June 2022 - Summer Begins

[LowerGarfield]

So close to the solstice. T minus three and a half hours.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, LowerGarfield said:

So close to the solstice. T minus three and a half hours.

I like to think of it as only 6 months until the days start getting longer.   T-minus 182.5 days!   

[Phil]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

The 00Z GEM kind of shows it too... its definitely not moving inland and might be moving a little backwards at the end of the run.    Might be a nerve-racking few days for you buddy!  

They’re night and day, my friend.

CMC is plausible. GFS..no way in hell.

[Skagit Weather]

3 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Lake Sammamish water temp is back down to 65 after peaking at 68 before this last trough.    But the warm up should be rapid and impressive after Wednesday.   I bet the water temp is in the mid to maybe upper 70s one week from today and should stay there until September. 

It's remarkable that the water is that warm. The average high down there hasn't even been above 65F recently!

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

It's remarkable that the water is that warm. The average high down there hasn't even been above 65F recently!

I know... and next week it will probably be 78.   

[TT-SEA]

9 minutes ago, Phil said:

They’re night and day, my friend.

CMC is plausible. GFS..no way in hell.

Looks like pretty minor details to me.    Not sure how we are going to actually settle this bet!

[Phil]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Looks like pretty minor details to me.    Not sure how we are going to actually settle this bet!

If the ULL retrogrades backwards and the 4CH re-expands, you win. If it stalls or slowly cuts through the weakening ridge, I win.

Sound good?

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

If the ULL retrogrades backwards and the 4CH re-expands, you win. If the ULL stalls or slowly cuts through the weakening ridge, I win.

Sound good?

But if I lose... I still keep body parts intact!   

[Phil]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

But if I lose... I still keep body parts intact!   

Fine, but you have to install a rain gauge.

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

Fine, but you have to install a rain gauge.

On his d*ck?

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, Phil said:

Fine, but you have to install a rain gauge.

I don't feel that strongly about the GFS solution!   Side note... I have an old fashioned rain gauge.   I just get lazy about emptying it when it's raining every day.   I mostly pay attention during the summer when it's dry and rain is needed. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Remember. Torching begets torching. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Ensembles are not bad. 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

19 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Remember. Torching begets torching. 

The 00z EURO is now showing Monday as the hottest day of this heatwave with Tuesday still in the 90s for PDX. No big marine push until Wednesday now.

[Meatyorologist]

31 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Remember. Torching begets torching. 

Short term improvements beget long term improvements though. Let's focus on the plus side... GEM and GFS both less amplified than their previous runs.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Looks like this heatwave might not go down without a fight. Pretty typical 21st century fare. Up to four days in the 90s now on the new Euro.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Meanwhile a really pleasant one today. 70/52 spread with morning clouds and afternoon sun. Will be missing days like this soon.

[LowerGarfield]

As I roll over in my sleep. Happy Solstice in less than one minute. Now back to bed.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

49F and really nice out there. Still no 90F+ being shown for here. Let's hope it stays that way.

[T-Town]

54 and foggy this morning. 

[Tyler Mode]

Nice cool 46 this morning.  Every July and August still has a low down into the 40s.

[TT-SEA]

Sunny here this morning.   A nice start to astronomical summer.  

The 06Z GFS was insistent on saving Phil's manhood!   That ULL races eastward much faster than the 00Z run and faster than the ECMWF/EPS.   The 06Z run has the ULL approaching by Monday and showed a high in the 60s by Wednesday.   Of course that just opens the door to another ridge for the holiday weekend so that progression would be ideal.

One more observation... we had cottonwood puffs floating around yesterday.    They started doing that back in May as usual and were not really that late in leafing out this year but the shedding process has gone longer than I have ever seen here and its not even close.     Apparently they wait for sunny, dry days to shed for maximum spread and because its been raining almost every day they are still going.   That is always a May thing here... its really strange to see them still trying to finish in late June.   Everything with our trees has been unusual since April.    

As I have mentioned before... I think the odds of spectacular fall color lasting through October is very high this year.   2008 comes to mind.   I suppose the fall weather will play a role... but the trees should be primed to hold their leaves extra long this year.    I always think back to 2016 which had a ridiculously early leaf out and a decently wet summer and yet the trees were all turning yellow in August.   It seemed like they had run through their cycle about 2 months ahead of schedule and were done early.

 

[TT-SEA]

It seems like the models are trending a little less amplified with the weekend ridge which means weaker offshore flow and more reasonable temps.  The ECMWF shows SEA peaking at 85 so we might just avoid 90 here.   Fine by me... every day with a high in the 70s or 80s through mid September is a win in my book.   

[jakeinthevalley]

Perfect golf weekend around Bremerton. Comfortable and cloudy Sunday at McCormick Woods. Finished with a seafood feast at Anthony's.

Monday was 36 holes at Gold Mountain. Drizzly and comfortable for the morning round on Cascades course. Sky lifted for afternoon round on Olympic and even had some sunshine that dried out the moisture on the greens.

So lush and green all around the area. Considering all the rain previous, grounds were not soggy at all.

[TacomaWaWx]

Foggy AF this morning here. Low of 52.

[TacomaWaWx]

80,81 and 86 shown on the euro next week. Even adding in a couple degrees it’s not a terrible heatwave here atleast. 

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, TacomaWaWx said:

80,81 and 86 shown on the euro next week. Even adding in a couple degrees it’s not a terrible heatwave here atleast. 

KPTV is forecasting 93, 97, 94 here. A bit too close to 100 for my liking but gladly it's short lived.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Foggy when I got up, but now severe clear. 

[TacomaWaWx]

9 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

KPTV is forecasting 93, 97, 94 here. A bit too close to 100 for my liking but gladly it's short lived.

Yeah unfortunately you gotta add like 10 degrees to our highs up here down there usually. One of the reasons I like living up here is the natural AC from the Puget sound keeps things in check but of course the flip side of the coin in the winter is milder lows. 

[Phil]

Woowww I was plastered last night.

Deals a deal, though.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

Woowww I was plastered last night.

Deals a deal, though.

 I think you got this... its going to be OK.  

[ShawniganLake]

2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Sunny here this morning.   A nice start to astronomical summer.  

The 06Z GFS was insistent on saving Phil's manhood!   That ULL races eastward much faster than the 00Z run and faster than the ECMWF/EPS.   The 06Z run has the ULL approaching by Monday and showed a high in the 60s by Wednesday.   Of course that just opens the door to another ridge for the holiday weekend so that progression would be ideal.

One more observation... we had cottonwood puffs floating around yesterday.    They started doing that back in May as usual and were not really that late in leafing out this year but the shedding process has gone longer than I have ever seen here and its not even close.     Apparently they wait for sunny, dry days to shed for maximum spread and because its been raining almost every day they are still going.   That is always a May thing here... its really strange to see them still trying to finish in late June.   Everything with our trees has been unusual since April.    

As I have mentioned before... I think the odds of spectacular fall color lasting through October is very high this year.   2008 comes to mind.   I suppose the fall weather will play a role... but the trees should be primed to hold their leaves extra long this year.    I always think back to 2016 which had a ridiculously early leaf out and a decently wet summer and yet the trees were all turning yellow in August.   It seemed like they had run through their cycle about 2 months ahead of schedule and were done early.

 

Cottonwoods are peaking here right now, in regards to the fluff floating around.  About 1 month late. 

[Skagit Weather]

It's funny how cautious everyone is approaching this heatwave. It's like we were traumatized by the extreme event last year and now every heatwave has the potential to send SEA over 100F. SEA averages 3-4 days above 90F every year and PDX averages 10-15 days above 90F with 1-2 days above 100F. I know many on here wanted this to be the coldest summer on record in the manner of 1954, but that was always unlikely and even the coolest summers generally have a heat wave or two.

80-90F with low dew points is objectively nice weather and happens every year. Even if it gets above 90F it's only for a few hours. Go out and do something outside in the mountains where it's cooler. Go camping. Find some place to go swimming. Or sit inside with air conditioning. Sure, if it looks like the heat wave is going to extend to eternity or reach unheard of highs then we can bemoan the approach of death, but otherwise 90s kind of come with living in a place where 90s happen every year (yes, even before climate change made them more common).

[Phishy Wx]

You know people on here talk about 'Fake' cold in the winter?  What about some 'Fake' heat in the summer? for reall?

[T-Town]

Looks like we have a deer sanctuary going here. They have been out there for a couple hours. 

[TacomaWaWx]

14 minutes ago, Phil said:

Woowww I was plastered last night.

Deals a deal, though.

[Phil]

2 minutes ago, T-Town said:

Looks like we have a deer sanctuary going here. They have been out there for a couple hours. 

Vermin.

[Phil]

   

[T-Town]

7 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Trailer Park Boys rules!!

[T-Town]

6 minutes ago, Phil said:

Vermin.

If they come around front and try to eat our flowers they better be ready for hand to hoof combat with my wife.