TT-SEA Posted July 1, 2022 Author Report Share Posted July 1, 2022 14 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Here at least, precip was pretty much average in October 1949. Most of the precip that month fell between the 5-11th. That must have been a pretty cold trough because we had sub-40 highs with it. October 1949 was not too wet here... but it was cold with numerous frosty nights. And then it was in the low 70s in early November. I need to see a super Nina form first. And even then there are many ways it can fail. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted July 1, 2022 Report Share Posted July 1, 2022 So it’s coming? 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted July 1, 2022 Report Share Posted July 1, 2022 7 minutes ago, Deweydog said: So it’s coming? January 2023 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted July 1, 2022 Report Share Posted July 1, 2022 1 minute ago, TacomaWx said: January 2023 Phil’s January track record is rouph. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted July 1, 2022 Report Share Posted July 1, 2022 1 minute ago, Deweydog said: Phil’s January track record is rouph. Isn’t that your call though? Or did you mean January 2023 in the DC swamps Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted July 1, 2022 Report Share Posted July 1, 2022 1 minute ago, TacomaWx said: Isn’t that your call though? Or did you mean January 2023 in the DC swamps It gives me good feels. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted July 1, 2022 Report Share Posted July 1, 2022 1 minute ago, Deweydog said: It gives me good feels. MLK 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 1 1 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Blob Posted July 1, 2022 Report Share Posted July 1, 2022 1 hour ago, MossMan said: Good question! Jim needs to chime in Here's your chime. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascadia_Wx Posted July 1, 2022 Report Share Posted July 1, 2022 Ended up with an 80/51 day here with some brief morning clouds then bright blazing sunshine. 2 1 1 Quote Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted July 1, 2022 Report Share Posted July 1, 2022 1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said: Ended up with an 80/51 day here with some brief morning clouds then bright blazing sunshine. Looks like 74/47 up herrrrr. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted July 1, 2022 Report Share Posted July 1, 2022 1 hour ago, TT-SEA said: Is that a preference you are stating? Nah just an observation of what the models show. Variability is a good thing for everyone. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted July 1, 2022 Report Share Posted July 1, 2022 21 minutes ago, BLI snowman said: MLK 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Hey, 2020 almost totally worked out. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 1, 2022 Author Report Share Posted July 1, 2022 1 minute ago, GHweatherChris said: Nah just an observation of what the models show. Variability is a good thing for everyone. I think you are stating another preference. Nothing that happens is good or bad. Its all neutral. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascadia_Wx Posted July 1, 2022 Report Share Posted July 1, 2022 6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Looks like 74/47 up herrrrr. Hopefully this will end up being the warmest day of the week 1 Quote Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascadia_Wx Posted July 1, 2022 Report Share Posted July 1, 2022 Crazy it’s the last evening of June. Looks like the month will end up about a degree above average at PDX. Still haven’t had a below average one there since 2012. Maybe someday we will get a cool June again. 3 1 1 Quote Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted July 1, 2022 Report Share Posted July 1, 2022 4 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said: Crazy it’s the last evening of June. Looks like the month will end up about a degree above average at PDX. Still haven’t had a below average one there since 2012. Maybe someday we will get a cool June again. Well someday when we compare it to the 2011-2040 averages it will look cool! 2 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jakeinthevalley Posted July 1, 2022 Report Share Posted July 1, 2022 7 hours ago, Timmy Supercell said: Stayton in 2020 That was after the smoke lifted.. At 9am it was dark as night with ash falling. It was surreal 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascadia_Wx Posted July 1, 2022 Report Share Posted July 1, 2022 1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Well someday when we compare it to the 2011-2040 averages it will look cool! Hard to fathom how dystopian our climate will be at that point. 1 1 Quote Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted July 1, 2022 Report Share Posted July 1, 2022 14 minutes ago, Deweydog said: Hey, 2020 almost totally worked out. Dewness Index peaks on January 24. The last time we had measurable snow fall on that date here was in 1954 (although 2009 missed it by maybe a couple hours). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 1, 2022 Author Report Share Posted July 1, 2022 PDX ended up with almost 200% of normal rainfall for June. Tragic month. And was it also the wettest April - June on record? 1 1 1 1 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted July 1, 2022 Report Share Posted July 1, 2022 14 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: I think you are stating another preference. Nothing that happens is good or bad. Its all neutral. Still not a preference, try again. There is literally something for everyone over the next week currently showing in the models, I thought this was a safe place to talk about what the models are showing, or is it not now because they don't show what you want..... I am confused. Weather does not schedule it's outcome to appease certain dates, it's gonna happen regardless, just enjoy what you can and move on. Good luck. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted July 1, 2022 Report Share Posted July 1, 2022 5 minutes ago, BLI snowman said: Dewness Index peaks on January 24. The last time we had measurable snow fall on that date here was in 1954 (although 2009 missed it by maybe a couple hours). It will NOT occur in 2023. 2024 doesn’t look good either. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted July 1, 2022 Report Share Posted July 1, 2022 6 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said: Hard to fathom how dystopian our climate will be at that point. 1 3 1 5 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted July 1, 2022 Report Share Posted July 1, 2022 The "Al Gore"-rithm was wrong. Time to debug it. 1 2 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 1, 2022 Author Report Share Posted July 1, 2022 9 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said: Still not a preference, try again. There is literally something for everyone over the next week currently showing in the models, I thought this was a safe place to talk about what the models are showing, or is it not now because they don't show what you want..... I am confused. Weather does not schedule it's outcome to appease certain dates, it's gonna happen regardless, just enjoy what you can and move on. Good luck. You should not state preferences Chris. Variability is a preference. Nature is preference-neutral. Please keep preferences out of your posts. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 1, 2022 Author Report Share Posted July 1, 2022 00Z GFS is such a tease. But look at PDX rocking upper 70s and everyone is loving life on the 4th. Well almost everyone. 2 1 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted July 1, 2022 Report Share Posted July 1, 2022 9 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said: Yes the world warming up and climate change is just a figment of our imagination because Al gore and a couple people over exaggerated how rapidly it would happen. It definitely is a real thing and a few decades from now it probably won’t be a joke…the fact it’s even a debate is absolutely comical. 5 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Meatyorologist Posted July 1, 2022 Popular Post Report Share Posted July 1, 2022 10 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said: Dude what even are those websites? Do some basic insight into where you get your information man. Saying "climate change has been hyped" then citing Al Gore's presidential campaign trail and some really sketchy clickbait hubs is just a bad look and very lazy. 7 1 2 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted July 1, 2022 Report Share Posted July 1, 2022 1 minute ago, TacomaWx said: Yes the world warming up and climate change is just a figment of our imagination because Al gore and a couple people over exaggerated how rapidly it would happen. It definitely is a real thing and a few decades from now it probably won’t be a joke…the fact it’s even a debate is absolutely comical. The funniest fucking thing is that ensemble means from rudimentary primitive climate models from the early 1980s are verifying almost perfectly... If anything they've underdone warming after 2000. 1 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 1, 2022 Report Share Posted July 1, 2022 11 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said: The funniest fucking thing is that ensemble means from rudimentary primitive climate models from the early 1980s are verifying almost perfectly... If anything they've underdone warming after 2000. To which primitive models are you referring? Almost all of the projections have overestimated warming under scenarios most similar to the observed GHG increases (particularly in the tropical upper troposphere, which is where the greatest thermalization of intercepted LWR will occur under any positive H2O feedback scenario). Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 1, 2022 Author Report Share Posted July 1, 2022 17 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said: The funniest ******* thing is that ensemble means from rudimentary primitive climate models from the early 1980s are verifying almost perfectly... If anything they've underdone warming after 2000. One side of the political spectrum seems to be obsessed with forced moral outrage over climate change. That pushes the other side away. The fact is that the Earth goes through cycles all the time. The medieval warm period was followed by the little ice age and now its warming again. So part of it is natural. But the AOCs of the world do more to hurt the cause rather than help with the histrionics about the world ending in 10 years. Because it won't. Alligators once lived in the arctic and we are all still here. Life on Earth absolutely thrived when it was much warmer than it is now. 3 3 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted July 1, 2022 Report Share Posted July 1, 2022 25 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: You should not state preferences Chris. Variability is a preference. Nature is preference-neutral. Please keep preferences out of your posts. Nice try, enjoy the weekend. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 1, 2022 Author Report Share Posted July 1, 2022 2 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said: Nice try, enjoy the weekend. We will definitely enjoy it. And my last post was pure sarcasm. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 1, 2022 Report Share Posted July 1, 2022 8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: One side of the political spectrum seems to be obsessed with forced moral outrage over climate change. That pushes the other side away. The fact is that the Earth goes through cycles all the time. The medieval warm period was followed by the little ice age and now its warming again. So part of it is natural. But the AOCs of the world do more to hurt the cause rather than help with the histrionics about the world ending in 10 years. Because it won't. Alligators once lived in the arctic and we are all still here. Life on Earth absolutely thrived when it was much warmer than it is now. Holy crap, I (mostly) agree with this. 3 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted July 1, 2022 Report Share Posted July 1, 2022 16 minutes ago, Phil said: To which primitive models are you referring? Almost all of the projections have overestimated warming under scenarios most similar to the observed GHG increases (particularly in the tropical upper troposphere, which is where the greatest thermalization of intercepted LWR will occur under any positive H2O feedback scenario). Simple energy exchange models from as early on as the 1960s developed by Manabe & Wetherald forecast within 0.5°C. Fairly large errors, but pretty good for its time and its methods. Ensemble means from more sophisticated models that factored in global circulation developed in the late 80s (Hansen et al., Stuart et al.) nailed the last 40 years of warming within 0.1°C. 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 1, 2022 Author Report Share Posted July 1, 2022 2 minutes ago, Phil said: Holy crap, I (mostly) agree with this. We both like 70s in the summer as well. We actually agree on way more than you like to pretend on here. 1 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Deweydog Posted July 1, 2022 Popular Post Report Share Posted July 1, 2022 The warming is a blessing. Jesus is firmly in control and knows exactly what is best for us. Embrace it. 5 3 2 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted July 1, 2022 Report Share Posted July 1, 2022 23 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: One side of the political spectrum seems to be obsessed with forced moral outrage over climate change. That pushes the other side away. The fact is that the Earth goes through cycles all the time. The medieval warm period was followed by the little ice age and now its warming again. So part of it is natural. But the AOCs of the world do more to hurt the cause rather than help with the histrionics about the world ending in 10 years. Because it won't. Alligators once lived in the arctic and we are all still here. Life on Earth absolutely thrived when it was much warmer than it is now. It is true there’s natural cycles to things…and I don’t want to get too deep into it but there’s human caused global warming which is not part of the natural cycle…which is the problem that we ought to figure out and change. I’m not on the AOC train there’s definitely some climate alarmists that are over dramatizing things but there is a real problem. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascadia_Wx Posted July 1, 2022 Report Share Posted July 1, 2022 2 minutes ago, TacomaWx said: It is true there’s natural cycles to things…and I don’t want to get too deep into it but there’s human caused global warming which is not part of the natural cycle…which is the problem that we ought to figure out and change. I’m not on the AOC train there’s definitely some climate alarmists that are over dramatizing things but there is a real problem. I didn’t realize my kind of purposefully over the top comment would create such a big commotion, but you have been a real voice of reason in the discussion. 1 1 Quote Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted July 1, 2022 Report Share Posted July 1, 2022 Already in the 50s here in Sunriver. It does this even on 90+ days most of the time. What an amazing climate. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Posted by Phil,
i will personally make sure this happens
Recommended by Meatyorologist
10 reactions
Go to this post
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.