Money Posted December 28, 2015 Report Share Posted December 28, 2015 Shows some places in N. IL with freezing rain for 5-6+ hours. That's not good. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 28, 2015 Report Share Posted December 28, 2015 8 inches of sleet holy cow! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 28, 2015 Report Share Posted December 28, 2015 Shows some places in N. IL with freezing rain for 5-6+ hours. That's not good.Only thing that might save them its gonna rain so hard accretion might be hard Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 28, 2015 Report Share Posted December 28, 2015 When does this become more now casting than looking at models? I would after midnight. Except maybe keep on looking at the RAP and HRRR for awhile yet.. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted December 28, 2015 Report Share Posted December 28, 2015 It's currently 10 degrees in Columbus and the NWS is predicting a low of 8. I don't recall seeing this amount of cold air a couple of days ago. It will not take much to fluff up snow totals tomorrow, that really is my only hope of seeing anything significant.I'm just hoping things can hold serve and I'll gladly take 3-5" maybe more if things come together just right..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 28, 2015 Report Share Posted December 28, 2015 I like how the HRRR actually has soundings available now. Here is Madison's sounding at HR 18 Snow, just. Milwaukee: Sleet. Not very warm at 700mb. Thanks for posting the RGEM maps Money. Almost all frozen up to the dry slot here. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 28, 2015 Report Share Posted December 28, 2015 No problem. Cobb Data for NAM is in. 19.9 for krst with temps never getting above 25.0 F 1.78 QPF For Oshkosh it has 1.39 QPF. 5.5 IN of snow and over 1.5 in of Sleet Madison: 3.6 IN snow: 1.66 QPF the rest sleet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 28, 2015 Report Share Posted December 28, 2015 KORD: 151228/1300Z 13 07018KT 31.4F ZRPL 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.01|| 0.010 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.01|| 0.01 0| 21| 79151228/1400Z 14 08019KT 31.0F ZRPL 0:1| 0.0|| 0.04|| 0.03|| 0.044 0:1| 0.0|| 0.04|| 0.03|| 0.05 0| 45| 55151228/1500Z 15 07021KT 30.6F ZRPL 0:1| 0.0|| 0.06|| 0.10|| 0.120 0:1| 0.0|| 0.10|| 0.13|| 0.17 0| 23| 77151228/1600Z 16 07020KT 31.2F ZRPL 0:1| 0.0|| 0.08|| 0.14|| 0.170 0:1| 0.0|| 0.18|| 0.27|| 0.34 0| 23| 77151228/1700Z 17 07018KT 31.5F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.17|| 0.167 0:1| 0.0|| 0.18|| 0.44|| 0.51 0| 5| 95151228/1800Z 18 07019KT 32.1F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.083 0:1| 0.0|| 0.18|| 0.44|| 0.59 0| 0|100 KCID: 0.72 QPF FZR, 1.48 QPF Sleet, 3.2 IN SN Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted December 28, 2015 Report Share Posted December 28, 2015 So how exactly do inches of sleet add up? Like how much QPF equals an inch of sleep? I've never really dealt with this much before.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 28, 2015 Report Share Posted December 28, 2015 So how exactly do inches of sleet add up? Like how much QPF equals an inch of sleep? I've never really dealt with this much before.. 3:1 Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 28, 2015 Report Share Posted December 28, 2015 So how exactly do inches of sleet add up? Like how much QPF equals an inch of sleep? I've never really dealt with this much before..3:1 is a good starting point Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted December 28, 2015 Report Share Posted December 28, 2015 Bleh. Boring. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted December 28, 2015 Report Share Posted December 28, 2015 HRRR needs to throw out the sleet Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 28, 2015 Report Share Posted December 28, 2015 Looks like the surface low pressure is just SW of Shreveport. On the verge of crossing into LA. Wish this storm was just straight snow or rain. Tracking a rain/snow line is one thing, but trying to track a snow/sleet line, sleet/freezing rain line, and a freezing rain/rain line is complicated. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 28, 2015 Report Share Posted December 28, 2015 12+ amounts showing up in SW WI on gfs Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted December 28, 2015 Report Share Posted December 28, 2015 yup, appears to have backed off on sleet Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 28, 2015 Report Share Posted December 28, 2015 Looks like the surface low pressure is just SW of Shreveport. Wish this storm was just straight snow or rain. Tracking a rain/snow line is one thing, but trying to track a snow/sleet line, sleet/freezing rain line, and a freezing rain/rain line is complicated.The writing seems to on the wall for the way left tracks of old nam/euro runs. Only question is the trajectory of the low once into mo/il and thermals... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thomas9824 Posted December 28, 2015 Report Share Posted December 28, 2015 The precip shield is currently just south of kc metropolitan area. Let us know what happens all the kc members out there! Just freezing rain mixed with sleet right now in kc Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 28, 2015 Report Share Posted December 28, 2015 Tracks right over Chicago again just like rgem Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 28, 2015 Report Share Posted December 28, 2015 12+ amounts showing up in SW WI on gfsI cant imagine having to write a forecast for madison Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 28, 2015 Report Share Posted December 28, 2015 12+ amounts showing up in SW WI on gfsI think you are golden money. People south of you are just going to have to wait to see what falls out of the sky Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 28, 2015 Report Share Posted December 28, 2015 I cant imagine having to write a forecast for madisonThe amount of qpf forecasted is insane and their will be some crazy amounts if places stay all snow Rgem spitting out 1.25 qpf of fzr in NW IL Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 28, 2015 Report Share Posted December 28, 2015 The amount of qpf forecasted is insane and their will be some crazy amounts if places stay all snow Rgem spitting out 1.25 qpf of fzr in NW ILBeen a long time since we have had a good cutter to track... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted December 28, 2015 Report Share Posted December 28, 2015 Go GFS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted December 28, 2015 Report Share Posted December 28, 2015 im team GFS too Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 28, 2015 Report Share Posted December 28, 2015 Been a long time since we have had a good cutter to track...Seriously though what would you do if you were mke and had to forecast this? Stays mostly snow and you are looking at 12+ in some places with 40 mph gusts. Stays mostly sleet and it's just a few inches of snow Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 28, 2015 Report Share Posted December 28, 2015 I cant imagine having to write a forecast for madison I know - what do you say to the people!? Anywhere between 2-15" of snow and/or sleet and maybe some freezing rain or just snow...GFS bulls eye with the snowfall over Galena, IL. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildWisconsinWeather Posted December 28, 2015 Report Share Posted December 28, 2015 Seriously though what would you do if you were mke and had to forecast this? Stays mostly snow and you are looking at 12+ in some places with 40 mph gusts. Stays mostly sleet and it's just a few inches of snow You stay with Winter Storm Warnings due to uncertainty but upgrade to Blizzard Warnings if it's needed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 28, 2015 Report Share Posted December 28, 2015 I wouldn't blame them if they said 2-15 inches of snow lol Rgem has over 1.25 qpf snow and 0.25-0.50 qpf sleet on south central WI Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 28, 2015 Report Share Posted December 28, 2015 The writing seems to on the wall for the way left tracks of old nam/euro runs. Only question is the trajectory of the low once into mo/il and thermals... The GFS low pressure at midnight is NNW of where the center of the low is now. So unless the low backs up a little and then north, GFS is slightly too far west. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WBadgersW Posted December 28, 2015 Report Share Posted December 28, 2015 Man, this snow/mix line tomorrow is going to be killer. Whoever are just North of it might get surprised. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 28, 2015 Report Share Posted December 28, 2015 Seriously though what would you do if you were mke and had to forecast this? Stays mostly snow and you are looking at 12+ in some places with 40 mph gusts. Stays mostly sleet and it's just a few inches of snowI have no clue really. They have to be pulling there hair out. I have no idea what is going to happen. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ToastedRavs Posted December 28, 2015 Report Share Posted December 28, 2015 So many conflicting models. Like the hrrr, hate the GFS, hate the NAM, love the NAM, like the UK... Etc....holy good gracious... Just hurry up and arrive so we can all stop looking at models and enjoy whatever comes our way. Ugh! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 28, 2015 Report Share Posted December 28, 2015 The GFS low pressure at midnight is NNW of where the center of the low is now. So unless the low backs up a little and then north, GFS is slightly too far west.Wasnt the NAM showing this wobble? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 28, 2015 Report Share Posted December 28, 2015 I have no clue really. They have to be pulling there hair out. I have no idea what is going to happen.You know the average joe is going to ***** either way no matter what happens not knowing how hard this job actually is with storms like these Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NH4NU Posted December 28, 2015 Report Share Posted December 28, 2015 Flowers says latest short range models bring significant dry air into central Iowa. Link to video for explanation https://www.facebook.com/JimFlowersKmtvMeteorologist/?fref=nf Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 28, 2015 Report Share Posted December 28, 2015 You know the average joe is going to ***** either way no matter what happens not knowing how hard this job actually is with storms like theseYep Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildWisconsinWeather Posted December 28, 2015 Report Share Posted December 28, 2015 Man, this snow/mix line tomorrow is going to be killer. Whoever are just North of it might get surprised. Do you remember February 20, 2011's storm? That was a nailbiter where I94 was the dividing line between snow and mixed precipitation, with rain just south of that I believe. Maybe that's a best case scenario where we luck out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 28, 2015 Report Share Posted December 28, 2015 I know some of this is sleet, but geezzz. 1 Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ToastedRavs Posted December 28, 2015 Report Share Posted December 28, 2015 Flowers says latest short range models bring significant dry air into central Iowa. Link to video for explanation https://www.facebook.com/JimFlowersKmtvMeteorologist/?fref=nf I saw that. He used the 0z run. The 1z doesn't bring it in. Ugh...it's crazy how things switch...hour to hour. I think I am on to now casting after the Euro. Good luck over there...enjoy it! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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