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December 2015 in the Pacific Northwest

stuffradio

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in West of the Rockies

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stuffradio Newbie

stuffradio

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Then here comes the arctic air, the GFS from run to run continues to be consistent in bringing in colder weather. Yesterday's 18z GFS was cold and today's run got even colder LOL.  :D

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20151209/18Z/f288/850mbtempconus.png

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20151209/18Z/f360/850mbtempconus.png

I just got drunk on this 18z.

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MR.SNOWMIZER
MR.SNOWMIZER

I now have a complete solar system i assembled. Total cost was 1700. I have 2500 watts of clean energy. Pretty cool to have a remote location and walk in and turn on the tv and lights and know its all

Bryant
Bryant

Since no one else seems to want to answer, yes, the new 12z is a bit colder at 240 hours. It's not a big change however, and it's also 240 hours out so not worth sweating over. For future reference, o

snow_wizard
snow_wizard

I just signed up for Weather Bell to help navigate through what will hopefully be a fun period coming up.

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luvssnow_spokane Community Regular

luvssnow_spokane

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Overall, I feel this run is as good as yesterdays 18z. Maybe a smudge warmer at the beginning but colder in the long run. I do feel larger scale placement of things evolve better in this run. The really smart folks on here can correct me as I am just a novice.  :)

My Weather Station

https://tempestwx.com/station/61434

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SilverFallsAndrew Grand Master

SilverFallsAndrew

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According to the 18z GFS I will be returning home on Christmas day to arctic landscape. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Guest Winterdog

Guest Winterdog

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Another 18Z for the archives.  Crazy model.  You know it would be boring if these models correctly predicted what's coming so I'm thankful for bi-polar models like our beloved 18Z.  Also, without it what would Tim have to throw cold water on?

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Deweydog Grand Master

Deweydog

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Overall, I feel this run is as good as yesterdays 18z. Maybe a smidge warmer at the beginning but I feel larger scale placement of things evolve better. The really smart folks on here can correct me as I am just a novice.  :)

 

The analysis is fun, but rather pointless.  Cooler and progressive is the theme starting this weekend.  Pretty simple stuff.  Whether the pattern goes meridional beyond that and how that would evolve is just noise at this point.  Euro is king!

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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Deweydog Grand Master

Deweydog

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Well... the 18Z GFS will soothe anxiety for this evening and we should get a pile of posts declaring that it's going to happen!

 

Jim, Jim, JImmity, Jim Jim.  Jimmer jammer Jim, Jim, Jim.  

 

I wonder what he's wearing right now...

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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Guest Winterdog

Guest Winterdog

Posted
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Deweydog, on 09 Dec 2015 - 3:18 PM, said:

Jim, Jim, JImmity, Jim Jim.  Jimmer jammer Jim, Jim, Jim.  

 

I wonder what he's wearing right now...

Don't know right now but later I'm sure he will be wearing on Tim's nerves.

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luvssnow_spokane Community Regular

luvssnow_spokane

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The analysis is fun, but rather pointless.  Cooler and progressive is the theme starting this weekend.  Pretty simple stuff.  Whether the pattern goes meridional beyond that and how that would evolve is just noise at this point.  Euro is king!

That is exactly what all the mets say... 

My Weather Station

https://tempestwx.com/station/61434

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

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The analysis is fun, but rather pointless.  Cooler and progressive is the theme starting this weekend.  Pretty simple stuff.  Whether the pattern goes meridional beyond that and how that would evolve is just noise at this point.  Euro is king!

 

 

Please tell that to Jim!!   

 

Jim Jim Jim Jim   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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MossMan Grand Master

MossMan

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Snow by the 3rd week of December lasting into Christmas...you heard it here first!

Wouldn't it be something if my highly technical prediction actually came to be!

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

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Some people find fun in the analysis and it isn't your place to take that away from them.

 

 

I know.  I know.   

 

Not taking it away but rather saying to analyze all models and not just the best one.    But I have been barking up that tree for a decade!    Who is the dumb one??       :lol:

 

If only we all had the objectivity of Matt!   And if only he interjected some reality (as he did above) more often to ground the discussion.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Guest Winterdog

Guest Winterdog

Posted
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TT-SEA, on 09 Dec 2015 - 3:56 PM, said:

I know.  I know.   

 

Not taking it away but rather saying to analyze all models and not just the best one.    But I have been barking up that tree for a decade!    Who is the dumb one??       :lol:

 

If only we all had the objectivity of Matt!   And if only he interjected some reality (as he did above) more often to ground the discussion.  

Do you really think any of us ignore the other models?  Alas, I can only dream of having the objectivity of Matt.

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

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Do you really think any of us ignore the other models?  Alas, I can only dream of having the objectivity of Matt.

 

 

I know... the guy becomes just as big of a weenie as all of us when something is actually happening.   But for the rest of the time (99% or more)... he is the objectivity king of the forum.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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IbrChris Newbie

IbrChris

Posted
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How about that 18z?!? 16/12 on Christmas Eve...mark it down.

In other news chilly 12z Euro...last day is 38 for a high at PDX. Trace of snow.

I'm thinking a cool period for 3-4 days around the 18th-21st then warmer and wetter again as we get closer to Christmas.

The Pacific Northwest: Where storms go to die.

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Gradient Keeper Grand Master

Gradient Keeper

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Posted

12z EC ENS 500mb better looking than the operational. 18z, oh you drunken bastard. It's clear why this run is so cold. The 2 key Bering lows from HR 96-110, HR 144-156 I've highlighted in my analysis develop as other models show, but take a slightly further west track towards Shemya and curl north moving towards the Siberian Coast. This is similar to yesterdays 18z/00z. Bering low #2 is deeper and as well tracks well nearly the same path low #1 takes. Each time the ridge reorganizes, builds, amplifies all hinges on that. Where as this run is an outlier for sure, it isn't impossible at the same time. It all depends on how models handle those lows.

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Deweydog Grand Master

Deweydog

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I-5 north closed just north of Woodland. I was driving through that area today and commented that I got the chills right there because it seems everything was so primed to slide. 4 hours later it did. Scary!

 

http://www.kptv.com/story/30710028/mud-and-rock-slide-closes-nb-i-5-near-woodland

 

February 1996 revisited.  

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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snow_wizard Grand Master

snow_wizard

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Let's not forget the 12z was also very good.  The WRF shows widespread lowland snow in the almost believeable range now.

 

As I've said there's a lot more than the GFS pointing to a good cold wave coming up.  The groundwork has been laid.  I have decent confidence in the cold snap being shown in the short term (this weekend through mid next week), but beyond that a bigger cold snap may take a little longer to evolve than what the GFS shows and it might happen as progged.  All I can say is this is a good window of opportunity for us.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 50

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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snow_wizard Grand Master

snow_wizard

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Interesting to note the ECMWF ensemble shows below normal heights over the NW and above normal heights over the GOA through day 15.  FWIW the ECMWF control model is almost identical to the GFS through day 10.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 50

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Deweydog Grand Master

Deweydog

Posted
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[Model Countdown]

00z NAM is running

Next up.................

*00z GFS in 1 hour 10 minutes

00z GEM in 2 hours 50 minutes

Tonight.....

00z ECMWF in 3 hours 32 minutes

 

I'll feel A LOT better about the proposition of goodies to come when those times start to come into agreement.  

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

Posted
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Let's not forget the 12z was also very good. The WRF shows widespread lowland snow in the almost believeable range now.

 

As I've said there's a lot more than the GFS pointing to a good cold wave coming up. The groundwork has been laid. I have decent confidence in the cold snap being shown in the short term (this weekend through mid next week), but beyond that a bigger cold snap may take a little longer to evolve than what the GFS shows and it might happen as progged. All I can say is this is a good window of opportunity for us.

ECMWF shows a solid chilly period next week and has for many runs. Just not too exciting. You are talking like the ECMWF shows 60 degrees again.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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snow_wizard Grand Master

snow_wizard

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That squall last night was 100% impressive!  It appears SEA had gusts over 50mph for several minutes.  Where I live the wind was absolutley crazy for about 10 minutes.  There are large branches from some of our trees strewn several hundred feet down the street.  We had several 2" to 3.5" diameter branches come crashing down in our yard one of which nearly tore the gutter off the house.  Ironically a cheaply made flimsy lighted reindeer in our front yard escaped injury while being surrounded by a number of  50 to 100 pound tree branches.  After all of that there were numerous lightning flashes right around sunrise.  My wife said one of them was a spectacular bolt.

 

To say the least this has been a very impressive Nino winter so far.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 50

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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