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December Observations and Discussions

gosaints

By gosaints
in East of the Rockies

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Tom
Tom

For those who are interested in "ignoring" posts from any individual member, see below how you can adjust your Profile Settings:   1) Go to My Settings 2) Click on "ignore" Preferences...add members a

Geos
Geos

We need to send a bigger snow system to Nebraska before our next big one though! They need to catch up!    @ Tom A high near Greenland or over Greenland and one over Alaska can act to destabilize the

Money
Money

Can someone please ban maxium and GDR?

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OKwx2k4 Mentor

OKwx2k4

Posted
Posted

who said atlanta

Anyone with much weather knowledge knows that it is pretty rare for a storm to undergo bombogenesis in general over the US. The storms that have historically achieved this in the past, however originated as storms which tracked near my area. They do not typically "bomb out" until much farther north and east of here.

 

I was referring to the so called 1 inch snowstorm or whatever miniscule amount it was a year or 2 ago that shut Atlanta down.

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Geos Proficient

Geos

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Nice storm on the 15th again.

Cold air will actually be around for that one.

 

Looks like a flip to wintry after the 14th or so. Rest of the run of the GFS actually has big parts of the Midwest below normal for awhile. Highest departures in the northern Plains.

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Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Geos Proficient

Geos

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CMC is somewhat following the GFS on that same time frame with more cold air in the lower 48. Doesn't go past 240 hours though.

 

Pacific pattern most interest to note at the end of the run.

 

 

More buckling of the jet stream.

 

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Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Maxim Newbie

Maxim

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Nice storm on the 15th again.

Cold air will actually be around for that one.

 

Looks like a flip to wintry after the 14th or so. Rest of the run of the GFS actually has big parts of the Midwest below normal for awhile. Highest departures in the northern Plains.

looks transient

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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12z EPS showing the big trough digging deep into the southern Plains and then hooking up towards the Lakes indicative of a -PNA pattern.  Most members show a Cutter type system.  Snowfall has crept up in the Midwest/Western Lakes for the 2nd system on the 15th.

 

Many different solutions are on the table...nonetheless, looks like an action packed pattern setting up and won't be the last storm to track.

 

 

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westMJim Veteran

westMJim

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CONGRATULATIONS MSU on a great win last night.

Now on to the nice warm start we are (and will continue to have) to December 2015.  At this time it looks like every day in the first 12 to maybe 15 days will be above average.  The last time GR went 10 days into December with every day above average was just back in 2012 and that year December ended up at +5.9° and only 7.2” of snow fell that month.  The last time GR went more then 15 days into December with all days above average was 2001 and that December ended up +4.7° but we had a lot of snow 53.9” neither years were  El Nino nor La Nina years. So while it’s a good bet that December 2015 will end up warmer then average snow fall wise it still a toss up.  Working against any the snow this year (and maybe next year as well) is that for the first time in 30 years or more I bought snow tires for one of my cars. If it don’t snow it’s a good investment and if it does snow will they should help  The sun is now up and the temp is now already up to 43° so it looks to be a great December day!

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westMJim Veteran

westMJim

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12z EPS showing the big trough digging deep into the southern Plains and then hooking up towards the Lakes indicative of a -PNA pattern.  Most members show a Cutter type system.  Snowfall has crept up in the Midwest/Western Lakes for the 2nd system on the 15th.

 

Many different solutions are on the table...nonetheless, looks like an action packed pattern setting up and won't be the last storm to track.

Tom do you know what the set up was in December of 2001? it was a very warm December that year but none the less parts of the Great Lakes had a lot of lake effect snow the last two week of that December.  Here in Grand Rapids we had 53.9" of snow that month will 50+ inches of that falling from December 23 to the 31

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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Tom do you know what the set up was in December of 2001? it was a very warm December that year but none the less parts of the Great Lakes had a lot of lake effect snow the last two week of that December.  Here in Grand Rapids we had 53.9" of snow that month will 50+ inches of that falling from December 23 to the 31

TBH, I do not remember.  Although, I will say, the pattern during Week 2 & 3 is prime for Cutters.  12z GFS showing a deep Texarkana SLP coming up from the Gulf.  Those are textbook powerhouse storms that hit the Midwest/Lakes region.  00z EPS had this idea also.

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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My God, Id love to see a snowfall map of that monster storm showing up on the GFS for around the 15th.

Not as spectacular as one would like to see with this type of system, but has big time potential...would put a smile on the faces of OKCwx & Winterfreak...

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james1976 Veteran

james1976

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That's a powerhouse storm on GFS. 979MB SLP right over Chicago. Here in Eastern Iowa, on the backside, it's all snow. December 15th is also my birthday so that would really be something. Bring it on!

I think the difference on this run is that there is a northern and southern piece that phase. Interested to see if this trend continues. 

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Geos Proficient

Geos

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I love the tree plastering snows, so I don't mind if it is a bit above normal for temps.

 

Noticed a prevailing high of Greenland most of the 12z run of the GFS.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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12z Euro with the same idea as the GFS digging the second system on the 13th/14th way south into E TX/LA/AR and ejects NE into S IN/S OH.  This storm has some big potential for a Great Lakes cutter.  Still got a ways to go to see if this can phase into a monster.

 

Edit: Another storm digs into the central Rockies and produces a snow storm in the Plains/Midwest on Day 9/10.  Yet another trough digs into Cali after this system.  Here comes the storm train.

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