December 2015 in the Pacific Northwest

[Lisa0527]

Long time lurker here. Quick question. Does anyone ever look at the Norwegian yr.no site for the point forecasts? It definitely shows snow for Vancouver on Christmas Eve, but not sure how reliable they are. Would love to believe. Here's today's Abbotsford 12Z forecast.

 

http://www.yr.no/place/Canada/British_Columbia/Abbotsford/long.html

 

Edit: This site provides the euro forecast with snow/precipitation totals. They seem overly optimistic most of the time.

[Jbolin]

Total snow from now until 1 a.m. tonight per HRRR operational.

 

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_ncep_jet/2015122218/t1/acsnw_t1sfc_f15.png

NOT happening, at least for those below say 750ft

 

Not with the southerlies kicking up

[TT-SEA]

NOT happening, at least for those below say 750ft

 

 

Checking accuracy of the HRRR model... here is what it showed yesterday morning for total snowfall through yesterday evening.    I have no idea how well it does with snowfall predictions.   

 

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_ncep_jet/2015122112/t1/acsnw_t1sfc_f15.png

[Front Ranger]

It looks to me like the only places likely to see accumulating snow tonight will be north and east of Seattle, with the further north you are, the better your chances.

[Randyc321]

Also, ECMWF only shows Skagit/Whatcom expanding their snow totals on Christmas Eve, nothing for the rest of Western WA. That being said, on Christmas day, looks like King/Snohomish/Pierce counties get a little more.

 

Totals by Christmas afternoon (rough idea):

Pierce: 0 near the water, 3-5 near Eatonville

King: 0 near the water, 3-5 near North Bend

Snohomish: 1 inch near the water, 4 inches near Granite Falls

Whatcom: 3 inches near Bellingham, 7 near the border

 

Willing to add a Kitsap guess in there for us???

[jcmcgaffey]

Snowfall for Saturday night and Sunday per the WRF:

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_extended/images_d2/ww_snow24.132.0000.gif

This is kind of a side note.  I have seen that set up shown in the models in the past before where the western most points of the Seattle area are shown to get more precipitation than the rest of the lowland area but I don't think I have ever actually seen that verify.  I am not sure why the models come up that sort of situation.  It must be from convergence off of the Olympics but even with convergence coming off of the Olympics that usually carries through the rest of the lowlands and not just western points of seattle along the water.  Usually when I see that show up, I assume the model is whacked out a bit and not correct.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Using the experimental version of the HRRR... total snowfall through 9 a.m. tomorrow morning.

 

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_jet/2015122217/t1/acsnw_t1sfc_f24.png

way overdone. That shows Willamette Valley snow

[Deweydog]

So many maps...

[luvssnow_spokane]

Checking accuracy of the HRRR model... here is what it showed yesterday morning for total snowfall through yesterday evening.    I have no idea how well it does with snowfall predictions.   

 

 

Very accurate for my area also.. I got about a 1/2 inch that melted before 11pm...

[Bryant]

Seeing some mixed precip in Bellingham right now.

Chunky rain over by Bakerview Fred Meyers

[BLI snowman]

HRRR shows this to be a very quick event.   

 

Precip in Portland from 3-5 p.m. and then through Seattle from 6-8 p.m. and then its all over except for the onshore flow rain showers which go all night and all day tomorrow (except in the usually rain shadow locations like Seattle which will be pretty dry and windy tomorrow).

 

HRRR doesn't go out to Sunday 

[TT-SEA]

Drizzle ended here about an hour ago... leaving me with about 3-4 inches of concrete slop on the ground. 

 

Not sure if anyone agrees... but I much prefer to go below freezing with clear skies for little awhile after the snow stops falling.      

 

Fresh snow melts fast when it immediately goes to fog and drizzle.

[Randyc321]

Kitsap looks like .5-1 inch across Silverdale/Port Orchard/Grapeview areas... more (3-5) near the Olympics like Shelton/Hoodsport/Brinnon.

Thanks Hawkstwelve  

 

At this point a dusting would even be enjoyable.  The annoying part is when it falls while you are sleeping.

[BLI snowman]

It looks to me like the only places likely to see accumulating snow tonight will be north and east of Seattle, with the further north you are, the better your chances.

 

Even most of NW WA will likely be a hair too warm for anything accumulating. I think Fraser River Valley and Hood Canal locations are the only

[luvssnow_spokane]

Drizzle ended here about an hour ago... leaving me with about 3-4 inches of concrete slop on the ground. 

 

Not sure if anyone agrees... but I much prefer to go below freezing with clear skies for little awhile after the snow stops falling.      

 

Fresh snow melts fast when it immediately goes to fog and drizzle.

Bhwahahaha!!!! Like the odds of the every happening are high.         ... This is PNW!

[seattleweatherguy]

I'd say if your over 400 feet there is a 5 percent chance tonight

[FroYoBro]

Checking accuracy of the HRRR model... here is what it showed yesterday morning for total snowfall through yesterday evening.    I have no idea how well it does with snowfall predictions.   

 

 

I remember that this model does not do well with snow/rain situations. It is pretty good about painting where precipitation will be, but gets confused about the rain/snow line. 

[DareDuck]

Drizzle ended here about an hour ago... leaving me with about 3-4 inches of concrete slop on the ground.

 

Not sure if anyone agrees... but I much prefer to go below freezing with clear skies for little awhile after the snow stops falling.

 

Fresh snow melts fast when it immediately goes to fog and drizzle.

The last 3 storms here dropped 2-3" of snow followed an hour or two of light rain. Turns the snow into that slop you're talking about. Makes it a real pain to take the dogs out for a long walk.

[TT-SEA]

I remember that this model does not do well with snow/rain situations. It is pretty good about painting where precipitation will be, but gets confused about the rain/snow line. 

 

 

Well thankfully most of our events are cut and dry... no murky rain/snow issues around here!

[luvssnow_spokane]

12z Canadian/GEM total snow through Christmas afternoon, an inch or two of this falling within 24 hours in very few places.

I would take that..

[luvssnow_spokane]

This is a great example of the SWAMPness of where I live... It is amazing to me it is currently the warmest place in the state other than downtown seattle. amazing! lol

 

 

[HighlandExperience]

This is a great example of the SWAMPness of where I live... It is amazing to me it is currently the warmest place in the state other than downtown seattle. amazing! lol

 

Screen Shot 2015-12-22 at 12.51.27 PM.png

I wonder why that is always the case.

[mjb]

This is a great example of the SWAMPness of where I live... It is amazing to me it is currently the warmest place in the state other than downtown seattle. amazing! lol

 

Screen Shot 2015-12-22 at 12.51.27 PM.png

I thought THE SWAMP was down in the PuyallupJon valley? Don't you live up on the hill in Bonny Lake?

[luvssnow_spokane]

I thought THE SWAMP was down in the PuyallupJon valley? Don't you live up on the hill in Bonny Lake?

Yes, I do live in Bonney Lake...  But it seems we are affected by the same warm (SWAMP) trends. East winds also kill our snow chances. We get those and we warm up and dry out while others get hammered... Something about that area I have noticed since moving there in 2007.  

[paulstorm]

Operational HRRR (20Z) still not spitting out much below 1,000' save between Centralia and Longview.

 

[TT-SEA]

Operational HRRR (20Z) still not spitting out much below 1,000' save between Centralia and Longview.

capture.png

 

 

Going to be hard to get much.   Using the radar loop from that model... the precip starts here about 6:30 and is over by 8:00.   Then the rest is onshore flow rain showers.

[Jbolin]

Yes, I do live in Bonney Lake...  But it seems we are affected by the same warm (SWAMP) trends. East winds also kill our snow chances. We get those and we warm up and dry out while others get hammered... Something about that area I have noticed since moving there in 2007.  

Can you produce a map of the general area you live, I may have an aswer

[bainbridgekid]

Yes, I do live in Bonney Lake...  But it seems we are affected by the same warm (SWAMP) trends. East winds also kill our snow chances. We get those and we warm up and dry out while others get hammered... Something about that area I have noticed since moving there in 2007.  

I don't see how it can be that bad at almost 600 feet in Bonney Lake. You aren't far from Enumclaw and they get snow in quite a few situations.

 

Obviously the whole Kent/Puyallup/Tacoma/Bonney Lake area is no snow bonanza zone or anything, but I can't imagine you get much less than you'd expect in your general area.

 

Sometimes negativity makes it seem like you're getting screwed more than you really are. 

[bainbridgekid]

Amazingly, Buffalo NY just recorded their first snow of the year yesterday (0.1")

 

Latest ever first snow for them.

 

Not sure if it makes me feel better or worse about not seeing any snow myself. 

[luvssnow_spokane]

I don't see how it can be that bad at almost 600 feet in Bonney Lake. You aren't far from Enumclaw and they get snow in quite a few situations.

 

Obviously the whole Kent/Puyallup/Tacoma/Bonney Lake area is no snow bonanza zone or anything, but I can't imagine you get much less than you'd expect in your general area.

 

Sometimes negativity makes it seem like you're getting screwed more than you really are. 

Agreed, sometimes reality is perception and not truth... I get that. I am only sharing it as it is. NO, it is not as bad as living right by the sound but we do have some odd phenomenon when related to getting snow and cold. Kinda like TT was sharing how he gets east wind that keeps him cold. 

 

Is it possible I am perceiving it wrong? Absolutely! AS I have not done a deep seeded analysis but I have seen many cases where there outcome performs below the surrounding areas but I am sure we all feel that way sometimes.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Amazingly, Buffalo NY just recorded their first snow of the year yesterday (0.1")

 

Latest ever first snow for them.

 

Not sure if it makes me feel better or worse about not seeing any snow myself. 

I guess they were due.

[HighlandExperience]

[stuffradio]

When we first started this epic series of storms (in Octoberish), I was thinking to myself if there was any good easy way to store the water for use of watering vegetation in the summer. Sadly I don't know there is a cost effective way of storing water that can be stored for months and be safely used in the summer on food crops without having it somehow cleaned later on.

[Bryant]

What's with the lack of moisture in Whatcom County? Is it terrain related? Trajectory of the low? Honest question

 

 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

What's with the lack of moisture in Whatcom County? Is it terrain related? Trajectory of the low? Honest question

 

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_7.png

Down slope off the cascades from the low placement.

[TT-SEA]

Pretty obvious here this afternoon where the real freezing level is... and its way above us.  

 

http://s1.postimg.org/r2sfz3zfz/2015_12_22_14_29_22.jpg

[jcmcgaffey]

What's with the lack of moisture in Whatcom County? Is it terrain related? Trajectory of the low? Honest question

 

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_7.png

This may be out there and not correct but outside of the downsloping the model could be taking into consideration Mt Constitution creating a bit of a rain shadow.  Isn't that mountain almost 3K ft?  On the map you posted, it is directly in between the low and Whatcom county.  The rainshadow would change locations though as the low moves unless it is taking a direct path towards Whatcom county.

 

Edit: and the low pulling Frazier river outflow.

[Perturbed Member]

So GFS has been pretty consistent on that overrunning setup for Sunday in PDX, does anyone know what the Euro has been showing for that? I'm hoping there is agreement. 

 

I've got a good feeling about this Sunday. Cool air in place at the surface with some weak offshore gradient, not very cold but cold enough upper levels and enough precip for some fun. It is also late December which should favor us a little bit. 

[Guest Winterdog]

Hold on... the 12Z ECMWF also shows signifcant c-zone precip all night on Thursday from Seattle to Bellingham and it SHOULD be cold enough then.

 

And also significant precip that night east of I-5 in Oregon as well.

 

A fair number of people on here might wake up to a snowy Christmas morning!   

 

Bolded because I want credit for predicting it... and for being positive.  

It has to come from the heart or it doesn't count.

[Poulsbo Snowman]

What's with the lack of moisture in Whatcom County? Is it terrain related? Trajectory of the low? Honest question

 

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_7.png

Looks like the trajectory is causing some shadowing perhaps.  But we should be able to get some wraparound showers.