....autumn is a wonderful season here in the Mitt.

 

The Mitt low temps 9-18-20.PNG

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 0.0"  Largest Storm: 0" (00/00)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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5 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Not any records that I'm aware of, but the northern 2/3rds of the Mitt chilled this early Friday morning. Saturday morning will be our turn down south. 38F with a 35F DP since midnight here. IF we could slide to 32F by morning, it would be more than 2 weeks earlier than average in this region. Needless to say, trees will start to respond in about 5-7 days. There are already a scattering of maples. September is normally our month of gold. The corn and beans are yellow, and there's a healthy crop of Goldenrod this year. Many trees and grasses get a pale green almost yellowish hue. October is the month of blazing reds and oranges. Ahhh....autumn is a wonderful season here in the Mitt.

 

The Mitt low temps 9-18-20.PNG

Looks like many records are being broken to our neighbor to the east!.  From what I see, KAZO is at 37F so far establishing a record low.  

 

Edit: Add Battle Creek, MI to the mix...new record low of 36F thus far...

 

It's a chilly and crisp 42F here from one of the local reporting stations.  Calm winds and clear skies will do the trick.  I'm surprised its as chilly as parts of McHenry county where temps there are in the low 40's as well.  I'm looking forward to having a bon fire at my sisters place later today.  Got my space heater out for the 1st time this season warming up my room.  Still not flipping on my furnace...well, at least not yet.

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 The low at both the airport and here at my house of 36 ties the low for any September 19th at Grand Rapids. Here at my house there is frost on the roofs of houses and cars. With some areas of frost on the grass. So while not a killing frost there none the less was some frost. At this time it is sunny and 38 here with some of that frost still visible.

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😄  We did it!  Nice to see Ma Nature still remembers how to send an early cold shot down into the Lakes. This is what '76 must've been like. I was just a sixth grader and can only remember deer hunting in absolutely bone chilling cold, but that was mid-November by that point.

 

KRMY low temp 9-19-20.PNG

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 0.0"  Largest Storm: 0" (00/00)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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3 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

😄  We did it!  Nice to see Ma Nature still remembers how to send an early cold shot down into the Lakes. This is what '76 must've been like. I was just a sixth grader and can only remember deer hunting in absolutely bone chilling cold, but that was mid-November by that point.

 

KRMY low temp 9-19-20.PNG

Congrats amigo!

 

 

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5 minutes ago, Niko said:

Congrats amigo!

 

 

Thanks buddy! Even with windows closed all night, I had to activate the de-chilling devices, aka kitchen gas range burners and a space heater in the Fam Rm. Bedroom was tuck-under-the-covers cold. Best sleeping imho.

Now I'm ready to enjoy round 1 of Indian Summer. I'm sure there will be several cold snaps followed by mild conditions this autumn by the looks of things.

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 0.0"  Largest Storm: 0" (00/00)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Frost was showing its presence this morning as cartops, roofs and grassy surfaces were covered in light frost.

 

Here is my record low temp: The freezing mark this early in the season must also be another record. Have to check on that.

NOAA:

: ***MACOMB COUNTY***
RICM4:  Richmond 4NNW     :0900/ 68 /  32 

Detroit remained in the upper 30s. Still, that is impressive for this early in the season. There were a few upper 20s in the far northern suburbs, (especially north of i-69).

 

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2 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Thanks buddy! Even with windows closed all night, I had to activate the de-chilling devices, aka kitchen gas range burners and a space heater in the Fam Rm. Bedroom was tuck under the covers cold. Best sleeping imho.

Now I'm ready to enjoy round 1 of Indian Summer. I'm sure there will be several cold snaps followed by mild conditions this autumn by the looks of things.

Amigo, I agree 100%. This is by far the best sleeping weather indeed. I had the window cracked just a tad last night and feeling that cold breeze rushing ova me, while tucked under my blanket and at the same time having a heater about 6ft or so away blowing some heat is the best feeling.

Btw: do you recall what type of Winter 2005 was here in MI (especially our part) because, that year was a record breaking "Tropical Season." So, I am thinking that if it was a severe Winter that year, then, it could pose a threat this Winter, in terms of being "Harsh."

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42 minutes ago, Niko said:

Amigo, I agree 100%. This is by far the best sleeping weather indeed. I had the window cracked just a tad last night and feeling that cold breeze rushing ova me, while tucked under my blanket and at the same time having a heater about 6ft or so away blowing some heat is the best feeling.

Btw: do you recall what type of Winter 2005 was here in MI (especially our part) because, that year was a record breaking "Tropical Season." So, I am thinking that if it was a severe Winter that year, then, it could pose a threat this Winter, in terms of being "Harsh."

Tbh, I noted that both 2000-01 and 2005-06 were both classic examples of how a Nina winter can play out around the S. Lakes. Namely, you get an early onset of snowy conditions, or at least a December that would make a good January proud. Then "poof" winter pretty much dies right after the holidays. Not really what I'm dreaming about tbh, but the historicness of 2000 could never be turned down. 52" in Battle Creek that December! Grand Rapids did even better iirc.

Now, 04-05 was a YUGE winter for SEMI with multiple storms and even a legit blizzard. The last legit one for Detroit proper since GHD-1 was a fail (7 or 8"), and the 2015 16.7" Big Dog (GHD-2) didn't have much in the way of wind.

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 0.0"  Largest Storm: 0" (00/00)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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