3/9 - 3/12 Spring Storm

[CentralNebWeather]

12Z GFS.  It looks better for my area than previous GFS runs.

 

[gabel23]

2 hours ago, MSP_Weather said:

Why not a quick death?

Well that too. I’m just going off with how the winter has been for my area!

[Clinton]

Not alot of change with the 12z models

[CentralNebWeather]

Snow has really picked up here.  Large flakes blowing around.

[CentralNebWeather]

Here is the band coming through my area.

 

[Jayhawker85]

30 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Not alot of change with the 12z models

Models are coming into agreement with the GFS that this should be a 1-70 and south snowstorm like it was the previous cycle. Hopefully the NWS can get their map updated to reflect 

[Bryan1117]

23 minutes ago, Jayhawker85 said:

Models are coming into agreement with the GFS that this should be a 1-70 and south snowstorm like it was the previous cycle. Hopefully the NWS can get their map updated to reflect 

That 0.1" modeled for Omaha would just be icing on the cake... honestly it feels like a nightmare that keeps repeating over and over again. 

Guess it could be worse, we could be in Sioux City where they missed the surprise snow on Sunday Night and have a season total of 4.2" (at least we managed to hit double digits- barely).

[winterfreak]

12z EURO definitely dried out.

[CentralNebWeather]

This band over me has basically not moved in 2 hours.  

 

[Bryan1117]

7 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

This band over me has basically not moved in 2 hours.  

 

Enjoy!!! Looks like you are in the lucky spot for now.

[CentralNebWeather]

1 minute ago, Bryan1117 said:

Enjoy!!! Looks like you are in the lucky spot for now.

Question is, will the luck continue tonight?  The heavy band might end up 15 miles south of me looking at the RAP and HRRR.  We'll see.

[snowstorm83]

1 hour ago, someweatherdude said:

Couple of things: 

First, I really do feel for the Nebraska folks.  I definitely know what it's like to be close, but keep missing over and over.  That big year you guys had last year missed us for the most part -- just barely, and over and over.   Just an amazingly bad winter for NE and SD this year.  At least it's almost over now, and you can put it behind you.  

Second, the GFS has been really good this year, at least for KC.  Not perfect by any means.  But I feel like models have caved to it far more often than the other way around this year.  Next year could be totally different.  But I'm going to try to remember to give the GFS the benefit of the doubt next year unless it forces me not to. 

Last year was awesome here while KC struggled. Not that I want to hog all the snow, but it sure is rough constantly getting missed. We’re ready to start fresh next year, this winter was just a practice lol. 

[CentralNebWeather]

Forecasts are upping amounts around here by a couple of inches. My grids now saying possibly 7”. Already have a couple inches with this band that really wasn’t predicted. 

[Clinton]

18z NAM and RDPS 

[CentralNebWeather]

NAM has come back north. It is absolutely ripping out.  Visibility down to 1/3 of a mile. 

[winterfreak]

1 minute ago, CentralNebWeather said:

NAM has come back north. It is absolutely ripping out.  Visibility down to 1/3 of a mile. 

Congrats! Looking at radar, the snow is developing right over you.

[Tom]

7 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

NAM has come back north. It is absolutely ripping out.  Visibility down to 1/3 of a mile. 

Isn’t awesome to have a cold, daytime snowstorm that you can enjoy watching?  Congrats bud!

[mlgamer]

SPC just issued this heavy snow MSD...

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0232.html

SUMMARY...Heavy snow may develop over the next few hours in
   proximity to a sagging arctic front across the central Plains. Snow
   rates of 1+ inch per hour will be possible, potentially impacting
   travel.

   DISCUSSION...As of 2140z, regional radar imagery showed a band of
   snow showers developing across portions of the central Plains.
   Driven by increasing forcing for ascent ahead of a positive-tilt
   shortwave trough over the Great Basin and central Rockies,
   precipitation coverage/intensity is forecast to increase over the
   next few hours. Aloft, strong warm advection is forecast to increase
   late this afternoon and overnight as the low-level jet increase
   across the Plains in response to the approaching trough. This along
   with strengthening frontogenesis and some symmetric instability
   release will likely support a narrow band, or bands, of moderate to
   heavy snow through parts of eastern CO and the NE/KS border region.
   Hi-res ensemble guidance agrees and suggests fairly high
   probabilities of 1 to 2 inch per hour snow rates developing within
   some of these convectively augmented bands this evening and
   overnight. While most model guidance suggests the greatest potential
   for heavy snow will occur after 02z, current radar trends suggests
   some moderate to heavy snow may develop slightly earlier closer to
   23-00z. Heavy snow will likely result in quick accumulations and
   travel problems, especially under the stronger bands later tonight.

[CentralNebWeather]

16 minutes ago, winterfreak said:

Congrats! Looking at radar, the snow is developing right over you.

For about 5 hours now. 

[snowstorm83]

37 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

NAM has come back north. It is absolutely ripping out.  Visibility down to 1/3 of a mile. 

Glad to hear that, hopefully that translates well over this way

[CentralNebWeather]

28 minutes ago, mlgamer said:

SPC just issued this heavy snow MSD...

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0232.html

SUMMARY...Heavy snow may develop over the next few hours in
   proximity to a sagging arctic front across the central Plains. Snow
   rates of 1+ inch per hour will be possible, potentially impacting
   travel.

   DISCUSSION...As of 2140z, regional radar imagery showed a band of
   snow showers developing across portions of the central Plains.
   Driven by increasing forcing for ascent ahead of a positive-tilt
   shortwave trough over the Great Basin and central Rockies,
   precipitation coverage/intensity is forecast to increase over the
   next few hours. Aloft, strong warm advection is forecast to increase
   late this afternoon and overnight as the low-level jet increase
   across the Plains in response to the approaching trough. This along
   with strengthening frontogenesis and some symmetric instability
   release will likely support a narrow band, or bands, of moderate to
   heavy snow through parts of eastern CO and the NE/KS border region.
   Hi-res ensemble guidance agrees and suggests fairly high
   probabilities of 1 to 2 inch per hour snow rates developing within
   some of these convectively augmented bands this evening and
   overnight. While most model guidance suggests the greatest potential
   for heavy snow will occur after 02z, current radar trends suggests
   some moderate to heavy snow may develop slightly earlier closer to
   23-00z. Heavy snow will likely result in quick accumulations and
   travel problems, especially under the stronger bands later tonight.

Right over me. Interesting 

[Clinton]

1 hour ago, CentralNebWeather said:

NAM has come back north. It is absolutely ripping out.  Visibility down to 1/3 of a mile. 

Awesome, this turned into a great storm for you!

[jaster220]

Congrats to you Midwest Peeps getting this snowstorm, and kudos to Tom for making a call that there would be some out that way. Not everyone (OMA) is getting slammed, but at least it's not another shut-out for those west of the Mississippi.

[OmahaSnowFan]

I'm kinda surprised Omaha was kept in the ww advisory given the likelihood of less than 1" of snowfall. Probably did for continuity, but I'm sure plenty of people will wake up tomorrow morning surprised to see we have nothing on the ground!

[CentralNebWeather]

23z HRRR. Snow wants to really pile up in South Central Nebraska and North Central Kansas. 

[snowstorm83]

18 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

23z HRRR. Snow wants to really pile up in South Central Nebraska and North Central Kansas. 

Big yikes for Lincoln. 

[Bryan1117]

Yep, it looks like we will get absolutely nothing in Omaha and Lincoln from this system. Unseasonably cold air with no snow is just stupid and makes me hate this dud of a Winter that much more.

[OmahaSnowFan]

[Madtown]

ouch

[Bellona]

2 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

No snow this far north but I will get to experience something I never have before: double-digit negative temperatures! Friday night's low is forecasted for -1F with wind chills in the teens below zero. Sounds... cold!

It'll be..cool..heh heh, the first time. Soon enough you'll learn to dread it lol

[Clinton]

Interesting how similar the HRRR and Euro are and how similar the SREF is to the GFS.  Either way I-70 snowstorm still looks good.

 

SREF at 10:1

[snowstorm83]

54 minutes ago, Bryan1117 said:

Yep, it looks like we will get absolutely nothing in Omaha and Lincoln from this system. Unseasonably cold air with no snow is just stupid and makes me hate this dud of a Winter that much more.

Just another evening of dry, cold, gusty winds like many have been this year 

[CentralNebWeather]

Just now, snowstorm83 said:

Just another evening of dry, cold, gusty winds like many have been this year 

That is terrible for you guys. Another heavy snow band coming through here. Winter wonderland. Haven’t said that this year. 

[OmahaSnowFan]

2 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

That is terrible for you guys. Another heavy snow band coming through here. Winter wonderland. Haven’t said that this year. 

18Z GFS showed a nice storm next weekend, so maybe we'll get a big one yet. Although after the spring weather next week, it'll be okay if it doesn't happen.

[snowstorm83]

2 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

No snow this far north but I will get to experience something I never have before: double-digit negative temperatures! Friday night's low is forecasted for -1F with wind chills in the teens below zero. Sounds... cold!

You arrived a little late but there will be plenty of that Dec-Feb next year  I moved to Nebraska 5 years ago and never experienced a below zero air temp until then. Now I know if my nose hairs instantly freeze outside, it’s probably below zero.

[Phil]

Could be an interesting weekend out this way with the cyclone bombing out into the 970mb range.

Haven’t had a rain-to-snow transition in a strong cyclone here since the middle 2000s. Enhanced risk for damaging winds already highlighted in the HWO.

[CentralNebWeather]

Looks like every school from I 80 and south is closed tomorrow. Our district among others are on Spring Break so no school anyway. University of Nebraska at Kearney is closed tomorrow. My alma mater rarely closes so this is something. Roads are horrendous. 

[Minny_Weather]

OAX's hopium is showing. 

[snowstorm83]

I guess the main timing was supposed to be midnight-6 am but even 2-4” for Lincoln seems like a stretch given the terrible model trends and radar looking like crap.

[Minny_Weather]

RDPS is the only mesoscale still holding out on plowable snow in Lincoln. RDPS is also not a good model.