June 2022 - Summer Begins

[Phil]

Man this just keeps trending stronger.

Boreal summer trade surges like this are usually seen in developing “strong” La Niña regimes. Perhaps a clue as to where this one is headed later in the year.

[Omegaraptor]

3 minutes ago, Phil said:

Man this just keeps trending stronger.

Boreal summer trade surges like this are usually seen in developing “strong” La Niña regimes. Perhaps a clue as to where this one is headed later in the year.

4th year Niña?

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Omegaraptor said:

4th year Niña?

We are heading into 3rd year Nina now.    A 4th year would have to continue through all of next summer too.  

[Phil]

In other words, probably yet another winter of screwage here. Might have to chase the snow to New England again.

[Cloud]

11 minutes ago, Phil said:

Man this just keeps trending stronger.

Boreal summer trade surges like this are usually seen in developing “strong” La Niña regimes. Perhaps a clue as to where this one is headed later in the year.

So are you saying 3rd Nina? Wow. When was the last time this happened? I was expecting a neutral or weak Nino at the very least. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This could be the big one folx.

[Phil]

3 minutes ago, Cloud said:

So are you saying 3rd Nina? Wow. When was the last time this happened? I was expecting a neutral or weak Nino at the very least. 

Almost certainly a 3rd year Niña now.

Reminds me of 1998-01 or 1954-57. And both of those were technically 4yr -ENSOs before the niño flip occurred.

Safe bet that either 2023/24 or 2024/25 is a full blown niño.

[Phil]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

This could be the big one folx.

Descending westerly shear/+QBO argues heavily in favor of a cold western winter. And perfect point in the solar cycle (upward swing) to maximize the relationship w/ the NPAC High.

I think it is, indeed, coming.

[Cloud]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

Almost certainly a 3rd year Niña now.

Reminds me of 1998-01 or 1954-57. And both of those were technically 4yr -ENSOs before the niño flip occurred.

Safe bet that either 2023/24 or 2024/25 is a full blown niño.

Did a little more research on this after I posted. Since bookkeeping began in 1950, there have been 8 instances of a double-dip Nina and 2 triple-dipped. Most likely coincide with the years you posted. Super rare. 

[RentonHill]

Someone said mordor this weekend or some BS and I meant to post this from Saturday night around 9pm after a very wet afternoon. Looking north/nw towards twisp and Winthrop. 

[Cloud]

1 minute ago, RentonHillTC said:

Someone said mordor this weekend or some BS and I meant to post this from Saturday night around 9pm after a very wet afternoon. Looking north/nw towards twisp and Winthrop. 

 

[Cloud]

10 minutes ago, Phil said:

Almost certainly a 3rd year Niña now.

Reminds me of 1998-01 or 1954-57. And both of those were technically 4yr -ENSOs before the niño flip occurred.

Safe bet that either 2023/24 or 2024/25 is a full blown niño.

 

7 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Did a little more research on this after I posted. Since bookkeeping began in 1950, there have been 8 instances of a double-dip Nina and 2 triple-dipped. Most likely coincide with the years you posted. Super rare. 

Expect a full-blown Nino after this one. 

Also found out the years of the triple-dip. 

Quote

As we’ve mentioned a few times here on the ENSO Blog, we’ve had La Niña for three winters in a row only twice before:1973–1976 and 1998–2001. Both of those periods followed very strong El Niño events

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/may-2022-enso-update-piece-cake

[Deweydog]

11 minutes ago, Phil said:

Descending westerly shear/+QBO argues heavily in favor of a cold western winter. And perfect point in the solar cycle (upward swing) to maximize the relationship w/ the NPAC High.

I think it is, indeed, coming.

January 2023 is SMACK DAB in the middle of next winter. 31 days long.

[Phil]

9 minutes ago, Cloud said:

 

Expect a full-blown Nino after this one. 

Also found out the years of the triple-dip. 

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/may-2022-enso-update-piece-cake

I strongly believe the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool, modulated by solar/external forcing, is the driving mechanism behind intra/inter-decadal ENSO variability.

I had predicted a strong multiyear La Niña during the early 2020s using this method.

Note the longitudinal extension of the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool lags the solar cycle by a few years. And, as solar cycles have become weaker, the longitudinal extensions have become less pronounced.

This manifests through ENSO almost as a “dipping bird” function, with the IPWP extensions seeing more frequent niños, while the retractions see the clusters of multiyear niñas.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Oh man... 4th of July weekend is going to be a close call on this run!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

OH NO TIM!!!

Edited June 21, 2022 by SilverFallsAndrew

[Omegaraptor]

7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Oh man... 4th of July weekend is going to be a close call on this run!

Good thing I’ll be in Klamath Falls!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like a wet 4th of July!

[TT-SEA]

First 75 at SEA... didn't make it to the record latest on 6/23/2010.

[Meatyorologist]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

OH NO TIM!!!

10pm, right as the fireworks show begins on Lake Union... 50s and drizzle.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Looks like a wet 4th of July!

Are you bored?    I think I want the 18Z GFS showing rain at 13 days out... we all know it will be completely different on the next 65 runs before the day arrives.  

 

[BLI snowman]

56 minutes ago, Phil said:

Descending westerly shear/+QBO argues heavily in favor of a cold western winter. And perfect point in the solar cycle (upward swing) to maximize the relationship w/ the NPAC High.

I think it is, indeed, coming.

2000-01

[Phil]

Just now, BLI snowman said:

2000-01

I think was was descending easterly easterly shear. Both 1999/00 and 2000/01 had their tropical-extratropical teleconnections screwed up through destructive interference.

Just a wonky period all around from 1997-2002.

[BLI snowman]

12 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Are you bored?    I think I want the 18Z GFS showing rain at 13 days out... we all know it will be completely different on the next 65 runs before the day arrives.  

 

In all seriousness, I hope you've got your reservations all ready to go

https://www.tripadvisor.com/Hotel_Review-g58674-d729499-Reviews-Knights_Inn_Pasco-Pasco_Tri_Cities_Washington.html

 

 

[Meatyorologist]

Extended range GFS would bring in one of the colder July regimes this century. Appears to be rather stable too with the same offshore blocking which gave us our cold Spring returning with a vengeance.

[Front Ranger]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

This could be the big one folx.

Bigger than last June's heatwave?

[BLI snowman]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

I think was was descending easterly easterly shear. Both 1999/00 and 2000/01 had their tropical-extratropical teleconnections screwed up through destructive interference.

Just a wonky period all around from 1997-2002.

2000-01 acted more like a Nino. Rex blocking up the butt.

[Phil]

1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

Bigger than last June's heatwave?

Imagine a January equivalent to that in the cold/snow dept.  

[Front Ranger]

3 minutes ago, Phil said:

Imagine a January equivalent to that in the cold/snow dept.  

Bold call.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

6 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Bigger than last June's heatwave?

I don't think we'll ever top that. 

[Meatyorologist]

3 minutes ago, Phil said:

Imagine a January equivalent to that in the cold/snow dept.  

Is that even possible? Would basically be lows around -10 in my area.

Extrapolating for UHI would basically be a redux w/ lows around 0 at KSEA, but w/ old runway and less concrete like -5 or so

[Omegaraptor]

13 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

In all seriousness, I hope you've got your reservations all ready to go

https://www.tripadvisor.com/Hotel_Review-g58674-d729499-Reviews-Knights_Inn_Pasco-Pasco_Tri_Cities_Washington.html

 

 

Forum meetup at the Pasco fireworks show on the Fourth! Jesse will be grilling the hot dogs.

[TT-SEA]

We already have reservations in Couer D'Alene.   Always a good a idea to hedge your bets.   Summer is short.  

[Doinko]

Are strong, moderate or weak La Ninas more favorable for cold and snow in the PNW? I think 2016/2017 and 2008/09 were weak Nina/cold neutral and they were good, but I'm not too sure.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just a special GFS run. 

One way or another I'll be posting up at the Mt. Angel Fireworks. It's a good show, my niece and nephew live by Cook Park in Tigard, but they come down to Mt. Angel because no one does it like the Trojans. 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

5 hours ago, Doiinko said:

In Portland, Weather.com is going for a high of 95 on Sunday, KPTV is going for 97, KGW is going for 95, KOIN shows 95 and KATU shows 94. Let's see what happens.

KPTV upped Sunday to 98 now. I'm thinking 95-97 on Sunday.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

That 98 on the Fox12 7-day forecast seems like a pipe dream to me. 

[TT-SEA]

80 for a high so far in North Bend.  

[Frontal Snowsquall]

2 hours ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

I don't have a high tolerance for the heat. Ever since the time I got dehydrated despite my best efforts to drink water regularly, then got a migraine from the dehydration, then got severe nausea from the migraine, then couldn't even keep water down due to the nausea, which made the dehydration worse, which made the migraine worse, which made the nausea worse (it was not fun, not in the least, and to make it worse I was alone in a remote area and not well enough to drive to the nearest hospital): I have made a policy of just putting things on hold and not doing much in hot weather.

I feel for you man. I regularly use a sauna so I guess that's why heat doesn't affect me much. I definitely try to stay hydrated as much as I can and drink extra water during the summer. Once it gets 90+ I also start avoiding fluids that dehydrate you, like alcohol and caffeinated drinks. That seems to help a lot. 

[Doinko]

2 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

KPTV upped Sunday to 98 now. I'm thinking 95-97 on Sunday.

98 seems a bit high. I agree, 95-97 seems reasonable.