Iowa2015 Posted November 18, 2015 Report Share Posted November 18, 2015 I'm going with the majority Gem Gfs Nam as most system have took the southerly track love for those totals to verify it be amazing first snowstorm to kick off the winter season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 18, 2015 Report Share Posted November 18, 2015 Nam coming in stronger Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted November 18, 2015 Report Share Posted November 18, 2015 Oh how I love when the NAM acts like the NAM 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 18, 2015 Report Share Posted November 18, 2015 NAM Map pls.. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WBadgersW Posted November 18, 2015 Report Share Posted November 18, 2015 NAM picking up on some LES? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted November 18, 2015 Report Share Posted November 18, 2015 NAM looks like it weakens the storm as it heads east. Different setup compared to all the other models. Edit: It is the NAM but I expected just the opposite. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 18, 2015 Author Report Share Posted November 18, 2015 NAM is weaker for some reason... These two maps don't jive at all if you compare scales. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 18, 2015 Report Share Posted November 18, 2015 NAM is weaker for some reason... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2015111818/namconus_asnow_ncus_29.png NAM is showing 12+ in southern Minny. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 18, 2015 Author Report Share Posted November 18, 2015 NAM is weaker for some reason... NAM is showing 12+ in southern Minny. As I added above - the scale on this map is off. Instant weather maps has the correct accumulations. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chances14 Posted November 18, 2015 Report Share Posted November 18, 2015 probably has to do with the fact tropical tidbits uses 10:1 ratios while instantweather maps uses their own algorithm for determining snowfall totals Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted November 18, 2015 Report Share Posted November 18, 2015 Wonder is the NAM is just doing its normal weird stuff , because man that looks nothing like the other models. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WBadgersW Posted November 18, 2015 Report Share Posted November 18, 2015 Wonder is the NAM is just doing its normal weird stuff , because man that looks nothing like the other models.Probably, it is long range NAM. GFS looks healthy at hour 54 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 18, 2015 Report Share Posted November 18, 2015 GFS with 10-12 inches for N. IL about 6-8 for Geos area. Overall, it's wetter/stronger and a bit north than 12z GFS. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 18, 2015 Author Report Share Posted November 18, 2015 GFS strong... and with Lake enhanced snow too. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowa2015 Posted November 18, 2015 Report Share Posted November 18, 2015 18z gfs nice for all of iowa pretty constant Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WBadgersW Posted November 18, 2015 Report Share Posted November 18, 2015 Just another slight bump North on the GFS and I'm golden. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 18, 2015 Author Report Share Posted November 18, 2015 1 Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted November 18, 2015 Report Share Posted November 18, 2015 ^All I can say is "WOW" to those numbers in the maps above that Geos posted. Models have been pretty consistent on the strenght of this storm. It has plenty of energy to work with coming off of the PAC NW. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted November 18, 2015 Report Share Posted November 18, 2015 winter storm watches have gone up now from southeast SD into Iowa for up to 7" of snow Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 18, 2015 Report Share Posted November 18, 2015 My God I'm loving this. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted November 18, 2015 Report Share Posted November 18, 2015 Snow will compact a bit, so I'd take a couple inches off those totals, and probably another couple inches given mixing potential in the beginning and possibly lower ratios than expected. Final call for ORD: 6.0" 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 18, 2015 Report Share Posted November 18, 2015 My county is in a winter storm watch!And a wind advisory for tomorrow for up to 50 mph gusts. Quite the active week! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted November 18, 2015 Report Share Posted November 18, 2015 The Grizz is back!!! Love this time of year!! Ways to go ,, but DMX a little more interested compared to whoever worked this AM-- THE NEXT ITEM WILL BE THE IMPENDING WINTER STORM. SHORT WAVE INQUESTION IS STILL CURRENTLY INTO THE PACIFIC BUT WILL RAPIDLY COMEONSHORE INTO THE PACIFIC NW THU NIGHT BEFORE REACHING THE MOVALLEY FRI. DEEP FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLYMATURE INTO IA DURING THE DAY WITH NOTED THERMODYNAMIC ANDKINEMATIC CONTRIBUTIONS. MID LEVEL QG FORCING IS QUITE STRONG ASIS THE THETA-E ADVECTION. SLOPED FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IS ALSONOTED INTO THE DEEP OVERALL QG FORCING. SIMILAR LIFT IS ALSO SHOWNIN THE 285-295K ISENTROPIC LAYER WHICH IS NEAR THE DENDRITICGROWTH ZONE /DGZ/. MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND INFLOW INTO THE PRECIPZONE IS FAIRLY HIGH...AND SUPPORTS HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS DEPICTED INTHE OPERATIONAL MODELS. THE DGZ DEPTH IS NOT EXTREME BUT IS CLOSETO THE MAX OMEGA INTO THE FRONTOGENETIC ZONE WHICH INCREASESCHANCES OF HIGHER SNOW FALL RATES...AS DOES REDUCED STATICSTABILITY AND LOWERING THETA-E LAPSE RATES. THESE FEATURES /QPFAND SNOW RATIOS/ COMBINED LOOK TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR MODERATE TOHEAVY SNOW. THUS HAVE RAISED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS INTO THE FOUR TOSEVEN INCH RANGE ALONG AND NEAR THE HIGHWAY 20 AND 30 CORRIDORS.CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH HOWEVER AS LOW LEVELS ARE DRY INITIALLY ANDSOME QPF WILL BE USED TO SATURATE THE COLUMN AND DROP TEMPS TO THEWET BULB...AND THIS DOES NOT EVEN TAKE INTO ACCOUNT MODEL NORTH TOSOUTH DIFFERENCES WHICH ALTER RAIN/SNOW LINE PLACEMENT ANDPROGRESSION. MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH HIGHERAMOUNTS HOWEVER SO WITH THIS BEING THE FIRST ACCUMS OF THESEASON...AND POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT AT THAT...HAVE ISSUED ATARGETED WATCH TO RAISE AWARENESS FOR A START. THIS COULD BETRANSITIONED TO A LARGER ADVISORY OR EVEN WARNING AS NECESSARY.ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE LOW CONFIDENCE IN SENSIBLE WEATHEROUTCOMES WITH AFOREMENTIONED ACCUMS MAINLY BEING ON VEGETATIONAND REDUCED A PERCENTAGE ON PAVEMENT DUE TO MELTING. 3 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 18, 2015 Author Report Share Posted November 18, 2015 Should be a nice tree plastering event. Definitely looking forward to taking picture Saturday morning. 1 Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 18, 2015 Report Share Posted November 18, 2015 http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day3_composite.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted November 18, 2015 Report Share Posted November 18, 2015 Looks like south of i80 in Iowa should think about throwing in the towel since models will be adjusting and push north. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WBadgersW Posted November 18, 2015 Report Share Posted November 18, 2015 Looks like south of i80 in Iowa should think about throwing in the towel since models will be adjusting and push north.You say this why? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted November 18, 2015 Report Share Posted November 18, 2015 Looks like south of i80 in Iowa should think about throwing in the towel since models will be adjusting and push north.yeah it's gonna be 70 and sunny instead, throw in the towel. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted November 18, 2015 Report Share Posted November 18, 2015 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowa2015 Posted November 18, 2015 Report Share Posted November 18, 2015 Temporary torch Bye late next week single dight teens next weekend Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted November 18, 2015 Report Share Posted November 18, 2015 Temporary torch Bye late next week single dight teens next weekendNow why would anyone want that? What's so fun about that? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted November 19, 2015 Report Share Posted November 19, 2015 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowa2015 Posted November 19, 2015 Report Share Posted November 19, 2015 Now why would anyone want that? What's so fun about that?Personally i take this same storm following Friday you could easily double whatever falls this Friday Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 19, 2015 Report Share Posted November 19, 2015 FileL.pngDamm that is nice! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andrew NE Posted November 19, 2015 Report Share Posted November 19, 2015 I have a feeling Omaha is going to be too far south for this one. Wish it could dig some more before it gets to Iowa. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 19, 2015 Report Share Posted November 19, 2015 Thanks for all the posts today. Been following them on my phone while I was working outside the office today. Anyhow, this is turning out to be quite the system to track. Seems like this PAC energy is getting better sampling and the models are picking up on the wave getting its act together earlier each run (reminds me of the days leading up to the Super Bowl storm but not quite as intense). http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015111818/gfs_asnow_ncus_17.png I'm baffled to see the 18z GFS spitting out 6-11" for IA/N IL/S MI! If trends continue, I expect to see NE fill in with a wider band of accumulating snow. The way this system is laying out is characteristic of how this Winter storm track may end up becoming with blocking in central Canada. I could see plenty of these west/east systems down the road...and of course, many cutters/gulf systems. If we end up getting 6"+ at ORD, this would be the most snow I'd have seen pre-Thanksgiving! It may stick around through the following week if what I think is going to happen. Def going to try to put up my Christmas lights by Friday night...not going to risk waiting around. That tanking EPO next week is going to wreck havoc on the models and try to "push" like it has the past 2 years. We should have an interesting battle for that system over the following days. BTW, as for the ground temps go, looks like temps Thursday night might dip down into the upper 20's around here which should cool the ground a bit before the snow falls later on Friday. Nonetheless, Let it Snow! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
centralweather44 Posted November 19, 2015 Report Share Posted November 19, 2015 We dont seem to do very well in Lincoln and Omaha with the clippers. I expect to see a little bit of snow but 4" ground temps are still in the 40's around here. Most will melt after hitting the ground. It would be great to see a healthy snow before thanksgiving. But doesn't happen very often here in southeast Nebraska. We usually have to wait until December before that happens. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 19, 2015 Author Report Share Posted November 19, 2015 If it dips into the 20s tomorrow night and is cloudy on Friday, then ground temps should be cold enough. The storm on 12/1/06 came right after a big mild spell like this one. Didn't have trouble putting down 12.5" here. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
centralweather44 Posted November 19, 2015 Report Share Posted November 19, 2015 True. We will just need a bit of heavy banding. I know a lot of things are still up in the air. Things have been settling south a little bit compared to what it was a few days ago. We are right on the edge of 1-2 inches right now. Would love to squeeze out 1 or 2 inches to get the plows on the ground. It will be interested to see what the models do tomorrow. Winds just picked up here in Lincoln about 30 minutes ago. Blowing around 20-30 mph, with gusts even higher. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted November 19, 2015 Report Share Posted November 19, 2015 NAM through 51 seems to be trending South. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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