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3/9 - 3/12 Spring Storm


Tom
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09Z SREF (SREF performed very well with last system, destroyed other guidance) with a big jump N and E from 03Z

03Z -

sn10_acc-mean-imp.us_c.png09Z-sn10_acc-mean-imp.us_c.png

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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36 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

09Z SREF (SREF performed very well with last system, destroyed other guidance) with a big jump N and E from 03Z

03Z -

sn10_acc-mean-imp.us_c.png09Z-sn10_acc-mean-imp.us_c.png

NWS Hastings Disco mentioned a possible slight shift north.  We'll see which model is correct.

but the most recent 00Z EPS (ECMWF Ensemble Mean) has
come back north again just a hair so we might be starting to
narrow in on the expected snow band location.
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3 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

12Z GFS sticking to it's guns. Was the first to go south and then all the other models followed it.

The next 24 hours will be if the other models follow the GFS or if the GFS will cave to the more northern track. The GFS has been pretty good within 48 hours the last 5 storms we had in the kc area 

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Eastern Nebraskans are jumping off the bridge too early.

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>1" snowfalls at KFAR in 2021-22: 11/11-12 (1.0"), 11/13 (1.8"), 12/2 (1.0"), 12/4-5 (4.8"), 12/21 (3.1"), 12/25 (3.2"), 12/26-27 (8.6"), 12/28 (2.9"), 1/4-5 (3.2"), 1/14 (2.7"), 1/22 (2.8"),

 

Total 2021-22 snowfall at KFAR: 51.7"                                                  Coldest Minimum: -28*F (1/1, 1/7)

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8 minutes ago, Clinton said:

12z GFS, CMC and GEFS

snku_acc.us_c.png

sn10_acc-mean-imp.us_c.png

snku_acc.us_c.png

 

Interesting.  The shorter term models have mostly come north, and these models have remained south.  Will want to see what the Euro does, as NWS Hastings had mentioned a north bump in their morning disco.  By later tonight, the shorter term models are what we should be looking at anyway, north or south.

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29 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Interesting.  The shorter term models have mostly come north, and these models have remained south.  Will want to see what the Euro does, as NWS Hastings had mentioned a north bump in their morning disco.  By later tonight, the shorter term models are what we should be looking at anyway, north or south.

I hope it goes north I just need a little bit of moisture you guys need the moisture bad and I'm ready for some warmer weather and thunderstorms.

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33 minutes ago, Clinton said:

I hope it goes north I just need a little bit of moisture you guys need the moisture bad and I'm ready for some warmer weather and thunderstorms.

I'm with ya. I'm ready for spring too. These few warm teases we've had plus lack of snowfall have got me thinking spring and t-storms.

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I got it-- SREF looking like an I-80  and South special-

Newest run-15z

sn10_acc-mean-imp.us_c.png

09Z -sn10_acc-mean-imp.us_c.png

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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8 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

I got it-- SREF looking like an I-80  and South special-

Newest run-15z

sn10_acc-mean-imp.us_c.png

09Z -sn10_acc-mean-imp.us_c.png

That is way way north of all other guidance.  I expect a drastic shift south on its next run. 

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Season Snowfall: 0.00"

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1 minute ago, bud2380 said:

That is way way north of all other guidance.  I expect a drastic shift south on its next run. 

I would agree most times other than SREF nailed last event pretty good as an over achiever compared to other guidance. Likely too far north, but time will tell.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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On 3/6/2022 at 9:38 PM, The Snowman said:

I don't know, I'm feeling unusually good about this one for Omaha. Gut feeling, nothing based on data or whatnot. We will see.

Clearly I need a gut check.

Not the best sign when I'm forced to cling to the NAM & hi-res peanut gallery for hopes of >4" of snow, but gosh darn it that's what I'll do!

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^^ maybe for NEB. But in Iowa -- N and E shift continues.  Tis the season for a North shift to occur more and more- just dry air that needs to be overcome. 2 weeks from now- this would be in C to N.MN.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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LNK is sitting pretty if you look at the short range models and ignore the globals. It's actually surprising how the NAM, RAP, and HRRR seem to be in agreement. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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3 minutes ago, snowstorm83 said:

LNK is sitting pretty if you look at the short range models and ignore the globals. It's actually surprising how the NAM, RAP, and HRRR seem to be in agreement. 

Almost exact placement. I’d feel better if global came north. It is like the big dogs vs. the little guys. 😂

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Watches coming out

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Moderate to Heavy snow possible. Total snow
  accumulations of 3 to 8 inches possible.

* WHERE...Portions of east central and northeast Kansas and
  central, north central, northeast, northwest and west central
  Missouri.

* WHEN...From Wednesday evening through late Thursday night.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.
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For KC, the global models have performed better than the hi res models this year.  I can remember specifically being very upset during the early February snows here when the hi-res models had KC getting hammered up almost until the storm started, and then the heaviest stuff went south of us.  The global models were on target with that. 

With our biggest snow, on 2/17, at 48 hours out, the EURO was way too far south, the NAM and HRR were too far north, the Canadians were south and the GFS was about right.  Interestingly, the ICON did a great job with that storm, accurately predicting the sharp cutoff of snow between KC and St. Joe.  UKIE did well too for the same reason.  

Having said all of that, you never know which model's going to be right for any given storm at any given location.

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2 minutes ago, someweatherdude said:

For KC, the global models have performed better than the hi res models this year.  I can remember specifically being very upset during the early February snows here when the hi-res models had KC getting hammered up almost until the storm started, and then the heaviest stuff went south of us.  The global models were on target with that. 

With our biggest snow, on 2/17, at 48 hours out, the EURO was way too far south, the NAM and HRR were too far north, the Canadians were south and the GFS was about right.  Interestingly, the ICON did a great job with that storm, accurately predicting the sharp cutoff of snow between KC and St. Joe.  UKIE did well too for the same reason.  

Having said all of that, you never know which model's going to be right for any given storm at any given location.

Well we know if it's going to snow it will happen on a Thursday.  Seems like every snow of any significance has hit on a Thursday this winter.

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