BLI snowman Posted June 30, 2022 Report Share Posted June 30, 2022 20 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Wow. Another fantastic GFS run. And to think Phil said this was going to be the ridgier half of the month!! 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 30, 2022 Author Report Share Posted June 30, 2022 13 minutes ago, BLI snowman said: And to think Phil said this was going to be the ridgier half of the month!! He is always too slow. We had our 3-day ridging period. That is what he saw coming. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 30, 2022 Author Report Share Posted June 30, 2022 2 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: GFS ensembles look fantastic for goldilocks weather. No sign of significant rain down here, per usual for July. Could be our nicest summer in years while people 200 miles north whine and roll around in the mud because its not 105. Who wants 105 degrees? A summer full days like today would probably make everyone happy. You think today is perfection. I think today is perfection. So where is the disconnect? 1 1 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted June 30, 2022 Report Share Posted June 30, 2022 5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: He is always too slow. We had our 3-day ridging period. That is what he saw coming. Well our next annual 21st century window of DEATH opens up at the very end of July and then lasts through most of August. So you won't really have to wait too long. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted June 30, 2022 Report Share Posted June 30, 2022 Just now, TT-SEA said: Who wants 105 degrees? A summer full days like today would probably make everyone happy. You think today is perfection. I think today is perfection. So where is the disconnect? I'd think mostly newcomers complain when its not scorching. I noticed yesterday was 84/35 at KLMT. What I would do to have lows like that out here! 1 1 Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 16 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 30, 2022 Author Report Share Posted June 30, 2022 1 minute ago, Timmy Supercell said: I'd think mostly newcomers complain when its not scorching. I noticed yesterday was 84/35 at KLMT. What I would do to have lows like that out here! This is not exactly true either. I heard more complaining from my co-workers who were born and raised in the Seattle area than anyone else back in April and May and into the first half of June. They know its not supposed to be that bad. 1 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted June 30, 2022 Report Share Posted June 30, 2022 5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Who wants 105 degrees? A summer full days like today would probably make everyone happy. You think today is perfection. I think today is perfection. So where is the disconnect? Been much slower to burn off down here today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted June 30, 2022 Report Share Posted June 30, 2022 At this point last year there was already fires going. Gonna be a great day across the region. 65 here. 7 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted June 30, 2022 Report Share Posted June 30, 2022 I'll take 80 and sunny all day long. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted June 30, 2022 Report Share Posted June 30, 2022 Pleasant cloudy morning. 60F. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted June 30, 2022 Report Share Posted June 30, 2022 24 hour totals for sunday 2 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted June 30, 2022 Report Share Posted June 30, 2022 And here’s Monday 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 30, 2022 Author Report Share Posted June 30, 2022 Forget about the 4th up here... ECMWF has locked in. Going to be very wet. 2 1 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted June 30, 2022 Report Share Posted June 30, 2022 Just now, TT-SEA said: Forget about the 4th up here... ECMWF has locked in. Going to be very wet. Might clear up in the evening potentially south of Seattle if I’m understanding the timing correctly. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 30, 2022 Author Report Share Posted June 30, 2022 Monday from 2-5 p.m. Of course its perfect in western Oregon! 2 1 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted June 30, 2022 Report Share Posted June 30, 2022 Well on a positive note could be a pretty quiet fire season in BC. California could be a problem later in the summer but fire season at the very least is getting delayed in our region even more with decent rain in the WA/OR cascades and some decent precip in central Oregon which still really needs it. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted June 30, 2022 Report Share Posted June 30, 2022 Can’t wait until they finish adding another lane to Highway 217. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 30, 2022 Author Report Share Posted June 30, 2022 And of course Tuesday and Wednesday are beautiful and sunny up here on the 12Z ECMWF. This weekend is really going to enforce the old saying about summer really starting on July 5th in Seattle. The 3rd and 4th will be unusually dark, wet, and cold with thick mid level clouds on top of thick low clouds... the details look just about as nasty as it can get in early July. Then the morning of the 5th will dawn sunny and dry. 1 3 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 30, 2022 Report Share Posted June 30, 2022 2 hours ago, bainbridgekid said: I expect models will continue to really struggle with placement, timing, and amounts of rain with Sunday/Monday's systems. They're quite unusual in that they can't be tracked across the Pacific, but will basically develop right on top of us. GFS is wrong. 1 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 30, 2022 Author Report Share Posted June 30, 2022 Just now, Phil said: GFS is wrong. Like I said a couple days ago... I would love to have the ECMWF and GFS be flipped. There is no way the GFS will win this battle. 1 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted June 30, 2022 Report Share Posted June 30, 2022 51 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: This is not exactly true either. I heard more complaining from my co-workers who were born and raised in the Seattle area than anyone else back in April and May and into the first half of June. They know its not supposed to be that bad. Names? Proof of residency? Sworn affidavits? 1 2 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 30, 2022 Report Share Posted June 30, 2022 6 minutes ago, TacomaWx said: Well on a positive note could be a pretty quiet fire season in BC. California could be a problem later in the summer but fire season at the very least is getting delayed in our region even more with decent rain in the WA/OR cascades and some decent precip in central Oregon which still really needs it. Shawnigan won’t like that at all. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted June 30, 2022 Report Share Posted June 30, 2022 I feel so bad for our BC posters who are going to have their 4th of July plans ruined. 4 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 30, 2022 Author Report Share Posted June 30, 2022 Solar radiation in Seattle on Sunday and Monday is going to be extremely low. This is not showers and sun breaks. I predict there will be a Cliff Mass post about the darkness on Tuesday. 1 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted June 30, 2022 Report Share Posted June 30, 2022 3 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: GFS ensembles look fantastic for goldilocks weather. No sign of significant rain down here, per usual for July. Could be our nicest summer in years while people 200 miles north whine and roll around in the mud because its not 105. I'm loving the stratus. A nice change from the sweltering weekend. 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted June 30, 2022 Report Share Posted June 30, 2022 2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Solar radiation in Seattle on Sunday and Monday is going to be extremely low. This is not showers and sun breaks. I predict there will be a Cliff Mass post about the darkness on Tuesday. And I predict that there will be 65 more Tim posts about it before then. 3 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted June 30, 2022 Report Share Posted June 30, 2022 12z GFS is, indeed, very favorable. 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 30, 2022 Report Share Posted June 30, 2022 1 hour ago, BLI snowman said: And to think Phil said this was going to be the ridgier half of the month!! They say the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over again and expecting a different result. This is the 3rd time I’ve predicted a prolonged warmup this spring/summer and each time it’s ended up being a few days then back to cool. Clearly something is different this year. The same intraseasonal cycles in the tropics that have roasted the PNW since 2013 have not done so in 2022. 4 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 30, 2022 Report Share Posted June 30, 2022 1 hour ago, TT-SEA said: He is always too slow. We had our 3-day ridging period. That is what he saw coming. I think there’ll be another one in mid-July. But I’m sure that’ll end up being a few days again as well. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted June 30, 2022 Report Share Posted June 30, 2022 Just now, Phil said: They say the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over again and expecting a different result. This is the 3rd time I’ve predicted a prolonged warmup this spring/summer and each time it’s ended up being a few days then back to cool. Clearly something is different this year. The same intraseasonal cycles in the tropics that have roasted the PNW since 2013 have not done so in 2022. The heatwave did bring June to above average in Portland at least, so we didn't break that streak of warm Junes, but maybe we can finally get a cool July/August. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted June 30, 2022 Report Share Posted June 30, 2022 8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Solar radiation in Seattle on Sunday and Monday is going to be extremely low. This is not showers and sun breaks. I predict there will be a Cliff Mass post about the darkness on Tuesday. Good lord. 1 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted June 30, 2022 Report Share Posted June 30, 2022 6 minutes ago, BLI snowman said: And I predict that there will be 650 more Tim posts about it before then. Fixed 2 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 30, 2022 Report Share Posted June 30, 2022 1 hour ago, BLI snowman said: Well our next annual 21st century window of DEATH opens up at the very end of July and then lasts through most of August. So you won't really have to wait too long. Am I crazy for taking the under on temps late Jul-mid Aug? Because I don’t see any kind of heat signal during that timeframe. Like, zippo. Though I suppose it’s possible models are wrong w/ handling the suppressed phase of the MJO thru the W-Hem in late July. But I don’t think they’re *that* wrong. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted June 30, 2022 Report Share Posted June 30, 2022 Goldilocks is gonna get WET. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted June 30, 2022 Report Share Posted June 30, 2022 5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Solar radiation in Seattle on Sunday and Monday is going to be extremely low. This is not showers and sun breaks. I predict there will be a Cliff Mass post about the darkness on Tuesday. My favorite kind of summer day, nice and comfy. Diffluent setups that produce broad scale lift are super efficient at saturating the whole column. Means dense, deep cloudcover and lots of precipitation. Very dim lighting. Obviously every day of the Summer it would suck, but since it only happens a couple times, it's very nice. You wouldn't happen to know anything about that though, right? 1 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 30, 2022 Author Report Share Posted June 30, 2022 Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said: Good lord. Its going to be very noticeable to everyone in Seattle on a holiday. And I would bet $1,000 that there will be a Cliff Mass blog post about solar radiation on Tuesday. There are decent rainy days with sun breaks and then there is what is going to happen on Sunday and Monday which will be about as dark as it gets here in the summer. I can spot this easily on the ECMWF surface maps with multiple thick cloud layers. 1 3 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 30, 2022 Author Report Share Posted June 30, 2022 1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said: My favorite kind of summer day, nice and comfy. Diffluent setups that produce broad scale lift are super efficient at saturating the whole column. Means dense, deep cloudcover and lots of precipitation. Very dim lighting. Obviously every day of the Summer it would suck, but since it only happens a couple times, it's very nice. You wouldn't happen to know anything about that though, right? The timing is obviously the huge issue this time. Even you said the only day you really want it to be nice is on the 4th. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted June 30, 2022 Report Share Posted June 30, 2022 Euro overall shows a very cool and wet start to July. Monday could be our wettest July day here at this location since 2019 or even 2014 potentially. I definitely approve since there’s still a good chance it’ll be dry enough for fireworks the evening of the 4th here in the south sound too. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted June 30, 2022 Report Share Posted June 30, 2022 10 minutes ago, Phil said: They say the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over again and expecting a different result. This is the 3rd time I’ve predicted a prolonged warmup this spring/summer and each time it’s ended up being a few days then back to cool. Clearly something is different this year. The same intraseasonal cycles in the tropics that have roasted the PNW since 2013 have not done so in 2022. Whatever it is, I'm loving it. No incessant torching. 5 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted June 30, 2022 Report Share Posted June 30, 2022 3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: The timing is obviously the huge issue this time. Even you said the only day you really want it to be nice is on the 4th. I did! Though I'll also enjoy a rainy and chilly one. Kind of a letdown for outdoor activities like fireworks, but when you're hanging out with good friends and other important people in your life, it fails to matter much. 1 1 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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i will personally make sure this happens
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