3/9 - 3/12 Spring Storm

[Grizzcoat]

09Z SREF (SREF performed very well with last system, destroyed other guidance) with a big jump N and E from 03Z

03Z -

09Z-

[Clinton]

6z Euro still rather weak and further north than the GFS

[CentralNebWeather]

36 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

09Z SREF (SREF performed very well with last system, destroyed other guidance) with a big jump N and E from 03Z

03Z -

09Z-

NWS Hastings Disco mentioned a possible slight shift north.  We'll see which model is correct.

but the most recent 00Z EPS (ECMWF Ensemble Mean) has
come back north again just a hair so we might be starting to
narrow in on the expected snow band location.

[CentralNebWeather]

19 minutes ago, Clinton said:

6z Euro still rather weak and further north than the GFS

Going to be a tough call for local NWS offices for sure.

[CentralNebWeather]

 

[CentralNebWeather]

 

[CentralNebWeather]

12Z NWS Blend of Models

[Clinton]

52 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Going to be a tough call for local NWS offices for sure.

All year it's been like this, no agreement even right up to the event.

[winterfreak]

NAM north. NE may finally get a decent storm. Bring in spring down here.

[CentralNebWeather]

12Z NAM has come north.

[CentralNebWeather]

12Z 3km NAM has also come north.  This only goes to 60 hours.

[Clinton]

FV3 looks to be in agreement with the NAM

[CentralNebWeather]

12Z HRW WRF-NSSL.  This is only through 48 hours, snow is ongoing.

[CentralNebWeather]

2 minutes ago, Clinton said:

FV3 looks to be in agreement with the NAM

Looks very similar.

[CentralNebWeather]

Models were north, then went south, now coming back north.  The event is tomorrow into Thursday, so you would think there would be a consensus with this evening's models.

[OmahaSnowFan]

12Z GFS sticking to it's guns. Was the first to go south and then all the other models followed it.

[Jayhawker85]

3 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

12Z GFS sticking to it's guns. Was the first to go south and then all the other models followed it.

The next 24 hours will be if the other models follow the GFS or if the GFS will cave to the more northern track. The GFS has been pretty good within 48 hours the last 5 storms we had in the kc area 

[GDR]

The gfs has sucked around here the past couple of storms so we shall see.

[Clinton]

12z GFS, CMC and GEFS

 

[IMoveALot_Weather]

Eastern Nebraskans are jumping off the bridge too early.

[CentralNebWeather]

8 minutes ago, Clinton said:

12z GFS, CMC and GEFS

 

Interesting.  The shorter term models have mostly come north, and these models have remained south.  Will want to see what the Euro does, as NWS Hastings had mentioned a north bump in their morning disco.  By later tonight, the shorter term models are what we should be looking at anyway, north or south.

[jcwxguy]

I'm my experience, the short term models have a north bias in their long range

[Clinton]

29 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Interesting.  The shorter term models have mostly come north, and these models have remained south.  Will want to see what the Euro does, as NWS Hastings had mentioned a north bump in their morning disco.  By later tonight, the shorter term models are what we should be looking at anyway, north or south.

I hope it goes north I just need a little bit of moisture you guys need the moisture bad and I'm ready for some warmer weather and thunderstorms.

[CentralNebWeather]

12 minutes ago, Clinton said:

I hope it goes north I just need a little bit of moisture you guys need the moisture bad and I'm ready for some warmer weather and thunderstorms.

Very nice of you to say.

[Jayhawker85]

53 minutes ago, Clinton said:

12z GFS, CMC and GEFS

 

 Bring out the snow blowers!

[james1976]

33 minutes ago, Clinton said:

I hope it goes north I just need a little bit of moisture you guys need the moisture bad and I'm ready for some warmer weather and thunderstorms.

I'm with ya. I'm ready for spring too. These few warm teases we've had plus lack of snowfall have got me thinking spring and t-storms.

[Mr Marine Layer]

Just now, james1976 said:

I'm with ya. I'm ready for spring too. These few warm teases we've had plus lack of snowfall have got me thinking spring and t-storms.

Spring is tornado season.

[CentralNebWeather]

12Z Euro.  About the same location, just getting weaker by the run.

 

[CentralNebWeather]

For what it's worth, the 15Z SREF model is north from the 09Z run which was north of 03Z.  Just getting done with lunch, so can't post any maps for awhile.

[Grizzcoat]

I got it-- SREF looking like an I-80  and South special-

Newest run-15z

09Z -

[bud2380]

8 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

I got it-- SREF looking like an I-80  and South special-

Newest run-15z

09Z -

That is way way north of all other guidance.  I expect a drastic shift south on its next run. 

[Grizzcoat]

1 minute ago, bud2380 said:

That is way way north of all other guidance.  I expect a drastic shift south on its next run. 

I would agree most times other than SREF nailed last event pretty good as an over achiever compared to other guidance. Likely too far north, but time will tell.

[CentralNebWeather]

27 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

I got it-- SREF looking like an I-80  and South special-

Newest run-15z

09Z -

Thanks for posting.

[CentralNebWeather]

15Z RAP

 

[CentralNebWeather]

18z HRRR

 

[CentralNebWeather]

18z NWS Blend

[CentralNebWeather]

18z NAM. Another slight bump north. Hello Lincoln and Omaha. 

[The Snowman]

On 3/6/2022 at 9:38 PM, The Snowman said:

I don't know, I'm feeling unusually good about this one for Omaha. Gut feeling, nothing based on data or whatnot. We will see.

Clearly I need a gut check.

Not the best sign when I'm forced to cling to the NAM & hi-res peanut gallery for hopes of >4" of snow, but gosh darn it that's what I'll do!

[CentralNebWeather]

18z 3km NAM. Maybe a very slight shift south. 

[Grizzcoat]

^^ maybe for NEB. But in Iowa -- N and E shift continues.  Tis the season for a North shift to occur more and more- just dry air that needs to be overcome. 2 weeks from now- this would be in C to N.MN.

[snowstorm83]

LNK is sitting pretty if you look at the short range models and ignore the globals. It's actually surprising how the NAM, RAP, and HRRR seem to be in agreement. 

[CentralNebWeather]

3 minutes ago, snowstorm83 said:

LNK is sitting pretty if you look at the short range models and ignore the globals. It's actually surprising how the NAM, RAP, and HRRR seem to be in agreement. 

Almost exact placement. I’d feel better if global came north. It is like the big dogs vs. the little guys.

[Tony]

NAM has been steadfast with its track for most of its model runs so you have to give it some credence. Even gives us farther north/east some decent snows.

[jcwxguy]

Where I'm supposed to work Thursday. If they get half the max, I won't be able to work

[Clinton]

Watches coming out

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Moderate to Heavy snow possible. Total snow
  accumulations of 3 to 8 inches possible.

* WHERE...Portions of east central and northeast Kansas and
  central, north central, northeast, northwest and west central
  Missouri.

* WHEN...From Wednesday evening through late Thursday night.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

[CentralNebWeather]

 

[Clinton]

2 minutes ago, someweatherdude said:

For KC, the global models have performed better than the hi res models this year.  I can remember specifically being very upset during the early February snows here when the hi-res models had KC getting hammered up almost until the storm started, and then the heaviest stuff went south of us.  The global models were on target with that. 

With our biggest snow, on 2/17, at 48 hours out, the EURO was way too far south, the NAM and HRR were too far north, the Canadians were south and the GFS was about right.  Interestingly, the ICON did a great job with that storm, accurately predicting the sharp cutoff of snow between KC and St. Joe.  UKIE did well too for the same reason.  

Having said all of that, you never know which model's going to be right for any given storm at any given location.

Well we know if it's going to snow it will happen on a Thursday.  Seems like every snow of any significance has hit on a Thursday this winter.

[Clinton]

18z ICON with some hefty amount between Topeka and KC

[CentralNebWeather]

18z GFS doesn’t want to come north. Well I guess we just watch the radar tomorrow and Thursday and see what model or models performs best. 

[winterfreak]

The differences in placement in modeling is astounding this close to an event.