June 2022 - Summer Begins

[Cascadia_Wx]

9 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

You know people on here talk about 'Fake' cold in the winter?  What about some 'Fake' heat in the summer? for reall?

I’ve thought about this before. The closest analogy would be a pattern that favors heat or warmth at the surface even though the upper levels are relatively cool. The best example would probably be a pattern with South or SE flow aloft around a ULL allowing the surface to warm a lot relative to 850s. Good pattern for thunder.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Of course “fake cold” in the winter is a much more stable pattern that requires a less narrow range of atmospheric conditions, so it is more common and usually longer lasting.

[TT-SEA]

Monday is pretty wonky on the 12Z GFS... the ULL is approaching that day and it pumps up the heat ahead of it.   Hopefully this is way overdone. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Monday is pretty wonky on the 12Z GFS... the ULL is approaching that day and it pumps up the heat ahead of it.   Hopefully this is way overdone. 

89 at SLE, 86 in EUG, meanwhile the pagans in PDX and SEA roast. 

[Phil]

EPS weeklies’ high temp matrix for Dallas TX.

This is suicide weather. Talk about hopeless.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

06z ensembles were a nice step forward. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Phil said:

EPS weeklies’ high temp matrix for Dallas TX.

This is suicide weather. Talk about hopeless.

Well if it's hot there it probably won't be scorching here... Many prayerz.

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

06z ensembles were a nice step forward. 

00z EPS was much better than the operational too in terms of breaking the heat down faster 

[TacomaWaWx]

I get the feeling Phil’s right about the next couple weeks being on the warm side over all but maybe not torchy after this weekend/early next week. Overall I get the feeling this summer will be overall mostly have western troughing. Will probably get one more heatwave in august or September some point if I had to guess.

[Phil]

GFS gave up cutting off the first ULL but is trying to pull the same stunt with a second one.

Color me skeptical.

[TacomaWaWx]

Probably gonna be another hour before we clear up…but it’s a nice cool morning here. 

[Anti Marine Layer]

12 minutes ago, Phil said:

EPS weeklies’ high temp matrix for Dallas TX.

This is suicide weather. Talk about hopeless.

Pray for tropical storms 

[Phil]

Just now, TacomaWaWx said:

I get the feeling Phil’s right about the next couple weeks being on the warm side over all but maybe not torchy after this weekend/early next week. Overall I get the feeling this summer will be overall mostly have western troughing. Will probably get one more heatwave in august or September some point if I had to guess.

Yeah looks like a warm default into the middle of July (ridging dominant with some troughing intermixed), then a -PNA signal emerges during mid/late July (troughing dominant with ridging intermixed). Typical stuff, really.

What’s ironic is the very La Niña like base state is actually partly if not largely responsible for this warm up. If in-situ AAM was higher, the response to this bout of intense Indo-Pacific forcing would not be as blocked up/ULL dominant.

AAM will recover by mid-July, then tank again with the MJO/GWO orbit. That -dAAMt process is often when warm season -PNA patterns emerge, and it’s why Niño-to-Niña transition summers are often so cool in the PNW (AAM falling from high to low). 

[TacomaWaWx]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

Yeah looks like a warm default into the middle of July (ridging dominant with some troughing intermixed), then a -PNA signal emerges during mid/late July (troughing dominant with ridging intermixed). Typical stuff, really.

What’s ironic is the very La Niña like base state is actually partly if not largely responsible for this warm up. If in-situ AAM was higher, the response to this bout of intense Indo-Pacific forcing would not be as blocked up/ULL dominant.

AAM will recover by mid-July, then tank again with the MJO/GWO orbit. That -dAAMt process is often when warm season -PNA patterns emerge, and it’s why Niño-to-Niña transition summers are often so cool in the PNW (AAM falling from high to low). 

Thanks Mr.Science man

[Anti Marine Layer]

1 hour ago, Phil said:

Woowww I was plastered last night.

Deals a deal, though.

[Cascadia_Wx]

5 minutes ago, Phil said:

Yeah looks like a warm default into the middle of July (ridging dominant with some troughing intermixed), then a -PNA signal emerges during mid/late July (troughing dominant with ridging intermixed). Typical stuff, really.

What’s ironic is the very La Niña like base state is actually partly if not largely responsible for this warm up. If in-situ AAM was higher, the response to this bout of intense Indo-Pacific forcing would not be as blocked up/ULL dominant.

AAM will recover by mid-July, then tank again with the MJO/GWO orbit. That -dAAMt process is often when warm season -PNA patterns emerge, and it’s why Niño-to-Niña transition summers are often so cool in the PNW (AAM falling from high to low). 

Pulling from notation way back when I took Calc, but would this be the derivative of the AAM with respect to time? If so, it seems like there would be some way better ways to explain it in layman’s terms.

[Phil]

2 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Pulling from notation way back when I took Calc, but would this be the derivative of the AAM with respect to time? If so, it seems like there would be some way better ways to explain it in layman’s terms.

Correct, rate of change w/ respect to time. Sometimes referred to as AAM tendency.

I’m terrible at straightforward explanations, sorry.

[T-Town]

Deer update. They left for 30 minutes and now they’re back in the exact same spots. Must have gone and smoked a bowl or something. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

7 minutes ago, Phil said:

Correct, rate of change w/ respect to time. Sometimes referred to as AAM tendency.

I’m terrible at straightforward explanations, sorry.

That makes sense. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

7 minutes ago, T-Town said:

Deer update. They left for 30 minutes and now they’re back in the exact same spots. Must have gone and smoked a bowl or something. 

Which reminds me... Better go brew some coffee...

[Cascadia_Wx]

Definitely liking this morning’s trend of a quicker breakdown of the ridge on the GFS. Hoping to see the Euro follow suit.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Seems like peak 850s have been trending a little milder across all guidance as well.

[bainbridgekid]

On 6/16/2022 at 10:16 AM, bainbridgekid said:

12z GFS spits out afternoon temps for Seattle of 76, 78, 75, and 76 Tuesday through Friday of next week. Would love if that actually happened but I'm very skeptical given how chilly the Euro still is.

Unsurprisingly, it looks like two highs in the mid 60's will sneak in there again tomorrow and Thursday. Definitely looking forward to the real warmth after that!

[RentonHill]

Thanks for the writeup @Deweydog

[TT-SEA]

14 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

Unsurprisingly, it looks like two highs in the mid 60's will sneak in there again tomorrow and Thursday. Definitely looking forward to the real warmth after that!

Yeah... going to finally feel like summer.     The lack of our usual 'teaser' summer days has been really depressing this year.   

[Frontal Snowsquall]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Which reminds me... Better go brew some coffee...

Just had an iced nitro cold brew, so delicious  

[RentonHill]

4 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

Just had an iced nitro cold brew, so delicious  

Poop incoming

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Expect it to stay below 30°C/86°F at my place. It should be significantly warmer than at YVR, significantly cooler than up the Fraser Valley. A garden-variety heat wave.

Needed a fan so I bought one yesterday. Stores will run out on the first hot day. They always do.

The big worry is flooding. Still a lot of snow in the mountains.

[yellowstone]

18 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Yeah... going to finally feel like summer.     The lack of our usual 'teaser' summer days has been really depressing this year.   

Has it?  I wasn’t sure you’d noticed.

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, yellowstone said:

Has it?  I wasn’t sure you’d noticed.

Yes... I thought I might as well be up front about how I feel about this spring.   

[Phishy Wx]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Which reminds me... Better go brew some coffee...

They're high as a giraffe a**

[Cascadia_Wx]

12z Euro is looking primed to be much more progressive with the ULL at hour 144 than the 00z in the same time frame 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

2 hours ago, Phil said:

EPS weeklies’ high temp matrix for Dallas TX.

This is suicide weather. Talk about hopeless.

When my parents lived in Dallas, they would talk about “the [high] temperature[s] cooling down into the 90’s.”

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Rubus Leucodermis said:

When my parents lived in Dallas, they would talk about “the [high] temperature[s] cooling down into the 90’s.”

Been 8 years since DFW hit their annual average of 20 100+ days. ITS TIME.

[Doinko]

In Portland, Weather.com is going for a high of 95 on Sunday, KPTV is going for 97, KGW is going for 95, KOIN shows 95 and KATU shows 94. Let's see what happens.

[Phil]

Decent improvement on the 12z ECMWF.

Baby steps.

[TT-SEA]

11 minutes ago, Phil said:

Decent improvement on the 12z ECMWF.

Baby steps.

I think it would be ideal if that ULL can move through next week in terms of timing... setting the stage for maybe another ridge over the holiday weekend.   

[Phil]

8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I think it would be ideal if that ULL can move through next week in terms of timing... setting the stage for maybe another ridge over the holiday weekend.   

A subsequent ridge is a good bet, as we’ll still have some -NPO element to the pattern then.

But I don’t think it’ll be nearly as strong/stable as the first one. Starting to look like an early climax to this multi-week warm pattern, with subsequent crests being less impressive each time.

[Phishy Wx]

not turrible...  stay away 90s

[Cascadia_Wx]

22 minutes ago, Phil said:

A subsequent ridge is a good bet, as we’ll still have some -NPO element to the pattern then.

But I don’t think it’ll be nearly as strong/stable as the first one. Starting to look like an early climax to this multi-week warm pattern, with subsequent crests being less impressive each time.

500mb pattern at hour 240 almost looks primed for another ULL to drop down